KEVIN MILLAR breaks down GENERATION K, ELLS and speaks truth to POWER!

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    Re: KEVIN MILLAR breaks down GENERATION K, ELLS and speaks truth to POWER!

    He should be bunting more like Vic, going the opposite way with outside pitches and just trying to get on base to use his speed to steal bags. All this tells me that he looking for that big payday.

    His spray chart this year is 25-96-36 (left to right)

    His career spray chart is 401-1218-554

    That looks almost identical.

    His GB-FB-LD

    Career 1056-674-408

    2013  80-43-34

    Pretty much the same, but with a few less flyballs.  So he isn't pulling the ball any more than usual, and he isn't hitting it in the air any more than usual.

    IRT bunting, sure, but he's never bunted.  He's bunted 34 times since 2007.  I wish he had been taught to bunt in the minors, but this doesn't look to have anything to do with this being his contract year.

     
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    Re: KEVIN MILLAR breaks down GENERATION K, ELLS and speaks truth to POWER!

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Agreed, South, and you fill have articulated the details.

    We're not referencing 2012. We're talking about 2013. Do try to follow the conversation.

    The thread is the conversation, and you didn't author the thread. You don't speak for "we". The last half of 2012 and the first quater of 2013 look about the same, and don't reflect "a simple slump". They reflect the wrong approach.

    Care to make a little tag bet on where his OPS is this year? Mano-a-mano. Give me a number.

    .781, plus or minus .20.

    Now, care to make "a little tag bet", Ellsbury fan. What's your season end contract offer to Ellsbury. Mano-a-mano. Give me a number.

    My offer is the CBO minimum qualifying offer, since I doubt the GM will take advantage of trading Ellsbury and getting a little better than the CBA draft compensation. 

    I finally found a way to live on these threads. When being badgered.Ignore! Softlaw I don't have to assume when saying that Boras is telling Ellsbury hit more HR's. His job is to get the most he can get for his client and he has the most expensive players in baseball,fact! So just like he did for Drew (JD) he sold them a bill of goods claiming a superior hitter with more than adequate power numbers. What did the Sox get from that little venture? Screwed! It's the same thing with Ellsbury...Don't bite Ben let him walk!!!!


     
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    Re: KEVIN MILLAR breaks down GENERATION K, ELLS and speaks truth to POWER!

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Agreed, South, and you fill have articulated the details.

    We're not referencing 2012. We're talking about 2013. Do try to follow the conversation.

    The thread is the conversation, and you didn't author the thread. You don't speak for "we". The last half of 2012 and the first quater of 2013 look about the same, and don't reflect "a simple slump". They reflect the wrong approach.

    Care to make a little tag bet on where his OPS is this year? Mano-a-mano. Give me a number.

    .781, plus or minus .20.

    Now, care to make "a little tag bet", Ellsbury fan. What's your season end contract offer to Ellsbury. Mano-a-mano. Give me a number.

    My offer is the CBO minimum qualifying offer, since I doubt the GM will take advantage of trading Ellsbury and getting a little better than the CBA draft compensation. 



    1-You think he'll hit his career numbers.  I can live with that.  Actually, I don't think he will, but I don't think he'll be way under.  That's my only point.  After all the mumbo-jumbo, he is just in a slump and will revert to his norm.

    2-We're in agreement on this as well, mostly.  I'd offer him the QO and be pretty pleased if he declined.  I'll take the pick and start JBJ unless JBJ completely tanks.

    3-The only place we disagree is that I don't think it would be worth trading him.  I wouldn't reject it out of hand, but I doubt anyone would offer us much more than what we'd get via the draft pick.  And the offer would have to materially better than the pick, or else why decrease out 2013 odds?  Just speculating here, but I'd have to see a top-50 prospect minimum in return.

     
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    Re: KEVIN MILLAR breaks down GENERATION K, ELLS and speaks truth to POWER!

    Big difference between a 28th to 33rd draft pick and a currently ranked top 100 prospect with a year of more minor league experience, which is what the Red Sox would get at a minimum. The Rangers sent more that than for a few months of Dempster.

    Villanueva was exactly #100, and I'd argue that Dempster then was worth more than Ellsbury is right now.  But like I said, if they can get a good prospect, I'd roll the dice.  I'm just not seeing anyone breaking down the door right now.

