Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    How many quality starts Lester have? All but one, right.?

     




    Quality starts are a joke

     

     

     

    Not really.  It is one way of discounting the outliers.  If someone has a horrible outing, say 11 ERs in 3 IPs, his overall ERA will stink, but if he has a QS in all other starts, then he has done a good job.



    I would not consider an ERA of 4.50 as "quality". And yes, the sample size for Lester this year is small. Thats why his velocity-and his ERA-are not as reliable as last year's results. He has lost velocity year to year for many years in a row now.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to trantor's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    How many quality starts Lester have? All but one, right.?

     




    Quality starts are a joke

     

     

     

    Not really.  It is one way of discounting the outliers.  If someone has a horrible outing, say 11 ERs in 3 IPs, his overall ERA will stink, but if he has a QS in all other starts, then he has done a good job.

     



    I would not consider an ERA of 4.50 as "quality". And yes, the sample size for Lester this year is small. Thats why his velocity-and his ERA-are not as reliable as last year's results. He has lost velocity year to year for many years in a row now.

     

     



    You cleverly ignored my last question. you say that this season's sample size is inadequate and yet your OP chooses a 3 game sample size. Cherry picking? I say YES. Trolling ? YES again.

     



    Where did I do that? I know a three game sample size is not large enough; neither is a 7 game sample size. Look at last year

     

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to trantor's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    How many quality starts Lester have? All but one, right.?

     




    Quality starts are a joke

     

     

     

    Not really.  It is one way of discounting the outliers.  If someone has a horrible outing, say 11 ERs in 3 IPs, his overall ERA will stink, but if he has a QS in all other starts, then he has done a good job.

     



    I would not consider an ERA of 4.50 as "quality". And yes, the sample size for Lester this year is small. Thats why his velocity-and his ERA-are not as reliable as last year's results. He has lost velocity year to year for many years in a row now.

     

     



    You cleverly ignored my last question. you say that this season's sample size is inadequate and yet your OP chooses a 3 game sample size. Cherry picking? I say YES. Trolling ? YES again.

     

     



    Where did I do that? I know a three game sample size is not large enough; neither is a 7 game sample size. Look at last year

     

     

     



    Yet you started this thread? Do you have memory problems or is it just logic?

     



    Which part of my OP is not true. If its all true, its time for you to admit it and, if you disagree, present your own statistics. Or admit that you are a fool.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    Pumpsie, you're arguing with Pike now (trantor).

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RSF4Life234. Show RSF4Life234's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    How many quality starts Lester have? All but one, right.?

     




    Quality starts are a joke

     



    Quality starts win games, and many times a ring if your staff is that consistent.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    How many quality starts Lester have? All but one, right.?

     




    Quality starts are a joke

     

     

     

    Not really.  It is one way of discounting the outliers.  If someone has a horrible outing, say 11 ERs in 3 IPs, his overall ERA will stink, but if he has a QS in all other starts, then he has done a good job.

     



    I would not consider an ERA of 4.50 as "quality". And yes, the sample size for Lester this year is small. Thats why his velocity-and his ERA-are not as reliable as last year's results. He has lost velocity year to year for many years in a row now.

     

     



    You cleverly ignored my last question. you say that this season's sample size is inadequate and yet your OP chooses a 3 game sample size. Cherry picking? I say YES. Trolling ? YES again.

     

     



    Where did I do that? I know a three game sample size is not large enough; neither is a 7 game sample size. Look at last year

     

     

     



    Yet you started this thread? Do you have memory problems or is it just logic?

     

     



    Which part of my OP is not true. If its all true, its time for you to admit it and, if you disagree, present your own statistics. Or admit that you are a fool.

     




    Steven Drew's BA was .800 last night!

    Good enough ffor the All-star game and MVP!

     

    The above statement is true.

    It's also stupid.

    See how that works?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    How many quality starts Lester have? All but one, right.?

     




    Quality starts are a joke

     

     

     

    Not really.  It is one way of discounting the outliers.  If someone has a horrible outing, say 11 ERs in 3 IPs, his overall ERA will stink, but if he has a QS in all other starts, then he has done a good job.

