Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    I didn't know that J. Upton and Napoli played the same positions. Nice comparison, Drewski, after then stating "I don't see why both". Why even start with that. The question is, what are your specifics for making sure J. Upton would be acquired, and what is your top offer for Napoli.



    I'd be willing to offer 1 top prospect and 2 second tier prospects for Upton.  I'd give Naps 4 yrs / 54M in a heartbeat (prob even more).

    Napoli has a HR for every 6.6% of his at-bats.  Thats better than any C of all time.  Better than VMART, better than Piazza.  There is no reason to think that this would drop off if he moves to a ballpark that his swing is tailor made for.

    The comparison was because Moon said that we need a RH slugger.  I agree.  And I was throwing Napoli out there as an option.  .863 career OPS!!  Pedroia's is .830.  Justin Upton's is .830.  Hunter's is .800.  VMarts is .840

    Napoli's bat is very much for real!  He is a bona fide RH slugger.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    If I sign Napoli , first : I'm willing to give up more for JUPP.  Because it means that the future has become the present (a good thing).

    If I sign Napoli: I'm willing to go 2 of our top 5 prospects, and 2 others (but I'd try to keep De La Rosa).  I'd offer Webster, Lavrnaway, Brentz, and Cecchini

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    If I sign Napoli , first : I'm willing to give up more for JUPP.  Because it means that the future has become the present (a good thing).

    If I sign Napoli: I'm willing to go 2 of our top 5 prospects, and 2 others (but I'd try to keep De La Rosa).  I'd offer Webster, Lavrnaway, Brentz, and Cecchini



    It's going to take giving up Bogaerts, Bradley or Barnes. If it was up to me, I'd give Bradley, but that might be their last choice of the big 3 B's. They may not even want an OF'er in return, so maybe scratch Brentz as well. I think they want more ML ready players. I suggested:

    2 of: Aceves, Morales, Doubront, or Tazawa

    Bradley (This may have to be Bogaerts instead.)

    Vinicio or T. Lin (or if push comes to shove Cecchini)  

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to toccooa's comment:

     I'd give Naps 4 yrs / 54M in a heartbeat (prob even more).

    So, a 31 year old guy with a career OPS of .863 who had a huge decline from 2011 to 2012 is going to get a 4 year 54M offer from you to play 1st base, DH and backup catcher?  Why not simply offer low farm scraps for VMart (who only had 2 and 26 left), or, if the Tigers want more, simply go one year and low single digits for Loney and platoon Loney and Gomez at 1st base until a better value and fit presents itself?

    I think Napoli's value and fit ends at 10 to 13M and 2 years. I'll be suprised if anyone bids 4 years market rate, but examples like Crawford and Hunter are not valid reasons to pay market for someone like Napoli.

    I agree on your trade suggesting for J. Upton, with the expection that I would approach a little differently. I would set aside the following pool, getting rid of Ellsbury's 10M cost for 2013 and using his draft compensation to reduce the loss of some of the current young talent:

    Pool for J. Upton trade negotiation:

    Ellsbury and his draft compensation (can be flipped to a third team)

    Brentz (can be flipped to a a third team)

    De La Rosa or Webster (can be flipped to a third team)

    The DBacks pick of any one player on the farm except for Barnes and Bradley, Jr. (can be flipped to a 3rd team)

    The rumor is that the DBacks are seeking a MLB ready SS, 3B and Pitcher. The above package would be able to be flipped to provide that. Both Brentz and Ellsbury and his draft compensation will provide at least 2 MLB starter ready SS and 3B. And in the event that the DBacks don't view De La Roasa or Webster as MLB ready, one of them and another upper tier prospect will net a 2nd tier MLB ready NL pitcher.

    And in the event the DBacks provide offer sheets that show a clearly better deal, I would add Bogearts to the pool and subtract Brentz. I seriously doubt any better offers will be on the table. Using Ellsbury and his draft compensation is the key to the allue of the package and saves at least one year talent, over other offers.

    It has no net affect on the 2013 labor costs, as Ellsbury's cost is swapped for J. Upton.

    The bridge to Bradley is short and cheap. J. Upton and Bradley, Jr. stabilized what would be a terrific modern skillset OF for many years to come.

    The pitching market is simply full of overpriced 2nd rate pitchers.

    The best way for the Red Sox to get better, short and long term, is to acquire J. Upton to go with Middlebrooks and Ortiz in the middle of the order, and to go with whoever they finally replace AGon with as the long term lefty slugging talent.

    The market is there to improve an offense that, when adjusted for lack of consistency and for the park and league factor, hasn't cut it since Manny left.

    The current costs on Lester, Buch and Lackey need to produce. Chasing other 2nd rate pitchers is just a way to compound the problem. Doubrant should be retained, and Tazawa and Morales should be in the starting pitcher depth pool for 2013. Guthrie is the best 3rd rate pitcher option, with way better value than the 2nd rate pitchers. Guthrie's market value ends at 2 years and base 5 or 6. There are other low single digit/minor league veteran pitcher options that far exceed the value of the 2nd rate FA pitcher and pitcher trade market.