     
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    Re: KEVIN MILLAR breaks down GENERATION K, ELLS and speaks truth to POWER!

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    He should be bunting more like Vic, going the opposite way with outside pitches and just trying to get on base to use his speed to steal bags. All this tells me that he looking for that big payday.

    His spray chart this year is 25-96-36 (left to right)

    His career spray chart is 401-1218-554

    That looks almost identical.

    His GB-FB-LD

    Career 1056-674-408

    2013  80-43-34

    Pretty much the same, but with a few less flyballs.  So he isn't pulling the ball any more than usual, and he isn't hitting it in the air any more than usual.

    IRT bunting, sure, but he's never bunted.  He's bunted 34 times since 2007.  I wish he had been taught to bunt in the minors, but this doesn't look to have anything to do with this being his contract year.

     




    in 2011 he got a heavy dose of middle in FB and took advantage of them. He took almost all his HR to RF. Ells' is strong, so he can hit those ones out. Ells' is NOT your typical "power bat" like Middy, who can blast a ball 440ft to all fields. They are pitching him more outside when he returned last year into this year and he appears to be trying to pull the ball more and over swinging, thus resulting in weak pop ups and little grounders for outs. If he approached it differently, he would have more hits IMO.

     

    Now, sure, it could be a slump. But from what Ive seen, that "slump" could turn around with a different approach at the plate and the things I notice.

    I think he will be a little under his career norms this year.

     
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    Re: KEVIN MILLAR breaks down GENERATION K, ELLS and speaks truth to POWER!

    In response to stapleton's comment:

    Also....please explain what POWER Millar is speaking truth to.




    its a subtle play on words jabro... generation k = all these strikeout kids aiming for the fences with their power (in muscles and bat) and also the fact that ells seems to have lacked some JUICE lately in his bat. truth to power means its overrated in a team or winning context. u aint got it dont do it. millar said point blank that he never hit 30 HRs and he was still a winning ballplayer. stop playin for the contract. win and stuff takes care of itself.

     
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    Re: KEVIN MILLAR breaks down GENERATION K, ELLS and speaks truth to POWER!

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Villanueva was exactly #100, and I'd argue that Dempster then was worth more than Ellsbury is right now. 

    They received another prospect, in addition, even if the second prospect was much lower rated.

    Hard to submit that a mid 30's less than top tier starting pitcher has a higher market value than a 29 year old starting position player. I have little doubt that Ellsbury's market value is higher than that, but equal to that is plenty good enough to justify the trade.

    It's quite clear that Bradley never needed AAA experience. .304 and .414 OBP in Pawtucket takes care of that. He needs to adjust to MLB pitching, and that's best done by throwing him back in the fire. In CF, he's good enough defensively to not hurt the team from the bottom of the lineup as he learns to adjust and gains the necessary experience.

    I'd much rather put the time into Bradley and move Ellsbury's contract off the books in exchange for a better return that the draft compensation, which I have little doubt about the market will support that.

    Another  B I N G O  !! .........  That could happen, sooooooner, rather than later !!!


     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: KEVIN MILLAR breaks down GENERATION K, ELLS and speaks truth to POWER!

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Villanueva was exactly #100, and I'd argue that Dempster then was worth more than Ellsbury is right now. 

    They received another prospect, in addition, even if the second prospect was much lower rated.

    Hard to submit that a mid 30's less than top tier starting pitcher has a higher market value than a 29 year old starting position player. I have little doubt that Ellsbury's market value is higher than that, but equal to that is plenty good enough to justify the trade.

    It's quite clear that Bradley never needed AAA experience. .304 and .414 OBP in Pawtucket takes care of that. He needs to adjust to MLB pitching, and that's best done by throwing him back in the fire. In CF, he's good enough defensively to not hurt the team from the bottom of the lineup as he learns to adjust and gains the necessary experience.

    I'd much rather put the time into Bradley and move Ellsbury's contract off the books in exchange for a better return that the draft compensation, which I have little doubt about the market will support that.



    Well, I don't agree with the anticipated return, but other than that, the response was vintage Softlaw.  You can always get away with a weak bat, good glove #9 hitter.  There would be certain advantages to breaking JBJ in this year at #9, and breaking in Iggy at the #9 next year.

     
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