Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

     

    If I was GM of the Red Sox,.....

    1. I would never walk away from the organization in a gorilla suit.
    2. I would not have two hitting coaches.
    3. I would replace beer and fried chicken with V8 and seafood salad. 

    LOL

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    If I was GM of the Red Sox,.....

    1. I would never walk away from the organization in a gorilla suit.
    2. I would not have two hitting coaches.
    3. I would replace beer and fried chicken with V8 and seafood salad. 

    LOL




    2 hitting coaches is actually a pretty good idea...Obviously one would be asst HC...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    If I was GM of the Red Sox,.....

    1. I would never walk away from the organization in a gorilla suit.
    2. I would not have two hitting coaches.
    3. I would replace beer and fried chicken with V8 and seafood salad. 

    LOL




    2 hitting coaches is actually a pretty good idea...Obviously one would be asst HC...



    I dont mind the two hitting coaches, but I dont think that addressing our coaching should be priority #1.  I think Valentine is a joke , but I dont blame him for 2012.  Honestly , I dont think coaches/managers are that important.  I feel that your GM is far more important, as it usually comes down to the players.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    Top WAR of players who werer 24 years old during the 4 year span of 2009-2012:

    Upton 16.7

    Longoria 15.3

    Andrus  13.9

    Heyward 13.7

    McCutcheon 13.2

    Sandoval  13.1

    Stanton  13.1

    J Bruce  10.3

    S Castro  9.1

    C Rasmus 7.8

    A Jackson 6.8

    C Maybin  6.3

    B Revere  5.1

    B Butler  5.1

     

    Last 2 years OPS combined with players 24 or under during anytime from 2011-2012:

    Stanton  .928

    Avila       .895

    Upton     .843

    McCutch .820

    Harper    .817

    Bruce      .814

    Freeman .795

    Heyward .771

    Bourjos    .765

    Castro      .763

     

    The idea behind getting Upton or someone else on this list is to break away from the mistakes of signing FAs at the end of their prime window to massive crippling contracts. While no player is a lock to perform as we wish, I'd rather gamble on Upton or Stanton than hamilton, Napoli, or some other hitter in their 30's.

    (Sidenote: I'm still putting acquiring a solid #1/2 slot starting pitcher as our #1 priority.)

     

    I'm not sure the comparison has that much meaning.  Most prospects are not brought up at an early age.  The fact that Upton was brought up in 2007 at age 19 doesn't add much value to the RS in 2013.  At the end of the day, it is just his projected WAR/$ that counts.

    Based on Bill James projections-

    • Player A .289/.372/.492/.864 with 25 HRs
    • Player B .284/.366/.457/.823 with 19 HRs

    Player B is a GG winner, and likely to be much cheaper in salary and prospects.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    Top WAR of players who werer 24 years old during the 4 year span of 2009-2012:

    Upton 16.7

    Longoria 15.3

    Andrus  13.9

    Heyward 13.7

    McCutcheon 13.2

    Sandoval  13.1

    Stanton  13.1

    J Bruce  10.3

     

    This is also kind of apples and oranges.  Upton had 2461 PAs during that time frame.  Since longoria turned 25 during that time frame, the 15.3 was earned over 1332 PAs.

    On a level basis of WAR/600 PAs, it becomes

    • Longoria 6.89
    • Stanton  5.32
    • Heyward 4.75
    • McCutc  4.34
    • Upton     4.07

    The only thing arriving in the pros at an earlier age does for us is to raise his salary.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Top WAR of players who werer 24 years old during the 4 year span of 2009-2012:

    Upton 16.7

    Longoria 15.3

    Andrus  13.9

    Heyward 13.7

    McCutcheon 13.2

    Sandoval  13.1

    Stanton  13.1

    J Bruce  10.3

     

    This is also kind of apples and oranges.  Upton had 2461 PAs during that time frame.  Since longoria turned 25 during that time frame, the 15.3 was earned over 1332 PAs.

    On a level basis of WAR/600 PAs, it becomes

    • Longoria 6.89
    • Stanton  5.32
    • Heyward 4.75
    • McCutc  4.34
    • Upton     4.07

    The only thing arriving in the pros at an earlier age does for us is to raise his salary.



