Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to Soxdog67's comment:

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     Boston is included in Upton's no-trade list?!?  WTF?!?   LOL

     



    It's usually just a strategy to get an extention or other perks from the team on the list, if a trade is worked out with said team.

    The Sox and Yankees are on a lot of "No-Trade" lists, simply because of their payrolls.



    Actuslly, it's tied to player preferences...if the guy is already stating he doesn't want to be traded to Boston, why try to force it and acquire a player who would not adapt well to playing here, it could turn into another Renteria situation...that was a disaster.



    Soxdog, Four Bs is right.  Most players who have a limited no-trade always include the big market clubs to give them leverage in the event of a possible trade.  Since the Yanks and Sox are usually in on any available player, they are almost ways included.  There are obvious exceptions, but they are definitely not the norm.




    So not only would we have to empty the farm system, we'd also have to pay him like a free agent. Pass.



    Haha...I think they already did, but players don't always ask for an incentive to waive their no-trade.  Neither Beckett or Crawford asked for anything.  Sometimes players are just happy to leave.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    Trivia: Justin Upton and Joel Hanrahan share the same agent: Larry Reynolds, younger brother of Seattle's former two-time All Star secondbaseman Harold Reynolds, who grew up in Oregon.

    According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, Upton repeatedly told the Diamondbacks that he would not approve a trade to Seattle.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/289738586318831618

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/justin-upton-rumors-friday.html

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Trivia: Justin Upton and Joel Hanrahan share the same agent: Larry Reynolds, younger brother of Seattle's former two-time All Star secondbaseman Harold Reynolds, who grew up in Oregon.

    According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, Upton repeatedly told the Diamondbacks that he would not approve a trade to Seattle.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/289738586318831618

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/justin-upton-rumors-friday.html


    Maybe nobody told Upton that they brought the fences in this offseason. ;)

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    OK, crappy was a bit hyperbolic but is Upton the guy who puts you over the top? I don't think so. He's a nice complementary piece but he's no Manny Ramirez, although he does seem to share some of Manny's attitude traits. My point is he's not worth emptying out the farm for. And I'll continue to stand by that opinion. I personally would much rather see Xander and JBJ and Matt Barnes and RDLR playing in Fenway than J. Upton. And it would likely take all four of them to interest AZ. Then there's Upton's no trade clause that includes Boston.

    1) I guess you are assuming a 25 year old player will not improve over the next 3 years of team control.

    2) It won't take those 4 players to get him. We can probably make a 5-6 player deal involving only 1 of those guys.



    I would tread lightly on the age thing.  A lot of people take the age 27 thing as gospel, and assume a linear progression until age 27.  But part of the progression is experience and part physical maturity.  When a player comes up as early as Upton, then his experience curve has pretty much expired.  And physical maturity is a variable as well.

    In the three years preceding age 25, his brother had a .783.  subsequently, a .753

    MCab had a .970 in the three years preceding 25, and .980 since.

    Fielder had a .908 3 years before 25, and then a .952 since.

    Wright had a .930 3 years before 25, and a .862 since.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    I would also be careful about trading for sluggers this year because of the testing.  That wasn't aimed at Upton, but you know that some guys are going to suddenly fall off of a cliff.

     
  6. This post has been removed.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    True enough, but if the reported Seattle offer is what we think it is, it does show about what AZ was demanding and wants. Do you see Furbush and Pryor as big pieces?



    Of course, Justin Upton would need to approve a trade to the Red Sox, who are on his limited no-trade list.

     

    Stephen Pryor is a 23-year-old righthander whose fastball averaged 96.3 mph last year. Pryor, who remains under team control for six years, has been ranked Seattle's sixth-, 11th- and 14th-best prospect by MLB.com Prospect Watch, John Sickels and FanGraphs, respectively. I don't see a reasonable comp among Red Sox prospects, but he resembles fellow Mariner prospect Carter Capps, a 22-year-old righthander whose fastball averaged 98.3 mph in 2012. Pryor and Capps are considered closer material.

    Charlie Furbush, a 26-year-old lefthander who remains under team control for five seasons, held opposing hitters to a .174 batting average in 46.1 innings last season while posting an ERA of 2.72, a WHIP of 0.95, a K/9 of 10.3 and a BB/9 of 3.11. The Red Sox lack a comparable reliever in terms of recent performance and years of control.

    I would think that Pryor and Furbush have some value.



    I think they do have value, but do you honestly think they are worth more than Doubie and Tazawa?

    Yes, Furbush has a nice 2012, but it was just 46 IP and he was horrendous in 2011 in 85 IP and has a career mark of 4.51/1.30 WHIP playing with a team that plays in a pitcher's park and many away games in pitcher's parks as well.

    in Seattle  3.08  1.07

    Pryor is hard to match up with, but like I said, we don't really know how AZ rates our young pitchers. They may like them more than what SEA offered.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    So not only would we have to empty the farm system, we'd also have to pay him like a free agent. Pass.

