Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    What is a true #1 or a true #2 or a #3 or  #4 $5 pitcher.

    Do you have specific number in my mind; stats that a guy must reach to be considered a certain slot of a pitcher.  You can make an argument that the top 30 pitchers are #1 and 31-60 are #2 etc etc etc. 

    In terms of ERA, IP, WHIP, K Lester ranks 70th 25th 68th 32th  now why those don't scream top of the rotation starter I think you can make an argument that Lester is a fringe #2 solid #3 starter.  

    A guy like Doubront ranks 47th 73 81 and 46th respectively on those stats.  Which would Make Doubront a fringe #2 or the best #3 in baseball.  

    Of course these numbers are subjective and there are other stats that can be thrown in there but I think it would make for good conversation.  Personally If I were to go more in depth I'd like to look at some stats that measure control (although whip does cover that a bit)  Also Doubront has been much better the second half of the season so far so I'd make a strong argument that he is at least one grade better than his numbers show (a solid #2).

    MY POINT IS!!!! most of us, and I'm sure I'm guilty of this at times as well, tend to vastly underrate and overrate pitchers on this team because of our own personal convictions.  Some people think Lester is a #5 that is absolultey absurd.  Others try to say that Doubront has pitched like a top of the rotation starter, which is also absurd.

     

     



    I agree, and I happen to like the method of assigning #1 status to 1-30, #2 to 31-60, etc... However, the stats, metrics, and timeframe sample size(s) used in this determination are debatable. Should adjustments be made to NL pitchers due to no DH? How about home park adjustments? Strength of offenses faced during the sample size?

     

    On Doubront, if you changed the sample size to the last 12-14 starts, his numbers may approach the top 30 MLB starters, hence the expression, "he is pitching like a number 1 starter".

    Another way to look at the issue is how a pitcher compares to other contending team's #1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 slot starter. Others look at the salary as compared to the slot of the starter. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I definitely agree the stats are debatable, and realize I was just "scratching the surface" but I thought it was a fair point to make to at the very least perhaps get the ball rolling on the conversation.  I would also sub class pitchers too.  I'd say the top 30 are #1 starters but only the top 10-12 would be division 1 aces.  I think that all those other points you made need to be considered as well.  

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    Lester should have his option exercised.  No brainer.

     

    If the Sox deal a SP, Lackey might have as much if not more appeal than Lester based on his performance this year and his remaining contract,  which is $15.75 mill over the next TWO years...

     

    Two years of Lackey for about $2mill more might be very tempting, and the Sox might be eise to sell high beforeLackey enters his age 35 season. ..

     

     

    “Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

    -Shel Silverstein

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to notin's comment:

    Lester should have his option exercised.  No brainer.

     

    If the Sox deal a SP, Lackey might have as much if not more appeal than Lester based on his performance this year and his remaining contract,  which is $15.75 mill over the next TWO years...

     

    Two years of Lackey for about $2mill more might be very tempting, and the Sox might be eise to sell high beforeLackey enters his age 35 season. ..

     

     

    “Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

    -Shel Silverstein




    That would also be OK. Dempster would then be a SP who provides depth at #6 and we would have to get or promote another SP. The way things are RIGHT NOW we have five SP under contract and that makes Lester an expensive sixth SP. Getting rid of Dempster would be ideal IMO, but who is going to take on his bloated contract?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to notin's comment:

    Lester should have his option exercised.  No brainer.

     

    If the Sox deal a SP, Lackey might have as much if not more appeal than Lester based on his performance this year and his remaining contract,  which is $15.75 mill over the next TWO years...

     

    Two years of Lackey for about $2mill more might be very tempting, and the Sox might be eise to sell high beforeLackey enters his age 35 season. ..

     

     

    “Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

    -Shel Silverstein



    That's a VERY good point.  I think the argument could be made that in the right deal Lackey or Lester should be moved this offseason.  Lackey....MIGHT bring you back more value than Lester.  

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

     



    Give me a list of every starter that is available for 13 million that is better than Lester. Also you have made it clear that you only use ERA to determine slotting doesn'r that mean he is better than both Peavy and Dempster?

