Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    Would the Red Sox be better off exercising the $13 million club option for 2014 or declining Jon Lester's option and instead making a qualifying offer of about $14 million to the lefthander?

    The first choice would guarantee that Lester remains under team control through 2014. The second choice costs the Red Sox an extra $1 million for the possibility of a compensatory draft pick should Lester decline the qualifying offer and sign elsewhere.

    The Sox could exercise the option and then made a qualifying offer following the 2014 season, but would assume the risk that Lester would not be worthy of a qualifying offer in a year.

    Thoughts?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Would the Red Sox be better off exercising the $13 million club option for 2014 or declining Jon Lester's option and instead making a qualifying offer of about $14 million to the lefthander?

    The first choice would guarantee that Lester remains under team control through 2014. The second choice costs the Red Sox an extra $1 million for the possibility of a compensatory draft pick should Lester decline the qualifying offer and sign elsewhere.

    The Sox could exercise the option and then made a qualifying offer following the 2014 season, but would assume the risk that Lester would not be worthy of a qualifying offer in a year.

    Thoughts?



    I would make him a qualifying offer of $14M and "risk" losing him next year. Our SP for next year are as follows (all under contract): Breakholz, Doubront, Peavy, Lackey, and Dempster. Why would we want a #5 SP at $13M for a year? Thats pretty expensive. Now I realize that what will most likely happen is that the Sox will pick up his option or try to negotiate a longer term deal with him, but based on his overall performance to this point this year and all of last year, secondarily, he is not someone I value more than a #4-5 SP, and he should be paid accordingly.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    Pick up the option.  They're 14-10 in Lester's starts.  It's unlikely they could find somebody on the FA market who could match that but cost less than $13M.  And we don't know which of the pitching prospects (if any) will by MLB ready by the start of next year.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

    I'm not disagreeing because I think Jon Lester is an ace; I'd argue he isn't anymore but I'm curious to why you think he is a #5 starting pitcher. 

    If Jon Lester is your #5....your doing something right. 


    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    Unless he totally blows up the rest of the way, you pick up the option -- especially if he continues like he in last seven starts -- 3.77 ERA; pitched into the seventh inning in five of the seven and allowed three runs or less in five of the seven. If this is the pitcher the rest of the season, it's not a No. 5 starter.

    But who knows what Lester will do? He has shown too often this year he can be dominant so what he needs now is consistency and avoid those disaster games. He's made a lot of strides since July of last year. 

    July of last year was when he was at his worst -- 9.36 ERA in five starts.

    However, from Aug 1, 2012 through today, Lester has a 4.16 ERA in 36 starts and 229.1 innings. And that includes a three-start span in June when he had a  9.98 ERA. So in those other 33 starts his ERA is 3.77. What this shows is that for the past year, most of the time 33 of 36 starts, Lester was pitching like a No. 3 pitcher, which shows he still has the stuff.

    Going forward, he has to find away to avoid those blowsups. If's he's going to slump for three to five games -- like a lot of pitchers will -- let his ERA be in the 5.00s for those starts (or even low 6s) -- instead of nearly 10.00.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    I'm not a billionaire owner or a MLB GM to be making these decisions.

    What I can tell you as a baseball fan for about 45 years is that pitching in baseball in 2013 really stinks compared to what it was like in 1968-72. I had the pleasure of growing up watching some of the greatest MLB pitchers ever. So many , I can't possibly name them all and still have time to eat my lunch. Gibson, Palmer,Marichal, Jenkins, McNally, Drysdale, Blue, Hunter, Seaver, Koosman, Kaat... to name a few. The Red Sox didn't see the playoffs from 1968-1975 because they didn't have any of these pitchers.

    Think about Red Sox teams that made the playoffs before the 2-Wild Card system makes it almost impossible for a team wih a $150 million payroll to miss ( although the banged-up Yankees will manage to this year). Those playoff bound Red Sox teams had starting pitching ( and not all of these guys had great years every year) Lonborg and Santiago in 67, Tiant, Wise and Lee in 75, Hurst and Clemens in 86, Martinez, Schilling and Lowe in 2004, Schilling,Beckett in 2007.

