Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    Shoppach would bring very little, hardly worth the effort when he's a good platoon with Salty.  I think trading Salty would be absolutely nuts.  He's still young for a catcher, still developing, clearly has decent power (16 HR in 386 PAs last year, obviously on fire now) and.... ....he's only 2 years and 3 months older than the "young" Lavarnway.  This Cult of Lavarnway is just silly IMO.  Yes, he may turn out to be good....maybe better than Salty, who knows?  But maybe not.  And Salty is delivering the goods in Teddy Ballgame's "Major F***ing Leagues", not AAA.
    Posted by Chilliwings


    This is valid; why Kim would question your allegiance is baffling to me (Not really)
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    Shoppach would bring very little, hardly worth the effort when he's a good platoon with Salty.  I think trading Salty would be absolutely nuts.  He's still young for a catcher, still developing, clearly has decent power (16 HR in 386 PAs last year, obviously on fire now) and.... ....he's only 2 years and 3 months older than the "young" Lavarnway.  This Cult of Lavarnway is just silly IMO.  Yes, he may turn out to be good....maybe better than Salty, who knows?  But maybe not.  And Salty is delivering the goods in Teddy Ballgame's "Major F***ing Leagues", not AAA.
    Posted by Chilliwings
    Right.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    Shoppach would bring very little, hardly worth the effort when he's a good platoon with Salty.  I think trading Salty would be absolutely nuts.  He's still young for a catcher, still developing, clearly has decent power (16 HR in 386 PAs last year, obviously on fire now) and.... ....he's only 2 years and 3 months older than the "young" Lavarnway.  This Cult of Lavarnway is just silly IMO.  Yes, he may turn out to be good....maybe better than Salty, who knows?  But maybe not.  And Salty is delivering the goods in Teddy Ballgame's "Major F***ing Leagues", not AAA.
    Posted by Chilliwings

    Hey Chill, tough one last night CFC road their luck.

    I say trade Salty b/c he and Lava will both be MLB starters pretty  soon IMO.  Salty is young, cheap, but he is walking less and less. Trade him soon b/c his value is probably at a high point (before he slumps again, see last post).   I have been making OPs about how Salty has the best XBH / PA #s of all catchers 2011 to now, I am a big fan.  That being said I'd bet on Lava being the better long term bet.  

    Salty  BB / PA 
    08       .135
    09       .072
    10        injured
    11       .062
    12       .038

    Now both Lava and Salty had about 1 BB / 2 games in the minors, but if forced to bet I'd guess Lava will retain more OBP potential than Salty has.   If Salty regained his minor league eye, he would be an elite hitter for a catcher.





     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    Lavarnway's out again today, so something must be brewing.  I'm not sure I like Wilson Ramos any more than Salty or Lavarnway.  Maybe long-term more than Salty, but I'm certainly not ready to jump ship on 2012.

    This is still a very strange season - I'm not sure where our most pressing needs are yet.  Short-term, it's the OF and bullpen, but those could be surplus positions by the end of the season.

    Here's a crazy idea - what if Ross goes on the DL, and we continue to see Gonzalez in RF and Ortiz at 1B, with Lavarnway and Salty sharing the C/DH duties?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    Lavarnway's out again today, so something must be brewing.  I'm not sure I like Wilson Ramos any more than Salty or Lavarnway.  Maybe long-term more than Salty, but I'm certainly not ready to jump ship on 2012. This is still a very strange season - I'm not sure where our most pressing needs are yet.  Short-term, it's the OF and bullpen, but those could be surplus positions by the end of the season. Here's a crazy idea - what if Ross goes on the DL, and we continue to see Gonzalez in RF and Ortiz at 1B, with Lavarnway and Salty sharing the C/DH duties?
    Posted by slomag