    A fair point raised here, but those 5 guys all look great to me. Also, the experienced gained by Upton through more PAs, while effecting his WAR per 600 PAs to the negative in comparrison to these others, should not be viewed as an overall negative.  He may have some advantage over some of these guys due to more ML experience.

    Also, how many other guys on teh above list are available?

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    Wow, softy calling someone else "correct". (Maybe it was himself as an alter ego)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to redsoxpride34's comment:

    its being reported that justin upton is likely to be moved this often and could be moved soon. Rangers are in the mix but have refused to give up profar or andrus for upton. It is said that the dbacks want a 3rd basemen and/or a ss for upton. I doubt the sox move middlebrooks, and its likely towers doesnt want iglesias, but how bout checcini and marrero for upton? dbacks gets the 2 positions they need and sox get the outfielder/big bat they need. Upton makes too much sense for the sox not to really try and get him. The sox need a middle of the order bat to replace gonzo and upton is 25 yrs old and is that guy. just 2 years ago he hit 33 homers. We have the pieces to get him. He has the potential to put up miguel cabrera type numbers. And he is young, plays a position we need and hits right handed. What do you guys think? On a side note, the dbacks are open to moving trevor bauer, shoud the sox try to land both in blockbuster deal? I would give up barnes/webster, checcini, marrero and perhaps an outfield prospect for bauer and upton. Make it happen ben. This is your chance to land your centerpiece. 

    I don't get the obsession with Juston Upton other than his offense/OBP which would certainly help if he can sustain the same numbers against AL pitching.  He is not a very sure handed OF so it would be a trade off but hes still young and could improve.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

     1) While it is not a certainty, most players improve quite a bit after age 24.

     2) Many 24 year old or younger players who look promising have small ML sample sizes. J upton has a pretty large ML  sample size already.

     3) Not many up and coming top offensive players under age 25 are on the trading block right now.

     4) It's not an obsession, but rather a confluence of circumstances that brings his name to the top of the list.

    (I'd much rather have McCutcheon, but that is not going to happen.)

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    Upton turned 25 this year. Not that that matters, I was just wanted to mention it since hes being called 24.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    Still, he's just entering his early prime years.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to softlaw's comment:

     

    J. Upton is, I repeat, is worth our #1 prospect. J. Upton isn't much older than Bogaerts and already has a MLB career record that is manifest with proven production at an elite level vs. peers in his age group.

    Upton is 5 years older than Bogaerts, so No, hes a lot older. Proven inconsistent production. Just look at the numbers, they dont lie.

    I get it, southpaux=incomeptent=Cherry. Since when do you hang on to a RH top prospect for a proven almost as young MLB everyday postion player?

    ahhh, more adolescent names, cute. I hang on to a #1 prospect when I can have him on the team for 6+years compared to 3 for a heck of a lot less. Also Bogaerts, by many scouts accounts, is the real deal. Upton hasnt proven that he can hit MLB pitching consistently. Hes also not that great defensively and gets caught stealing half the time, so hes not a smart base runner either.

    Since when have the Red Sox had any high percentage success in projecting farm prospects.

    Many scouts from other teams say the same thing, so its not just the Sox' scouts.

    The reality is that it is rare for there to be more than a few MLB "can't miss MLB career starter higher league level production"?

    Upton hasnt proven anything yet except potential.

    Bradley, Jr and J. Upton is the mark of competent GM. The market of an incompetent GM is to pay 10 million FA ticket to Ellsbury and pretend that there's more long term value and fit in hanging on to Bogaerts.

    Were not talking about Ellsbury.

    Song, Marte, Bowden, Anderson, Westmorland, Ranaudo

    Take a look at the above #1 prospects.

    There are plenty of #1's that went on to have great careers as well, so whats your point?

    Anyone want to defend holding back the #1 prospect for J. Upton?

    Bogaerts goes nowhere

     




     



    The mysterious case of the missing posts.

