Lavarnway Continues to Rake

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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : To me, as an athlete it is really hard to judge someone "athleticism" without keeping a few things in mind.  First you need to actually measure their raw  athleticism, how quick are they, how fast can he pop up to his feet, how fast they can release a throw.  While the fundamentals can be taught for all of these athletic talent has a natural component.  More importantly is how it is functional to the position played;  anyone can tell a model is hot by looking at her, but they walk down the runway for a reason.  How do raw athletic attributes convert into talent, and how is it measured?  One thing I have learned is you can't judge someones athleticism by just weight and height.....yes the 800 Lb gorilla in the room is likely not an athlete but you can't tell by looking at someone if they are flexible or inflexible, or whether or not they have more fast twitch/slow twitch muscle fibers.   Athletes come in all shapes and sizes and in some sports/positions size is more important to the function of the skill set needed than others. An example of this would be a defensive lineman in the NFL or a pitcher in baseball.  Other positions are much less important.  I would imagine the athleticism behind the plate is more related to the skill set and less than the raw build of an athlete.  At 6'4 220 LB's lavarnway doesn't seem to be much bigger than some hall of fame catchers (gary carter/ carlton fisk) So unless someone can show me some stats on his catch and release and his pop up time in comparission with other catching prospects...I don't know why anyone is going to question the athletic ability of Ryan Lavarnway. 
    Posted by ctredsoxfanhugh


    Well said!
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    I have seen a couple articles praising Lavarnway for his improved defense.  Here is a tid bit from weei.com:
    it is Lavarnway’s defense that will determine his future big league role. In that respect, after he made major strides in 2010, the Sox suggest that they have seen continued progress this year, even as they acknowledge that there .

    In 26 games behind the plate this year, he has gunned down 14 of 37 runners trying to steal, a 37.8 percent rate that is among the best in the Sox’ system. Interestingly, he has thrown out a higher percentage of base stealers than teammate Tim Federowicz, who is viewed as a terrific defensive catcher, and Lavarnway has also committed just one error this year (compared to seven by Federowicz).

    “On the defensive side, he’s continuing to show more consistency. I don’t think it’s picture perfect. I don’t know that it’s ever going to be picture perfect. But the guy’s thrown out a lot of baserunners, has one of the best caught-stealing numbers in our system,” said Hazen. “We just felt like he’s been in Double-A for close to a year, and we felt like it was sort of time to challenge him.”

    Sounds like he has an impressive arm behind the plate.  I couldn't find the article I was really looking for but the summary is that Lavarnway is an incredibly hard worker and is starting to open eyes with his improved defense.

     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : To me, as an athlete it is really hard to judge someone "athleticism" without keeping a few things in mind.  First you need to actually measure their raw  athleticism, how quick are they, how fast can he pop up to his feet, how fast they can release a throw.  While the fundamentals can be taught for all of these athletic talent has a natural component.  More importantly is how it is functional to the position played;  anyone can tell a model is hot by looking at her, but they walk down the runway for a reason.  How do raw athletic attributes convert into talent, and how is it measured?  One thing I have learned is you can't judge someones athleticism by just weight and height.....yes the 800 Lb gorilla in the room is likely not an athlete but you can't tell by looking at someone if they are flexible or inflexible, or whether or not they have more fast twitch/slow twitch muscle fibers.   Athletes come in all shapes and sizes and in some sports/positions size is more important to the function of the skill set needed than others. An example of this would be a defensive lineman in the NFL or a pitcher in baseball.  Other positions are much less important.  I would imagine the athleticism behind the plate is more related to the skill set and less than the raw build of an athlete.  At 6'4 220 LB's lavarnway doesn't seem to be much bigger than some hall of fame catchers (gary carter/ carlton fisk) So unless someone can show me some stats on his catch and release and his pop up time in comparission with other catching prospects...I don't know why anyone is going to question the athletic ability of Ryan Lavarnway. 
    Posted by ctredsoxfanhugh


    Hugh, as you probably know he is not fast or flexible. People who have seen him catch say he is real bad but then a lot of times they throw in things like "but he did throw out a runner while I was there today...etc". I've seen that happen in several scouting reports now. No one wants to even say definitively that they think he will make it as a catcher except guys like Hazen and Redsox staffers, minor league coaches and such.