     

     



    We have five pitchers already under contract for 2014. And you want to add a sixth at $13M. If you want to go pitcher shopping, feel free. I am not going to do your stat work for you. My preference is to use younger pitchers who are under team control for a long time rather than go out and buy an expensive #6 SP. We have several prospects coming up who should be able to help us next year. Workman is already on the team and has generally looked good. Morales may be able to start as well. Overpaying a sixth SP is not a smart way to run a baseball team.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    By our not going to do stat work means you can't think of any. Give a list of criteria that he is not as good as Peavy or Dempster. I can explain why he is having a better season statistically than Doubrant. You can't illistrate how he is worst than Peavy or Dempster. Given the fact you refuse to acknowledge the Sox are going to finish with a winning record, I don't expect you are going to come up with anything here.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Lester should have his option exercised.  No brainer.

     

    If the Sox deal a SP, Lackey might have as much if not more appeal than Lester based on his performance this year and his remaining contract,  which is $15.75 mill over the next TWO years...

     

    Two years of Lackey for about $2mill more might be very tempting, and the Sox might be eise to sell high beforeLackey enters his age 35 season. ..

     

     

    “Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

    -Shel Silverstein

     




    That would also be OK. Dempster would then be a SP who provides depth at #6 and we would have to get or promote another SP. The way things are RIGHT NOW we have five SP under contract and that makes Lester an expensive sixth SP. Getting rid of Dempster would be ideal IMO, but who is going to take on his bloated contract?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Dempster has one year left.  His contract I'd not bloated.  Worse contracts gey moved EVERY YEAR.

     

    One of the worst contracts for a SP in MLB history was Mike Hampton, and his deal was traded TWICE.

     

    Dempster might not bring back that much, but hebis hardly immovable...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

     

     




    Hes better than out #5 Dempster, whose making 13.25M per. your making no sense.

    You dont have any patience and give up when it gets rough. Thats the truth. You often say a game is over by the 2nd or 3rd inning, so its no surprise that you would give up on a solid starter who has a career 95-55 record in the ALE and a career sub 4 ERA, because hes transitioning from a thrower to a real pitcher. Its not a smooth transition, but he has shown improvements as roy has posted. The going got a little rough for Lester and you have been all over him and are ready to give up. 

    Never mind 2012, he had no support from his 2 useless pitching coaches and an even more useless manager who would often hang him out to dry than help him. I was at that Toronto game last year when Valentine should have pulled him and didnt. He never had anyone's back but his own. Farrell and Nieves have worked with him and hes been better this year than last year, but hes not quite there yet. Those who have patients and understand fully what this kind of transition consists of, would NOT give up on this kid. Not with a small 13M option. Hes better than dempster. You tend to give up very easily PG. Example: You wanted to remove Lackey in the 1st and 2nd innings because he had a rough start. I said no, he'll be fine, just give him a chance to right the ship. He retired 14 of his next 16 batters pitching 5 more solid innings and saving the pen. I know you know baseball, but this game requires more patients than you have shown. Im picking up that option as soon as the last pitch is thrown and looking forward to a 2014 with Lester in the rotation.

    Next year is Lesters make or break year with the Sox. I try and move Dempster to an NL team if I can this off season. If Im spending 13M on either one of those guys its the younger and very talented Jon Lester. I know what Im getting from Dempster. I believe Lester can and will be better than he is now, which is already better than what Dempster is.

    Now, all bets are off if your presented with a trade offer that you just can refuse. But unless its overwhelming, Im keeping Lester. Good starting pitching isnt easy to come by and isnt cheap. Also finding someone to handle the bright lights and pressure in Boston isnt east either. Lester has already proved he can do it.

     

     



    Right now we are STUCK with Dempster; he is under contract for next year. If he were not under contract I would vote to extend Lester at $13M-but he IS under contract. Thats the problem. I don't want two #5 SP at $13M each. If we can trade Dempster (very unlikely IMO) then sure, lets see what Lester can do next year. If not, I give him a qualifying offer or trade him.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    We got rid of 250M worth of contracts. I hardly believe we are "stuck" with a 13M one. We might have to eat a couple Mil., but Id certainly rather have Lester than Dempster at this point and by the sounds of it, you would too.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to notin's comment:

    Lester should have his option exercised.  No brainer.