    Now, think about the 2013 Red Sox and consider 2014. Jon Lester in a career 95-55 W/L. He has thrown a no-hitter, he has had only one losing season. He is only 31.He is a left-hand starter.Where do you find someone with that track record and profile for under $14 million in today's MLB?

    A rotation of Buchholz  who many of you believe will never be able to pitch a full season without injury) ,Lackey ( who many of you wanted released before this season) , Dempster, Peavy, Doubront will not cut it. None of those pitchers is an ace or a potential ace. Two of them have had arm injuries.

    I say to the front office: Do whatever it takes to keep him , you won't find anything better out there for less money. By today's standards ( which are lower than they were in 1972) he is a keeper.

    "Here we are trapped in the amber of the moment. There is no why.- Kurt Vonnegut

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

     

     




    Hes better than out #5 Dempster, whose making 13.25M per. your making no sense.

    You dont have any patience and give up when it gets rough. Thats the truth. You often say a game is over by the 2nd or 3rd inning, so its no surprise that you would give up on a solid starter who has a career 95-55 record in the ALE and a career sub 4 ERA, because hes transitioning from a thrower to a real pitcher. Its not a smooth transition, but he has shown improvements as roy has posted. The going got a little rough for Lester and you have been all over him and are ready to give up. 

    Never mind 2012, he had no support from his 2 useless pitching coaches and an even more useless manager who would often hang him out to dry than help him. I was at that Toronto game last year when Valentine should have pulled him and didnt. He never had anyone's back but his own. Farrell and Nieves have worked with him and hes been better this year than last year, but hes not quite there yet. Those who have patients and understand fully what this kind of transition consists of, would NOT give up on this kid. Not with a small 13M option. Hes better than dempster. You tend to give up very easily PG. Example: You wanted to remove Lackey in the 1st and 2nd innings because he had a rough start. I said no, he'll be fine, just give him a chance to right the ship. He retired 14 of his next 16 batters pitching 5 more solid innings and saving the pen. I know you know baseball, but this game requires more patients than you have shown. Im picking up that option as soon as the last pitch is thrown and looking forward to a 2014 with Lester in the rotation.

    Next year is Lesters make or break year with the Sox. I try and move Dempster to an NL team if I can this off season. If Im spending 13M on either one of those guys its the younger and very talented Jon Lester. I know what Im getting from Dempster. I believe Lester can and will be better than he is now, which is already better than what Dempster is.

    Now, all bets are off if your presented with a trade offer that you just can refuse. But unless its overwhelming, Im keeping Lester. Good starting pitching isnt easy to come by and isnt cheap. Also finding someone to handle the bright lights and pressure in Boston isnt east either. Lester has already proved he can do it.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    Interesting offers, but with the free agency for next season's starting pitchers are so terrible. If I have to make a move, I would get rid of Ryan Dempster first.  He got to go!  Another problem is Bucholtz.  How much more he have to miss games every season??  That is another question mark we got to look at.  I just think Boston have no choice.  They got to pick up the option anyway.  Who know the Yankees or Orioles would give him a nice fat contract, and he is more likely going to either club.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

     

    I'm not a billionaire owner or a MLB GM to be making these decisions.

    What I can tell you as a baseball fan for about 45 years is that pitching in baseball in 2013 really stinks compared to what it was like in 1968-72. I had the pleasure of growing up watching some of the greatest MLB pitchers ever. So many , I can't possibly name them all and still have time to eat my lunch. Gibson, Palmer,Marichal, Jenkins, McNally, Drysdale, Blue, Hunter, Seaver, Koosman, Kaat... to name a few. The Red Sox didn't see the playoffs from 1968-1975 because they didn't have any of these pitchers.

    Think about Red Sox teams that made the playoffs before the 2-Wild Card system makes it almost impossible for a team wih a $150 million payroll to miss ( although the banged-up Yankees will manage to this year). Those playoff bound Red Sox teams had starting pitching ( and not all of these guys had great years every year) Lonborg and Santiago in 67, Tiant, Wise and Lee in 75, Hurst and Clemens in 86, Martinez, Schilling and Lowe in 2004, Schilling,Beckett in 2007.

