Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    If we are to seriously compete withing the next 2 years, we need a bonafide stud cleanup hitter that is RH'd. How many times does a guy like Upton get put on the market? There may not be another chance in a while.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    Or we could get the .790OPS 15Hr .268 version of Upton. He hasnt shown he can be consistent yet. The stats clearly show this.

    Too many errors and too many times caught stealing as well. Just because he enters his prime doesnt mean its a guarentee. He could go either way, just like Bogaerts, but different.

    If he was consistent for the last 3-4 years, then Ok. but there have been off the field issues as well as the inconsistent play. Add in the fact he has had his share of nagging injuries already and I say no if it involved Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, JBJ or Barnes.

    Yeah, I know thats a lot of faith in our "kids", but it shows how much faith I have that Upton will be the guy that brings us to the promise land once again. And he has to do it in 3 years.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    ya thats kind of what i was thinking too, perhaps we could trade someone like salty to get a prospect or player to send to arizona so we would have to give up less of our prospects. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to redsoxpride34's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ya thats kind of what i was thinking too, perhaps we could trade someone like salty to get a prospect or player to send to arizona so we would have to give up less of our prospects. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Trade Salty & Iggy & maybe others for a better SS to send to AZ along with more of our prospects not named Bogaerts or Barnes might do the trick.

     

     
  5. This post has been removed.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Or we could get the .790OPS 15Hr .268 version of Upton. He hasnt shown he can be consistent yet. The stats clearly show this.

    Too many errors and too many times caught stealing as well. Just because he enters his prime doesnt mean its a guarentee. He could go either way, just like Bogaerts, but different.

    If he was consistent for the last 3-4 years, then Ok. but there have been off the field issues as well as the inconsistent play. Add in the fact he has had his share of nagging injuries already and I say no if it involved Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, JBJ or Barnes.

    Yeah, I know thats a lot of faith in our "kids", but it shows how much faith I have that Upton will be the guy that brings us to the promise land once again. And he has to do it in 3 years.

    [/QUOTE]

    I actually see an OPS range of between .785 and .899 as remarkably "consistent" for a MLB player between the ages of 20 and 24 (first 5 full seasons).

    He's played in 309 games the last 2 years and was hampered by an injury this year, but I do not think he is injury prone.

    His BA has been between .273 and .300 for 4 straight years.

    His OBP has been as steady as it gets:  .366>.356>.369>.355.

    His SLG% has flexed some, but has stayed within 100 points the last 5 years.

    His 162 game career avg is .280  24  80  (39 2B+3B). There aren't many 24 year olds with over 3,000 ML PAs and those numbers. Yeah, he could fizzle or fade, but I don't see any other young players with those numbers being shopped right now.

    We have to jump at opportunities like this and pray he follows normal progression.  

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to redsoxpride34's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ya thats kind of what i was thinking too, perhaps we could trade someone like salty to get a prospect or player to send to arizona so we would have to give up less of our prospects. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Trade Salty & Iggy & maybe others for a better SS to send to AZ along with more of our prospects not named Bogaerts or Barnes might do the trick.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Moon,

    I have no issue acquiring Upton. I just dont like what we would have to give to get him. Ive seen the prospects play that they would want, minus Barnes, and I think JBJ and Bogaerts have very bright futures in MLB.

    I understand you have to give to get, I just dont see us giving up that much talent for 3 years of Upton and his "potential" to be consistent and not injured.

    I like carie's idea, which is similar to what Texas is trying to do.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to redsoxpride34's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ya thats kind of what i was thinking too, perhaps we could trade someone like salty to get a prospect or player to send to arizona so we would have to give up less of our prospects. 

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Trade Salty & Iggy & maybe others for a better SS to send to AZ along with more of our prospects not named Bogaerts or Barnes might do the trick.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Moon,

    I have no issue acquiring Upton. I just dont like what we would have to give to get him. Ive seen the prospects play that they would want, minus Barnes, and I think JBJ and Bogaerts have very bright futures in MLB.

    I understand you have to give to get, I just dont see us giving up that much talent for 3 years of Upton and his "potential" to be consistent and not injured.

    I like carie's idea, which is similar to what Texas is trying to do.

    [/QUOTE]

    Perhaps by involving a 3rd team and more mid-level prospects (anyone beyond Bogaerts, Bradley & Barnes) plus young ML'er (Morales, Doubront) and maybe Aceves or Breslow, we can pry Upton from AZ by having the 3rd team send them the SS they want.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to softlaw's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Go after Choo.  He was a better player than Upton this season. 

    I can't stop laughing!

    [/QUOTE]

    You're right.  It is kind of funny that some people want to give up half the minor league system for a player who wasn't even as good as Choo.

    Player A  .283/.373/.441/.815

    Player B  .280/.355/.430/.785

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If we are to seriously compete withing the next 2 years, we need a bonafide stud cleanup hitter that is RH'd. How many times does a guy like Upton get put on the market? There may not be another chance in a while.

    [/QUOTE]

    In 2012, we were 43-68 against righties and 26-25 against lefties.  We had an OPS of .717 against righties and .759 against lefties.