     

    If the Sox deal a SP, Lackey might have as much if not more appeal than Lester based on his performance this year and his remaining contract,  which is $15.75 mill over the next TWO years...

     

    Two years of Lackey for about $2mill more might be very tempting, and the Sox might be eise to sell high beforeLackey enters his age 35 season. ..

     

     

    “Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

    -Shel Silverstein




    Lackey makes $15.25M next year (plus $.5M bonus), but has the club option for 2015 at the league minimum due to the injury clause. That brings him to about $16.5M total for 2015 and 2016 combined. My guess is that he'd be a hot trade comodity this winter at about $8.2M x 2.

    I'm not saying we should trade Lackey. $8.2M x 2 is good for us as well, but notin has a good point about the age thing. Taking Lester's option and trading Lackey would free up a lot of money to upgrade the pen and other areas of high need. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Lester should have his option exercised.  No brainer.

     

    If the Sox deal a SP, Lackey might have as much if not more appeal than Lester based on his performance this year and his remaining contract,  which is $15.75 mill over the next TWO years...

     

    Two years of Lackey for about $2mill more might be very tempting, and the Sox might be eise to sell high beforeLackey enters his age 35 season. ..

     

     

    “Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

    -Shel Silverstein

     




     

    Lackey makes $15.25M next year (plus $.5M bonus), but has the club option for 2015 at the league minimum due to the injury clause. That brings him to about $16.5M total for 2015 and 2016 combined. My guess is that he'd be a hot trade comodity this winter at about $8.2M x 2.

    I'm not saying we should trade Lackey. $8.2M x 2 is good for us as well, but notin has a good point about the age thing. Taking Lester's option and trading Lackey would free up a lot of money to upgrade the pen and other areas of high need. 

    [/QUOTE]

    First of all, why everyone want to trade Lackey who is right now a #2 starting rotation pitcher?  If we need to find someone to replace him, that newly pitcher is going to be asking for more than 10 millions dollars a year contract anyway.  

    Dempster is the #5 or #6 pitcher, and he is the one need to go first!!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    Lester should have his option exercised.  No brainer.

     

    If the Sox deal a SP, Lackey might have as much if not more appeal than Lester based on his performance this year and his remaining contract,  which is $15.75 mill over the next TWO years...

     

    Two years of Lackey for about $2mill more might be very tempting, and the Sox might be eise to sell high beforeLackey enters his age 35 season. ..

     

     

    “Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

    -Shel Silverstein

     

     




     

     

    Lackey makes $15.25M next year (plus $.5M bonus), but has the club option for 2015 at the league minimum due to the injury clause. That brings him to about $16.5M total for 2015 and 2016 combined. My guess is that he'd be a hot trade comodity this winter at about $8.2M x 2.

    I'm not saying we should trade Lackey. $8.2M x 2 is good for us as well, but notin has a good point about the age thing. Taking Lester's option and trading Lackey would free up a lot of money to upgrade the pen and other areas of high need. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    First of all, why everyone want to trade Lackey who is right now a #2 starting rotation pitcher?  If we need to find someone to replace him, that newly pitcher is going to be asking for more than 10 millions dollars a year contract anyway.  

     

    Dempster is the #5 or #6 pitcher, and he is the one need to go first!!

    [/QUOTE]

    Because Dempster plus what you can get for Lackey is probably better thsn Lackey plus what you can get for Dempster.

     

    Yhe notion of "selling high" is usually only addressed after the fact.  As in "we SHOULD HAVE moved him when..."  But with Lackey's age, performance and contract, this would clearly be the time to consider it...

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

     



    Give me a list of every starter that is available for 13 million that is better than Lester. Also you have made it clear that you only use ERA to determine slotting doesn'r that mean he is better than both Peavy and Dempster?

     

     

     



    We have five pitchers already under contract for 2014. And you want to add a sixth at $13M. If you want to go pitcher shopping, feel free. I am not going to do your stat work for you. My preference is to use younger pitchers who are under team control for a long time rather than go out and buy an expensive #6 SP. We have several prospects coming up who should be able to help us next year. Workman is already on the team and has generally looked good. Morales may be able to start as well. Overpaying a sixth SP is not a smart way to run a baseball team.

