Lavarnway Continues to Rake

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    Didn't the Sox bid against themselves last year by picking up his $12.5M option (no buyout)?  Fair market value would have been $6-8M on a 1 year deal (see Vlad)

    Yes, against Theo's wishes, Sox ownership over ruled the GM and Ortiz was resigned costing the Sox VMartinez.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    JB,
    I still don't agree with your logic that a rebuilding team infuses veteran leadership to the tune of $10 mil at the ages of 36 and 37. Not when the Thomes, Camerons and the like are seemingly available for leadership at a fraction of the cost.
    I am of the belief that teams have really done a 360 on the age issue, and are really fearful of giving dollars to anyone over 33 years old.  
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : Good post CTJake14 but we kept hearing Shrek stuff over and over not just here but clearly on soxprospects as well. Someone influential tagged him as never making it defensively early on and it has for the most part stuck. In the face of continuous improvement since. I think Lavarnway has finally beaten the naysayers into submission.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom

    Boomer,
    You have it backwards. The Sox are saying Lavarnway is making progress. It is every other organization's scouts that are saying he doesn't have the needed athleticism to pull it off.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    I'll put in my predictions right now:   - Sox sign two year deal with Ortiz with a total value around $10m/year ... some sort of 3rd year options, IMO.   - Assuming Tek stays relatively healthy this year, he gets another 1 year deal.  - Assuming Salty doesn't forget how to throw back to the pitcher again, you will see Lavarnway/Salty tandem at some point in 2012.   - Lavarnway will be up upon roster expansion this year (of course) ... start a couple of games if playoff spot is secure and definitely pinch hit some.
    Posted by 111SoxFan111

    OK, predictions on the table:
    1) Ortiz-resigns with the Sox for 1 year deal worth between $6-$9 mil. Receives no other offers even close
    2) Tek is back on another 1 year deal
    3) Lavarnway is part of a deal for either an OF or P
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    JB, I still don't agree with your logic that a rebuilding team infuses veteran leadership to the tune of $10 mil at the ages of 36 and 37. Not when the Thomes, Camerons and the like are seemingly available for leadership at a fraction of the cost. I am of the belief that teams have really done a 360 on the age issue, and are really fearful of giving dollars to anyone over 33 years old.  
    Posted by rkarp


    It isn't solely about leadership though, it's about the potential to put the team into contention.  Ortiz is the best at his position by OPS and many of the injury concerns surrounding older players are mitigated by the fact that he doesn't play the field.  Safeco certainly isn't going to help any player offensively, but Ortiz could be a huge force away from home, while also providing leadership.  Teams use their money to compliment their young talent with available players who give them the best chance to win, Ortiz fits that mold.

    I think our disagreement may be caused by how we view the Mariners.  You say rebuilding, I say up and coming.  They already have the talent in house it improve all over the field, and their pitching looks very good and is built for the playoffs (2-3 studs).  It's not like they are crying poor either, they can easily afford to pay Papi.  Thanks, in part, to all of the youth coming up to the MLB level.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : OK, predictions on the table: 1) Ortiz-resigns with the Sox for 1 year deal worth between $6-$9 mil. Receives no other offers even close 2) Tek is back on another 1 year deal 3) Lavarnway is part of a deal for either an OF or P
    Posted by rkarp

    1) Sox offer arb which is turned down.  Ortiz signs with the Twins, 2 years $20M.
    2) Tek is back on a 1 year deal, similar to his 2010 contract.
    3) Lavarnway sees time at DH and C at the MLB level next year (limited time catching), so he can learn from Tek and Tuck.  This wouldn't happen until at least mid season and depends on when/if he debuts with the Sox this season.  The Sox will look to get an extra year of team control.

    Hoping I'm wrong about #1.
     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : It isn't solely about leadership though, it's about the potential to put the team into contention.  Ortiz is the best at his position by OPS and many of the injury concerns surrounding older players are mitigated by the fact that he doesn't play the field.  Safeco certainly isn't going to help any player offensively, but Ortiz could be a huge force away from home, while also providing leadership.  Teams use their money to compliment their young talent with available players who give them the best chance to win, Ortiz fits that mold. I think our disagreement may be caused by how we view the Mariners.  You say rebuilding, I say up and coming.  They already have the talent in house it improve all over the field, and their pitching looks very good and is built for the playoffs (2-3 studs).  It's not like they are crying poor either, they can easily afford to pay Papi.  Thanks, in part, to all of the youth coming up to the MLB level.
    Posted by JB-3

