Lackey to Padres theory

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    Lackey to Padres theory

    Based on how the compensation negotiations ended, and the reports of what the Sox had asked for, coupled with San Diego's public desire to have Lackey on their roster, provided the Sox eat the contract, my theory is as follows:  Lackey goes to the Padres, and the Cubs eat most of his contract as the combined compensation for Theo and Jed Hoyer.  Thoughts?

     
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    Re: Lackey to Padres theory

    In Response to Lackey to Padres theory:
    Based on how the compensation negotiations ended, and the reports of what the Sox had asked for, coupled with San Diego's public desire to have Lackey on their roster, provided the Sox eat the contract, my theory is as follows:  Lackey goes to the Padres, and the Cubs eat most of his contract as the combined compensation for Theo and Jed Hoyer.  Thoughts?
    Posted by slomag


    Very interesting thought slomag.  Obviously all we are getting from the cubs for compensation is cash anyway.  No Garza, no Castro, and no top prospects.  If we send Lackey to San Diego for relatively cheap, we could possibly get a decent prospect from them and Chicago can help pay that salary off of our books.  I guess I can go for that.
     
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    Re: Lackey to Padres theory

    Slomag, I think you are way over-estimating the cost of buying out the one remaining year on Theo's contract and Hoyer's.

    Past precedent:

    Hector Trinidad, the minor league pitcher who topped out at Double-A after he went to the Twins as compensation for executive Andy MacPhail (Cubs) in 1994."

    McPhail had won 2 WS with a small market team

    Lackey has three years and $46.5 million remaining on his contract.  How much is Lackey worth to the Padres?  What kind of money would he get for a three year deal?  I'd guess he would only get a small base plus incentives deal at the moment.

     
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    Re: Lackey to Padres theory

    I'm just hoping we can pry Rafael Dolis from the Cubbies.
     
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    Re: Lackey to Padres theory

    The Padres would not pay more than $3 million/year for Lackey, if that, given his recent performance. That means the Cubs and Red Sox would be absorbing about $36 million. Split the $36 million down the middle. The Cubs cover $18 million, the Red Sox cover $18 million. That's a steep price for Epstein, but maybe the Cubs would go for it because they'd only be paying money and $18 million is a heck of a lot less than Lackey's full deal.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: Lackey to Padres theory

    Now whether or not this is plausible, I am all for it. Lackey gone #1 AND have the Cubs pay all or a large portion of his contract? It would be a no-brainer. It is one of those "to good to be true" scenarios though.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Lackey to Padres theory

    In Response to Re: Lackey to Padres theory:
    Slomag, I think you are way over-estimating the cost of buying out the one remaining year on Theo's contract and Hoyer's. Past precedent: Hector Trinidad, the minor league pitcher who topped out at Double-A after he went to the Twins as compensation for executive Andy MacPhail (Cubs) in 1994." McPhail had won 2 WS with a small market team Lackey has three years and $46.5 million remaining on his contract.  How much Lackey worth to the Padres?  What kind of money would he get for a three year deal?  I'd guess he would only get a small base plus incentives deal at the moment.
    Posted by tom-uk

    Maybe I am, but it's not just the Theo compensation - the Cubs also need to compensate the Padres for Jed Hoyer.  If Garza and Castro are a pipe-dream, and one or two top prospects would be fair (if the Cubs had any) then you would think a fair cash compensation would be in the $15M - $20M range for Theo, and maybe another $10M for Hoyer?  The Sox would probably also be willing to kick in some cash to get Lackey off the CBT.  Even the $7M they are saving from Theo's salary and bonus could be enough to close the gap.  



     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Lackey to Padres theory

    In Response to Re: Lackey to Padres theory:
    In Response to Re: Lackey to Padres theory : Maybe I am, but it's not just the Theo compensation - the Cubs also need to compensate the Padres for Jed Hoyer.  If Garza and Castro are a pipe-dream, and one or two top prospects would be fair (if the Cubs had any) then you would think a fair cash compensation would be in the $15M - $20M range for Theo, and maybe another $10M for Hoyer?  The Sox would probably also be willing to kick in some cash to get Lackey off the CBT.  Even the $7M they are saving from Theo's salary and bonus could be enough to close the gap.  
    Posted by slomag


    Then again the LAA traded for Wells last year.  I would put the  value much lower for both Jed and Theo. Less than 10M, but I hope you are right.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lackey to Padres theory

    How about Theo and Jenks for a low level prospect?
     
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