Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    So I have been wondering just how bad Crawford has been and if there is a "light at the end of the tunnel."  FWIW, I am not looking at the life of his contract, just judging this year.  So I decided to put on my statistician hat (it is quite small and threadbare) and break down CC's season on a statistical basis.

    Here is my conclusion: Crawford was AWFUL in April ... awful in epic proportions.  No surprise there, we all knew that.  Since April, however, he has essentially been performing at or slightly below his career average in almost all offensive categories.  That sounds fine but there are some negative mitigating factors, namely:
    1 - His defense has been bad and we obviously expected more there
    2 - He is stealing bases at a historically low rate 
    3 - His BB/K totals and ratio are as bad as they've been in his career
    4 - Most importantly, his contract and our expectations weren't set at career averages but rather under the expectation of the peak years.  Notably, higher OBP and SLG than his career averages

    Here are the numbers: If we back out April, CC is 87 of 303 with 15 2B's, 5 3B's 18 HR's, 25 BB, 118 K and 13 SB.  If we normalize that to a full season of 575 AB's this is what his line might look like:
    AVG OBP SLG 2B 3B HR SB BB K   
    .287 .322 .445 28 9 15 25 25 118

    Overall, I'd give the post-April version of CC a grade of about C+.  Discuss.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from soups. Show soups's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    His SB % is low mostly due to his low OBP.  Although, there are times where he gets on base and just doesn't seem to want to go.  This was never like him.  He had a 5 SB game against the Sox a few years back.

    Having said that, a few games ago he stole second and third consecutively and looked real comfy on the base paths.

    He's hitting a bit better as of late; had  HR a couple games back as well as a few hard hit balls.  In some ways, the Sox' postseason hopes rest on his bat and his legs.  But the upside is, he's not going to do this again.  He gets what, 7 more years with this team?  I think we can count on this being his worst year.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    On the other hand if you use the 5 RBI game as a measuring stick, he is "on pace" for 700 RBI's this season...if he plays around 140 games.

    We have no idea how hot or cold he is going to be in September so we can't accurately project his stats, let's just say that having a bad April is something many players would like to avoid because it creates an uphill battle for the entire season. If Crawford had a terrific start, say he batted .360 with 10 homeruns, 15 steals and 25 RBI in April , many here would be saying he is a lock for the Hall of Fame.

    I've used Carl Yastrzemski as an example before because he IS in the Hall of Fame, Yaz had some sub par seasons and he was actually booed in Fenway at times during the early 70's. Crawford's struggles are real, but the fickle, unrelentless attitude of Red Sox fans is making a mountain out of a mole hill.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from soups. Show soups's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    Nice post, Zilla.  You got a way with them there words.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    In Response to Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version):
    [QUOTE]His SB % is low mostly due to his low OBP.  Although, there are times where he gets on base and just doesn't seem to want to go.  This was never like him.  He had a 5 SB game against the Sox a few years back. Having said that, a few games ago he stole second and third consecutively and looked real comfy on the base paths. He's hitting a bit better as of late; had  HR a couple games back as well as a few hard hit balls.  In some ways, the Sox' postseason hopes rest on his bat and his legs.  But the upside is, he's not going to do this again.  He gets what, 7 more years with this team?  I think we can count on this being his worst year.
    Posted by soups[/QUOTE]

    His OBP is only about .010 less than his career norm. Thats maybe 3 less times on base than normal over 300 PAs. That's not why he is stealing less.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    In Response to Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version):
    [QUOTE]His SB % is low mostly due to his low OBP.  
    Posted by soups[/QUOTE]
    Not true.  If you back out April, he has 13 steals in 72 "prime opportunities" ... those are the number of times he ended up on 1st base via single or BB.  In his career he has 426 SB in 1436 "opportunities."  In other words, his Opp/SB ratio historically is 3.37 and post-April this year it is 5.54 or overall 2011 is 5.11.

    Maybe it is clearer this way, he is stealing 1/3 less this year when given the opportunity.  That's a pretty significant decrease.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    How many of the greatest basestealers of all time batted 6th in the lineup?

    Batting 6th in the lineup I wonder how many times Crawford has led off an inning with a walk or basehit?

    It seems the 6th spot is not a good spot for someone to best utilize their speed.

    One big issue that may never be resolved is that Ellsbury, Pedroia and Crawford have similar skills but they can't all bat in the #'s 1 and 2 spots in the lineup, somebody has to bat lower and this negates the speed part of the game.For example , If Ortiz gets on firstbase and Crawford follows him with a hit or walk, chances are Ortiz is clogging the basepaths ( Ortiz would almost never go 1st to 3rd on a single!) ahead of Crawford preventing him from stealing second.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    If CC starts heating it up more, he could bat 2nd and Pedey 3rd (AGon 4th, Youk or Papi 5th depending on the pitcher
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    Any way you slice it the guys struggled...it doesn't however imply that it's the new norm...give it some time the kid will figure it out...

    As for his base stealing he's simply not being aggressive, it's has little to do with his OBP...frankly I just think the kids afraid to fail.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from attic-dan. Show attic-dan's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

      The lack of offense speaks for itself, but I thought the Sox would be getting a gold glove LF, with his speed to run balls down hit into the gap, but he is not even close.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    In Response to Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version):
    [QUOTE]Any way you slice it the guys struggled...it doesn't however imply that it's the new norm...give it some time the kid will figure it out... As for his base stealing he's simply not being aggressive, it's has little to do with his OBP...frankly I just think the kids afraid to fail.
    Posted by Beantowne[/QUOTE]
    I agree with the second part.  I would slightly disagree with the first part, though.  I think he hasn't been that bad since April ... let's say mediocre.  What he has lacked is a BIG month to counter-balance his awful April.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    I'd be more inclined to bat Crawford ninths, rather than second. Once you're through the order, you have Crawford-Ellsbury-Pedroia in front of A-Gon. IMO, Crawford's OBP is too low to place him in front of the 3-4-5 hitters. By putting him ninth, you have more speed in front of Ellsbury. 