    Now, think about the 2013 Red Sox and consider 2014. Jon Lester in a career 95-55 W/L. He has thrown a no-hitter, he has had only one losing season. He is only 31.He is a left-hand starter.Where do you find someone with that track record and profile for under $14 million in today's MLB?

    A rotation of Buchholz  who many of you believe will never be able to pitch a full season without injury) ,Lackey ( who many of you wanted released before this season) , Dempster, Peavy, Doubront will not cut it. None of those pitchers is an ace or a potential ace. Two of them have had arm injuries.

    I say to the front office: Do whatever it takes to keep him , you won't find anything better out there for less money. By today's standards ( which are lower than they were in 1972) he is a keeper.

    "Here we are trapped in the amber of the moment. There is no why.- Kurt Vonnegut

     




     

     

     

    Great post, Zilla.

     

    With regard to not paying a #5 starter (if that is what Lester is) $13 million, we basically already are - see Dempster, Ryan. His contract should be proof that you're not going to find any better than Jon Lester for $13 million; if Lester can continue his recent upward trend, or even just maintain where he is, it's tough to see the option not being picked up.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?


    Keep Lester.  Not a tough decision.  royf19 provides us with a terrific laydown on why.  On top of which, I thought Lester's last outing, the one in which he needed 41 pitches in the 1st inning, was outstanding.  He went 7 full innings and gave up 1 earned run.  The two unearned runs were on an egregious error by Gomes.  Dempster can be effective, but scares me.  Doubront still has control issues.  Buchholz has yet to get 32 starts in a season.  Lackey has definitely improved, but his temperament bothers me.  Peavy needs to show us more, but should be fine. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    Jon has not pitched consistently well for some time now. Still, he does not seem to be a guy that you give up on. Even now , I trust him before guys like Peavy and Dempster. Even Doubront. I would vote for keeping him. 

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Give me a list of every starter that is available for 13 million that is better than Lester. Also you have made it clear that you only use ERA to determine slotting doesn'r that mean he is better than both Peavy and Dempster?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to royf19's comment:

    Unless he totally blows up the rest of the way, you pick up the option -- especially if he continues like he in last seven starts -- 3.77 ERA; pitched into the seventh inning in five of the seven and allowed three runs or less in five of the seven. If this is the pitcher the rest of the season, it's not a No. 5 starter.

    But who knows what Lester will do? He has shown too often this year he can be dominant so what he needs now is consistency and avoid those disaster games. He's made a lot of strides since July of last year. 

    July of last year was when he was at his worst -- 9.36 ERA in five starts.

    However, from Aug 1, 2012 through today, Lester has a 4.16 ERA in 36 starts and 229.1 innings. And that includes a three-start span in June when he had a  9.98 ERA. So in those other 33 starts his ERA is 3.77. What this shows is that for the past year, most of the time 33 of 36 starts, Lester was pitching like a No. 3 pitcher, which shows he still has the stuff.

    Going forward, he has to find away to avoid those blowsups. If's he's going to slump for three to five games -- like a lot of pitchers will -- let his ERA be in the 5.00s for those starts (or even low 6s) -- instead of nearly 10.00.

     



    PG read this.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

    I'm not a billionaire owner or a MLB GM to be making these decisions.

    What I can tell you as a baseball fan for about 45 years is that pitching in baseball in 2013 really stinks compared to what it was like in 1968-72. I had the pleasure of growing up watching some of the greatest MLB pitchers ever. So many , I can't possibly name them all and still have time to eat my lunch. Gibson, Palmer,Marichal, Jenkins, McNally, Drysdale, Blue, Hunter, Seaver, Koosman, Kaat... to name a few. The Red Sox didn't see the playoffs from 1968-1975 because they didn't have any of these pitchers.

    Think about Red Sox teams that made the playoffs before the 2-Wild Card system makes it almost impossible for a team wih a $150 million payroll to miss ( although the banged-up Yankees will manage to this year). Those playoff bound Red Sox teams had starting pitching ( and not all of these guys had great years every year) Lonborg and Santiago in 67, Tiant, Wise and Lee in 75, Hurst and Clemens in 86, Martinez, Schilling and Lowe in 2004, Schilling,Beckett in 2007.