    If I remember correctly his pop times are around 2.0 but I could be off on that. A little under that I think. 1.92 or so maybe? He was throwing out 37% of runners this year and had a decent percentage of runners thrown out last year as well. His arm is accurate and to me he's at least as quick in his pop times as Tek but I'm just guessing on that. Look at the Molina's. Being fat or big in general doesn't mean he can't throw out runners. The numbers are as good as any other catcher we have in mlb IMO.

    It's important to note that he was considered so bad defensively that he hasn't even caught much in the minors. Just trying to get the record straight here. He has defensive issues for sure. Instead of catching a lot of games they have had him in training. Taking tons of balls in the dirt and such outside of games and DH in games. It was considered to be faster development that way.  

    I'm just saying look at Victor. He can't be much slower than that. Guys like Fisk were not fast either. He reminds me quite a bit of Fisk BTW. Same gait around the bases. Similar swing. If anything he hits better to RF and has a shorter stroke. I am one of the few on soxprospects who appear to be genuinely excited about the guy. I'm a believer but it's based on things beyond the normal 5 tool analysis. I perhaps put too much emphasis on intelligence and achievements away from baseball but all those things are indicators to me. Big indicators. How hard will a guy work? How much does he strive for excellence in everything he chooses to do? It's an indicator. There are a lot of 5 tool guys who never really make it in mlb ( Lastings Milbridge and others?). 

    The raw power is so hard to find and he isn't a big HR / high strikeout guy. He's a clear middle of the order prospect. Look at some of the top propsects in the game like LaPorta and Montero. Lavarnway has put up better numbers in some instances, albeit at a little older age.

    I'm not saying he's as good a prospect as Montero but I am saying that before he is through it's absolutely possible that he ends up a better mlb player. I'm putting them in the same conversation, as controversial as that is around baseball. I like the trend lines. To me, at this point, they are about 50/50, but I'm sure that very few people would agree with me on that one. 
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    good post boomer, seems like you have a good grasp on the prospects.  I've been a fan for the past 20 years but as my Sox obsession has grown I've found myself following the minor leaguers a lot more the last 2 years.

    It's looking more and more likely that Lavarnway will be a stud middle of the order like bat and if he struggles with the glove they will find a spot for him on the roster if he excels with his bat. 
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    Could happen? Who in there right mind is offering Ortiz anything more than one year? The Yankees already have enough DH types clogging the lineup. No way they even have remote interest in another player in his twilight. Sox offer Ortiz 1 year at $6-8 million and no one else in base ball even comes close to that offer. In addition, if some one other than the Sox was foolish enough to offer Ortiz 2 years at $10-12 million, he passes it up and still signs with the Sox.
    Posted by rkarp


    Vlad signed 1 year $8M after having an inferior season to what Papi is on pace to put up.  Additionally, Papi has a stronger 2 year track record going into FA (assuming he keeps it up this season).  I'd be surprised if the Sox didn't offer arb after the season, and a 2 year deal isn't out of the question.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : Vlad signed 1 year $8M after having an inferior season to what Papi is on pace to put up.  Additionally, Papi has a stronger 2 year track record going into FA (assuming he keeps it up this season).  I'd be surprised if the Sox didn't offer arb after the season, and a 2 year deal isn't out of the question.
    Posted by JB-3


    Agreed! The numbers he is achieving are putting the FO in a good spot. If he takes arb we get another year at a decent price, which with a .965 OPS currently is exactly what we probably want ( a reasonably priced one year deal ) and he probably will decline it and go to FA where we might still sign him, If we can't work out a good deal we get 2 picks if he stays strong through the rest of this year. We are in a great spot. 
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    Rcarp - I don't think any of us are projecting a gold glove from Lavarnway but if he can catch about as good as Victor, with improved game calling, better CS numbers, at a cost of $450,000 per year and puts up 30-35 HR and an .870 OPS .... I think he's a keeper. That is probably his upside IMO. And his base is not that bad. This guy might even be a 40 HR bat with over a 900 OPS. He's currently on pace for over 40 HR / 600 AB this year. He drove in 102 runs in 126 games last year and scored 91. He puts runs on the board. He has 60 RBI in 81 games this year. He has consistently put up great numbers in the minors.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : Hey southpaw, Unfortunately Ortiz and Jason are in the same boat.  Lavarnway is a kid who could move either of them off the club if he continues this pace.  I may take some heat on this but I don't feel Tek or Papi would be the same on another club.  Jason, for the first time since being a rookie would need to learn an entirely new staff.  Papi would need good hitters around him in order to play as well as he is now.  I like Papi and Jason but there comes a time when you may need to bring in a talented kid, not only to save money but to keep him. Our management will be loyal to Jason, Papi and Wake as long as they can because of what they have done for our organization.  They all deserve this but it can't last forever.
    Posted by craze4sox


    Disagree. The FO isn't sentimental when it comes to $$$.
    They have kept Wake/Tek/Papi because of what they feel they still can contribute - as opposed to the hole that must be filled, and I'm not isolating this to on-field activity.