    A team trading, or dumping into a FA, a starting pitcher is almost always a red flag for physical or mental health issues. The lone exception would be for teams with financial problems, and those should be scrtutinized because those teams know their better talent better than anyone else.




    Just saving this for when softy gets banned again,his post is erased, and then later denies he ever said this.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

     I'd give Naps 4 yrs / 54M in a heartbeat (prob even more).

    So, a 31 year old guy with a career OPS of .863 who had a huge decline from 2011 to 2012 is going to get a 4 year 54M offer from you to play 1st base, DH and backup catcher?  Why not simply offer low farm scraps for VMart (who only had 2 and 26 left), or, if the Tigers want more, simply go one year and low single digits for Loney and platoon Loney and Gomez at 1st base until a better value and fit presents itself?

    I think Napoli's value and fit ends at 10 to 13M and 2 years. I'll be suprised if anyone bids 4 years market rate, but examples like Crawford and Hunter are not valid reasons to pay market for someone like Napoli.

    I agree on your trade suggesting for J. Upton, with the expection that I would approach a little differently. I would set aside the following pool, getting rid of Ellsbury's 10M cost for 2013 and using his draft compensation to reduce the loss of some of the current young talent:

    Pool for J. Upton trade negotiation:

    Ellsbury and his draft compensation (can be flipped to a third team)

    Brentz (can be flipped to a a third team)

    De La Rosa or Webster (can be flipped to a third team)

    The DBacks pick of any one player on the farm except for Barnes and Bradley, Jr. (can be flipped to a 3rd team)

    The rumor is that the DBacks are seeking a MLB ready SS, 3B and Pitcher. The above package would be able to be flipped to provide that. Both Brentz and Ellsbury and his draft compensation will provide at least 2 MLB starter ready SS and 3B. And in the event that the DBacks don't view De La Roasa or Webster as MLB ready, one of them and another upper tier prospect will net a 2nd tier MLB ready NL pitcher.

    And in the event the DBacks provide offer sheets that show a clearly better deal, I would add Bogearts to the pool and subtract Brentz. I seriously doubt any better offers will be on the table. Using Ellsbury and his draft compensation is the key to the allue of the package and saves at least one year talent, over other offers.

    It has no net affect on the 2013 labor costs, as Ellsbury's cost is swapped for J. Upton.

    The bridge to Bradley is short and cheap. J. Upton and Bradley, Jr. stabilized what would be a terrific modern skillset OF for many years to come.

    The pitching market is simply full of overpriced 2nd rate pitchers.

    The best way for the Red Sox to get better, short and long term, is to acquire J. Upton to go with Middlebrooks and Ortiz in the middle of the order, and to go with whoever they finally replace AGon with as the long term lefty slugging talent.

    The market is there to improve an offense that, when adjusted for lack of consistency and for the park and league factor, hasn't cut it since Manny left.

    The current costs on Lester, Buch and Lackey need to produce. Chasing other 2nd rate pitchers is just a way to compound the problem. Doubrant should be retained, and Tazawa and Morales should be in the starting pitcher depth pool for 2013. Guthrie is the best 3rd rate pitcher option, with way better value than the 2nd rate pitchers. Guthrie's market value ends at 2 years and base 5 or 6. There are other low single digit/minor league veteran pitcher options that far exceed the value of the 2nd rate FA pitcher and pitcher trade market.

    A team trading, or dumping into a FA, a starting pitcher is almost always a red flag for physical or mental health issues. The lone exception would be for teams with financial problems, and those should be scrtutinized because those teams know their better talent better than anyone else.




    Just saving this for when softy gets banned again,his post is erased, and then later denies he ever said this.



    Good move. I'll save it too.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    The Loney and Gomez platoon is the 3rd option, only if VMart can't be acquired via trade market and Napoli finds a 3 year or more market for base 13 or more.

    By the way, I can't speak for Softlaw, but I did save a copy of Moonbat's 2M 2012 FA MLB contract offer to Tim Wakefield. It later dropped to 1 million, followed by a desperate plea for 3/4 of a million.



    You really should try harder to develop various writing styles if you seriously think anyone will buy that.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    The Loney and Gomez platoon is the 3rd option, only if VMart can't be acquired via trade market and Napoli finds a 3 year or more market for base 13 or more.


    James Loney is not the answer, but would Loney even be interested in returning to Boston after the Red Sox went 9-24 during his tenure?

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to toccooa's comment:

     I'd give Naps 4 yrs / 54M in a heartbeat (prob even more).