    No JB,
    I agree 100% with everything yous ay, including the Mariners on the cusp in a very winnable division. I agree the Mariners are in a very nice position financially to make a splash with a veteran in terms of on the field performance and locker room leadership.
    I think where we don't see eye to eye, is would the Mariners, or any other team for that matter, feel that player to put them over the top can be in his 36 and 37 year ages?
    Now, if you are talkiung about a Damon or Manny Rays deal, where any of the teams you mention gets Ortiz for $1-$2 million, then you are on to something. But I don't think you are sayiong that based on your $10 mil prediction with the Twins. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : 1) Sox offer arb which is turned down.  Ortiz signs with the Twins, 2 years $20M. 2) Tek is back on a 1 year deal, similar to his 2010 contract. 3) Lavarnway sees time at DH and C at the MLB level next year (limited time catching), so he can learn from Tek and Tuck.  This wouldn't happen until at least mid season and depends on when/if he debuts with the Sox this season.  The Sox will look to get an extra year of team control. Hoping I'm wrong about #1.
    Posted by JB-3


    I see Papi and the Sox agreeing on reasonable contract.  The fans and his teammates love Papi.  I can't see Papi playing anywhere else.  With Tek, you may or may not see him back next season because you can't keep a hitter like Lavarnway in the minors too long.  I also don't feel Salty needs mentoring after this season but that's for the experts to decide.

    Lavarnway has great tools if he can learn to catch effectively at the big league level.  If this happens, Salty may eventually become a trade chip.  If the Sox determine Ryan is better off at DH or being used himself as a trade chip so be it.  We always have Fed, who is a very gifted defensive catcher as Salty's back up.

    It's great to have options!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : No JB, I agree 100% with everything yous ay, including the Mariners on the cusp in a very winnable division. I agree the Mariners are in a very nice position financially to make a splash with a veteran in terms of on the field performance and locker room leadership. I think where we don't see eye to eye, is would the Mariners, or any other team for that matter, feel that player to put them over the top can be in his 36 and 37 year ages? Now, if you are talkiung about a Damon or Manny Rays deal, where any of the teams you mention gets Ortiz for $1-$2 million, then you are on to something. But I don't think you are sayiong that based on your $10 mil prediction with the Twins. 
    Posted by rkarp


    You are correct, I'm certainly not saying he's getting a low base salary.  I'm just saying that 1 year deals are inherently low risk, with 2 year deals only being slightly more risky for a player who's a DH.  We aren't talking about someone entering their late 30's when signing the deal, he'll be at the end of his mid 30's.  I admit that teams are conscious of the age issue, but that's why we are talking about someone who's the best at his position getting a 1 or 2 year deal and not a 5 or 6 year deal.  Teams have shown a willingness to pay players huge salaries into their twilight years without knowing how they'll perform leading up to those final years (Werth immediately comes to mind).  With Ortiz, a team knows that he's still on top of his game heading into his age 36 season (assuming he continues playing at this level for the remainder of this season).
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : I see Papi and the Sox agreeing on reasonable contract.  The fans and his teammates love Papi.  I can't see Papi playing anywhere else.  With Tek, you may or may not see him back next season because you can't keep a hitter like Lavarnway in the minors too long.  I also don't feel Salty needs mentoring after this season but thats for the experts to decide. Lavarnway has great tools if he can learn to catch effectively at the big league level.  If this happens, Salty may eventually become a trade chip.  If the Sox determine Ryan is better off at DH or being used himself as a trade chip so be it.  We always have Fed, who is a very gifted defensive catcher as Saltys back up. It's great to have options!
    Posted by craze4sox


    I think you need to attempt to bring back Tek in order to ease Lavarnway into the back up catcher role.  I also think Tek could teach Lavarnway a lot about catching and handling a big league pitching staff.  Naturally, you don't want to stunt Lavarnway's development by having him sit on the bench, so that's where the DH spot comes into play and that's why I don't see the Sox offering Ortiz more than a 1 year deal with a high base salary.  If Papi would go anywhere else for 1 extra year, I have to believe it would be Minny as he's familiar with the area and knows what it's like to play for the Twins.  Anyway, we'll see how it plays out.  I certainly hope he'll take fewer years to stay in Boston.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : I think you need to attempt to bring back Tek in order to ease Lavarnway into the back up catcher role.  I also think Tek could teach Lavarnway a lot about catching and handling a big league pitching staff.  Naturally, you don't want to stunt Lavarnway's development by having him sit on the bench, so that's where the DH spot comes into play and that's why I don't see the Sox offering Ortiz more than a 1 year deal with a high base salary.  If Papi would go anywhere else for 1 extra year, I have to believe it would be Minny as he's familiar with the area and knows what it's like to play for the Twins.  Anyway, we'll see how it plays out.  I certainly hope he'll take fewer years to stay in Boston.
    Posted by JB-3


    I agree Tek would be a good mentor for Ryan but is it worth carrying three catchers?  Maybe
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : I agree Tek would be a good mentor for Ryan but is it worth carrying three catchers?  Maybe
    Posted by craze4sox