    Is Ross hurt?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    Lavarnway's out again today, so something must be brewing.  I'm not sure I like Wilson Ramos any more than Salty or Lavarnway.  Maybe long-term more than Salty, but I'm certainly not ready to jump ship on 2012. This is still a very strange season - I'm not sure where our most pressing needs are yet.  Short-term, it's the OF and bullpen, but those could be surplus positions by the end of the season. Here's a crazy idea - what if Ross goes on the DL, and we continue to see Gonzalez in RF and Ortiz at 1B, with Lavarnway and Salty sharing the C/DH duties?
    Posted by slomag


    No one's suggesting the Sox get Ramos.  He was mentioned because he's out for the year with a torn ACL, creating a potential trading partner for the Sox.  I wouldn't mess with Ortiz and AGon just to get Lava's bat up to Boston right now.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chilliwings. Show Chilliwings's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day : Hey Chill, tough one last night CFC road their luck. I say trade Salty b/c he and Lava will both  be MLB starters pretty  soon IMO.   Salty is young, cheap, but he is walking less and less. Trade him soon b/c his value is probably at a high point (before he slumps again, see last post).   I have been making OPs about how Salty has the best XBH / PA #s of all catchers 2011 to now, I am a big fan.  That being said I'd bet on Lava being the better long term bet.   Salty  BB / PA  08       .135 09       .072 10        injured 11       .062 12       .038 Now both Lava and Salty had about 1 BB / 2 games in the minors, but if forced to bet I'd guess Lava will retain more OBP potential than Salty has.   If Salty regained his minor league eye, he would be an elite hitter for a catcher.
    Posted by tom-uk


    Tom, gutting result for me as a Spurs fan, but while I loath Terry (ha ha, suspended you d1ckhead!) and Cole, I love Di Matteo and Drogba.  What a swansong...his last kick ever (?) for Chelsea wins the Champions League!  I also dislike Abramovich and look forward to his squirming about whether or not to resign Di Matteo.  I bet a bunch of senior players go to him and tell him he must retain him.  Either way, Robbie's sorted for a bigtime managing role.

    (normal service resumed)

    I think your position re the Salty/Lav debate is reasonable....but it is so difficult to find a decent catcher (not great, decent!) I have to take the conservative position:  I can see the argument about Lav's ceiling being higher - though Salty is still young for a catcher and improving - but his floor could be driving a truck in 2 years (ok, driving it in an educated, Yale way) whereas Salty's floor is already proven and, IMO, good enough already with upside.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day : Is Ross hurt?
    Posted by nhsteven

    Yes, he fouled a ball off of his foot on Friday (I think).  He had x-rays sent back to Boston to confirm he didn't have a break (which he doesn't).  So yes he's hurt, but not injured which is why he isn't on the DL.  He should be back in a couple days.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day :  but his floor could be driving a truck in 2 years (ok, driving it in an educated, Yale way)
    Posted by Chilliwings


    LOL!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day : Is Ross hurt?
    Posted by nhsteven


    He fouled a ball off his leg, and has been out of the lineup the past couple of days, but x-rays were negative and it doesn't look like he will need to be on the DL - he may be back tomorrow.

    Also, the Sox just called up Che-Hsuan Lin, so I don't think we're going to see that happen.

    My best guess would be that Shoppach is going to be traded, and Lavarnway the backup / RH bat off the bench.  

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chilliwings. Show Chilliwings's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    Lavarnway's out again today, so something must be brewing.  I'm not sure I like Wilson Ramos any more than Salty or Lavarnway.  Maybe long-term more than Salty, but I'm certainly not ready to jump ship on 2012. This is still a very strange season - I'm not sure where our most pressing needs are yet.  Short-term, it's the OF and bullpen, but those could be surplus positions by the end of the season. Here's a crazy idea - what if Ross goes on the DL, and we continue to see Gonzalez in RF and Ortiz at 1B, with Lavarnway and Salty sharing the C/DH duties?
    Posted by slomag


    I think Ortiz' improved conditioning and, presumably, mobility makes this idea less crazy than it was a year ago but Sweeney/AGon at 9/3 is pretty strong whereas AGon/Ortiz at 9/3 is pretty frightening.  We'd have to hire Joe Maddon as a consultant to develop a strategy to force every opposing batter to hit the ball to left fie....d'oh!
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    For a change, you cherry pick your stats; using RC+ for a platooning player with questionable defense is a good illustration.