    So, a 31 year old guy with a career OPS of .863 who had a huge decline from 2011 to 2012 is going to get a 4 year 54M offer from you to play 1st base, DH and backup catcher?  Why not simply offer low farm scraps for VMart (who only had 2 and 26 left), or, if the Tigers want more, simply go one year and low single digits for Loney and platoon Loney and Gomez at 1st base until a better value and fit presents itself?

    Because I dont think VMART is available for anything close to a reasonable price.  They were excited when they got him, and tried to get him back last year.  After losing in the WS, they immediately turned around an overpayed for Hunter.  They have A.Jackson , D.Fister, and Scherzer (who could turn into an ace any year) for cheap money over the next 2 yrs.  I think they are going to make an all out push to get back to the series.  Also: they have been smart (except for the Hunter overpay).  The trade that brought in Scherzer and Jackson was a good one.  I liked the Prince signing.  VMART is a huge assett, and I dont see the Tigers dumping him. 

    I think Napoli's value and fit ends at 10 to 13M and 2 years. I'll be suprised if anyone bids 4 years market rate, but examples like Crawford and Hunter are not valid reasons to pay market for someone like Napoli.

    He hits a HR in 6.6% of his at-bats.  That's the all time high for a C.  Better than Piazza, better than VMART.  His career OPS is .863.  (Hunter's is .800, Pedey's is .830).  That is a legitimate gap.  He draws a ton of walks.  We have had luck signing guys who have Fenway swings.  Lowell/Beltre/C.Ross.  Napoli's swing is 100% made for Fenway.  He is one year removed from MVP numbers.  Also: he had a hamstring injury last year.  One final thing: if experience matters at any position, its C.  He has seven years experience calling games and working w/ pitching stats.  I dont think his D is as bad as advertised.  I would rate it below avg.  Becaus he's not a horrid catcher, you can call him defensively versatile.  At 31, he should have 3-4 "rake years" left.  He can DH in yrs 3 and 4.  I'd offer him 3 yrs at first.  But if it comes down to either giving him a fourth year or losing him....I pull the trigger.

    I agree on your trade suggesting for J. Upton, with the expection that I would approach a little differently. I would set aside the following pool, getting rid of Ellsbury's 10M cost for 2013 and using his draft compensation to reduce the loss of some of the current young talent:

    Pool for J. Upton trade negotiation:

    Ellsbury and his draft compensation (can be flipped to a third team)

    Brentz (can be flipped to a a third team)

    De La Rosa or Webster (can be flipped to a third team)

    The DBacks pick of any one player on the farm except for Barnes and Bradley, Jr. (can be flipped to a 3rd team)

    The rumor is that the DBacks are seeking a MLB ready SS, 3B and Pitcher. The above package would be able to be flipped to provide that. Both Brentz and Ellsbury and his draft compensation will provide at least 2 MLB starter ready SS and 3B. And in the event that the DBacks don't view De La Roasa or Webster as MLB ready, one of them and another upper tier prospect will net a 2nd tier MLB ready NL pitcher.

     

    If we are not signing Napoli, then I'm okay w trading Ellsbury.  However, if we are, I'd rather just pay the 10M , keep him, and compete in 2013.  The return that you have listed (part of a deal for JUPP, but not the centerpiece) doesnt blow me away.  I think a lineup w/ Ellsbury, Pedey, Ortiz, JUPP, Napoli, Middlebrooks competes for the division.  If we do not sign Napoli (and more), then i think it makes sense to trade Ells because if we go into 2013 as currently constructed, we are not seriously trying to compete in the short term.

     




     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    If I sign Napoli , first : I'm willing to give up more for JUPP.  Because it means that the future has become the present (a good thing).

    If I sign Napoli: I'm willing to go 2 of our top 5 prospects, and 2 others (but I'd try to keep De La Rosa).  I'd offer Webster, Lavrnaway, Brentz, and Cecchini



    It's going to take giving up Bogaerts, Bradley or Barnes. If it was up to me, I'd give Bradley, but that might be their last choice of the big 3 B's. They may not even want an OF'er in return, so maybe scratch Brentz as well. I think they want more ML ready players. I suggested:

    2 of: Aceves, Morales, Doubront, or Tazawa

    Bradley (This may have to be Bogaerts instead.)

    Vinicio or T. Lin (or if push comes to shove Cecchini)  



    I'd rather give up any B than De La Rosa.  He throws 97 as a starter and has a durable arm.  (Tommy John  is like Lasex.  Lasex makes your eyesight better than 20/20, much like Tommy John makes your arm better than 100%).

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    The Loney and Gomez platoon is the 3rd option, only if VMart can't be acquired via trade market and Napoli finds a 3 year or more market for base 13 or more.

     

    Just like you denied Nick Johnson was your first choice, Kotchman your second, and Beltre 3rd (you were against moving Youk back to 1B as he aged and became injury prone.)

    Reason to save this.

    By the way, I can't speak for Softlaw, but I did save a copy of Moonbat's 2M 2012 FA MLB contract offer to Tim Wakefield. It later dropped to 1 million, followed by a desperate plea for 3/4 of a million.