     

     



    By our not going to do stat work means you can't think of any. Give a list of criteria that he is not as good as Peavy or Dempster. I can explain why he is having a better season statistically than Doubrant. You can't illistrate how he is worst than Peavy or Dempster. Given the fact you refuse to acknowledge the Sox are going to finish with a winning record, I don't expect you are going to come up with anything here.

     



    No, it means I am not going to do any more homework for you. You asserted that you would rather have Lester in the postseason than Doubront. I showed you that Lester's ERA over the past two months is almost twice that of Doubront. If you believe your opinion has equal validity to those of us who DO do their homework, then you will have to start doing yours.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

     

    Lester should have his option exercised.  No brainer.

     

    If the Sox deal a SP, Lackey might have as much if not more appeal than Lester based on his performance this year and his remaining contract,  which is $15.75 mill over the next TWO years...

     

    Two years of Lackey for about $2mill more might be very tempting, and the Sox might be eise to sell high beforeLackey enters his age 35 season. ..

     

     

    “Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

    -Shel Silverstein

     

     




    That would also be OK. Dempster would then be a SP who provides depth at #6 and we would have to get or promote another SP. The way things are RIGHT NOW we have five SP under contract and that makes Lester an expensive sixth SP. Getting rid of Dempster would be ideal IMO, but who is going to take on his bloated contract?

     

     



    Dempster has one year left.  His contract I'd not bloated.  Worse contracts gey moved EVERY YEAR.

     

     

    One of the worst contracts for a SP in MLB history was Mike Hampton, and his deal was traded TWICE.

     

    Dempster might not bring back that much, but hebis hardly immovable...



    Good luck trying to get rid of a one year contract for a 36 year old fading pitcher whose ERA is 4.67 and whose WHIP is 1.48 at $13M. We would get NOTHING for him at all; we might even be forced to eat some of his contract to rid ourselves of him. So we are STUCK with him, in all likelihood, next year. Sure there are worse contracts-much worse. That doesn't make this contract a good value.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

     



    Give me a list of every starter that is available for 13 million that is better than Lester. Also you have made it clear that you only use ERA to determine slotting doesn'r that mean he is better than both Peavy and Dempster?

     

     

     



    We have five pitchers already under contract for 2014. And you want to add a sixth at $13M. If you want to go pitcher shopping, feel free. I am not going to do your stat work for you. My preference is to use younger pitchers who are under team control for a long time rather than go out and buy an expensive #6 SP. We have several prospects coming up who should be able to help us next year. Workman is already on the team and has generally looked good. Morales may be able to start as well. Overpaying a sixth SP is not a smart way to run a baseball team.

     

     



    By our not going to do stat work means you can't think of any. Give a list of criteria that he is not as good as Peavy or Dempster. I can explain why he is having a better season statistically than Doubrant. You can't illistrate how he is worst than Peavy or Dempster. Given the fact you refuse to acknowledge the Sox are going to finish with a winning record, I don't expect you are going to come up with anything here.

     

     



    No, it means I am not going to do any more homework for you. You asserted that you would rather have Lester in the postseason than Doubront. I showed you that Lester's ERA over the past two months is almost twice that of Doubront. If you believe your opinion has equal validity to those of us who DO do their homework, then you will have to start doing yours.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Lester has a better WHIP, more K's, more innings, more QS, more CG than Doubrant. I think it is pretty your the one who isn't doing their homework. There are more stats than ERA, which you seem to ignore. How about you actually do you homework and look at the stats. You went to med school you should be able to critically think and not get upset that some can poke holes in your agrument.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    From reading this thread, it's nice to know that we might be able to unload Dempster's salary and maybe even get "B" prospects in return.

    It's sad that one-time opening day starter Lester is now being discussed as BOTR, but I guess that's life.

    I'd like to hear more from folks in this discussion about how / when they see Workman or Webster in the rotation. They are both very low cost. Workman looks right at home on the mound, and if Webster could ever locate the fastball consistently, he could be a serious force in the rotation.

    I think you could make up a rotation from: Buck, Peavy, Lacky, Dubront, Workman, Webster, Morales ...