    In 2011, we were 57-50 against righties and 33-22 against lefties, and the OPS was about even.

    These stats indicate that we need to get much better against righties to compete.  You can probably discount 2012 with injuries to Ellsbury and Papi, but even in 2011, with great years from Papi and Ellsbury, we still only played .532 against righties.

    And until proven otherwise, Upton is not an elite player.  Gordon's WAR over the past two years (1411 PAs) is 12.8.  Upton's WAR for his entire career (3030 PAs) is only 17.1.

    Upton's H/A splits are also trouble with .937 at home and .731 on the road.

    In 2005, Upton was the #1 pick and Gordon the #2 pick.

    By 2007, Gordon was ranked #2 in the minors, against Upton #9.

    Outside of data-driven conclusions, there is no reason to think that Upton is any better than Gordon.  The single stat in favor of Upton is that he is younger, but after 5 years in the league, the learning cuve advantage has disappeared.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If we are to seriously compete withing the next 2 years, we need a bonafide stud cleanup hitter that is RH'd. How many times does a guy like Upton get put on the market? There may not be another chance in a while.

    [/QUOTE]

    In 2012, we were 43-68 against righties and 26-25 against lefties.  We had an OPS of .717 against righties and .759 against lefties.

    In 2011, we were 57-50 against righties and 33-22 against lefties, and the OPS was about even.

    These stats indicate that we need to get much better against righties to compete.  You can probably discount 2012 with injuries to Ellsbury and Papi, but even in 2011, with great years from Papi and Ellsbury, we still only played .532 against righties.

    And until proven otherwise, Upton is not an elite player.  Gordon's WAR over the past two years (1411 PAs) is 12.8.  Upton's WAR for his entire career (3030 PAs) is only 17.1.

    Upton's H/A splits are also trouble with .937 at home and .731 on the road.

    In 2005, Upton was the #1 pick and Gordon the #2 pick.

    By 2007, Gordon was ranked #2 in the minors, against Upton #9.

    Outside of data-driven conclusions, there is no reason to think that Upton is any better than Gordon.  The single stat in favor of Upton is that he is younger, but after 5 years in the league, the learning cuve advantage has disappeared.

    [/QUOTE]

    I have mentioned that I'd love Gordon as well.

    I think Upton will have a great next 3 years. I feel his numbers this year were affected by injuries to some extent. 

    Any signing or trade is a gamble to some degree. It's hard to speculate on what AZ would want for Upton vs what KC would want for Gordon, but I'd be thrilled to have either one... or both!

    Alex is 28 not 24. He has never hit over 23 HRs, but he does have 4 years of team control, not 3.

    Wouldn't you be concerned about Alex's splits vs LHPs? .700 (.829 vs RHP) Justin's worst hand is .808 vs RHPs, but is .900 vs LHPs. He's about even with Gordon vs RHPs and he is 4 years younger. He's 200 points better vs LHPs.

    Also, he is much better at home as well: .829 vs .748, though not as extreme as Justin.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    I have mentioned that I'd love Gordon as well.

    I think Upton will have a great next 3 years. I feel his numbers this year were affected by injuries to some extent

    If you attribute the off-year to injuries, then it becomes that Upton has been injured in 4 of the past 5 years.

    Any signing or trade is a gamble to some degree. It's hard to speculate on what AZ would want for Upton vs what KC would want for Gordon, but I'd be thrilled to have either one... or both!

    Recent speculation has been centered around Doubront.  I doubt it would be enough, but if it was something like Doubront + a B-level prospect, then that is light years better than what they've been talking about for Upton.  And I'd prefer to deal with GM DM.

    Alex is 28 not 24. He has never hit over 23 HRs, but he does have 4 years of team control, not 3.

    Not too concerned about the age.  Neither will be past their prime.  Once could argue that Upton could continue to mature, but the learning curve is now gone, and he is not a skinny kid putting on muscle.

    Wouldn't you be concerned about Alex's splits vs LHPs? .700 (.829 vs RHP) Justin's worst hand is .808 vs RHPs, but is .900 vs LHPs. He's about even with Gordon vs RHPs and he is 4 years younger. He's 200 points better vs LHPs.

    Also, he is much better at home as well: .829 vs .748, though not as extreme as Justin.

    Not terribly concerned.  Ideally you want even splits, but we've been handling lefties better than righties the past two seasons.  And this is not to say that I wouldn't kick the tires on Upton, but i am not seeing much evidence to think that he is better, let alone materially better to warrant giving up a whole lot of the farm.

     

     

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to softlaw's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Go after Choo.  He was a better player than Upton this season. 

    I can't stop laughing!

    [/QUOTE]

    You're right.  It is kind of funny that some people want to give up half the minor league system for a player who wasn't even as good as Choo.

    Player A  .283/.373/.441/.815

    Player B  .280/.355/.430/.785

    [/QUOTE]

    Past season numbers is not the best predictor of future performance. Past 2-3 years is  better data. Factor in age as well.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to softlaw's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Anyone who doesn't uderstand that Bradley stays and Bogearts, if necessary, and Ellsbury goes in regards to acquiring J. Upton is as incompetent as Cherry.

