Judging Crawford (the post-April version)
posted at 8/26/2011 12:38 PM EDT
So I have been wondering just how bad Crawford has been and if there is a "light at the end of the tunnel." FWIW, I am not looking at the life of his contract, just judging this year. So I decided to put on my statistician hat (it is quite small and threadbare) and break down CC's season on a statistical basis.
Here is my conclusion: Crawford was AWFUL in April ... awful in epic proportions. No surprise there, we all knew that. Since April, however, he has essentially been performing at or slightly below his career average in almost all offensive categories. That sounds fine but there are some negative mitigating factors, namely:
1 - His defense has been bad and we obviously expected more there
2 - He is stealing bases at a historically low rate
3 - His BB/K totals and ratio are as bad as they've been in his career
4 - Most importantly, his contract and our expectations weren't set at career averages but rather under the expectation of the peak years. Notably, higher OBP and SLG than his career averages
Here are the numbers: If we back out April, CC is 87 of 303 with 15 2B's, 5 3B's 18 HR's, 25 BB, 118 K and 13 SB. If we normalize that to a full season of 575 AB's this is what his line might look like:
AVG OBP SLG 2B 3B HR SB BB K
.287 .322 .445 28 9 15 25 25 118
Overall, I'd give the post-April version of CC a grade of about C+. Discuss.