Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to TV-Guy's comment:

    Is BDC awarding points, giving out prizes, offering free subscriptions  to those who predict how many games the team will win this year. Why is the Pumpsie so concerned with telling everyone that at best they are a .500 team. Why should his ego and self-worth be dependent on this? Why should he care, why shoild we care about what he thinks.  Each fan has the right to be as optimistic or pessimistic as he wishes to be. Keep it internalized and don't push it onto others. Enjoy being a fan, hate being a fan, be apathetic, or non-committal. Just don't come here to annoy others.



    Here here.  With utmost respect, may I ask you to heed your own sage advice?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to TV-Guy's comment:

    Is BDC awarding points, giving out prizes, offering free subscriptions  to those who predict how many games the team will win this year. Why is the Pumpsie so concerned with telling everyone that at best they are a .500 team. Why should his ego and self-worth be dependent on this? Why should he care, why shoild we care about what he thinks.  Each fan has the right to be as optimistic or pessimistic as he wishes to be. Keep it internalized and don't push it onto others. Enjoy being a fan, hate being a fan, be apathetic, or non-committal. Just don't come here to annoy others.




    How many times have you been told how much you annoy others Pike? You can't even do it with one username. You have to post under several usernames to further propagate your irritating diatribe. How many times have you been banned here? Why do you think that is? Get a grip Pike. If you want to see one of the most irritating posters here look in the mirror.

     
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    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    I've never seen so much angst over a 6 IP, 3 ER performance from a guy with a 3.30 ERA.

     
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    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Nope. I said the team is the best team in baseball, since, as I also said, you are what your record says you are. You should pay attention! I believe the talent level on this team is mediocre and that they have overachieved so far and that I am sticking with my prediction that come September they will be roughly a .500 team.

     

     



     

     

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    To put it simply, they are a better team right now. Mediocre teams tend to struggle against good teams.

     




    How does a mediocre team have a 20-11 record?

     

     

    Funny. You are right. We are the best team in baseball, right? I guess I am thinking that this team has played over their heads so far and will, in the end, be mediocre, finishing at roughly the .500 mark. Furthermore, the discussion was about how we "always" struggle in Texas (ie the last several years). Without looking up our record there I assume this is true. It sure seems that way. And certainly last year we were not even mediocre, and the Rangers were very good 

    ============================================

     

    Reads like sarcasm to me. 

    So, "you are what your record says you are", but you're thinking they're playing over their heads? 

    Or is it "you are what your record says you are", unless you're the Sox. Then, it's just smoke and mirrors... 

    Sitting on that fence must be painful!

     




    This is a team with mediocre talent. They were picked to finish no better than third by most experts at the beginning of the season for a reason, a reason that seems to escape you. But fortunately I can enlighten you: they are just not that talented!

     

    Hey-I like the good start as much as everyone here, but look where they finished last year: dead last place with a team ERA that was 12th in the AL. Finishing at .500 this year is a big achievement, and its probably realistic, given the talent level on the team. More than that is wishful thinking.

    The Red Sox are not mediocre! This team has premier talent throughout the roster that had question marks about their ability to jell as a team. Starting with a new manager who has an unproven track record all the way to a slugger whose health was in question. Let’s take a look;

     

    John Farrell: At times shows his inexperience dealing with in game situations but has shown the ability to make the right call more often than not. As a former pitching coach his knowledge can only enhance what I believe will be the strong point of the team, their pitching staff!

     

    David Ortiz: In just a couple of weeks has proven that he can be the force in the middle of the lineup that will make others teams game plan around him giving others in the lineup better opportunities at the plate.

     

    Shane Victorino: A player in the mold of Dwight Evans who will become a fan favorite no matter what the Sox’s pay him. He plays right field with a vengeance, and hits well in the clutch. This is my dark horse player to emerge into a cult leader of the Fenway faithful.

     

    Mike Napoli: I predict that his accomplishments at the plate will put him up with Mike Lowell in the eyes of Boston fan and the team will pony up an ungodly sum for next year that will give Softlaw a heart attack.

     

    Ryan Dempster: Will continue to amaze all those who thought he was washed up and win 12-15 games. His determination will rub off on the younger pitchers forming the rotation into a top five in the league.