    Now, think about the 2013 Red Sox and consider 2014. Jon Lester in a career 95-55 W/L. He has thrown a no-hitter, he has had only one losing season. He is only 31.He is a left-hand starter.Where do you find someone with that track record and profile for under $14 million in today's MLB?

    A rotation of Buchholz  who many of you believe will never be able to pitch a full season without injury) ,Lackey ( who many of you wanted released before this season) , Dempster, Peavy, Doubront will not cut it. None of those pitchers is an ace or a potential ace. Two of them have had arm injuries.

    I say to the front office: Do whatever it takes to keep him , you won't find anything better out there for less money. By today's standards ( which are lower than they were in 1972) he is a keeper.

    "Here we are trapped in the amber of the moment. There is no why.- Kurt Vonnegut




    great post Zill...Most here act as if good starting pitching is easy to find and is cheap. Lester is a proven pitcher and is still young and transitioning from a thrower to a pitcher. You have to have some patience. Its only year 1 of that transformation. he had no help or support last year. You dont give up on a talent like Lester after what hes given this team, and I might add, at a VERY low cost considering what hes done.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

     

     




    Hes better than out #5 Dempster, whose making 13.25M per. your making no sense.

    You dont have any patience and give up when it gets rough. Thats the truth. You often say a game is over by the 2nd or 3rd inning, so its no surprise that you would give up on a solid starter who has a career 95-55 record in the ALE and a career sub 4 ERA, because hes transitioning from a thrower to a real pitcher. Its not a smooth transition, but he has shown improvements as roy has posted. The going got a little rough for Lester and you have been all over him and are ready to give up. 

    Never mind 2012, he had no support from his 2 useless pitching coaches and an even more useless manager who would often hang him out to dry than help him. I was at that Toronto game last year when Valentine should have pulled him and didnt. He never had anyone's back but his own. Farrell and Nieves have worked with him and hes been better this year than last year, but hes not quite there yet. Those who have patients and understand fully what this kind of transition consists of, would NOT give up on this kid. Not with a small 13M option. Hes better than dempster. You tend to give up very easily PG. Example: You wanted to remove Lackey in the 1st and 2nd innings because he had a rough start. I said no, he'll be fine, just give him a chance to right the ship. He retired 14 of his next 16 batters pitching 5 more solid innings and saving the pen. I know you know baseball, but this game requires more patients than you have shown. Im picking up that option as soon as the last pitch is thrown and looking forward to a 2014 with Lester in the rotation.

    Next year is Lesters make or break year with the Sox. I try and move Dempster to an NL team if I can this off season. If Im spending 13M on either one of those guys its the younger and very talented Jon Lester. I know what Im getting from Dempster. I believe Lester can and will be better than he is now, which is already better than what Dempster is.

    Now, all bets are off if your presented with a trade offer that you just can refuse. But unless its overwhelming, Im keeping Lester. Good starting pitching isnt easy to come by and isnt cheap. Also finding someone to handle the bright lights and pressure in Boston isnt east either. Lester has already proved he can do it.

     



    Right now we are STUCK with Dempster; he is under contract for next year. If he were not under contract I would vote to extend Lester at $13M-but he IS under contract. Thats the problem. I don't want two #5 SP at $13M each. If we can trade Dempster (very unlikely IMO) then sure, lets see what Lester can do next year. If not, I give him a qualifying offer or trade him.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    What is a true #1 or a true #2 or a #3 or  #4 $5 pitcher.

    Do you have specific number in my mind; stats that a guy must reach to be considered a certain slot of a pitcher.  You can make an argument that the top 30 pitchers are #1 and 31-60 are #2 etc etc etc. 

    In terms of ERA, IP, WHIP, K Lester ranks 70th 25th 68th 32th  now why those don't scream top of the rotation starter I think you can make an argument that Lester is a fringe #2 solid #3 starter.  

    A guy like Doubront ranks 47th 73 81 and 46th respectively on those stats.  Which would Make Doubront a fringe #2 or the best #3 in baseball.  

    Of course these numbers are subjective and there are other stats that can be thrown in there but I think it would make for good conversation.  Personally If I were to go more in depth I'd like to look at some stats that measure control (although whip does cover that a bit)  Also Doubront has been much better the second half of the season so far so I'd make a strong argument that he is at least one grade better than his numbers show (a solid #2).