    Have you seen what aging FAs have gotten in today's market?

    Upton, at age 25, is a steal at... 

    13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M

    Even if we extend him at FA prices, he'll still average out as a good financial deal.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    OK, crappy was a bit hyperbolic but is Upton the guy who puts you over the top? I don't think so. He's a nice complementary piece but he's no Manny Ramirez, although he does seem to share some of Manny's attitude traits. My point is he's not worth emptying out the farm for. And I'll continue to stand by that opinion. I personally would much rather see Xander and JBJ and Matt Barnes and RDLR playing in Fenway than J. Upton. And it would likely take all four of them to interest AZ. Then there's Upton's no trade clause that includes Boston.

    1) I guess you are assuming a 25 year old player will not improve over the next 3 years of team control.

    2) It won't take those 4 players to get him. We can probably make a 5-6 player deal involving only 1 of those guys.



    I would tread lightly on the age thing.  A lot of people take the age 27 thing as gospel, and assume a linear progression until age 27.  But part of the progression is experience and part physical maturity.  When a player comes up as early as Upton, then his experience curve has pretty much expired.  And physical maturity is a variable as well.

    In the three years preceding age 25, his brother had a .783.  subsequently, a .753

    MCab had a .970 in the three years preceding 25, and .980 since.

    Fielder had a .908 3 years before 25, and then a .952 since.

    Wright had a .930 3 years before 25, and a .862 since.



    Point well taken. I do not think it is too much of a stretch to project over .900, when he has been at about .899 in 2 of the last 3 years and played hurt the other.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    There is also the point that Upton probably would like to join his brother in Atlanta and the Braves have the money and minor league talent to pull that off if they want to.  As an added incentive to the DBacks...Upton doesn't have to approve that trade.  There is no guarantee that the Sox minor league talent will bring them a WS but I would sure like to see them given the chance to do so and not be traded away. 

     
  11. This post has been removed.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:

    There is also the point that Upton probably would like to join his brother in Atlanta and the Braves have the money and minor league talent to pull that off if they want to.  As an added incentive to the DBacks...Upton doesn't have to approve that trade.  There is no guarantee that the Sox minor league talent will bring them a WS but I would sure like to see them given the chance to do so and not be traded away. 

    J. Upton has never expressed a desire to "join his borther in ATL". The Braves have no more advantage in minor league talent to "pull off that if they want to" than the Red Sox do. It's not an added incentive to the DBacks to do anything but seek the best trade, as they have already done with the Mariners. The DBacks absolutely will have to be overwhelmed to trade J. Upton to an NL team. The DBacks don't have your lack of understanding of the business of baseball. The no-trade list is merely a leverage for an extension from a big market team.

    Bradley, Jr. and Barnes and Bogaerts would not have to be traded, despite false reports to the contrary because of the Mariners weak trade offer that was approved. Selling Ellsbury, Brentz, Webster or De La Rosa and any other player in the Red Sox farm except for Bradley, Jr. and Barnes and Boaerts in the trade market to the highest bidders will net the package that will get the DBacks approval. Offering J. Upton a base 17 extension on the end of his current deal that takes him to age 32 will close the trade.

    The reason Cherry isn't picking up the phone is because he has a doting fan base that will cry like babies if he trades Ellsbury's final season with the Red Sox. Cherry would have already tried to extend Ellsbury but Ellsbury and his agent will sell to the highest bidder and that's not going to be the Red Sox because there is no way, with Bradley Jr. costing nothing for years, that Red Sox management gets approval to do another 30 year old FA lefty OF geriatrics contract in the wake of one of the single most incompetent moves in MLB GM history, the 142M contract offer to Carl Crawford.

    Cherry is like InEpstein, he exposes his incompetence in utilizing the trade market by reacting to the FA market. He will pretend the draft compensation and 10 million to Ellsbury was the way to go instead of trading him and the draft compensation in the winter trade market. Even if Ellsbury has a strong first half, his trade value will be less because he'll come with no draft compesnation and no team will trade much for a couple of months of Ellsbury.



    I doubt that the doting fan base has anything to do with his trading Ellsbury or not...It could be as simple as he values him more than you do. Last I checked it was Cherington that ultimately has the control..Perhaps he sees us a a better team with, than without. He's already with the signing of Victorino and the anticipated emergence of Bradley JR structured the roster to have the flexibility and leverage to allow Ellsbury to play out his contract or trade him if the right deal presents itself...

