Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaBlade. Show DaBlade's posts

    Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    Personally I have no problem with the move to make him a starter, I think he could be a great starter given the opportunity to struggle through the growing pains. My issue is with management for not bringing in a pitcher at least a .500 guy who can eat up 200+ innings. There are too many ??????????? with this rotation and when you add in the bull pen issues it makes people want to move him back to the pen practicly regardless of if he was 3-0 or 0-3 doesn't matter.

    I guess the only thing I would say in this situation is tell him basicly he is in the rotation for the first half and then the pen for the second half unless he sets the mound on fire the rest of the way.

    Had a friend say the other day..."Anyone have Wakefields number? LOL"
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    I think Bard is OK as a starter.  The problem is that they created a huge gaping hole in the BP when they moved him to starter.  They want 200 innings out of him instead of what he would have thrown as a closer.

    Problem is, as a starter, he's impacting 30 games.  But as a closer, he's impacting 70 games. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    I think Bard is OK as a starter.  The problem is that they created a huge gaping hole in the BP when they moved him to starter.  They want 200 innings out of him instead of what he would have thrown as a closer. Problem is, as a starter, he's impacting 30 games.  But as a closer, he's impacting 70 games. 
    Posted by DirtyWaterLover


    That is most certainly a 2 way street, for the exact reason you posted, as a starter he is impacting 200 innings, as a reliever 70 innings.  The prevailing wisdom is that if a guy can give you 200 innings as an effective starter, that is always more valuable than 70 innings as an effective reliever.

    The fact that Bailey is hurt and the remaining bullpen is a mess, doesn't change the fact that all things being equal, Bard's long term value to the Red Sox is greater as a starter than a reliever.

    The Red Sox are taking on serious water right now and they hope moving Bard to the bullpen plugs one the holes.  I for one remain more intrigued by the potential starting pitcher that I saw on Patriot's Day.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    The fact that Bailey is hurt and the remaining bullpen is a mess, doesn't change the fact that all things being equal, Bard's long term value to the Red Sox is greater as a starter than a reliever ...  I for one remain more intrigued by the potential starting pitcher that I saw on Patriot's Day.
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards


    +1 and very well put.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : That is most certainly a 2 way street, for the exact reason you posted, as a starter he is impacting 200 innings, as a reliever 70 innings.  The prevailing wisdom is that if a guy can give you 200 innings as an effective starter, that is always more valuable than 70 innings as an effective reliever. The fact that Bailey is hurt and the remaining bullpen is a mess, doesn't change the fact that all things being equal, Bard's long term value to the Red Sox is greater as a starter than a reliever. The Red Sox are taking on serious water right now and they hope moving Bard to the bullpen plugs one the holes.  I for one remain more intrigued by the potential starting pitcher that I saw on Patriot's Day.
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards


    That's a part of the prevailing wisdom that I guess I'm not buying into. In my mind a closer who can save 30 games is more valuable than a starter who goes 18-12 (or any other reasonable number). 

    Of course, the rub comes in who they're replacing.  If a starter goes 18-12 and is replacing someone who's going to go 5-18, that's a significant advantage. If a closer saves 30 games and replaces someone who will save 25 games then that person is more valuable as a starter.

    This is always a guessing game until the season is over but right now I don't see the Sox as having someone available whose name isn't Bard who's going to save 20 games while I can see Bard possibly having 30+ saves.  At the same time I think they may be able to come up with a #4 starter who can go 10-12, and that makes Bard more valuable as a closer.