    Show it....liar.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    The Loney and Gomez platoon is the 3rd option, only if VMart can't be acquired via trade market and Napoli finds a 3 year or more market for base 13 or more.

    By the way, I can't speak for Softlaw, but I did save a copy of Moonbat's 2M 2012 FA MLB contract offer to Tim Wakefield. It later dropped to 1 million, followed by a desperate plea for 3/4 of a million.



    Awesome post.  Litterally laughed out loud.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    However, if we are, I'd rather just pay the 10M , keep him, and compete in 2013.  The return that you have listed (part of a deal for JUPP, but not the centerpiece) doesnt blow me away.  I think a lineup w/ Ellsbury, Pedey, Ortiz, JUPP, Napoli, Middlebrooks competes for the division

    False assumption that Ellsbury leaving or staying is a litmus test for "competing in 2013". Dealing away Ellsbury and his draft pick will save a top young farm prospect, in addition to getting rid of that face and adding the new face of the Red Sox OF.

    The Red Sox always talk about "competing for the division", but it's talk. The reality is that the Red Sox have been butchered by incompetent middle management and need to focus on simply making a rare recent times return to the playoffs.



    To clarify: I only meant to imply that if we are competing in 2013, I think Ells could be a valuablerole player and that I'd rather retain him (rolling the dice because his downside is DL'd for 2/3 of the season) than deal him for a slight return.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    However, if we are, I'd rather just pay the 10M , keep him, and compete in 2013.  The return that you have listed (part of a deal for JUPP, but not the centerpiece) doesnt blow me away.  I think a lineup w/ Ellsbury, Pedey, Ortiz, JUPP, Napoli, Middlebrooks competes for the division

    False assumption that Ellsbury leaving or staying is a litmus test for "competing in 2013". Dealing away Ellsbury and his draft pick will save a top young farm prospect, in addition to getting rid of that face and adding the new face of the Red Sox OF.

    The Red Sox always talk about "competing for the division", but it's talk. The reality is that the Red Sox have been butchered by incompetent middle management and need to focus on simply making a rare recent times return to the playoffs.



    To clarify: I only meant to imply that if we are competing in 2013, I think Ells could be a valuablerole player and that I'd rather retain him (rolling the dice because his downside is DL'd for 2/3 of the season) than deal him for a slight return.




    I'd trade Ellsbury to Cinci for Cingrani and Corcino, but I just don't love Justin Upton as much as the rest of you guys. There's nothing about him that screams this is the guy we've been missing since Manny started mailing it in to me. Giancarlo Stanton on the other hand...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    However, if we are, I'd rather just pay the 10M , keep him, and compete in 2013.  The return that you have listed (part of a deal for JUPP, but not the centerpiece) doesnt blow me away.  I think a lineup w/ Ellsbury, Pedey, Ortiz, JUPP, Napoli, Middlebrooks competes for the division

    False assumption that Ellsbury leaving or staying is a litmus test for "competing in 2013". Dealing away Ellsbury and his draft pick will save a top young farm prospect, in addition to getting rid of that face and adding the new face of the Red Sox OF.

    The Red Sox always talk about "competing for the division", but it's talk. The reality is that the Red Sox have been butchered by incompetent middle management and need to focus on simply making a rare recent times return to the playoffs.



    To clarify: I only meant to imply that if we are competing in 2013, I think Ells could be a valuablerole player and that I'd rather retain him (rolling the dice because his downside is DL'd for 2/3 of the season) than deal him for a slight return.




    I'd trade Ellsbury to Cinci for Cingrani and Corcino, but I just don't love Justin Upton as much as the rest of you guys. There's nothing about him that screams this is the guy we've been missing since Manny started mailing it in. Giancarlo Stanton on the other hand...



    How many 24 year old guys have over 1800 PAs and an OPS of over .765 since 2009?

    1- Upton at .842 in that 4 year stretch.

    How many 24 year old guys have over 1920 PAs and an OPS over .695 since 2009?

    1- Upton (.842).

    That's 150 points higher than his closest competition at this sample size.

    Yes, Stanton (just turned 23), Longoria (just turned 27), Butler (turns 27 in April), Sandoval (will turn 27 next season) have a higher OPS from 2008-2012 (with less PAs), and I'd love to have any of them, but J Upton is the guy that is being shopped.

    Top WAR of players who werer 24 years old during the 4 year span of 2009-2012:

    Upton 16.7

    Longoria 15.3

    Andrus  13.9

    Heyward 13.7

    McCutcheon 13.2

    Sandoval  13.1

    Stanton  13.1

    J Bruce  10.3

    S Castro  9.1

    C Rasmus 7.8

    A Jackson 6.8

    C Maybin  6.3

    B Revere  5.1

    B Butler  5.1

     

    Last 2 years OPS combined with players 24 or under during anytime from 2011-2012:

    Stanton  .928

    Avila       .895

    Upton     .843

    McCutch .820

    Harper    .817

    Bruce      .814

    Freeman .795

    Heyward .771

    Bourjos    .765

    Castro      .763

     

    The idea behind getting Upton or someone else on this list is to break away from the mistakes of signing FAs at the end of their prime window to massive crippling contracts. While no player is a lock to perform as we wish, I'd rather gamble on Upton or Stanton than hamilton, Napoli, or some other hitter in their 30's.

