Re: Jose Iglesias 3 for 2
posted at 6/3/2013 9:40 AM EDT
In response to seannybboi's comment:
I don't see any of Iggy's hits lucky ones. He runs down to 1B pretty fast and when he gets infield hits, he hits them deep, between SS and 3B.
Really? Even though he has a plus .500 BABIP and a very low line drive rate, and a very high ground ball rate? even the fastest runners in league can't bat .300 year round with that high of a ground ball rate.
Stats need to be taken with a grain of salt but they are useful, they do measure something, and when used correctly with other measures they paint more of a clear picture and less of a narrative.
when you put a ball into play there is a 30% chance it lands. The statistical average of every ballplayer moves closer to this number the more at bats you get. The argument against that is the stats don't show hard hit balls, line drives, shots, and bunts....but when you combine BABIP with line drive rates and ground ball rates you really can see what is going on.
Jose Iglesias hits the ball on the ground and pops it up much much more than the league average. The only way he can possibly get base hits with numbers like that is when pop ups land inbetween outfielders and infielders, when runners leg out softly hit infield grounders, and when ground balls find its way inbetween defenders. Iggy has also walked less than 2% of the time.
Iggy has not looked good at the plate, but he has very good results. The difference is unless he cleans up his approach he is due for a very drastic adjustment. Of course I know that people will ignore this, just like they ignored my calls to not be surprised if Middlebrooks has a sophmore slump, and people ignored the logic that JBJ was going to struggle when the regular season begins.
For the record, I like IGGY, and let me make it perfectly clear that I think Iggy should be given every opportunity to start. He has MLB bat speed, he has the tools to hit and I think if given enough time he will hit enough to justify his defense. But Drew is a top ten SS right now and his defense has been better than advertised. I'm not ready to throw Drew to the curve because Iggy is getting lucky.
That's....just smart baseball. Don't worry Iggy will likely stay up with the team when WMB comes back....just don't be surprised at the end of the year when Iglesias is batting under .300