    As I said, it's all speculation and I'm the first to admit that last year Bard didn't exactly make us want to name the bullpen after him either, but right now I think he's the best closer on the team.  When Bailey comes back, move him back to the rotation.  The oft-maligned Tim Wakefield filled both spots as did Derek Lowe, so it CAN be done.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In my mind a closer who can save 30 games is more valuable than a starter who goes 18-12 (or any other reasonable number).  
    Posted by S5


    No.  By your logic Sergio Santos is worth about as much as CC Sabathia which is clearly not the case.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : That's a part of the prevailing wisdom that I guess I'm not buying into. In my mind a closer who can save 30 games is more valuable than a starter who goes 18-12 (or any other reasonable number).  Of course, the rub comes in who they're replacing.  If a starter goes 18-12 and is replacing someone who's going to go 5-18, that's a significant advantage. If a closer saves 30 games and replaces someone who will save 25 games then that person is more valuable as a starter. This is always a guessing game until the season is over but right now I don't see the Sox as having someone available whose name isn't Bard who's going to save 20 games while I can see Bard possibly having 30+ saves.  At the same time I think they may be able to come up with a #4 starter who can go 10-12, and that makes Bard more valuable as a closer. As I said, it's all speculation and I'm the first to admit that last year Bard didn't exactly make us want to name the bullpen after him either, but right now I think he's the best closer on the team.  When Bailey comes back, move him back to the rotation.  The oft-maligned Tim Wakefield filled both spots as did Derek Lowe, so it CAN be done.
    Posted by S5


    Yes, Bard to the pen is a move of necessity right now b/c of injury (Bailey) and the ineffectiveness of the rest of the pen.  My concern is that this reactionary move to address a problem that management created, is short term thinking, that in the long term doesn't benefit Bard or the Sox. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : No.  By your logic Sergio Santos is worth about as much as CC Sabathia which is clearly not the case.
    Posted by 111SoxFan111


    Papelbon went 4-1 and saved 31 games last year for the Sox with three blown saves. Sabathia went 19-8 for the Yankees. The argument can be made that while Sabathia was +11, Papelbon was +3 in W/L and +28 in saves. 

    Even assuming CC was replaced by a .500 pitcher that would have cost the Y's 7.5 wins over the same number of starts.  Paps was more valuable to the Sox because they had no one to replace him.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jpBsSoxFan. Show jpBsSoxFan's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : That is most certainly a 2 way street, for the exact reason you posted, as a starter he is impacting 200 innings, as a reliever 70 innings.  The prevailing wisdom is that if a guy can give you 200 innings as an effective starter, that is always more valuable than 70 innings as an effective reliever. The fact that Bailey is hurt and the remaining bullpen is a mess, doesn't change the fact that all things being equal, Bard's long term value to the Red Sox is greater as a starter than a reliever. The Red Sox are taking on serious water right now and they hope moving Bard to the bullpen plugs one the holes.  I for one remain more intrigued by the potential starting pitcher that I saw on Patriot's Day.
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards

    I agree he has pitched ok but he has control problems. He did walk 7 on Patriots Day which ultimately led to his demise.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : I agree he has pitched ok but he has control problems. He did walk 7 on Patriots Day which ultimately led to his demise.
    Posted by jpBsSoxFan


    Well he was left in 2 batters too long, both walks.  I'd say 6+ SO innings and then tiring and losing command at 100 pitches is pretty good for a second career start.

    His first start he gave up 1 double and a bunch of singles, so in neither start was he in any way hit hard.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : Papelbon went 4-1 and saved 31 games last year for the Sox with three blown saves. Sabathia went 19-8 for the Yankees. The argument can be made that while Sabathia was +11, Papelbon was +3 in W/L and +28 in saves.  Even assuming CC was replaced by a .500 pitcher that would have cost the Y's 7.5 wins over the same number of starts.  Paps was more valuable to the Sox because they had no one to replace him.
    Posted by S5


    It isn't a straight up comparison though.  Most teams in MLB have a closer who succeeds 80%+ of the time and you really only need 1.  There are not a lot of starters who win 60% of the time and you need 5.

