So the other day, I cam up with some sort of statistical meassurement tool, not sure if it hwelps with projections or equivalents or what just yet, but I kinda like it.

 

Anyway, I used this to see what would happen if I plugged in Justin Upton and Justin Smoak, as I have expressed both as good targets for different reasons.  The resultsd were VERY surpising.

 

Upton was a miserable failure, with a .254BA, a .329OBP and 22HRs.  Smoak was a little better, posting a .260BA / .340 OBP with 20HRs.

 

I was a little surpised upton did so poorly.  He has never hit that low in his career.  I think a lot of it has to do with his ability to just pummel ground balls past infielders, particualry down the lines, which I simply could not account for.

 

Smoak, whom I have repeatedly called the unluckiest hitter in MLB, ctually looks like a reasonable option.  These are still Safeco-based numbers, and would obviously improve were he to actually get into a decent ballpark.  As he does actually go the opposite way quite well from the left side, and pulls with very solid contact right-handed, I can think of one obvious fit.

 

Not that I would offer much for him.  One of the excess catchers should suffice.  Lavarnway or Salty for Smoak?  Make it happen Ben!!

 

Assuming you get another hitter elsewhere, of course.  And if it has to be a free agent, I stronglt suggest SWisher

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In response to Softlaw1's comment:

I like Guthrie's 4.76 ERA, along with his career 1.309 WHIP.

Nick Swisher, 2009 - 2012:

• Salary:  circa $31m
• Fangraphs value:  circa $65m

That stupid Cashman hoodwinked again!

In response to Softlaw1's comment:

There are a couple of things that I find interesting.

• Big H/A splits with .558/.743
• Smoak had a monster September with 5 HRs and a .341, with a 13/13 K/W

He was the #11 pick, and ranked as high as #13 as a prospect.  Since he is a SH, he shouldn't be subject to bad L/R splits.  Sometimes Seattle is a good spot to look for hitters, since it depresses their stats.

Notin - I think many of us here would be very interested in the components of your measurement of value. 

Most will want to discuss/critique/argue the detail.....but all bar one will admire your effort and transparency.

Bar the one that won't under$and it!!!!!!!!!!!!

In response to notin's comment:

I suspect Seattle would not be interested in one year of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who is projected to earn $3.9 million in 2013 after posting a WAR of 2.0 this year, when the Mariners have three years of John Jaso, who is projected to earn $1.7 million in 2013 after posting a WAR of 2.7 this year.

I doubt Seattle would be interested in 25-year-old Ryan Lavarnway when the Mariners have highly regarded 21-year-old catcher Mike Zunino and 22-year-old former top prospect Jesus Montero.

The valid reasons why the Red Sox could be interested in Justin Smoak are the same reasons why the Mariners are likely to retain Smoak.

In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

Really, it is very simple and invovlves normalizing BABIP to eliminate good and/or bad luck and great defense, etc.  over a max 3 year stretch for a hitter.   Not much I can do about ballpark, etc.  Yet.

 

It's possible to do the same thing for pitchers, although the ERAs do tend to run a little higher.   I personally think it is more accurate than FIP...

In response to hill55's comment:

At some point, you might want think the Mariners might want to make a change at a position or two.  you might think the Mariners are clearly better than the Red Sox everywhere from MLB on down to low A ball, but the Red sox have been much better lately, and it took a complete firesale from Boston for the Mariners to catch up one time...

 

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In response to Softlaw1's comment:

Funny how you blame Fenway for our high ERA, even though when we won the rings it was much lower.

Now, you can't make the reverse judgement on the Mariners.  They were 8th in runs scored on the road (and ahead of the Rangers).

In response to notin's comment:

The Mariners no doubt "might want to make a change at a position or two," but Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway are unlikely answers. The young Seattle club is interesting to follow just as the struggling Boston club is interesting to follow for different reasons. I have resisted the temptation to make a blanket prediction are which club will fare better going forward.

Red Sox fans should now understand that fans of a last-place club can have high hopes and aspirations for their team.

The Sox point up the difference between the brand and the product. The long-standing Red Sox brand received a tremendous boost with the club's on-field success from 2003 through about 2008. Fans continue to clutch that esteemed brand while the quality of the product has declined. The Sox may address the disparity between the well-regarded brand and the current product by improving the product line. The Sox have a wealth of resources, but I will be watching with great interest on how the Sox pursue that upgrading of their product.

Best wishes this offseason and beyond.

In response to hill55's comment:

You too, Hill. You guys have a nice core of players, but limited resources. 

In response to hill55's comment:

You are kind of acting like the Sox were perennially in last place. If they didn't dump ever one they would have probably 80 wins or so. This team is also committed to puting together as decent team this year the Mariners are committed to puting together a 25 man roster. As this point they are probably better off dumping Felix because they might not be good enough before it is too late f

In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

Naturally,  both teams are looking to improve their lot.

However, missing from the last Red Sox team with a winning record are Adrian Gonzalez, Jonathan Papelbon, Josh Beckett, Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford, Marco Scutaro, J.D. Drew, Tim Wakefield, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Mike Aviles, Jason Varitek, Josh Reddick and Jed Lowrie. As of today, their collective replacements pale in comparison.

Some baseball teams can engineer quick turnarounds ... perhaps the Red Sox will be next.

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In response to Softlaw1's comment:

I don't see the Mariners "with limited resources," but their Opening Day payrolls have dropped as the club moved from a sad core of aging players to a promising core of young players. The rank of Seattle's Opening Day payroll among the 30 MLB teams: 2006 13th, 2007 7th, 2008 9th, 2009 10th, 2010 9th, 2011 16th and 2012 18th.

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

Thank you for your interest in the Seattle Mariners.

In response to hill55's comment:

How many of those player were important to the Sox being a winning team? The Sox assuming they sign a real first baseman and fill the holes outfield and everyone is healthy there is no way this team can't score runs. Crawford didn't perform well in Boston, Aviles was only here when the Sox stunk, Middlebrooks will be a better player than Youkilis, Papelbon was replaced by an All Star closer and the rest are easily replaceable. The Sox are only 3-4 players away from being a good team next year.

Actually more like 5 high need areas, but we also have so many "ifs" at the other 21 roster slots that we'd need almost all of them to come through at the same time to seriously compete.

High need areas:

1) #1/2 slot starting pitcher

2) RF'er

3) LF'er

4) 1Bman

5) SS (I think Igyy can make up for poor O with great D, but this is still a high need area)

 

Big "ifs":

Lester (from Sept 2011 to Oct 2012 has not been pretty)

Buch (health & inconsistencies)

4-5 slot starters (Doubront, Morales, Lackey, Tazawa, Mortensen, Stewart, Webster, de la Rosa?)

Bullpen (always a crahp shoot)

Ellsbury (health)

Catcher (3 of them should produce 1-2 capable catchers, but still an unknwon.)

Pedey (health)

Papi (health & age)

In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

In 2011:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

In 2010:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

In 2009:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2009&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2009&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

In response to hill55's comment:

You are makin my point as Cornbread Maxwell would say. They have already upgraded from Youk. This will probably off set the lost of Gonzalez If they sign a laRoche or someone like that. I feel like if they bring in two outfielders they are going to be much more productive than what they had in 11. You have yet to prove that the holes in the offense are that bad.  You are serverly discounting last years injuries and Bobby V two facts that really hurt the team in August and September. How about this if the Mariners finish with a better record I will set my avatar as the fan graph logo, if the Sox finish with a better record you don't post any of FG funny stats for a year.

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