    MY POINT IS!!!! most of us, and I'm sure I'm guilty of this at times as well, tend to vastly underrate and overrate pitchers on this team because of our own personal convictions.  Some people think Lester is a #5 that is absolultey absurd.  Others try to say that Doubront has pitched like a top of the rotation starter, which is also absurd.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    There is a $.25M buyout clause, so letting Lester go would cost that. Keeping him is a net cost of $12.75M. Not taking the option and then offerying a QO of about $14M would cost about $1.25M more.

    I think Lester might take the QO, but I guess that's what it comes down to. Will he take it or look for a longer term deal?

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

     



    Give me a list of every starter that is available for 13 million that is better than Lester. Also you have made it clear that you only use ERA to determine slotting doesn'r that mean he is better than both Peavy and Dempster?

     



    We have five pitchers already under contract for 2014. And you want to add a sixth at $13M. If you want to go pitcher shopping, feel free. I am not going to do your stat work for you. My preference is to use younger pitchers who are under team control for a long time rather than go out and buy an expensive #6 SP. We have several prospects coming up who should be able to help us next year. Workman is already on the team and has generally looked good. Morales may be able to start as well. Overpaying a sixth SP is not a smart way to run a baseball team.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    To an extent I think you can make a strong argument that we have about 4-5 pitchers who could all be #2 or #3 pitchers next year.  Which ultimately could give us an above average rotation but yet it would lack that true #1.  I think that makes a guy like Lester expendable for the right trade.  But if the "right trade" isn't there Lester is much more valuable ON this team than he would be if cut lose and given a QO. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    What is a true #1 or a true #2 or a #3 or  #4 $5 pitcher.

    Do you have specific number in my mind; stats that a guy must reach to be considered a certain slot of a pitcher.  You can make an argument that the top 30 pitchers are #1 and 31-60 are #2 etc etc etc. 

    In terms of ERA, IP, WHIP, K Lester ranks 70th 25th 68th 32th  now why those don't scream top of the rotation starter I think you can make an argument that Lester is a fringe #2 solid #3 starter.  

    A guy like Doubront ranks 47th 73 81 and 46th respectively on those stats.  Which would Make Doubront a fringe #2 or the best #3 in baseball.  

    Of course these numbers are subjective and there are other stats that can be thrown in there but I think it would make for good conversation.  Personally If I were to go more in depth I'd like to look at some stats that measure control (although whip does cover that a bit)  Also Doubront has been much better the second half of the season so far so I'd make a strong argument that he is at least one grade better than his numbers show (a solid #2).

    MY POINT IS!!!! most of us, and I'm sure I'm guilty of this at times as well, tend to vastly underrate and overrate pitchers on this team because of our own personal convictions.  Some people think Lester is a #5 that is absolultey absurd.  Others try to say that Doubront has pitched like a top of the rotation starter, which is also absurd.

     



    Whatever you assign Lester (I see him as a #4 SP, but he is, in fact, our sixth SP on the payroll next year) is subjective. Do you want him as our sixth SP on the payroll, assuming we cannot get rid of Dempster, at $13M? I don't.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    Right now we are STUCK with Dempster; he is under contract for next year. If he were not under contract I would vote to extend Lester at $13M-but he IS under contract. Thats the problem. I don't want two #5 SP at $13M each. If we can trade Dempster (very unlikely IMO) then sure, lets see what Lester can do next year. If not, I give him a qualifying offer or trade him.

    I'm glad you clarified this, PG, because it sounds like ultimately your problem is more with the fact that Dempster is under contract next season than with picking up Lester's option if all things were equal. Dempster is not very good and is overpaid, which I've said since the day we signed him...I'd love to be able to move him this winter (maybe to the NL, where he did have some very good years), but who knows. My guess is that the Sox will deal one starter and pick up Lester's option rather than sticking with the rotation they'll have under contract...but we'll see.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    What is a true #1 or a true #2 or a #3 or  #4 $5 pitcher.