    The bottom line is: This is a business that has to be run like one.
    If you think they resigned those three out of loyalty, ask yourself where the team would be without their 2011 contributions.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : Hey southpaw, Unfortunately Ortiz and Jason are in the same boat.  Lavarnway is a kid who could move either of them off the club if he continues this pace.  I may take some heat on this but I don't feel Tek or Papi would be the same on another club.  Jason, for the first time since being a rookie would need to learn an entirely new staff.  Papi would need good hitters around him in order to play as well as he is now.  I like Papi and Jason but there comes a time when you may need to bring in a talented kid, not only to save money but to keep him. Our management will be loyal to Jason, Papi and Wake as long as they can because of what they have done for our organization.  They all deserve this but it can't last forever.
    Posted by craze4sox


    I think they both, so far, have earned their spot craze..Tek has done a great job this year as a BU and proved his worth even more by mentoring a kid (salty) that 2 teams before couldnt develop properly. Papi could be DH for 2 more years IMO. They both could reurn next year,AFAIC, if they keep this up all year..
    Katz; I hear ya on Lavarnway..Another year to sharpen his skills would benefit him greatly..Good to know hes down there Just in case though..
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    Lowell was kept because of what he did in 2010. Pretty solid.
    Posted by billbyboy


    The FO had a commitment to Lowell, and had he stayed healthy, he'd had fulfilled it. Injuries can go either way, which is why you were foolish to wrote off Jake prematurely. Now he's showing you up, fueling UR Kemp kick...to get rid of Jake and fill UR Kemp-in-Boston fantasy.

    Theo signed Millwood on the same thought process. And he may help out before it's over. Reclamation projects sometimes pan out, as in Luis Tiant. I never knew the Henry/Theo FO to be ruled by sentiment.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    Come on rkarp,
    Lavarnway is 6/4 225 just like guys like Salty, Wieters and other shorter but less agile players like Tek.  You make the kid out to be chubby and clumsy which isn't true.  He just began catching in his senior year "I believe" and he is far from being a guy who can't learn as he plays more.
     
    Wieters is in the same mold as Mauer regarding athleticism. Lavarnway is not. Look, I am hoping for Lavarnway to improve to the point of becoming a catcher. I have not seen him catch many games. But when I have seen him, he is very slow to react. Maybe as slow as any catcher I have ever seen. This causes him to catch with his arm, rather than his body. Watch any catcher and how they "shift" to the pitch. Then watch Lavarnway. He reaches for the pitch. Makes it impossible to play any balls in the dirt, or help frame the pitch for the pitcher.
    I am not concerned with Lavarnways foot speed, although it is Molina-esque. I am impressed with Lavarnways arm. His success rate in spite of his poor reaction time and athleticism speaks volume to his arm strength. 
    I would have said Lavarnway s/b playing 1B and not catching. Perhaps Lars is a deadline deal, and Lavarnway does get time at 1B the rest of the year so the Sox can see if he can get on the field at the major league level. Other than that, I just don't see it at C and even worse in RF. 
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    Come on rkarp, Lavarnway is 6/4 225 just like guys like Salty, Wieters and other shorter but less agile players like Tek.  You make the kid out to be chubby and clumsy which isn't true.  He just began catching in his senior year "I believe" and he is far from being a guy who can't learn as he plays more.   Wieters is in the same mold as Mauer regarding athleticism. Lavarnway is not. Look, I am hoping for Lavarnway to improve to the point of becoming a catcher. I have not seen him catch many games. But when I have seen him, he is very slow to react. Maybe as slow as any catcher I have ever seen. This causes him to catch with his arm, rather than his body. Watch any catcher and how they "shift" to the pitch. Then watch Lavarnway. He reaches for the pitch. Makes it impossible to play any balls in the dirt, or help frame the pitch for the pitcher. I am not concerned with Lavarnways foot speed, although it is Molina-esque. I am impressed with Lavarnways arm. His success rate in spite of his poor reaction time and athleticism speaks volume to his arm strength.  I would have said Lavarnway s/b playing 1B and not catching. Perhaps Lars is a deadline deal, and Lavarnway does get time at 1B the rest of the year so the Sox can see if he can get on the field at the major league level. Other than that, I just don't see it at C and even worse in RF. 
    Posted by rkarp


