Re: Kemp trade re-opens and Sox again interested
posted at 7/17/2014 10:35 AM EDT
See and this is why I can’t take a lot of you people seriously. (And to be fair, many of my posts shouldn’t be taken seriously as well, although I am usually pretty blatant in that regard.) Many of you get too focused on individual stats that need to be “replaced.”
“Who is going to steal all Ellsbury’s bases?” “We need more home runs!!” “Where are all our lost HBP going to come from?”
These are fine strategies for your fantasy league, where that kind of stuff matters, but you don’t fix an offense by getting “home runs” and “stolen bases.”
Last week, not to single him out, but dannycater threw the name Trumbo out there as a hitter the Sox could use because of his prodigious power number., and the logic was obvious. But flawed in my opinion. You go get a guy because he hits 30 home runs in 650 PA, and then what happens in his other 620 plate appearances’? Sure, one could argue that those 30 home runs might win 30 games, but, guess what? They won’t. In fact, at least 20 of them will come when the game is all but decided one way or the other. So now you are hoping for maybe 10 clutch home runs? You won’t get that many. Maybe Not everyone has the same flair for the dramatic as David Ortiz. In fact, no one else does.
And power can come from anywhere. Raise your hand if, in March, you thought ANY the following names would still be in the top 20 in MLB in home runs in mid-July: Brandon Moss, Victor Martinez, Josh Donaldson, George Springer, Chris Carter, Brian Dozier, Nelson Cruz, Todd Frazier, and Marlon Byrd. That’s 45% of the list who are not among the usual suspects. From last year’s top ten HR hitters, only Edwin Encarnacion is among the top 20 this year. The stat bounces around more than many people realize.
The Sox don’t need to focus on “home run hitters” just because that stat is down. They need to focus on hitters period, and let the home runs take care of themselves, the way they always do. Getting guys like Kemp because he can hit home runs (and, better yet, “be a monster at Fenway”) has way more chance of being a disastrous move that does neither.
Kemp is an awful idea for a lot of reasons, most of which center around the fact that it isn’t 2010 anymore. Back when Kemp was putting up the numbers his proponets are buying into, guys like Curtis Granderson and Ryan Howard were among the game’s top offensive players and Dan Uggla and Mark Reynolds actually mattered with a bat in their hands. Should the Sox investigate those players, too?
Ironically, all of them are probably better choices, since at least they aren’t $20mill albatrosses more the next 4 seasons.
OK, maybe not Howard. He’s a worse choice than Kemp…