Re: Lackey: Will he age well going forward?
posted at 6/22/2013 9:52 AM EDT
In response to lasitter's comment:
Joebreidey: Cutting someone when they look bad guarantees that you pay the full contract and get nothing for them. That's why I say sell when someone's stock is high. In the coming weeks become pretty sure that Lackey's rebound is not a fluke. If he has good years this year and next and we do nothing, then we're just another bidder when he becomes a free agent.
The team is losing control of a lot of pitchers in between now and November 2015. It's going to take some serious money to retain some of them. Extending Lackey could be a way of keeping a pitching resource around during that transition that doesn't break the bank.
1-He'll be 37 when the contract expires. I would not expect him to be either healthy nor effective at that point.
2-If you like to sell when his price is high, wouldn't we be buying when his price is high?
3-Lots of teams will lose control of lots of SPs between now and 2016. You replace them. I'd like to extend Buchholz, we'd still have Doubront, and then we'd need 3 guys with a fairly deep minor league system.
4-Having said that, if he wanted to give us a deep, deep discount, we could probably afford to gamble $4-5M.
Using the Howard contract as an example, the contract wasn't a disaster for the Phillies because Howard declined. It was a disaster because they weren't compensated enough for all the risk they were taking. $25M is market value for a top 1B. By signing him to the same amount he would have gotten had he stayed healthy, they basically got no discount. If his health declined, or if his production declined, Philly got penalized. If he played well, the Phillies got nothing extra. When Gonzo signed early, he probably gave us about $1.5-2.0M per season discount, to offset the one-year risk.
Going back to Lackey, a 2.5 year risk is huge at his age and recent surgery risk. If he goes for another procedure, which is a material risk, he is probably finished. I'd be really happy to see him pitch well enough over the next 2.5 years to make letting him walk be a mistake.