    As for trading for Upton, what you and many that fawn over the guy don't know is the reasoning behind why Upton and his agent placed the Red Sox on his limmited no trade list. Therein lyes the answer to any and all speculation regarding his aquisition. If his stance is under no circumstances would accept a trade to...the conversation is over. If he and his agent did so to extract payment from, in order to get him to waive his no trade. Then it comes down to at what cost and if Cherington arrives at we're better with, than without and the two teams first can get Upton to approve a trade. Then workout fair value in return and John Henry gives his blessing and opens his wallet. Juston Upton will be wearing a Sox uniform this spring. Otherwise we're all wasting good brain cells bantering back and forth with unfounded, specualtive, hypothisies...

    Now if you have Upton's phone number and could give him a call asked him if he would approve a trade to Boston, then let Cherington know...Now your above senario has merit and it's a matter of the D-backs and Sox coming to an agreement.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    J. Upton: 16 extra base hits and 20 RBI in 78 road games last year.  Yes sir, that's the kind of dominant slugger you want to go all in for. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    Upton's 162 game averages are 24 HR and 80 RBI.  Away from home, needless to say, much worse than that.

    As a hitter, Upton's numbers are comparable to J. D. Drew's, except with less power and a lower on-base percentage.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:

    There is also the point that Upton probably would like to join his brother in Atlanta and the Braves have the money and minor league talent to pull that off if they want to.  As an added incentive to the DBacks...Upton doesn't have to approve that trade.  There is no guarantee that the Sox minor league talent will bring them a WS but I would sure like to see them given the chance to do so and not be traded away. 

    J. Upton has never expressed a desire to "join his borther in ATL". The Braves have no more advantage in minor league talent to "pull off that if they want to" than the Red Sox do. It's not an added incentive to the DBacks to do anything but seek the best trade, as they have already done with the Mariners. The DBacks absolutely will have to be overwhelmed to trade J. Upton to an NL team. The DBacks don't have your lack of understanding of the business of baseball. The no-trade list is merely a leverage for an extension from a big market team.

    Bradley, Jr. and Barnes and Bogaerts would not have to be traded, despite false reports to the contrary because of the Mariners weak trade offer that was approved. Selling Ellsbury, Brentz, Webster or De La Rosa and any other player in the Red Sox farm except for Bradley, Jr. and Barnes and Boaerts in the trade market to the highest bidders will net the package that will get the DBacks approval. Offering J. Upton a base 17 extension on the end of his current deal that takes him to age 32 will close the trade.

    The reason Cherry isn't picking up the phone is because he has a doting fan base that will cry like babies if he trades Ellsbury's final season with the Red Sox. Cherry would have already tried to extend Ellsbury but Ellsbury and his agent will sell to the highest bidder and that's not going to be the Red Sox because there is no way, with Bradley Jr. costing nothing for years, that Red Sox management gets approval to do another 30 year old FA lefty OF geriatrics contract in the wake of one of the single most incompetent moves in MLB GM history, the 142M contract offer to Carl Crawford.

    Cherry is like InEpstein, he exposes his incompetence in utilizing the trade market by reacting to the FA market. He will pretend the draft compensation and 10 million to Ellsbury was the way to go instead of trading him and the draft compensation in the winter trade market. Even if Ellsbury has a strong first half, his trade value will be less because he'll come with no draft compesnation and no team will trade much for a couple of months of Ellsbury.



    The first half of your post gets you an A.  The 2nd half was mostly drivel.  However, if I were your teached, you'd have gotten lucky.  I'd have simply unstapled the two papers, and thrown away the second.

    I'm not an Upton fan, but if we could swing the trade without surrendering any of the 3 Bs, I'd be fine.  Ells can be replaced with Vic, I'm not a big fan of Brentz, and Webster and DLR are no sure things, those I leaning towards keeping DLR.  We might also get away with a shorter contract.  32 is not a good age to become a FA, 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    J. Upton: 16 extra base hits and 20 RBI in 78 road games last year.  Yes sir, that's the kind of dominant slugger you want to go all in for. 



    Hey Hfx,

    He's the kind of hitter that you aquire if you have the chips and don't expect him to be the next Willie Mays. Basically he's a solid 5 hole guy that projects to play LF and if he produces to his career norms gives you  a solid run producers who projects to be a 25 HR-90 RBI-with a 840ish OPS...with the upside potentil to be a 30-100-900 cleanup hitter if he continues to improve as he enters his prime...That's the conundrum facing the team that aquires him...do you take the risk and overpay based on his potential to be vs his actual resume. If you arrive at the upside is worth the cost of aquisition. Then answer to the question of whehter is was a good or bad decision can't be answered today.

    The good news is that given the Red Sox resources ($)...they can take a chance on betting on the come...

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think they do have value, but do you honestly think they are worth more than Doubie and Tazawa? Yes, Furbush has a nice 2012, but it was just 46 IP and he was horrendous in 2011 in 85 IP and has a career mark of 4.51/1.30 WHIP playing with a team that plays in a pitcher's park and many away games in pitcher's parks as well.