     



    I would not consider an ERA of 4.50 as "quality". And yes, the sample size for Lester this year is small. Thats why his velocity-and his ERA-are not as reliable as last year's results. He has lost velocity year to year for many years in a row now.

     

     



    You cleverly ignored my last question. you say that this season's sample size is inadequate and yet your OP chooses a 3 game sample size. Cherry picking? I say YES. Trolling ? YES again.

     

     



    Where did I do that? I know a three game sample size is not large enough; neither is a 7 game sample size. Look at last year

     

     

     



    Yet you started this thread? Do you have memory problems or is it just logic?

     

     



    Which part of my OP is not true. If its all true, its time for you to admit it and, if you disagree, present your own statistics. Or admit that you are a fool.

     

     




    Steven Drew's BA was .800 last night!

     

    Good enough ffor the All-star game and MVP!

     

    The above statement is true.

    It's also stupid.

    See how that works?



    You know what? You are absolutely right! Lets use last year as a guide for what to expect from Lester and just forget about all of his games this year. Last year his ERA was 4.82 and his velocity dipped from the previous year. See how THAT works?

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

     



    Which part of my OP is not true. If its all true, its time for you to admit it and, if you disagree, present your own statistics. Or admit that you are a fool.

     

     

    Steven Drew's BA was .800 last night!

     Good enough ffor the All-star game and MVP!

     The above statement is true.

    It's also stupid.

    See how that works?

     



    You know what? You are absolutely right! Lets use last year as a guide for what to expect from Lester and just forget about all of his games this year. Last year his ERA was 4.82 and his velocity dipped from the previous year. See how THAT works?

     

     


    Go right ahead.

     

    It'll be fun watching you repeat it all summer, as he racks up more wins.

     
  18. This post has been removed.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

     

     


    Which part of my OP is not true. If its all true, its time for you to admit it and, if you disagree, present your own statistics. Or admit that you are a fool.

     

     

    Steven Drew's BA was .800 last night!

     Good enough ffor the All-star game and MVP!

     The above statement is true.

    It's also stupid.

    See how that works?

     



    You know what? You are absolutely right! Lets use last year as a guide for what to expect from Lester and just forget about all of his games this year. Last year his ERA was 4.82 and his velocity dipped from the previous year. See how THAT works?

     

     


    Go right ahead.

     

    It'll be fun watching you repeat it all summer, as he racks up more wins.



    Nothing would please me more than to see Lester "rack up the wins"-or better yet, lower his ERA by a RPG compared to last year. I do not see that happening, but if it does, and he and Bucky can stay healthy, we could even be competitive for a playoffs spot this year.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

     

     


    Which part of my OP is not true. If its all true, its time for you to admit it and, if you disagree, present your own statistics. Or admit that you are a fool.

     

     

    Steven Drew's BA was .800 last night!

     Good enough ffor the All-star game and MVP!

     The above statement is true.

    It's also stupid.

    See how that works?

     



    You know what? You are absolutely right! Lets use last year as a guide for what to expect from Lester and just forget about all of his games this year. Last year his ERA was 4.82 and his velocity dipped from the previous year. See how THAT works?

     

     


    Go right ahead.

     

    It'll be fun watching you repeat it all summer, as he racks up more wins.

     



    Nothing would please me more than to see Lester "rack up the wins"-or better yet, lower his ERA by a RPG compared to last year. I do not see that happening, but if it does, and he and Bucky can stay healthy, we could even be competitive for a playoffs spot this year.

     




    I don't see how that's possible.

    After one 3 game sweep, you pronounced the team "mediocre"...again.

     

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

     

     


    Which part of my OP is not true. If its all true, its time for you to admit it and, if you disagree, present your own statistics. Or admit that you are a fool.

     

     

    Steven Drew's BA was .800 last night!

     Good enough ffor the All-star game and MVP!

     The above statement is true.

    It's also stupid.

    See how that works?