    I was never a big fan of signing Crawford and hate the contract. I think he'll be a valuable player in the long run, but I don't see the need to break up the top of the lineup -- the way it has been going this year -- just to cater to him or his contract.

    As for his defense, we've seen spurts of the defense this year, although there has been some surprisingly bad plays -- Manny-esque if you will. I think it's just confidence. I think he was carrying his struggles at the plate to the field. I think if he can continue to hit well, he'll start feeling better overall and it will show up in the field and on the bases.

    For whatever reasons, he has gone through stretches -- even after April -- where it look as if he wasn't playing with confidence. I don't want to overstate because you don't want to read too much into body language -- many posters go overboard in that respect -- but it's just my feeling the way he's been playing.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from attic-dan. Show attic-dan's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

       Hitting him ninth actually makes sense on many levels. If he reaches opens up hole for Ellsbury, can go to third on single, A lot of teams put essentially a second lead off man in the nine hole, but they aren't making 20+ million a year.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    I have no confidence in his ability in the field or his ability to get on base.  He is an unmitigated disaster - the Barry Zito of position players if you will......

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    I also used the Zito comparison. It's valid. I kept reading all these guys, smart posters too, talking about the "averages" SINCE APRIL, and how CC is no different SINCE APRIL. I'm completely baffled at the defense system for CC here, it's better than NORAD. Just look at his game log, he's actually had 3 SLUMPS, not 1, not 2, 3 SLUMPS. . .Look, we are all pulling for him, even us "haters," and he's hit the ball a little bit lately. But his defense and stolen base ability has dropped completely off the map. That is part of what Theo I believe was spending the 142 million on. Can you honestly tell me that CC is holding his weight (or hitting it)??
    Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    I had more confidence in Troy O'Leary, far more confidence in his ability to hit.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    In Response to Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version):
    [QUOTE]I also used the Zito comparison. It's valid. I kept reading all these guys, smart posters too, talking about the "averages" SINCE APRIL, and how CC is no different SINCE APRIL. I'm completely baffled at the defense system for CC here, it's better than NORAD. Just look at his game log, he's actually had 3 SLUMPS, not 1, not 2, 3 SLUMPS. . .Look, we are all pulling for him, even us "haters," and he's hit the ball a little bit lately. But his defense and stolen base ability has dropped completely off the map. That is part of what Theo I believe was spending the 142 million on. Can you honestly tell me that CC is holding his weight (or hitting it)?? Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Danny,
    It's too soon to lable him or compare him Zito end of the day the Giant's thought they signed a #1 CY caliber guy and got #6 on a good day. It is not however to soon to call him out or be disapointed in his performance...I think he'd concur, what I hope is he has more confidence in his ability to rebound than you do...

    If Crawford doesn't deliver to his career norms while wearing a Sox uniform and the sooner the better for his and the teams sake. Then the guys gonna be the most misarable mulitmillionaire this side of Lackey....
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    to be honest, I doubt very much when he sees the paychecks entering his bank accounts, he is "miserable." He plays baseball, and he gets paid to entertain. I just wish he would make a great catch every once in a while, or steal a base more than once in a Blue Moon Odom.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    I'm actually more concerned about the other intangibles than just his bat.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    In Response to Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version):
    [QUOTE]to be honest, I doubt very much when he sees the paychecks entering his bank accounts, he is "miserable." He plays baseball, and he gets paid to entertain. I just wish he would make a great catch every once in a while, or steal a base more than once in a Blue Moon Odom.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    In was said tounge in cheek...

    His slump at the plate, his lack of aggression on the base paths and his tentative play in the OF speak to him trying to hard and him being afraid to fail...I kid you not, what he needs to do is just relax and play ball and if he get throw out so be it...keep running and more importanly be aggressive when he has the chance to run...once he does his natuaral abilitly will come to the surface...I know that it sounds simple, but it really is that easy, he could learn a lesson or two from Pedrioa's struggles early in his a career and his undying confidence in his ability...
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    I'd be more inclined to bat Crawford ninths, rather than second. Once you're through the order, you have Crawford-Ellsbury-Pedroia in front of A-Gon. IMO, Crawford's OBP is too low to place him in front of the 3-4-5 hitters. By putting him ninth, you have more speed in front of Ellsbury. 

    I agree vs LHPs. Since he wont be platooned, he's best 9th vs lefties.
    Vs RHPs, I think he can work his way up to 2nd if he catches on fire. Pedey is not riveted to the 2nd slot.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    CC hits best in the 6th/7th slot.
    Possible reflection of his entire year: He may not press as much - or try too hard to impress.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    He should bat 9th vs LHPs.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from S0ftl@w. Show S0ftl@w's posts

    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    Ortiz was supposed to sit v. lhp. Oh well, Rays are toast, too.
     
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    Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version)

    In Response to Re: Judging Crawford (the post-April version):
    [QUOTE]If CC starts heating it up more, he could bat 2nd and Pedey 3rd (AGon 4th, Youk or Papi 5th depending on the pitcher
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]


    I'd agree but Tito would never adjust... seen it year in and year out.
     

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