Re: Jose Iglesias starting?
posted at 2/24/2012 9:10 AM EST
In Response to Re: Jose Iglesias starting?
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: Jose Iglesias starting? : Based on all of the 18.2 innings of play that you watched last year.
Posted by TBSHBT1969[/QUOTE]
No. I told you what I based it on. You just don't want to or can't retain information.
The 18.2 innings i watched are just a tiny fraction of the information I am using to make my judgement.
Did you here me say that scouting reports on defense are much more reliable than on hitting or pitching? You may agree to disagree, but don't restate that my reasoning for my opinion is based on a tiny sample size. You discredit yourself, not me.
Elite defensive skills highlighted by extremely fluid hands and soft glove. Excellent instincts and anticipation produces his well above-average range. Will get to balls that most, if not all, will not. Plus, accurate arm. Adept at throwing on the move and has outstanding body control. Future perennial Gold Glove shortstop. Grades as an "80" defensively. Can also play second and third base more than adequately. Major League ready in the field.
Iglesias's fielding has been described as 'Ozzie Smith-style slick', already meriting a perfect 80 on the scouting scale.
His RF/G in AAA last year was 4.42. Scoot's was 3.76 in MLB. The differential is over a half play per game (.66) ... or about 80 (actually over 100 @ .66/G, but I adjusted down to 80) per full season (150 gms or so). Aviles has a career RF/G at SS of just under 4 (3.99), so by these numbers, one could reasonably project maybe 50-70 saved hits by Iggy over Aviles this year.
I realize my 80 plays is just a projection. I could be off by 25-35 plays or so, but even if Iggy just makes 40 more plays than Aviles would have made this year over 150 games, it would just about even them up in my opinion.
Aviles .280 (140/500)
Iggy .200 (100/500) add 40 hits and their about even. Add 60+ and...
I've never pretended this is all a 100% guaranteed projection, but I'll give you 3:1 odds that if Iggy plays 140+ games for the Red Sox this year, his RF/9 will be at least .50 higher than Scutaro's '10-'11 Red Sox numbers (3.91).