     
  15. This post has been removed.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:

    As I stated, over, and over, and over, and over, Bogaerts was not likely required to top the trade market for J. Upton acquisition. Noteworthy that a poster who has stated "clubhouse cancer and overrated" in advocating to ignore J. Upton trade makret went to great lengths to sell the notion that Bogaerts was an altenrative, which was never even an issue.



    You were the one who tried to "sell the notion that Bogaerts was an alternative", and not it was never an issue, because Ellsbury was never going to be part of a trade to AZ. Your backtracking to include a 3rd team was too late and still way off.

    AZ would not have taken your offer, so the likely would have insisted on Bogaerts to help offset the cost of taking on Jacoby's contract and not getting Middlebrooks..

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    Softlaw:

    "J. Upton is, I repeat, is worth our #1 prospect."

    "The market of an incompetent GM is to pay 10 million FA ticket to Ellsbury and pretend that there's more long term value and fit in hanging on to Bogaerts."

    "Anyone want to defend holding back the #1 prospect for J. Upton?"

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    Softlaw:

    "J. Upton is, I repeat, is worth our #1 prospect."

    "The market of an incompetent GM is to pay 10 million FA ticket to Ellsbury and pretend that there's more long term value and fit in hanging on to Bogaerts."

    "Anyone want to defend holding back the #1 prospect for J. Upton?"




    Good job dd. I've missed the softlaw truth crusade.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Only Anderson made it to #1. Bowden and Ranaudo to #2, Wesymoreland #4

    You are using a list among many subjective lists, as bugaboo for a specious claim.

    And what was the list you used? "Objective"? I used soxprospects.com- a very repsectable list and one that has shown their ordering is pretty accurate over the years.

    Anyone dare to claim that a #1 Red Sox RH can miss prospect this month on one of many lists, at leasts 2 or 3 years away from playing enough MLB to be equipped to excel at the MLB level, anyone foolish enough to claim that sending Bogaerts is a deal breaker when acquiring J. Upton?

    Is this supposed to make sense? I have no clue what you are saying or who you are directing this at.

    Yes, we have such fools who claim that Bogaerts, at least 2 or 3 years away from being more than an inxeperienced MLB roookie, is more important to hang on to than to acquire J. Upton. LMAO!

    Weren't you the one who excluded Boagerts from your list of players AZ could choose from until just a few days ago, when you added "if they insist on Bogaerts..." 

    I suppose you must be LYAO at yourself then.

     

      

    Some pretty good low cost top propsects made it bigtime.

    Weaker than "job creation v. total people unemployed". The number of "top prospects" in MLB, not on one team's list, that make like Justin Upton has already made it is a tiny percentage.

    HanRam, Papelbon and Buch are in the same league as Upton. That's 3 out of the 8 guys who have been #1 over the last 10 years. I wouldn't call 3/8 a "tiny percentage".

    Look, I'm all for trading for Upton. I'd prefer to trade Bradley and the others I specifically listed than Bogaerts, but I'd part with Bogaerts if needed as well. The difference is that I don't need to lie, distort, or delude myself to make my points.

     




      You'd have traded Bogaerts?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    softy is not the only person with doubts about Bogaerts defense.

    We could trade Bogaerts, Cecchini and 2 of Aceves, Morales and Doubront, but I think AZ might want more immediate SS & 3B help- not players 1-2 years away.

     



    Moon, Boegarts' defensive liabilities have more to do with things such as "footwork," and other "issues" that can be fixed through hard work, which isn't an issue with this kid.  He's very athletic, he has a strong arm and solid range.  Some say he may "grow out of the position," but that remains to be seen.  If Hanley Ramirez had this kid's makeup, I don't think Hoyer, Cherington and Lucchino would have made the Beckett deal. 

     

    I just don't think they would consider moving Boegarts at all right now, especially for a guy like Upton, but we will see...

     




     

    I'm not sure he grows into a plus defensive SS, but it's early yet. Here's what soxprospects has to say about his defense:

    Slightly above-average arm. Solid-average range, but losing footspeed as he gets bigger. Needs to slow the game down defensively and resist the feeling to rush plays. Inconsistent with footwork and staying down on the ball. Choppy at times with his movements and reactions. Has been improving with his defensive technique, but does not look likely to stick at shortstop. Will transition to third base or left field down the line. Can stick on the infield.