    (Sidenote: I'm still putting acquiring a solid #1/2 slot starting pitcher as our #1 priority.)

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    However, if we are, I'd rather just pay the 10M , keep him, and compete in 2013.  The return that you have listed (part of a deal for JUPP, but not the centerpiece) doesnt blow me away.  I think a lineup w/ Ellsbury, Pedey, Ortiz, JUPP, Napoli, Middlebrooks competes for the division

    False assumption that Ellsbury leaving or staying is a litmus test for "competing in 2013". Dealing away Ellsbury and his draft pick will save a top young farm prospect, in addition to getting rid of that face and adding the new face of the Red Sox OF.

    The Red Sox always talk about "competing for the division", but it's talk. The reality is that the Red Sox have been butchered by incompetent middle management and need to focus on simply making a rare recent times return to the playoffs.



    To clarify: I only meant to imply that if we are competing in 2013, I think Ells could be a valuablerole player and that I'd rather retain him (rolling the dice because his downside is DL'd for 2/3 of the season) than deal him for a slight return.




    I'd trade Ellsbury to Cinci for Cingrani and Corcino, but I just don't love Justin Upton as much as the rest of you guys. There's nothing about him that screams this is the guy we've been missing since Manny started mailing it in. Giancarlo Stanton on the other hand...



    How many 24 year old guys have over 1800 PAs and an OPS of over .765 since 2009?

    1- Upton at .842 in that 4 year stretch.

    How many 24 year old guys have over 1920 PAs and an OPS over .695 since 2009?

    1- Upton (.842).

    That's 150 points higher than his closest competition at this sample size.

    Yes, Stanton (just turned 23), Longoria (just turned 27), Butler (turns 27 in April), Sandoval (will turn 27 next season) have a higher OPS from 2008-2012 (with less PAs), and I'd love to have any of them, but J Upton is the guy that is being shopped.

    Top WAR of players who werer 24 years old during the 4 year span of 2009-2012:

    Upton 16.7

    Longoria 15.3

    Andrus  13.9

    Heyward 13.7

    McCutcheon 13.2

    Sandoval  13.1

    Stanton  13.1

    J Bruce  10.3

    S Castro  9.1

    C Rasmus 7.8

    A Jackson 6.8

    C Maybin  6.3

    B Revere  5.1

    B Butler  5.1

     

    Last 2 years OPS combined with players 24 or under during anytime from 2011-2012:

    Stanton  .928

    Avila       .895

    Upton     .843

    McCutch .820

    Harper    .817

    Bruce      .814

    Freeman .795

    Heyward .771

    Bourjos    .765

    Castro      .763

     

    The idea behind getting Upton or someone else on this list is to break away from the mistakes of signing FAs at the end of their prime window to massive crippling contracts. While no player is a lock to perform as we wish, I'd rather gamble on Upton or Stanton than hamilton, Napoli, or some other hitter in their 30's.

    (Sidenote: I'm still putting acquiring a solid #1/2 slot starting pitcher as our #1 priority.)



    I'm probably painting Justin Upton with the same broad brush as his brother, as I have to admit I haven't followed him that closely. Your analysis tends to be fairly accurate moon, so I'm inclined to look at J Upton with a fresh eye. But I'm not sure I'd be willing to give up Bogaerts or Bradley for him, not to mention Rubby DLR for him and I think the price is likely to be all 3 plus some more. As far as that goes I think Bogaerts is likely to come up and give us everything J Upton could at the plate. And if Iggy doesn't start hitting he could be doing that next year. Bradley as you well know is the guy I think will replace Ells. If we could get Stanton though, I would empty the farm, holding onto Bogaerts if I could.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    However, if we are, I'd rather just pay the 10M , keep him, and compete in 2013.  The return that you have listed (part of a deal for JUPP, but not the centerpiece) doesnt blow me away.  I think a lineup w/ Ellsbury, Pedey, Ortiz, JUPP, Napoli, Middlebrooks competes for the division

    False assumption that Ellsbury leaving or staying is a litmus test for "competing in 2013". Dealing away Ellsbury and his draft pick will save a top young farm prospect, in addition to getting rid of that face and adding the new face of the Red Sox OF.

    The Red Sox always talk about "competing for the division", but it's talk. The reality is that the Red Sox have been butchered by incompetent middle management and need to focus on simply making a rare recent times return to the playoffs.