    It's certainly worth carrying 3 catchers if one of them can be the DH.  It would also allow the Sox to pinch run for the catcher late in games while still having another option to move behind the plate if there were an injury.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : It's certainly worth carrying 3 catchers if one of them can be the DH.  It would also allow the Sox to pinch run for the catcher late in games while still having another option to move behind the plate if there were an injury.
    Posted by JB-3


    I'm not sure how much time Lavarnway might get at DH if Papi's around, or catching but I still like the idea.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    JB,
    I get the Ortiz back and forth banter. I just don't agree with it. I think he is back with the Sox, and there is minute interest from other teams. (As an aside, I am also very comfortable in saying that his wife will not leave Boston, even if the Sox offer is for 1 year and there is an offer of 2 years on the table from another team)
    What I don't get is the back and forth on Lavarnway being a major league catcher. What are people seeing that I and every other teams scouting departments are missing? Or are Sox fans seeing the offensive out put at AAA and thinking the bat will play even at the expense of the catching? (Piazza)
    Can you imagine Lavarnway catching Beckett, Lackey or Lester with their demeanor? Francona is too much a players manager to ever put any of them in that position...but it IS laughable to think about it.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from thirtysomething. Show thirtysomething's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    Lavarnway has just 100 AB at Pawtucket, and despite impressive offensive numbers is still striking out a fair amount. I don't think he is truly ready YET.

    Thus I don't see any real need to maneuver a roster spot for him next April. He'll get a chance some time during the year, and we'll be able to project a role for him in 2013 with greater certainty.

    He can definitely use the work defensively...
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    JB, I get the Ortiz back and forth banter. I just don't agree with it. I think he is back with the Sox, and there is minute interest from other teams. (As an aside, I am also very comfortable in saying that his wife will not leave Boston, even if the Sox offer is for 1 year and there is an offer of 2 years on the table from another team) What I don't get is the back and forth on Lavarnway being a major league catcher. What are people seeing that I and every other teams scouting departments are missing? Or are Sox fans seeing the offensive out put at AAA and thinking the bat will play even at the expense of the catching? (Piazza) Can you imagine Lavarnway catching Beckett, Lackey or Lester with their demeanor? Francona is too much a players manager to ever put any of them in that position...but it IS laughable to think about it.
    Posted by rkarp


    Fair enough, we can agree to disagree on Ortiz.  As always, it's been a pleasure.

    Regarding Lavarnway, I read an article a month or 2 ago (which I haven't been able to find today) that talked about the great strides Lavarnway has made behind the plate and that Lavarnway was being complimented on his progress not just from the Red Sox organization, but from umpires and opposing mangers as well.  I mean, it might not be worth much, but it's a positive sign.  Unfortunately I haven't been able to watch him play since he moved up to AAA, but if he can be even remotely passable behind the plate the Sox will be in for a treat.  The strides he's made with his catch and release are a very good sign, the next milestone is improving his agility behind the plate.  I'm choosing to believe in the kid until he gives me a reason to doubt him and I'll worry once he stops improving defensively.  My only concern is that his debut will be pushed back somewhat while he continues to make defensive strides, but that results in the Sox getting more prime/near prime years at the MLB level, so for now I'm ok with it.  He should be up within the next 12 months though, start of 2013 at the latest.

    Based on DH production at the MLB level this year, his bat would play as DH/3rd catcher.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    Lavarnway has just 100 AB at Pawtucket, and despite impressive offensive numbers is still striking out a fair amount. I don't think he is truly ready YET. Thus I don't see any real need to maneuver a roster spot for him next April. He'll get a chance some time during the year, and we'll be able to project a role for him in 2013 with greater certainty. He can definitely use the work defensively...
    Posted by thirtysomething

    Thirty, of course. This is the Sox and the $180 million dollar payroll. No rookie will start for this team in April unless very late spring training injury and deperation. I don't think anyone feels Lavarnway is ready at the start to next year, including offensively. Offensively, he is still a "long arm" swinger, very suspect to the inside half of the plate. At this time, he is crushing mistakes in AAA, but would obviously be very over matched at the major league level. I am thinking his offense is still 300-500 PA's away from maybe readiness.
    I also see him blocked at the major league level, and the Sox won't let a prospect with 1500 PA's sit on the bench
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    I am thinking his offense is still 300-500 PA's away from maybe readiness. I also see him blocked at the major league level, and the Sox won't let a prospect with 1500 PA's sit on the bench
    Posted by rkarp


    That sounds about right... The lower end of the range would take us to the middle of 2012, the upper end to next August or September. There is a good chance he will be offensively ready by then.