     

    Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buckholtz, and Felix Droubront will all settle in and give the team a chance to win in at lease 90% of the games, which will lead to a 92 win season. Nobody will want to play them because there is no quit in this team,

     

    For those who like to moan and groan, they will have to wait for another season to be happy.

     

      



     
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    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    How many times have you been told how much you annoy others Pike? You can't even do it with one username. You have to post under several usernames to further propagate your irritating diatribe. How many times have you been banned here? Why do you think that is? Get a grip Pike. If you want to see one of the most irritating posters here look in the mirror.



    If there's one thing I think I've finally learned it's not to interact with Pike.  You will get more satisfaction interacting with a brick wall.

    It would be pretty funny if everyone ignored him and just let his posts flap in the breeze. 

     
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    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Lester is better than most, and not a giant long term contract.

    Now, Tim Wastefield is out of the woods, and kicked to the curb, screaming all the way.



    They should hook you up to a chair and give you a little zap everytime you even think of Tim Wakefield. It's been two years since he last threw a pitch LET IT GO

     
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    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    OP attack on Lester is unmerited.  Plus I really disagree with the image of "not out of the woods" because I didn't think he was in the woods.  That said, I disagree with his reluctance to use the changeup.  He relies too much on his variations on the fastball which are too hittable when not mixed in with effective breaking balls. 

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    How many times have you been told how much you annoy others Pike? You can't even do it with one username. You have to post under several usernames to further propagate your irritating diatribe. How many times have you been banned here? Why do you think that is? Get a grip Pike. If you want to see one of the most irritating posters here look in the mirror.

     



    If there's one thing I think I've finally learned it's not to interact with Pike.  You will get more satisfaction interacting with a brick wall.

     

    It would be pretty funny if everyone ignored him and just let his posts flap in the breeze. 



    I have a lot of practice interacting with toddlers. Pike fits right in.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    OP attack on Lester is unmerited.  Plus I really disagree with the image of "not out of the woods" because I didn't think he was in the woods.  That said, I disagree with his reluctance to use the changeup.  He relies too much on his variations on the fastball which are too hittable when not mixed in with effective breaking balls. 




    His ERA was 4.82 last year, a year in which his annual velocity drops continued. IMO thats definitely being in the woods.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    You keep referencing his last year, which happen to be his worst. Every player has a down year. Ive heard your arguement for the best way to tell what they are is their last year. I dont buy that. Last year was an outlier. What about the 4 years prior? Do they not mean anything now or does it not fit your arguement?

    Im not saying hes an ace, but Im certainly not saying hes mediocre. Hes a TOTR starter (#1 or #2)

    Its the same thing when some here look at Drews last 2 years and say hes not good. Drew was hurt. Lester had 3 pitching coaches in 2 years, a manager change, and got into some bad habits with his mechanics, which might have had something to do woith the loss in velocity you say he had. he looks more like 2010, than 2012 without a doubt.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    You keep referencing his last year, which happen to be his worst. Every player has a down year. Ive heard your arguement for the best way to tell what they are is their last year. I dont buy that. Last year was an outlier. What about the 4 years prior? Do they not mean anything now or does it not fit your arguement?

    Im not saying hes an ace, but Im certainly not saying hes mediocre. Hes a TOTR starter (#1 or #2)

    Its the same thing when some here look at Drews last 2 years and say hes not good. Drew was hurt. Lester had 3 pitching coaches in 2 years, a manager change, and got into some bad habits with his mechanics. he looks more like 2010, than 2012 without a doubt.



    His velocity is down from 2010. The only way to tell for sure what kind of a pitcher he is this year is to look at his stats in October. I say closer to a #3 than a #1-and with an ERA of about 4.20. Lester was not injured last year and still had a bad year. Valentine didn't help, but pros should be able to overcome that.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    You keep referencing his last year, which happen to be his worst. Every player has a down year. Ive heard your arguement for the best way to tell what they are is their last year. I dont buy that. Last year was an outlier. What about the 4 years prior? Do they not mean anything now or does it not fit your arguement?

    Im not saying hes an ace, but Im certainly not saying hes mediocre. Hes a TOTR starter (#1 or #2)

    Its the same thing when some here look at Drews last 2 years and say hes not good. Drew was hurt. Lester had 3 pitching coaches in 2 years, a manager change, and got into some bad habits with his mechanics. he looks more like 2010, than 2012 without a doubt.