    Fair enough rkarp, I think DH may be the final destination for Ryan in Boston if he doesn't make it as a catcher.  With a guy like Adrian playing IB the next 6 years it would be a shame to put the kid at 1B.  He will at the very least deserve a real shot at winning a spot on the roster.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    Vlad signed 1 year $8M after having an inferior season to what Papi is on pace to put up.  Additionally, Papi has a stronger 2 year track record going into FA (assuming he keeps it up this season).  I'd be surprised if the Sox didn't offer arb after the season, and a 2 year deal isn't out of the question.

    I think that you are predicting Ortiz's offers/salary based on his numbers from this year (and last year) while I am predicting his offers/salary on what other teams interest will be. Do Ortiz's statistics this year merit him getting a salary of 2 years and $25 mil? Yes they do. But who will give it to him in his 36/37 years? Yankees? Mets? Dodgers? Cubs? Angels? Orioles? You mention the Vlad signing at $8 mil. You may as well also throw in Pena at $10 mil and DLee $7 mil. Don't these signings vs production at age 35/36 give teams concern? 
    My feeling is not that Ortiz is not producing this year, but why would the Sox bid against them selves for Ortiz's services next year?  
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    Fair enough rkarp, I think DH may be the final sestination for Ryan in Boston if he doesn't make it as a catcher.  With a guy like Adrian playing first the next 6 years it would be a shame to put the kid at 1B.  He will at the very least deserve a real shot at winning a spot on the roster.

    You should not feel that way. The Sox don't. The Sox will try to maximize assets, not hope that Lavarnway is their next DH. Look at it this way. Rizzo (and of course Kelly) returned AGon. What does Lavarnway and maybe Bitton or Doubront return?
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    I think that you are predicting Ortiz's offers/salary based on his numbers from this year (and last year) while I am predicting his offers/salary on what other teams interest will be. Do Ortiz's statistics this year merit him getting a salary of 2 years and $25 mil? Yes they do. But who will give it to him in his 36/37 years? Yankees? Mets? Dodgers? Cubs? Angels? Orioles? You mention the Vlad signing at $8 mil. You may as well also throw in Pena at $10 mil and DLee $7 mil. Don't these signings vs production at age 35/36 give teams concern?  My feeling is not that Ortiz is not producing this year, but why would the Sox bid against them selves for Ortiz's services next year?  
    Posted by rkarp

    I'm not only predicting Ortiz's next deal based off of his recent stats, but also looking around the league at what other DH's have signed for based off of their platform season(s).

    Vlad is a year older than Ortiz, which makes him the better comparable when discussing Ortiz's next deal (they will have signed at the same age and neither have any defensive assets).  I don't like the Pena comparison since Pena came off of a worse platform year and is 3 years younger than Ortiz will be at the time of his signing and can Pena can actually play some defense.  Lee is an interesting comparison in that they will be signing their deals while only a year apart in age.  Had we been discussing this before Ortiz's 2011 season, they also would have had a fairly comparable 2 year history.

    At the end of the day, contracts in baseball are all about comparable, and Ortiz has a better platform on which to get his next deal than the players you named, which puts him at or above $10M on a 1 year deal.  Personally, I see the Sox offering him arb (as expensive as it may turn out).  Teams are quickly learning that DHing is a lot harder than it looks.  Players who have shifted into the DH role have generally struggled this year, with the league DH OPS currently sitting at .748.  Ortiz is currently sitting at .965 would represent a huge upgrade over any teams DH.  There are only 2 AL teams (other than Boston) getting production over an .800 OPS from their DH's:  Cleveland (.805) and Kansas City (.800).