    The fact the Red Sox didn't have a replacement for Papelbon increases Papelbon's value to the Red Sox but it doesn't increase the value of the role of the closer vs. value of a starter.  Likewise, because the Red Sox Bullpen is currently a mess, it doesn't mean that Bard has more value as a relief pitcher than as a starter, it means the Red Sox have more need in the Bullpen. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : That's a part of the prevailing wisdom that I guess I'm not buying into. In my mind a closer who can save 30 games is more valuable than a starter who goes 18-12 (or any other reasonable number).  Of course, the rub comes in who they're replacing.  If a starter goes 18-12 and is replacing someone who's going to go 5-18, that's a significant advantage. If a closer saves 30 games and replaces someone who will save 25 games then that person is more valuable as a starter. This is always a guessing game until the season is over but right now I don't see the Sox as having someone available whose name isn't Bard who's going to save 20 games while I can see Bard possibly having 30+ saves.  At the same time I think they may be able to come up with a #4 starter who can go 10-12, and that makes Bard more valuable as a closer. As I said, it's all speculation and I'm the first to admit that last year Bard didn't exactly make us want to name the bullpen after him either, but right now I think he's the best closer on the team.  When Bailey comes back, move him back to the rotation.  The oft-maligned Tim Wakefield filled both spots as did Derek Lowe, so it CAN be done.
    Posted by S5


    I think it's very difficult to compare stats for a starter vs. stats for a reliever.  I think ERA, for example, is a great stat for starters but a terrible stat for relievers. 

    I'm not sure innings pitched by itself is a very good measure.  I think the count should be adjusted for the inning.  A 9th inning, for example, is worth 2 while a 1st inning might be worth 1/2.  Maybe innings where the pitcher held the lead is worth more than innings when the lead was blown.

    I guess my point is not all innings are created equal.
     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from lardin. Show lardin's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : It isn't a straight up comparison though.  Most teams in MLB have a closer who succeeds 80%+ of the time and you really only need 1.  There are not a lot of starters who win 60% of the time and you need 5. The fact the Red Sox didn't have a replacement for Papelbon increases Papelbon's value to the Red Sox but it doesn't increase the value of the role of the closer vs. value of a starter.  Likewise, because the Red Sox Bullpen is currently a mess, it doesn't mean that Bard has more value as a relief pitcher than as a starter, it means the Red Sox have more need in the Bullpen. 
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards


    I think you have to look at the staff as a whole.  Bard looks good as a starter.  Maybe he should stay there.  But the question is what makes the Sox a better team?  Bard in the rotation with the current Bullpen or Cook in the rotation and Bard in the Pen? 
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : I think you have to look at the staff as a whole.  Bard looks good as a starter.  Maybe he should stay there.  But the question is what makes the Sox a better team?  Bard in the rotation with the current Bullpen or Cook in the rotation and Bard in the Pen? 
    Posted by lardin


    IMO this team is better if they put a small yellow dog in the rotation and Bard back in the pen!  At least SYD only has to pitch every 6th day, and Bard will get to go three or four times a week.  These guys who are starting games need to know that there's someone at the back end of the game who's going to be there to hold the fort in the 9th. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : I think you have to look at the staff as a whole.  Bard looks good as a starter.  Maybe he should stay there.  But the question is what makes the Sox a better team?  Bard in the rotation with the current Bullpen or Cook in the rotation and Bard in the Pen? 
    Posted by lardin


    I don't disagree on the necessity of the move right now, I just think the long view on Bard and how he can ultimately be of the most value needs to be considered. Reactionary moves are seldom smart.  Bard is being moved back to the Pen because Bobby V and Cherrington look bad right now.  And this idea that it is temporary is sillyness, after the BP performance on Saturday, if Bard throws well out of the pen, are they really just going to put him back in the rotation?  No.

    Is it better to plug this hole now or is it better to see if Bard can excel as a starter, which in the long run, is of more value to the Red Sox? 

    It kinda feels like they are using life vests and rescue flares to plug holes on a sinking ship.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    It's stupid to do anything reactionary right now.  Bard could be an ace starter, and it's where he wants to be.  I don't hear anybody crying to move Lester to the bullpen.