     



    His velocity is down from 2010. The only way to tell for sure what kind of a pitcher he is this year is to look at his stats in October. I say closer to a #3 than a #1-and with an ERA of about 4.20. Lester was not injured last year and still had a bad year. Valentine didn't help, but pros should be able to overcome that.

     

     




    like I said 3 pitching coaches in 2 years and bad mechanical habits will do that. Sometimes the best pitchers have issues. Farrell knew Lester well and knew right away what it was. Its a shame that not one of the 3 PC's they had could see that.

     

    I checked his velocity charts and hes been about the same from last year. Very slight drop off from 2011, but I read an article (Ill post it if I can find it again) that most pitchers between 28-31 usually will have a normal 1-2MPH drop over that time. It was a good article. Ill look for it again. That drop in velocity doesnt worry me at all. Hes still topping out about 95, but hanging around 92-94 most of the time.

    I guess time will tell with Lester, and we will know throughout this year.

     

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    OP attack on Lester is unmerited.  Plus I really disagree with the image of "not out of the woods" because I didn't think he was in the woods.  That said, I disagree with his reluctance to use the changeup.  He relies too much on his variations on the fastball which are too hittable when not mixed in with effective breaking balls. 

     




    His ERA was 4.82 last year, a year in which his annual velocity drops continued. IMO thats definitely being in the woods.

     



    Like I already posted. His ERA the last two months, after that blow-up in July, was 3.76, which is a fair sample size. So to me, that shows that he already was turning the corner after fixing his mechanics.

    So if you add his first seven starts this year, his ERA is 3.59 over his last 19 starts. To me, that shows he's coming out of the woods.

    It's fine to be skeptical about Lester's chances of being the 3.21 to 3.48 pitcher he was four four years straight. But it's also not unreasonable to think he's trending back to being that kind of pitcher.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to royf19's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    OP attack on Lester is unmerited.  Plus I really disagree with the image of "not out of the woods" because I didn't think he was in the woods.  That said, I disagree with his reluctance to use the changeup.  He relies too much on his variations on the fastball which are too hittable when not mixed in with effective breaking balls. 

     




    His ERA was 4.82 last year, a year in which his annual velocity drops continued. IMO thats definitely being in the woods.

     

     



    Like I already posted. His ERA the last two months, after that blow-up in July, was 3.76, which is a fair sample size. So to me, that shows that he already was turning the corner after fixing his mechanics.

     

    So if you add his first seven starts this year, his ERA is 3.59 over his last 19 starts. To me, that shows he's coming out of the woods.

    It's fine to be skeptical about Lester's chances of being the 3.21 to 3.48 pitcher he was four four years straight. But it's also not unreasonable to think he's trending back to being that kind of pitcher.




    Of course thats possible Roy...and I hope it comes to pass. I don't see it. Time will tell.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    OP attack on Lester is unmerited.  Plus I really disagree with the image of "not out of the woods" because I didn't think he was in the woods.  That said, I disagree with his reluctance to use the changeup.  He relies too much on his variations on the fastball which are too hittable when not mixed in with effective breaking balls. 

     




    His ERA was 4.82 last year, a year in which his annual velocity drops continued. IMO thats definitely being in the woods.

     



    Everyone's velocity drops.  Without context, it is about the same as saying we are getting older.

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    OP attack on Lester is unmerited.  Plus I really disagree with the image of "not out of the woods" because I didn't think he was in the woods.  That said, I disagree with his reluctance to use the changeup.  He relies too much on his variations on the fastball which are too hittable when not mixed in with effective breaking balls. 

     




    His ERA was 4.82 last year, a year in which his annual velocity drops continued. IMO thats definitely being in the woods.

     

     



    Everyone's velocity drops.  Without context, it is about the same as saying we are getting older.

     



    Whatever the reason is for the drop in velocity, its never a good thing. There is much more room for error with a 96 mph fastball than one at 92. So thats a likely reason for Lester's decline last year. I think it was an aberration, last year-but I also do not expect him to somehow shave a full RPG off his ERA by the end of this season. Even 0.6 RPG is a big improvement. I think he can do that. But not much more.

     
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