    Blocked? Ortiz is a free agent at the end of this year, while Youkilis is only guaranteed through 2012. He is only blocked to the extent that the team chooses to block him. It will be interesting to see how they align the various moving pieces this winter. Depending on how they construct the team going forward, Lavarnway could be a key part of the team in 2013 or trade bait at the 2012 deadline.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : That sounds about right... The lower end of the range would take us to the middle of 2012, the upper end to next August or September. There is a good chance he will be offensively ready by then. Blocked? Ortiz is a free agent at the end of this year, while Youkilis is only guaranteed through 2012. He is only blocked to the extent that the team chooses to block him. It will be interesting to see how they align the various moving pieces this winter. Depending on how they construct the team going forward, Lavarnway could be a key part of the team in 2013 or trade bait at the 2012 deadline.
    Posted by thirtysomething

    based on my comments on this post I fully expect Ortiz back with the Sox at a reasonable $$ figure
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    I fully expect Ortiz back with the Sox at a reasonable $$ figure
    Posted by rkarp


    Sorry, I hadn't been following that closely...

    I think it depends on the length of the deal. A one-year deal for Ortiz doesn't block Lavarnway significantly at all. A two-year deal could delay his chance at a major league job. A three-year deal might make him trade bait?

    As long as Ortiz is getting all the PT at DH, the only role for Lavarnway would be catching 40-60 games and pinch-hitting for our three lefty outfielders. So yeah, I'd count that as "blocked".
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake : Boomer, You have it backwards. The Sox are saying Lavarnway is making progress. It is every other organization's scouts that are saying he doesn't have the needed athleticism to pull it off.
    Posted by rkarp


    Of course the Sox staff is going to say good things, which is what I said I think. I was stating that Lavarnway hasn't gotten appropriate credit IMO from soxprospects until very recently and other bloggers and pundits have dogged him some also. I've never seen one negative comment from a sox staffer. They have admitted defensive defficiencies but they have always noted his work ethic and improvement.

    One thing some of us might be missing is that he is on pace this year to hit 40 HR over a 600 AB season this year and he has put up several 30 HR / 600 AB seasons earlier. The guy is consistently hitting for average, OPS, OBP and delivering in the clutch, every year. He's relatively young and very consistent. This isn't a guy who has a good year, then tanks, then has a halfway decent year. He is consitently putting up great numbers. It may even make sense to not waste his bat and play him at DH anyway just to get that bat in the lineup every night.

    It's not unrealistic to think that Lavarnway might give us a 30 HR bat in the next year or 2 of development. He's optimized for Fenway. He has adapted quickly to every level so far. If anything his bat seems to be improving. If we let Papi go for 2 picks I have no problem with that. Next year even.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    "If we let Papi go for 2 picks I have no problem with that. Next year even."

    That's a pretty strong statement, Boomerangs!
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    "At this time, he is crushing mistakes in AAA, but would obviously be very over matched at the major league level"
    "I also see him blocked at the major league level"
    Rkarp - MLB sluggers also crush mistakes ... they just see fewer at the MLB level and have to slog harder to get those opportunities.  Lavarnway looks like a pretty damn good hitter and has the track record for it at every level he has played.  I'm not saying he is definitely ready and we certainly need more AAA ABs to make a judgement, but I fail to see how you can state definitely that he would be overmatched right now.  If SSS stats at AAA are an accurate reading of ability, I think we have evidence that he would NOT be overmatched by MLB pitching.  Obviously, we need more evidence before reaching that conclusion.

    Also, curious about your position that he is blocked. If you see Ortiz being signed to a one-year deal, there is potentially space at DH in 2013 (depending upon the Youk situation).  Also, if Lavarnway can catch at a "competent" MLB level, he seems like a no-brainer as a backup at that position since Tek can't play forever.  Obviously, much depends upon his defensive ability and there seems to be significant disagreement on that front.  Last thought, I think your predicted 1-year $6-9m is awfully low for Ortiz.  If he becomes available he is simply the best DH money can buy and a two year commitment is short enough for even the most cost constrained teams to manage.  IF he becomes available, I think he will have multiple suitors for 2 years at the top of your salary range.
     
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    Re: Lavarnway Continues to Rake

    "Can you imagine Lavarnway catching Beckett, Lackey or Lester with their demeanor? Francona is too much a players manager to ever put any of them in that position...but it IS laughable to think about it."
    I missed this one ... clearly you are in the camp of "no way can he ever catch in MLB."  I haven't watched him play and I am not qualified to judge even if I watched him daily but it seems doubtful to me that he'd be catching in Pawtucket if the FO thought there was less than 50% chance of him working up to replacement level MLB defense in the position.  If that were the case, I think with his bat he'd be moved over to 1B in a heart beat.  They'd stock him there as a potential DH or trade chip and give up the catching pipe dream, IMO.
     
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