    To clarify: I only meant to imply that if we are competing in 2013, I think Ells could be a valuablerole player and that I'd rather retain him (rolling the dice because his downside is DL'd for 2/3 of the season) than deal him for a slight return.




    I'd trade Ellsbury to Cinci for Cingrani and Corcino, but I just don't love Justin Upton as much as the rest of you guys. There's nothing about him that screams this is the guy we've been missing since Manny started mailing it in. Giancarlo Stanton on the other hand...



    How many 24 year old guys have over 1800 PAs and an OPS of over .765 since 2009?

    1- Upton at .842 in that 4 year stretch.

    How many 24 year old guys have over 1920 PAs and an OPS over .695 since 2009?

    1- Upton (.842).

    That's 150 points higher than his closest competition at this sample size.

    Yes, Stanton (just turned 23), Longoria (just turned 27), Butler (turns 27 in April), Sandoval (will turn 27 next season) have a higher OPS from 2008-2012 (with less PAs), and I'd love to have any of them, but J Upton is the guy that is being shopped.

    Top WAR of players who werer 24 years old during the 4 year span of 2009-2012:

    Upton 16.7

    Longoria 15.3

    Andrus  13.9

    Heyward 13.7

    McCutcheon 13.2

    Sandoval  13.1

    Stanton  13.1

    J Bruce  10.3

    S Castro  9.1

    C Rasmus 7.8

    A Jackson 6.8

    C Maybin  6.3

    B Revere  5.1

    B Butler  5.1

     

    Last 2 years OPS combined with players 24 or under during anytime from 2011-2012:

    Stanton  .928

    Avila       .895

    Upton     .843

    McCutch .820

    Harper    .817

    Bruce      .814

    Freeman .795

    Heyward .771

    Bourjos    .765

    Castro      .763

     

    The idea behind getting Upton or someone else on this list is to break away from the mistakes of signing FAs at the end of their prime window to massive crippling contracts. While no player is a lock to perform as we wish, I'd rather gamble on Upton or Stanton than hamilton, Napoli, or some other hitter in their 30's.

    (Sidenote: I'm still putting acquiring a solid #1/2 slot starting pitcher as our #1 priority.)



    I'm probably painting Justin Upton with the same broad brush as his brother, as I have to admit I haven't followed him that closely. Your analysis tends to be fairly accurate moon, so I'm inclined to look at J Upton with a fresh eye. But I'm not sure I'd be willing to give up Bogaerts or Bradley for him, not to mention Rubby DLR for him and I think the price is likely to be all 3 plus some more. As far as that goes I think Bogaerts is likely to come up and give us everything J Upton could at the plate. And if Iggy doesn't start hitting he could be doing that next year. Bradley as you well know is the guy I think will replace Ells. If we could get Stanton though, I would empty the farm, holding onto Bogaerts if I could.



    I've always thought overpaying at 1B is a bit reckless, since an average 1Bman has an OPS not far from the best ones, so the positional comparative added value is minimized, but this Stanton guys is out of this world!

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    However, if we are, I'd rather just pay the 10M , keep him, and compete in 2013.  The return that you have listed (part of a deal for JUPP, but not the centerpiece) doesnt blow me away.  I think a lineup w/ Ellsbury, Pedey, Ortiz, JUPP, Napoli, Middlebrooks competes for the division

    False assumption that Ellsbury leaving or staying is a litmus test for "competing in 2013". Dealing away Ellsbury and his draft pick will save a top young farm prospect, in addition to getting rid of that face and adding the new face of the Red Sox OF.

    The Red Sox always talk about "competing for the division", but it's talk. The reality is that the Red Sox have been butchered by incompetent middle management and need to focus on simply making a rare recent times return to the playoffs.



    To clarify: I only meant to imply that if we are competing in 2013, I think Ells could be a valuablerole player and that I'd rather retain him (rolling the dice because his downside is DL'd for 2/3 of the season) than deal him for a slight return.




    I'd trade Ellsbury to Cinci for Cingrani and Corcino, but I just don't love Justin Upton as much as the rest of you guys. There's nothing about him that screams this is the guy we've been missing since Manny started mailing it in. Giancarlo Stanton on the other hand...



    How many 24 year old guys have over 1800 PAs and an OPS of over .765 since 2009?

    1- Upton at .842 in that 4 year stretch.

    How many 24 year old guys have over 1920 PAs and an OPS over .695 since 2009?

    1- Upton (.842).

    That's 150 points higher than his closest competition at this sample size.

    Yes, Stanton (just turned 23), Longoria (just turned 27), Butler (turns 27 in April), Sandoval (will turn 27 next season) have a higher OPS from 2008-2012 (with less PAs), and I'd love to have any of them, but J Upton is the guy that is being shopped.