    And if you dealt Lester+Dempster, the money freed up, plus a modest supplement, would easily score or carry the payroll of an elite starter.

    Any worthy FA available after this season?

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

     



    Give me a list of every starter that is available for 13 million that is better than Lester. Also you have made it clear that you only use ERA to determine slotting doesn'r that mean he is better than both Peavy and Dempster?

     

     

     



    We have five pitchers already under contract for 2014. And you want to add a sixth at $13M. If you want to go pitcher shopping, feel free. I am not going to do your stat work for you. My preference is to use younger pitchers who are under team control for a long time rather than go out and buy an expensive #6 SP. We have several prospects coming up who should be able to help us next year. Workman is already on the team and has generally looked good. Morales may be able to start as well. Overpaying a sixth SP is not a smart way to run a baseball team.

     

     



    By our not going to do stat work means you can't think of any. Give a list of criteria that he is not as good as Peavy or Dempster. I can explain why he is having a better season statistically than Doubrant. You can't illistrate how he is worst than Peavy or Dempster. Given the fact you refuse to acknowledge the Sox are going to finish with a winning record, I don't expect you are going to come up with anything here.

     

     

     



    No, it means I am not going to do any more homework for you. You asserted that you would rather have Lester in the postseason than Doubront. I showed you that Lester's ERA over the past two months is almost twice that of Doubront. If you believe your opinion has equal validity to those of us who DO do their homework, then you will have to start doing yours.

     

     



    Lester has a better WHIP, more K's, more innings, more QS, more CG than Doubrant. I think it is pretty your the one who isn't doing their homework. There are more stats than ERA, which you seem to ignore. How about you actually do you homework and look at the stats. You went to med school you should be able to critically think and not get upset that some can poke holes in your agrument.

     

     



    Lester's ERA+ for the year is 96-BELOW average. Doubront's ERA+ is 115-above average and about 20% higher FOR THE YEAR than Lester's. ERA+ is the single best measure of a pitcher's performance. You want another indicator of their relative worth: Lester's WAR for the year is 1.5; Doubronts is 2.3-about 50% higher. There is a reason for that. He has pitched more consistently better. Lester also gives up almost TWICE AS MANY HRs/9 INNINGs as Doubront: 1.1 to 0.6. Thats worth something too. Furthermore, over the last few months (its much more important to keep a pitcher who has been pitching well recently than one who pitched well in April) Doubront's ERA is 2.57 and Lester's is 5.37, actually OVER twice as high. Now Lester has done better over the last several starts, but he has not done better than Doubront has done for two months.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

     



    Give me a list of every starter that is available for 13 million that is better than Lester. Also you have made it clear that you only use ERA to determine slotting doesn'r that mean he is better than both Peavy and Dempster?

     

     

     



    We have five pitchers already under contract for 2014. And you want to add a sixth at $13M. If you want to go pitcher shopping, feel free. I am not going to do your stat work for you. My preference is to use younger pitchers who are under team control for a long time rather than go out and buy an expensive #6 SP. We have several prospects coming up who should be able to help us next year. Workman is already on the team and has generally looked good. Morales may be able to start as well. Overpaying a sixth SP is not a smart way to run a baseball team.

     

     



    By our not going to do stat work means you can't think of any. Give a list of criteria that he is not as good as Peavy or Dempster. I can explain why he is having a better season statistically than Doubrant. You can't illistrate how he is worst than Peavy or Dempster. Given the fact you refuse to acknowledge the Sox are going to finish with a winning record, I don't expect you are going to come up with anything here.

     

     

     



    No, it means I am not going to do any more homework for you. You asserted that you would rather have Lester in the postseason than Doubront. I showed you that Lester's ERA over the past two months is almost twice that of Doubront. If you believe your opinion has equal validity to those of us who DO do their homework, then you will have to start doing yours.

     

     



    Lester has a better WHIP, more K's, more innings, more QS, more CG than Doubrant. I think it is pretty your the one who isn't doing their homework. There are more stats than ERA, which you seem to ignore. How about you actually do you homework and look at the stats. You went to med school you should be able to critically think and not get upset that some can poke holes in your agrument.