    Felix Doubront had a rough 2011 as well.

    A combined nine years of Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa would rival a combined 11 years of Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor.

    So a Red Sox offer of Xander Bogaerts, Matt Barnes, Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa would be comparable to the reported Seattle offer of Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin, Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor.

    From a Red Sox perspective, I don't think I'd do that trade.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think they do have value, but do you honestly think they are worth more than Doubie and Tazawa? Yes, Furbush has a nice 2012, but it was just 46 IP and he was horrendous in 2011 in 85 IP and has a career mark of 4.51/1.30 WHIP playing with a team that plays in a pitcher's park and many away games in pitcher's parks as well.


    Felix Doubront had a rough 2011 as well.

     

    A combined nine years of Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa would rival a combined 11 years of Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor.

    So a Red Sox offer of Xander Bogaerts, Matt Barnes, Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa would be comparable to the reported Seattle offer of Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin, Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor.

    From a Red Sox perspective, I don't think I'd do that trade.




    I don't think it would have been a good deal from a Mariners perspective either. Maybe Upton actually did the M's a favor by nixing the deal.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think they do have value, but do you honestly think they are worth more than Doubie and Tazawa? Yes, Furbush has a nice 2012, but it was just 46 IP and he was horrendous in 2011 in 85 IP and has a career mark of 4.51/1.30 WHIP playing with a team that plays in a pitcher's park and many away games in pitcher's parks as well.


    Felix Doubront had a rough 2011 as well.

     

    A combined nine years of Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa would rival a combined 11 years of Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor.

    So a Red Sox offer of Xander Bogaerts, Matt Barnes, Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa would be comparable to the reported Seattle offer of Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin, Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor.

    From a Red Sox perspective, I don't think I'd do that trade.



    definitely wouldn't do that deal. if i was the mariners or the RS.. Its just way too much for a giant questionmark

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to carnie's comment:

    I don't think it would have been a good deal from a Mariners perspective either. Maybe Upton actually did the M's a favor by nixing the deal.

    You may well be right.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    ...definitely wouldn't do that deal. if i was the mariners or the RS.. Its just way too much for a giant questionmark

    If a 25 year old who is in the top 16 players by WAR over the last 4 years combined (2400+ PAs) and in the top 14 in OPS is a "big question mark", then so is just about every MLB player today.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    ...definitely wouldn't do that deal. if i was the mariners or the RS.. Its just way too much for a giant questionmark

    If a 25 year old who is in the top 16 players by WAR over the last 4 years combined (2400+ PAs) and in the top 14 in OPS is a "big question mark", then so is just about every MLB player today.



    Moon,

    Not sure that he's a big question mark, he is however a player the diamondbacks are peddling and trying to parlay his potential to be an impact bat into a multiple prospect deal. That's the conundrum facing the acquiring team trying to access his current value and projecting what might be...Clearly the Mariners were ready and willing to overpay for his current level of production. Which for them makes some sense given the reputation of Safeco. they'll be hard pressed to lure top FA hitters to sign with them. Especially right handed hitters...

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/28841/type/batting3/justin-upton

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think they do have value, but do you honestly think they are worth more than Doubie and Tazawa? Yes, Furbush has a nice 2012, but it was just 46 IP and he was horrendous in 2011 in 85 IP and has a career mark of 4.51/1.30 WHIP playing with a team that plays in a pitcher's park and many away games in pitcher's parks as well.


    Felix Doubront had a rough 2011 as well.

     

    A combined nine years of Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa would rival a combined 11 years of Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor.

    So a Red Sox offer of Xander Bogaerts, Matt Barnes, Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa would be comparable to the reported Seattle offer of Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin, Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor.

    From a Red Sox perspective, I don't think I'd do that trade.



    I don't either, and that is why I suggested adding Cecchini, Lava and another prospect to take the place of Bogaerts or Barnes. I'd also prefer to send Bradley instead of Boggy or barnes, but that might have to involve a 3rd team. I'd also be open to trading Ellsbury for a prospect that could be flipped to AZ. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Justin Upton Declines Trade to Seattle

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I don't either, and that is why I suggested adding Cecchini, Lava and another prospect to take the place of Bogaerts or Barnes. I'd also prefer to send Bradley instead of Boggy or barnes, but that might have to involve a 3rd team. I'd also be open to trading Ellsbury for a prospect that could be flipped to AZ.


    If we could do it that way I'd be a lot more open to it. There's no way I'd want to move Bradley though. The guy got on base at a .430 clip last year, is a gold glove defender with a plus arm, and by all accounts his intangibles are off the charts. He's also already won a CWS MVP so you know he's not scared of the big stage.

     
  25. This post has been removed.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share