    Aceves will not finish the year with a 24 ERA.  The bullpen, even if not a single change is made, will not finish with a 9 ERA.  We have three all-stars in the rotation.  Things will get better.
      
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from stuartr29. Show stuartr29's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    Don't you think Bard could of stepped up said hey you need me in the bullpen, I will do what ever you need me to do for the team to win, unfortunatley players nowadays only think of themselves im very disappointed. Saying that as the manager you say to the pitcher tough we need you in the bullpen alot sooner then what they did. Redsox are being mismanaged into the ground.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from stuartr29. Show stuartr29's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    Slomag sounds like Bards agent.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from xXR3S1NXx. Show xXR3S1NXx's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    They need to find a spot for cook in the rotation. I just know if he's not brought up by may 1st and he gets the chance to opt out hes gonna go somewhere and be a nice piece in somones rotation.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from beavis. Show beavis's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In the rain delay last night - Karl Ravech point blank asked Tito: "Bard a bullpen guy or starter?" Tito, said he loved him in the back end of games, and that someday he will be a good starter. Tito also lamented that "Sox front office puts lots of credence on a guy that gives 200 innings" Not exactly these words.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    A couple of things:

    They say Bard will make his next start on Friday, so he is only in the bullpen so he doesn't go 10 days without pitching.  He will probably get an inning or two tonight or tomorrow.  Also, Bard himself says don't have him pitch back-to-back games, as he hasn't done that.  

    How many games has a lead been lost in the 9th?  I can only think of one (and of course it was also lost again later in the game).  Aceves has 2 saves and 1 BS in the 9th (the one Saturday was in the 8th, where he would have probably come in even if Bard was the closer).  So, maybe Bard would have saved one more game.  He may have also blown one that Aceves saved, we don't know.  

    I was for Bard as the closer when they let Papelbon go.  But now that they have moved him in the rotation, and he wants to be there, I wouldn't mess with that too much.  I agree it will be difficult once Cook and Dice are back.  Doubront has been the best starter thus far and you are not going to see Lester, Beckett and/or Buchholz moved to the pen.  
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from 6k42lt913c. Show 6k42lt913c's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    Many of you should watch the pregame and listen to what Bard had to say on this. If you are outside of NESN territory then you can get it on DirecTV by ordering the Sports Package for $11 per month. Bard wants to be a starter but knows the dire situation that the Sox are in and this was explained in detail this morning in the Cafardo column. At the moment he will miss only one start.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    Just take my take, but I don't think Bard will ever be an ace starter unless he can learn to throw an effective changeup. Both times I've seen him pitch his changeup has been sitting around 90 -92, that's not enough of a difference with his fastball to make it an effective pitch for him. It's very difficult to succeed as a 2 pitch pitcher in the rotation. On the other hand 2 pitches are generally enough for a reliever, even a closer.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from 6k42lt913c. Show 6k42lt913c's posts

    Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...

    In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...:
    Just take my take, but I don't think Bard will ever be an ace starter unless he can learn to throw an effective changeup. Both times I've seen him pitch his changeup has been sitting around 90 -92, that's not enough of a difference with his fastball to make it an effective pitch for him. It's very difficult to succeed as a 2 pitch pitcher in the rotation. On the other hand 2 pitches are generally enough for a reliever, even a closer.
    Posted by carnie


    “I’ve watched a couple of his starts and he still has the 97s and the 98s,” Girardi said, referring to the speed of Bard’s fastball.

    “He still has a good breaking ball and a good changeup. I was curious to see him as a starter. From what I saw he looked pretty good. His starts have been pretty decent. He’s a very talented kid.”

    Bard was coming off a hard-luck 1-0 home loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on April 16. He gave up four hits with seven walks on 111 pitches, yielding the lone run when he walked Evan Longoria with the bases loaded in the seventh.

     
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