Re: KEVIN MILLAR breaks down GENERATION K, ELLS and speaks truth to POWER!
posted at 5/18/2013 1:39 PM EDT
In response to softlaw2's comment:
I hope just maybe some of the so called fans of the game realize why his game is faltering. Kevin Millar obviously does. Money and the dreams of Boras negotiating some zillion dollar deal for him! He took his eyes off the prize.
And I assume you know this because Ellsbury told you? Save this psychobabble. 9-10 times, these are simple slumps that every player has
Joe, "psychobabble" is right alongside "hater" on the 90's political swords list. I know you have nothing on the merits.
Let's sober up there, Joe, and look at Ellsbury over 2500 plate appearances sample:
BA .293 OBP .346 SLG .435 OPS .781 Career
BA .247 OBP .312 SLG .346 OPS .658 2013 182 AB's
It's pretty clear what kind of hitter Ellsbury is, by looking at his career numbers. The obvious reasons those BA and OBP numbers are down isn't "a slump over the last 485 AB's from 2012 to date is that he's trying to "swing for the fences". What Ellsbury tells or doesn't tell means nothing when it comes to the big sample.
I wrote on here a while back that Ellsbury's approach to swing for the fences is a mistake and he and his agent are rolling the dice on marketing him as a player he isn't and will never be. He should be bunting more and chipping the ball more and getting his OBP up, not trying to drive the ball.
Kevin is on the money on the issue of most young professional baseball player. They know where the biggest money is.
Whoever offers Ellsbury a multi-year contract should be smart enough to understand they will be getting the following:
Age 30 and beyond player who relies mostly on speed. Has an impotent throwing arm and relies on speed to make up for a lot of poor breaks and routes (CF should be the best fielding OF'er). As for plate work and running the bases, you will get something very close to the following over the course of that contract:
You will get, at best, 3 out of 4 years of about 140 games or more played per season
For the seasons he isn't on the DL a lot, you will get, at best, the season median averages of:
BA .293 OBP .346 SLG .435 OPS .781 SB 45 HR 16
Other factors on the contract offer will be the fact that speed declines with age and Ellsbury has zero proven team leadership success history in college or professional baseball. In addition, though it's weak in application, MLB finally has a blood test for Human Growth Hormone and other PED's.
Best case, you get a player who is 1 out of 4 years not playing MLB, who is an above average leadoff hitter and an average overall defensive CF'er, who is not going to be a productive slugging profile. Because of his age and skillset (speed), going 4 years is a risk, but going beyond that is a likely platoon bench guy, at best.
Cherry is safe making the qualifying offer, because Notin is dead wrong if he thinks Ellsbury and his agent have enough belief that they are going to turn down 3 or more years contract offers to roll the dice another year.
Some of the non-small market NL teams GM's who need a leadoff hitter and CF should bid up to the following on the value front:
4 years base 12
Once Ellsbury is under longer term contract, NL managment can get him to start bunting more and getting on base more and ditching the approach of trying to drive a lot of pitches.
Ellsbury is a terrible value and fit for the Red Sox, as popular a player as he has been.
I agree and also posted why his numbers inflated in 2011 on another thread. He is, and should act exactly like the player you described.
As for SB1's assumption Ells is going for the money...He has Boras for his agent, he has not wanted to sign an extension from the word go, Hes banking on 2011 numbers to get him as close to 20M as he can. The way he has approached his game this year has suggested, to me anyway, that hes trying to be that power guy.
Hes trying to pull everything and over swinging resulting in rolling over the ball, thus resulting in weak popups and little squibbers to the right side. He should be bunting more like Vic, going the opposite way with outside pitches and just trying to get on base to use his speed to steal bags. All this tells me that he looking for that big payday. Now, I dont blame anyone for trying to maximize their worth financially. But dont try and be something your not.
His value is going to go down further if he continues to try and be something hes not.
(these are just the opinions of one fan and knowledgable baseball person. I dont claim to be 100% right, but I stand by my words)