     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : I'm not only predicting Ortiz's next deal based off of his recent stats, but also looking around the league at what other DH's have signed for based off of their platform season(s). Vlad is a year older than Ortiz, which makes him the better comparable when discussing Ortiz's next deal (they will have signed at the same age and neither have any defensive assets).  I don't like the Pena comparison since Pena came off of a worse platform year and is 3 years younger than Ortiz will be at the time of his signing and can Pena can actually play some defense.  Lee is an interesting comparison in that they will be signing their deals while only a year apart in age.  Had we been discussing this before Ortiz's 2011 season, they also would have had a fairly comparable 2 year history. At the end of the day, contracts in baseball are all about comparable, and Ortiz has a better platform on which to get his next deal than the players you named, which puts him at or above $10M on a 1 year deal.  Personally, I see the Sox offering him arb (as expensive as it may turn out).  Teams are quickly learning that DHing is a lot harder than it looks.  Players who have shifted into the DH role have generally struggled this year, with the league DH OPS currently sitting at .748.  Ortiz is currently sitting at .965 would represent a huge upgrade over any teams DH.  There are only 2 AL teams (other than Boston) getting production over an .800 OPS from their DH's:  Cleveland (.805) and Kansas City (.800).
    Posted by JB-3


    JB,
    I don't agree contracts are all about comparable. While your thought process is solid, what if the Sox tell Ortiz to bring them his best offer from another team, and they will match or top it? What if Ortiz has best offer in hand of $5 mil. Do the Sox still offer him $10 mil?
    Rather than analyze platform year, what team or teams are in a position of need/ability to spend money on a DH? I am making my assumptions that the Yankees (Montero/Arod/Jeter), Angels (Wells), White Sox (Dunn), Tigers (Victor), Rangers (Young/Napoli/Moreland) among others are out of the running. Is Ortiz (and just as importantly his wife) happy in Toronto or Seattle?(not that either of those teams are offering a 36 year old DH any where near $10 mil)  
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : JB, I don't agree contracts are all about comparable. While your thought process is solid, what if the Sox tell Ortiz to bring them his best offer from another team, and they will match or top it? What if Ortiz has best offer in hand of $5 mil. Do the Sox still offer him $10 mil? Rather than analyze platform year, what team or teams are in a position of need/ability to spend money on a DH? I am making my assumptions that the Yankees (Montero/Arod/Jeter), Angels (Wells), White Sox (Dunn), Tigers (Victor), Rangers (Young/Napoli/Moreland) among others are out of the running. Is Ortiz (and just as importantly his wife) happy in Toronto or Seattle?(not that either of those teams are offering a 36 year old DH any where near $10 mil)  
    Posted by rkarp

    As I pointed out, Ortiz is a huge upgrade for any AL team at the DH position, so I'll focus on teams with openings and money to spend.

    Red Sox:  I don't think I need to explain this one, although ideally they would limit it to a 1 year deal to keep the option of moving Youk to DH in 2013 if Middlebrooks is ready.  Lavarnway is also destined for the DH spot if he can't stick at catcher.

    Baltimore:  Vlad is gone after this season, freeing up $5M from this years payroll ($3M of Vlad's $8M salary is differed until 2016-2017).  Mike Gonzalez is gone after this year as well, freeing up another $6M.  The O's have $4.1M in raises due before factoring in arb raises.  Could Luke Scott be non-tendered working from a $6.4M salary?  The O's have shown a willingness to offer big money to players in the recent past.  Ortiz would fill a huge position of need.

    Blue Jays:  There's the obvious Farrell connection and Encarnacion has a club option for next year at $3.5M.  Currently he sits as the logical choice to move to DH in 2012 if Lawrie is ready.  The Jays certainly have money to spend and a 3/4 of Ortiz/Bautista Would elevate the Jays into contention in the AL East.

    Angels:  They could use some thump from the DH spot, but Abreu's option is close to vesting (550 PA's in 2011 or 1100 PA's from 2010-2011).

    Oakland and Seattle both have huge needs and the money to get a deal done, but I can't see Ortiz moving to those huge ballparks.  An offer from either could certainly be used as leverage in negotiations though.  The M's are paying Milton Bradley and Carlos Silva a combined $17.5M this year to stay away from the team.

    Twins:  Ortiz could go back to where it all started.  The Twins are dead last in production from the DH spot and have money coming off the books in Nathan, Capps, Thome and Cuddyer.  The Twins also don't have anyone blocking the DH spot unless you consider 1B Justin Morneau and C Joe Mauer as candidates for that (personally, I don't see that as a legitimate threat especially on a short term deal for Ortiz).  The Twins may very well be the team that takes the 2 year plunge on Ortiz.