    Top WAR of players who werer 24 years old during the 4 year span of 2009-2012:

    Upton 16.7

    Longoria 15.3

    Andrus  13.9

    Heyward 13.7

    McCutcheon 13.2

    Sandoval  13.1

    Stanton  13.1

    J Bruce  10.3

    S Castro  9.1

    C Rasmus 7.8

    A Jackson 6.8

    C Maybin  6.3

    B Revere  5.1

    B Butler  5.1

     

    Last 2 years OPS combined with players 24 or under during anytime from 2011-2012:

    Stanton  .928

    Avila       .895

    Upton     .843

    McCutch .820

    Harper    .817

    Bruce      .814

    Freeman .795

    Heyward .771

    Bourjos    .765

    Castro      .763

     

    The idea behind getting Upton or someone else on this list is to break away from the mistakes of signing FAs at the end of their prime window to massive crippling contracts. While no player is a lock to perform as we wish, I'd rather gamble on Upton or Stanton than hamilton, Napoli, or some other hitter in their 30's.

    (Sidenote: I'm still putting acquiring a solid #1/2 slot starting pitcher as our #1 priority.)



    I'm probably painting Justin Upton with the same broad brush as his brother, as I have to admit I haven't followed him that closely. Your analysis tends to be fairly accurate moon, so I'm inclined to look at J Upton with a fresh eye. But I'm not sure I'd be willing to give up Bogaerts or Bradley for him, not to mention Rubby DLR for him and I think the price is likely to be all 3 plus some more. As far as that goes I think Bogaerts is likely to come up and give us everything J Upton could at the plate. And if Iggy doesn't start hitting he could be doing that next year. Bradley as you well know is the guy I think will replace Ells. If we could get Stanton though, I would empty the farm, holding onto Bogaerts if I could.



    I've always thought overpaying at 1B is a bit reckless, since an average 1Bman has an OPS not far from the best ones, so the positional comparative added value is minimized, but this Stanton guys is out of this world!




    Stanton plays Right Field. 40 jacks in right field is about as good as it's ever going to get.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    However, if we are, I'd rather just pay the 10M , keep him, and compete in 2013.  The return that you have listed (part of a deal for JUPP, but not the centerpiece) doesnt blow me away.  I think a lineup w/ Ellsbury, Pedey, Ortiz, JUPP, Napoli, Middlebrooks competes for the division

    False assumption that Ellsbury leaving or staying is a litmus test for "competing in 2013". Dealing away Ellsbury and his draft pick will save a top young farm prospect, in addition to getting rid of that face and adding the new face of the Red Sox OF.

    The Red Sox always talk about "competing for the division", but it's talk. The reality is that the Red Sox have been butchered by incompetent middle management and need to focus on simply making a rare recent times return to the playoffs.



    To clarify: I only meant to imply that if we are competing in 2013, I think Ells could be a valuablerole player and that I'd rather retain him (rolling the dice because his downside is DL'd for 2/3 of the season) than deal him for a slight return.




    I'd trade Ellsbury to Cinci for Cingrani and Corcino, but I just don't love Justin Upton as much as the rest of you guys. There's nothing about him that screams this is the guy we've been missing since Manny started mailing it in. Giancarlo Stanton on the other hand...



    How many 24 year old guys have over 1800 PAs and an OPS of over .765 since 2009?

    1- Upton at .842 in that 4 year stretch.

    How many 24 year old guys have over 1920 PAs and an OPS over .695 since 2009?

    1- Upton (.842).

    That's 150 points higher than his closest competition at this sample size.

    Yes, Stanton (just turned 23), Longoria (just turned 27), Butler (turns 27 in April), Sandoval (will turn 27 next season) have a higher OPS from 2008-2012 (with less PAs), and I'd love to have any of them, but J Upton is the guy that is being shopped.

    Top WAR of players who werer 24 years old during the 4 year span of 2009-2012:

    Upton 16.7

    Longoria 15.3

    Andrus  13.9

    Heyward 13.7

    McCutcheon 13.2

    Sandoval  13.1

    Stanton  13.1

    J Bruce  10.3

    S Castro  9.1

    C Rasmus 7.8

    A Jackson 6.8

    C Maybin  6.3

    B Revere  5.1

    B Butler  5.1

     

    Last 2 years OPS combined with players 24 or under during anytime from 2011-2012:

    Stanton  .928

    Avila       .895

    Upton     .843

    McCutch .820

    Harper    .817

    Bruce      .814

    Freeman .795

    Heyward .771

    Bourjos    .765

    Castro      .763

     

    The idea behind getting Upton or someone else on this list is to break away from the mistakes of signing FAs at the end of their prime window to massive crippling contracts. While no player is a lock to perform as we wish, I'd rather gamble on Upton or Stanton than hamilton, Napoli, or some other hitter in their 30's.

    (Sidenote: I'm still putting acquiring a solid #1/2 slot starting pitcher as our #1 priority.)