    Do you have specific number in my mind; stats that a guy must reach to be considered a certain slot of a pitcher.  You can make an argument that the top 30 pitchers are #1 and 31-60 are #2 etc etc etc. 

    In terms of ERA, IP, WHIP, K Lester ranks 70th 25th 68th 32th  now why those don't scream top of the rotation starter I think you can make an argument that Lester is a fringe #2 solid #3 starter.  

    A guy like Doubront ranks 47th 73 81 and 46th respectively on those stats.  Which would Make Doubront a fringe #2 or the best #3 in baseball.  

    Of course these numbers are subjective and there are other stats that can be thrown in there but I think it would make for good conversation.  Personally If I were to go more in depth I'd like to look at some stats that measure control (although whip does cover that a bit)  Also Doubront has been much better the second half of the season so far so I'd make a strong argument that he is at least one grade better than his numbers show (a solid #2).

    MY POINT IS!!!! most of us, and I'm sure I'm guilty of this at times as well, tend to vastly underrate and overrate pitchers on this team because of our own personal convictions.  Some people think Lester is a #5 that is absolultey absurd.  Others try to say that Doubront has pitched like a top of the rotation starter, which is also absurd.

     

     



    Whatever you assign Lester (I see him as a #4 SP, but he is, in fact, our sixth SP on the payroll next year) is subjective. Do you want him as our sixth SP on the payroll, assuming we cannot get rid of Dempster, at $13M? I don't.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I would get rid of Dempster before Lester but the point I'm trying to make is that yes what you view a guy is subjective but there also has to be substance to it.  If a guy leads the league in ERA, K's and WHIP and IP then it would be by an overwhelming consensus that he is the #1 pitcher in the league.  So if a guy has numbers better than 32 or 33 guys in the league then I think you can make a strong argument that if that guy is the 33 best pitcher then he is a very strong #2 pitcher etc etc etc. 

    So if there are 30 teams in the league and all things considered each have 5 SP then there are 150 starters in the league, give or take.  So in my opinion there should be 30 #1's 30 #2's etc etc etc and so forth.  The numbers don't suggest that Jon Lester is a #5 or a #6.  They suggest he is a #2 or a #3.

    You can make the argument that he is a #4 or #5 on this team....BUT if his overall contract is substantially lower than what the market value is for a starting pitcher of his caliber then it makes ZERO sense to cut him lose, if anything he should be traded. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    What is a true #1 or a true #2 or a #3 or  #4 $5 pitcher.

    Do you have specific number in my mind; stats that a guy must reach to be considered a certain slot of a pitcher.  You can make an argument that the top 30 pitchers are #1 and 31-60 are #2 etc etc etc. 

    In terms of ERA, IP, WHIP, K Lester ranks 70th 25th 68th 32th  now why those don't scream top of the rotation starter I think you can make an argument that Lester is a fringe #2 solid #3 starter.  

    A guy like Doubront ranks 47th 73 81 and 46th respectively on those stats.  Which would Make Doubront a fringe #2 or the best #3 in baseball.  

    Of course these numbers are subjective and there are other stats that can be thrown in there but I think it would make for good conversation.  Personally If I were to go more in depth I'd like to look at some stats that measure control (although whip does cover that a bit)  Also Doubront has been much better the second half of the season so far so I'd make a strong argument that he is at least one grade better than his numbers show (a solid #2).

    MY POINT IS!!!! most of us, and I'm sure I'm guilty of this at times as well, tend to vastly underrate and overrate pitchers on this team because of our own personal convictions.  Some people think Lester is a #5 that is absolultey absurd.  Others try to say that Doubront has pitched like a top of the rotation starter, which is also absurd.

     



    I agree, and I happen to like the method of assigning #1 status to 1-30, #2 to 31-60, etc... However, the stats, metrics, and timeframe sample size(s) used in this determination are debatable. Should adjustments be made to NL pitchers due to no DH? How about home park adjustments? Strength of offenses faced during the sample size?

    On Doubront, if you changed the sample size to the last 12-14 starts, his numbers may approach the top 30 MLB starters, hence the expression, "he is pitching like a number 1 starter".

    Another way to look at the issue is how a pitcher compares to other contending team's #1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 slot starter. Others look at the salary as compared to the slot of the starter. 

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share