    I think we can get Upton & Anderson by trading Bradley and others, and hopefully keep Bogaerts and Barnes.

    If AZ insisted on Bogaerts for Upton, I'd say yes, but I'd want to lower the value of the additional players to offset the loss of Bogaerts.

     

     

     




    Bogaerts and others?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Only Anderson made it to #1. Bowden and Ranaudo to #2, Wesymoreland #4

    You are using a list among many subjective lists, as bugaboo for a specious claim.

    And what was the list you used? "Objective"? I used soxprospects.com- a very repsectable list and one that has shown their ordering is pretty accurate over the years.

    Anyone dare to claim that a #1 Red Sox RH can miss prospect this month on one of many lists, at leasts 2 or 3 years away from playing enough MLB to be equipped to excel at the MLB level, anyone foolish enough to claim that sending Bogaerts is a deal breaker when acquiring J. Upton?

    Is this supposed to make sense? I have no clue what you are saying or who you are directing this at.

    Yes, we have such fools who claim that Bogaerts, at least 2 or 3 years away from being more than an inxeperienced MLB roookie, is more important to hang on to than to acquire J. Upton. LMAO!

    Weren't you the one who excluded Boagerts from your list of players AZ could choose from until just a few days ago, when you added "if they insist on Bogaerts..." 

    I suppose you must be LYAO at yourself then.

     

      

    Some pretty good low cost top propsects made it bigtime.

    Weaker than "job creation v. total people unemployed". The number of "top prospects" in MLB, not on one team's list, that make like Justin Upton has already made it is a tiny percentage.

    HanRam, Papelbon and Buch are in the same league as Upton. That's 3 out of the 8 guys who have been #1 over the last 10 years. I wouldn't call 3/8 a "tiny percentage".

    Look, I'm all for trading for Upton. I'd prefer to trade Bradley and the others I specifically listed than Bogaerts, but I'd part with Bogaerts if needed as well. The difference is that I don't need to lie, distort, or delude myself to make my points.

     

     




      You'd have traded Bogaerts?

     




    Yes, as a last resort, but if Bogaerts was added to the deal, I'd have taken away from the back end of the deal.

    I wanted to trade Bradley not Bogaerts, and I said it often, but as it appears, we probably could have gotten him for some of the offers I mentioned that did not include any of the big 3 Bs.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    softy is not the only person with doubts about Bogaerts defense.

    We could trade Bogaerts, Cecchini and 2 of Aceves, Morales and Doubront, but I think AZ might want more immediate SS & 3B help- not players 1-2 years away.




    Bogaerts

    Cecchini

    2 of Aceves, Doubrount Morales

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    softy is not the only person with doubts about Bogaerts defense.

    We could trade Bogaerts, Cecchini and 2 of Aceves, Morales and Doubront, but I think AZ might want more immediate SS & 3B help- not players 1-2 years away.

     




    Bogaerts

     

    Cecchini

    2 of Aceves, Doubrount Morales



    Yeah, we "could have" traded them. I was clear about not wanting Boggy as part of the deal.

    I never called our other posters for not wanting to trade Boggy, then deny it like the silly clown.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    If I sign Napoli , first : I'm willing to give up more for JUPP.  Because it means that the future has become the present (a good thing).

    If I sign Napoli: I'm willing to go 2 of our top 5 prospects, and 2 others (but I'd try to keep De La Rosa).  I'd offer Webster, Lavrnaway, Brentz, and Cecchini

     



    It's going to take giving up Bogaerts, Bradley or Barnes. If it was up to me, I'd give Bradley, but that might be their last choice of the big 3 B's. They may not even want an OF'er in return, so maybe scratch Brentz as well. I think they want more ML ready players. I suggested:

     

    2 of: Aceves, Morales, Doubront, or Tazawa

    Bradley (This may have to be Bogaerts instead.)

    Vinicio or T. Lin (or if push comes to shove Cecchini)  




    Bradley "may have to be Bogaerts

    2 of Aceves Morales Doubront or Tazawa

    vinicio or T. Lin(or if push comes to shove Cecchini)

     

     
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