    Switch hitting platoon players are an interesting case.   If given regular ABs would Salty hit LHP better, or as JB3 pointed out maybe platooning hurts his numbers on his better side due to rust.

    Lowrie so far in a very small sample in 2012 is hitting RHP better than LHP, like he did in the minors.  Early days but not platooning may help his "weaker" LHB. 

    Pedroia and Ortiz have had splits change back and forth a bit over the last few years, it's not always set in stone.  I'm sure some other catchers with big splits would have better wRC+ if platooned some.   

    I intentionally didn't use WAR because catching defensive metrics are in their infancy.

    oWAR BBRef 2012

    Salty             .8
    Posey         1.3
    Santana      1.3
    Mauer          .9
    Wieters      1.1
    McCann      .8
    Napoli         .7

    My intention was to show Salty is hitting pretty well so far (higher trade value) compared to some much bigger names.   The oWAR numbers probably would favor Salty more if he saw more LHP.   I don't remember anyone posting oWAR numbers before, but if that is the new standard I will enjoy seeing it adopted.


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    In Response to Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day:
    For a change, you cherry pick your stats; using RC+ for a platooning player with questionable defense is a good illustration. Switch hitting platoon players are an interesting case.   If given regular ABs would Salty hit LHP better, or as JB3 pointed out maybe platooning hurts his numbers on his better side due to rust. Lowrie so far in a very small sample in 2012 is hitting RHP better than LHP, like he did in the minors.   Early days but not platooning may help his "weaker" LHB.  Pedroia and Ortiz have had splits change back and forth a bit over the last few years, it's not always set in stone.  I'm sure some other catchers with big splits would have better wRC+ if platooned some.    I intentionally didn't use WAR because catching defensive metrics are in their infancy. oWAR BBRef 2012 Salty             .8 Posey         1.3 Santana      1.3 Mauer          .9 Wieters      1.1 McCann      .8 Napoli         .7 My intention was to show Salty is hitting pretty well so far (higher trade value) compared to some much bigger names.   The oWAR numbers probably would favor Salty more if he saw more LHP.   I don't remember anyone posting oWAR numbers before, but if that is the new standard I will enjoy seeing it adopted.
    Posted by tom-uk


    An interesting angle, and this supports my previous impression that I would have been surprised if you would rather have Salty long term over Wieters; and I still think Lavarnway is the heir apparent, at least for now.
     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    I would have been surprised if you would rather have Salty long term over Wieters

    NHS, no sane person would say that for a few reasons, but I make no apologies for showing how Salty has outperformed bigger names in hitting with the "advantage of a platoon".  Both wRC+ and OPS don't take the platoon into account, and WAR for catchers is suspect.  Salty was dumped on when he started slow the last two years and I preached patience.  His trade value must be better than after his slump last Sep.

    At the moment, Salty 888 and Wieters 799 but of course Wieters will probably be the much better player long term, especially considering his superior catching skills.  I hardly think it is cherry picking to use wRC+, but yes of course I wasn't looking at all facets of their games.

    2011 plus 2012  XBH/PA
    Salty        60/494      12% best at C both years
    Wieters   66/707       9%

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    While Lavarnway was not in Pawtucket's lineup, he pinch-hit for the starting catcher on his second time up, went 1-3 and scored only one of 3 runs Pawtucket scored as they lost their 4th straight game.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Lavarnway's out of the lineup for the second straight day

    Thanks PH - I guess it was much ado about nothing.  
     
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