    I'm probably painting Justin Upton with the same broad brush as his brother, as I have to admit I haven't followed him that closely. Your analysis tends to be fairly accurate moon, so I'm inclined to look at J Upton with a fresh eye. But I'm not sure I'd be willing to give up Bogaerts or Bradley for him, not to mention Rubby DLR for him and I think the price is likely to be all 3 plus some more. As far as that goes I think Bogaerts is likely to come up and give us everything J Upton could at the plate. And if Iggy doesn't start hitting he could be doing that next year. Bradley as you well know is the guy I think will replace Ells. If we could get Stanton though, I would empty the farm, holding onto Bogaerts if I could.



    I've always thought overpaying at 1B is a bit reckless, since an average 1Bman has an OPS not far from the best ones, so the positional comparative added value is minimized, but this Stanton guys is out of this world!




    Stanton plays Right Field. 40 jacks in right field is about as good as it's ever going to get.



    My bad. I was confusing him with Freddie Freeman.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to toccooa's comment:

    However, if we are, I'd rather just pay the 10M , keep him, and compete in 2013.  The return that you have listed (part of a deal for JUPP, but not the centerpiece) doesnt blow me away.  I think a lineup w/ Ellsbury, Pedey, Ortiz, JUPP, Napoli, Middlebrooks competes for the division

    False assumption that Ellsbury leaving or staying is a litmus test for "competing in 2013". Dealing away Ellsbury and his draft pick will save a top young farm prospect, in addition to getting rid of that face and adding the new face of the Red Sox OF.

    The Red Sox always talk about "competing for the division", but it's talk. The reality is that the Red Sox have been butchered by incompetent middle management and need to focus on simply making a rare recent times return to the playoffs.



    To clarify: I only meant to imply that if we are competing in 2013, I think Ells could be a valuablerole player and that I'd rather retain him (rolling the dice because his downside is DL'd for 2/3 of the season) than deal him for a slight return.




    I'd trade Ellsbury to Cinci for Cingrani and Corcino, but I just don't love Justin Upton as much as the rest of you guys. There's nothing about him that screams this is the guy we've been missing since Manny started mailing it in. Giancarlo Stanton on the other hand...



    How many 24 year old guys have over 1800 PAs and an OPS of over .765 since 2009?

    1- Upton at .842 in that 4 year stretch.

    How many 24 year old guys have over 1920 PAs and an OPS over .695 since 2009?

    1- Upton (.842).

    That's 150 points higher than his closest competition at this sample size.

    Yes, Stanton (just turned 23), Longoria (just turned 27), Butler (turns 27 in April), Sandoval (will turn 27 next season) have a higher OPS from 2008-2012 (with less PAs), and I'd love to have any of them, but J Upton is the guy that is being shopped.

    Top WAR of players who werer 24 years old during the 4 year span of 2009-2012:

    Upton 16.7

    Longoria 15.3

    Andrus  13.9

    Heyward 13.7

    McCutcheon 13.2

    Sandoval  13.1

    Stanton  13.1

    J Bruce  10.3

    S Castro  9.1

    C Rasmus 7.8

    A Jackson 6.8

    C Maybin  6.3

    B Revere  5.1

    B Butler  5.1

     

    Last 2 years OPS combined with players 24 or under during anytime from 2011-2012:

    Stanton  .928

    Avila       .895

    Upton     .843

    McCutch .820

    Harper    .817

    Bruce      .814

    Freeman .795

    Heyward .771

    Bourjos    .765

    Castro      .763

     

    The idea behind getting Upton or someone else on this list is to break away from the mistakes of signing FAs at the end of their prime window to massive crippling contracts. While no player is a lock to perform as we wish, I'd rather gamble on Upton or Stanton than hamilton, Napoli, or some other hitter in their 30's.

    (Sidenote: I'm still putting acquiring a solid #1/2 slot starting pitcher as our #1 priority.)



    I'm probably painting Justin Upton with the same broad brush as his brother, as I have to admit I haven't followed him that closely. Your analysis tends to be fairly accurate moon, so I'm inclined to look at J Upton with a fresh eye. But I'm not sure I'd be willing to give up Bogaerts or Bradley for him, not to mention Rubby DLR for him and I think the price is likely to be all 3 plus some more. As far as that goes I think Bogaerts is likely to come up and give us everything J Upton could at the plate. And if Iggy doesn't start hitting he could be doing that next year. Bradley as you well know is the guy I think will replace Ells. If we could get Stanton though, I would empty the farm, holding onto Bogaerts if I could.



    I've always thought overpaying at 1B is a bit reckless, since an average 1Bman has an OPS not far from the best ones, so the positional comparative added value is minimized, but this Stanton guys is out of this world!




    Stanton plays Right Field. 40 jacks in right field is about as good as it's ever going to get.



    My bad. I was confusing him with Freddie Freeman.




    I dont think myself or carnie would object to acquiring J.Upton, I think its the cost (certain prospects) that we have a hard time with.

     
  25. This post has been removed.

     
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