    So there's 4 legitimate suitors for Ortiz (Red Sox, O's, Blue Jays, Twins) with the Angels, A's and Mariners on the outside looking in.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    But when I have seen him, he is very slow to react. Maybe as slow as any catcher I have ever seen. This causes him to catch with his arm, rather than his body. Watch any catcher and how they "shift" to the pitch. Then watch Lavarnway. He reaches for the pitch. Makes it impossible to play any balls in the dirt, or help frame the pitch for the pitcher. I am not concerned with Lavarnways foot speed, although it is Molina-esque. I am impressed with Lavarnways arm. His success rate in spite of his poor reaction time and athleticism speaks volume to his arm strength.  I would have said Lavarnway s/b playing 1B and not catching. Perhaps Lars is a deadline deal, and Lavarnway does get time at 1B the rest of the year so the Sox can see if he can get on the field at the major league level. Other than that, I just don't see it at C and even worse in RF. 
    Posted by rkarp


    I don't see how a guy can hit .467 in college, rake at every level he's been at and be labeled as having poor reaction time.  You make him sound like Paul Sorrento or something as far as his athleticism is concerned.  It's inaccurate.  He was an OF before he converted to C as a sophomore.  I met him at a Yale tailgate when he was a Jr. -- he's just not as Shrekish as this thread has, at times, made him sound.  And he has continually leapfrogged Federowicz, "the superior defender," and continues to catch at each level, and throw runners out.  He's smart and level-headed.  If Saltalamacchia can make as much defensive progress in the Tuck-Varitek Academy, why can't Lavarnway do the same?
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    Baltimore:  Vlad is gone after this season, freeing up $5M from this years payroll ($3M of Vlad's $8M salary is differed until 2016-2017).  Mike Gonzalez is gone after this year as well, freeing up another $6M.  The O's have $4.1M in raises due before factoring in arb raises.  Could Luke Scott be non-tendered working from a $6.4M salary?  The O's have shown a willingness to offer big money to players in the recent past.  Ortiz would fill a huge position of need.
    Is it fair to say that Vlad, DLee and Reynolds did not work out and that the O's will continue to try and build around young pitching, Wieters and Markakis? Also, wasn't Machado the starting SS in the futures game? Do you really see the O's offering Ortiz money? Or do you see them all in on Prince?

    Blue Jays:  There's the obvious Farrell connection and Encarnacion has a club option for next year at $3.5M.  Currently he sits as the logical choice to move to DH in 2012 if Lawrie is ready.  The Jays certainly have money to spend and a 3/4 of Ortiz/Bautista Would elevate the Jays into contention in the AL East.
    I would think that Lind/Snider are the obvious choices

    Angels:  They could use some thump from the DH spot, but Abreu's option is close to vesting (550 PA's in 2011 or 1100 PA's from 2010-2011).
    They also just promoted Trout, meaning Bourjos, Trout, Wells and Hunter will also contend with Abreu for DH ab's
      

    Oakland and Seattle both have huge needs and the money to get a deal done, but I can't see Ortiz moving to those huge ballparks.  An offer from either could certainly be used as leverage in negotiations though.  The M's are paying Milton Bradley and Carlos Silva a combined $17.5M this year to stay away from the team.
    Mariners have argueably top 3 young talent in baseball. Seems they are moving forward well on their way with young talent. Do you really see them Signing 36/37 year old Ortiz?