    It goes like this, immediate and intermediate:

    J. Upton in Ellspuff out

    Bradley, Jr. in and Sweeney, Kalish and Pods or Sizemore one year patch

    I like this offer and I think the DBacks would love it:

    Ellspuff for one year and his draft compensation 

    Brentz or Bogaerts if Brentz won't due

    De La Rosa or Webster

    Any other player on the farm except Bradley and Bogaerts.

     

    I have zero doubt that that will close the deal.

    [/QUOTE]


    doubt it. they want ML pitching and ML ready 3rd baseman and SS. not guys who are multiple years out and one year from ellsbury

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to softlaw's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Anyone who doesn't uderstand that Bradley stays and Bogearts, if necessary, and Ellsbury goes in regards to acquiring J. Upton is as incompetent as Cherry.

    It goes like this, immediate and intermediate:

    J. Upton in Ellspuff out

    Bradley, Jr. in and Sweeney, Kalish and Pods or Sizemore one year patch

    I like this offer and I think the DBacks would love it:

    Ellspuff for one year and his draft compensation 

    Brentz or Bogaerts if Brentz won't due

    De La Rosa or Webster

    Any other player on the farm except Bradley and Bogaerts.

     

    I have zero doubt that that will close the deal.

    [/QUOTE]


    doubt it. they want ML pitching and ML ready 3rd baseman and SS. not guys who are multiple years out and one year from ellsbury

    [/QUOTE]

    He doesn't get it.

    First he rants and rants about how bad Ellsbury is, then all of a sudden, Ellsbury has amazing trading value.

    He did the same with Lowrie and Reddick. Bad mouthed them up and down, then cried that Ben should have got more in trade.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to softlaw's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Anyone who doesn't uderstand that Bradley stays and Bogearts, if necessary, and Ellsbury goes in regards to acquiring J. Upton is as incompetent as Cherry.

    It goes like this, immediate and intermediate:

    J. Upton in Ellspuff out

    Bradley, Jr. in and Sweeney, Kalish and Pods or Sizemore one year patch

    I like this offer and I think the DBacks would love it:

    Ellspuff for one year and his draft compensation 

    Brentz or Bogaerts if Brentz won't due

    De La Rosa or Webster

    Any other player on the farm except Bradley and Bogaerts.

     

    I have zero doubt that that will close the deal.

    [/QUOTE]


    doubt it. they want ML pitching and ML ready 3rd baseman and SS. not guys who are multiple years out and one year from ellsbury

    [/QUOTE]

    He doesn't get it.

    First he rants and rants about how bad Ellsbury is, then all of a sudden, Ellsbury has amazing trading value.

    He did the same with Lowrie and Reddick. Bad mouthed them up and down, then cried that Ben should have got more in trade.

    [/QUOTE]

    oh no, ellsbury still sucks. its the draft compensation that is OH SO ENTICING!!

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    ...but then he treats our prospects like their balue is nada.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ...but then he treats our prospects like their balue is nada.

    [/QUOTE]


    If he was a real Sox fan he would understand the true value and not be so quick to jump on 3 years of Upton. Hes the only one that would part with Bogaerts to get Upton, even though they want MLB ready/proven SS, 3b and Pitchers. None of his names fit that description.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    I'd give Bogaerts for Upton, but don't think we'd have to. My last choice tradee is Barnes. Bogaerts is 2nd and Bradley 3rd.

    I think if we involve a 3rd team to get AZ their SS, and we add 2 of Aceves, Morales, and Doubront and maybe Cecchini or Owens, we can get our prize and still have Bogaerts.

     
  22. This post has been removed.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Folks, we have a couple of stooges who are little more than cheerleader dimwits for middle management. They post a ton, as if they have a clue. Notice how they react to nearly every post I make. And when they react, they come up with such absudity as "offer Wakefield 2 million" and "keep Bogaerts as a deal break on the J. Upton trad emarket". As if Bogaerts is ready to rise up from bottom level minor league ball and take the majors by storm in the next two or three years. He has little chance of doing what J. Upton has already done at a young age in the NL on a weak team.

    I enjoyed this season, as pitiful as the Red Sow were, because I didn't have to watch that loser Wastefield waddle out there and hear the propaganda on why he's a valuable roster member.

    [/QUOTE]


    No, what you fail to realize as YOU react to my posts is the FACT that AZ wants a MLB ready 3b, SS or pitcher. They dont want Bogaerts who is still possibly 2-3 years away (your words) or 1 year of Ellsbury and Bryce Brentz... They want proven MLB talent. Sox wont part with Middlebrooks either, as they shouldnt. RDLR and Webster dont even fit the description of MLB ready either. Its not what you want to give, its what AZ will take and wants...

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    De La Rosa or Webster and Brentz or Bogaerts and any other farm prospect except Barnes and Bradley gets the DBacks all they want and more.

    It's not even close. There are 5-10 teams in MLB that will offer better than that. You, yourself, bashed Webster & de la Rosa right after the trade. Now, suddenly, they have this immense value to you and apparently AZ as well.. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    Keep Elles, trade for Upton and Shin-Soo Choo. Now we have a good outfield.

     
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