     



    You know what? You are absolutely right! Lets use last year as a guide for what to expect from Lester and just forget about all of his games this year. Last year his ERA was 4.82 and his velocity dipped from the previous year. See how THAT works?

     

     


    Go right ahead.

     

    It'll be fun watching you repeat it all summer, as he racks up more wins.

     



    Nothing would please me more than to see Lester "rack up the wins"-or better yet, lower his ERA by a RPG compared to last year. I do not see that happening, but if it does, and he and Bucky can stay healthy, we could even be competitive for a playoffs spot this year.

     

     




    I don't see how that's possible.

     

    After one 3 game sweep, you pronounced the team "mediocre"...again.

     

     




    Nope. I said the team is the best team in baseball, since, as I also said, you are what your record says you are. You should pay attention! I believe the talent level on this team is mediocre and that they have overachieved so far and that I am sticking with my prediction that come September they will be roughly a .500 team.

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Nope. I said the team is the best team in baseball, since, as I also said, you are what your record says you are. You should pay attention! I believe the talent level on this team is mediocre and that they have overachieved so far and that I am sticking with my prediction that come September they will be roughly a .500 team.

     

     



     

     

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    To put it simply, they are a better team right now. Mediocre teams tend to struggle against good teams.

     




    How does a mediocre team have a 20-11 record?

     

     

    Funny. You are right. We are the best team in baseball, right? I guess I am thinking that this team has played over their heads so far and will, in the end, be mediocre, finishing at roughly the .500 mark. Furthermore, the discussion was about how we "always" struggle in Texas (ie the last several years). Without looking up our record there I assume this is true. It sure seems that way. And certainly last year we were not even mediocre, and the Rangers were very good 

    ============================================

     

    Reads like sarcasm to me. 

    So, "you are what your record says you are", but you're thinking they're playing over their heads? 

    Or is it "you are what your record says you are", unless you're the Sox. Then, it's just smoke and mirrors... 

    Sitting on that fence must be painful!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Nope. I said the team is the best team in baseball, since, as I also said, you are what your record says you are. You should pay attention! I believe the talent level on this team is mediocre and that they have overachieved so far and that I am sticking with my prediction that come September they will be roughly a .500 team.

     

     



     

     

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    To put it simply, they are a better team right now. Mediocre teams tend to struggle against good teams.

     




    How does a mediocre team have a 20-11 record?

     

     

    Funny. You are right. We are the best team in baseball, right? I guess I am thinking that this team has played over their heads so far and will, in the end, be mediocre, finishing at roughly the .500 mark. Furthermore, the discussion was about how we "always" struggle in Texas (ie the last several years). Without looking up our record there I assume this is true. It sure seems that way. And certainly last year we were not even mediocre, and the Rangers were very good 

    ============================================

     

    Reads like sarcasm to me. 

    So, "you are what your record says you are", but you're thinking they're playing over their heads? 

    Or is it "you are what your record says you are", unless you're the Sox. Then, it's just smoke and mirrors... 

    Sitting on that fence must be painful!




    This is a team with mediocre talent. They were picked to finish no better than third by most experts at the beginning of the season for a reason, a reason that seems to escape you. But fortunately I can enlighten you: they are just not that talented!

    Hey-I like the good start as much as everyone here, but look where they finished last year: dead last place with a team ERA that was 12th in the AL. Finishing at .500 this year is a big achievement, and its probably realistic, given the talent level on the team. More than that is wishful thinking.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    If you want to look at a recent large sample size, it's worth nothing that in the last two months last year (12 starts), his ERA was 3.76. Someone can call it cherry-picking of course, but I'm not eliminating any start during that span. 

    So if you look at what they say his troubles were -- mechanics -- then it's reasonable to say that once he got a handle on his mechanics, he started to trend back to the Lester of 2008-2011.

    And although I usually don't like combining stats from one season to the next, others often do. So if you look at his last 19 starts, Lester's ERA is 3.59. That's a pretty good sample size, so that's why I feel good about Lester going forward.

     

     

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