    Twins:  Ortiz could go back to where it all started.  The Twins are dead last in production from the DH spot and have money coming off the books in Nathan, Capps, Thome and Cuddyer.  The Twins also don't have anyone blocking the DH spot unless you consider 1B Justin Morneau and C Joe Mauer as candidates for that (personally, I don't see that as a legitimate threat especially on a short term deal for Ortiz).  The Twins may very well be the team that takes the 2 year plunge on Ortiz.
    Twins wouldn't resign Cuddyer but would resign a 36/37 year old Ortiz??
    So there's 4 legitimate suitors for Ortiz (Red Sox, O's, Blue Jays, Twins) with the Angels, A's and Mariners on the outside looking in.
    I question how legitimate each of the above teams are. Also, do you really think Ortiz moves to Seatle or Toronto if the Sox offer one year and they offer 2 years?
    My point is, regardless of Ortiz worth, the Sox will not bid against themselves.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    " As for Larvanway, I think he gets at least another year to polish his catching skills. If he can become a quality catcher his value goes through the roof because of positional value. Therefore I doubt they rush to turn the player into a DH.  " Nice post Katz. Re: the quote above, do you see Tek back again next season?  I think Lavarnway makes that more of a question, but given Tek's likely cost (low) and how he is doing at the plate these days, I think he's likely back unless there is a major problem in the second half.  That seems to leave Ryan in AAA to start the year which isn't necessarily bad. Oh, and FWIW, I don't see Ortiz wearing anything but a Sox uni next year.  I predict two years + some sort of team/player 3rd year hi-low option.
    Posted by 111SoxFan111
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    I'll put in my predictions right now:  
    - Sox sign two year deal with Ortiz with a total value around $10m/year ... some sort of 3rd year options, IMO.  
    - Assuming Tek stays relatively healthy this year, he gets another 1 year deal. 
    - Assuming Salty doesn't forget how to throw back to the pitcher again, you will see Lavarnway/Salty tandem at some point in 2012.  
    - Lavarnway will be up upon roster expansion this year (of course) ... start a couple of games if playoff spot is secure and definitely pinch hit some.


     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    Baltimore:  I see the O's all-in on Prince and losing as they frequently do with long term big $ FA deals.  Ortiz is their plan B.  Weiters and Markakis are staying where they are in the field.

    Toronto:  Lind has been playing 1B and hasn't been a liability in the field.  He has a UZR of 0.8 (nothing to write home about, but certainly passable).  Farrell spent enough time in the Red Sox organization that I believe UZR is something he considers when building a roster and filling out a lineup card.

    As for Snider, he's having a down year thus far at the MLB level and has a career .748 OPS.  That doesn't play well at the DH position assuming he could successfully transition to DH.  He seems better suited for a 4th OF role.

    Seattle:  Even young teams need veteran leadership and Ortiz could anchor the clubhouse.  The advantage of being a young team is that the players they are bringing up have positions in the field.  Ortiz could give them a big bat in the middle of the lineup and an excellent club house presence.  I can't say that Ortiz would accept 2 years out west instead of one year on the east coast, but you can't say that he wouldn't either.

    Twins:  There's nothing stopping them from bringing back Cuddyer to play RF and backup just about everywhere else and signing Ortiz.  Cuddyer has only played 2 games at DH this season.  The Twins have $28.15M coming off the books (after Nathan's buyout) from Cuddyer, Nathan and Capps.  That's enough for both Ortiz and Cuddyer, unless you want to change your valuation of Ortiz to > $10M.

    Angels:  I didn't include them as a serious option above, but I feel I should point out the Trout will likely be sent back down once Bourjous comes off the DL.  He should have a very good MLB career, but this isn't his time yet.

    Didn't the Sox bid against themselves last year by picking up his $12.5M option (no buyout)?  Fair market value would have been $6-8M on a 1 year deal (see Vlad)
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : I don't see how a guy can hit .467 in college, rake at every level he's been at and be labeled as having poor reaction time.  You make him sound like Paul Sorrento or something as far as his athleticism is concerned.  It's inaccurate.  He was an OF before he converted to C as a sophomore.  I met him at a Yale tailgate when he was a Jr. -- he's just not as Shrekish as this thread has, at times, made him sound.  And he has continually leapfrogged Federowicz, "the superior defender," and continues to catch at each level, and throw runners out.  He's smart and level-headed.  If Saltalamacchia can make as much defensive progress in the Tuck-Varitek Academy, why can't Lavarnway do the same?
    Posted by CTJake14


    Good post CTJake14 but we kept hearing Shrek stuff over and over not just here but clearly on soxprospects as well. Someone influential tagged him as never making it defensively early on and it has for the most part stuck. In the face of continuous improvement since. I think Lavarnway has finally beaten the naysayers into submission.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    With Fielder and Pujols as FA this winter the winner of those sweepstakes will be adding some game changers.

    Could the Yanks be thinking of adding Fielder at DH? They could be tossing some serious cash his way, as could the Redsox. And then the Sox take the 2 picks as well.

    There are several scenarios which could end up with Ortiz leaving.
     
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