     

     



    Lester's ERA+ for the year is 96-BELOW average. Doubront's ERA+ is 115-above average and about 20% higher FOR THE YEAR than Lester's. ERA+ is the single best measure of a pitcher's performance. You want another indicator of their relative worth: Lester's WAR for the year is 1.5; Doubronts is 2.3-about 50% higher. There is a reason for that. He has pitched more consistently better. Lester also gives up almost TWICE AS MANY HRs/9 INNINGs as Doubront: 1.1 to 0.6. Thats worth something too. Furthermore, over the last few months (its much more important to keep a pitcher who has been pitching well recently than one who pitched well in April) Doubront's ERA is 2.57 and Lester's is 5.37, actually OVER twice as high. Now Lester has done better over the last several starts, but he has not done better than Doubront has done for two months.

     




    The only legit concern I have about Doubie is his IP this year. hes about 4 games away from last years mark of 161IP. Teams usually only go around 30-40IP over the previous year because they have found that the pitcher can regress the next year as well as either hitting a wall or it can cause an injury from overuse in the same year. add 5 starts in sept. at 6-7IP each and hes just about at his limit before the playoffs even start. They will have to take that into consideration as well as monitor hisperformance over the next 1.5 months.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    The only legit concern I have about Doubie is his IP this year. hes about 4 games away from last years mark of 161IP. Teams usually only go around 30-40IP over the previous year because they have found that the pitcher can regress the next year as well as either hitting a wall or it can cause an injury from overuse in the same year. add 5 starts in sept. at 6-7IP each and hes just about at his limit before the playoffs even start. They will have to take that into consideration as well as monitor hisperformance over the next 1.5 months.

    I have spoke of this several times this year. I think that when Buch comes back, we should give Doubront a 2 start break. Then, after Doubront returns, I'd give Dempster 2 starts off, Lester 2 starts off, and maybe Lackey 2 off. By then we should know our best starting 5, and everyone should be well rested for the playoffs. However, if we slip in the standings, we may not have the luxury of giving our best starters time off.

    Sox4ever

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The only legit concern I have about Doubie is his IP this year. hes about 4 games away from last years mark of 161IP. Teams usually only go around 30-40IP over the previous year because they have found that the pitcher can regress the next year as well as either hitting a wall or it can cause an injury from overuse in the same year. add 5 starts in sept. at 6-7IP each and hes just about at his limit before the playoffs even start. They will have to take that into consideration as well as monitor hisperformance over the next 1.5 months.

    I have spoke of this several times this year. I think that when Buch comes back, we should give Doubront a 2 start break. Then, after Doubront returns, I'd give Dempster 2 starts off, Lester 2 starts off, and maybe Lackey 2 off. By then we should know our best starting 5, and everyone should be well rested for the playoffs. However, if we slip in the standings, we may not have the luxury of giving our best starters time off.

    Sox4ever




    Since they have put Workman, who I believe is their best option as a #6 starter, in the pen, Im not so keen on guys like Morales, Wright, Webster. Hopefully they can figure it out when Buch comes back. Dempster #6?

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    Webster has looked a lot better lately in Pawtucket...I would not mind seeing him again before the end of the year, and giving Doubront and our other SP's a little bit of a rest would be the perfect excuse.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

    No, no way.  In my opinion the return we would receive for trading him should be greater than 1 draft pick.  Sox are better off either exercising the option or trading him. 

     

     




    I could live with trading him too. I just don't want to pay our #5 SP (#6, really) $13M. I think thats what they will end up doing, but IMO its a mistake.

     

     



    Give me a list of every starter that is available for 13 million that is better than Lester. Also you have made it clear that you only use ERA to determine slotting doesn'r that mean he is better than both Peavy and Dempster?

     

     

     



    We have five pitchers already under contract for 2014. And you want to add a sixth at $13M. If you want to go pitcher shopping, feel free. I am not going to do your stat work for you. My preference is to use younger pitchers who are under team control for a long time rather than go out and buy an expensive #6 SP. We have several prospects coming up who should be able to help us next year. Workman is already on the team and has generally looked good. Morales may be able to start as well. Overpaying a sixth SP is not a smart way to run a baseball team.

     

     



    By our not going to do stat work means you can't think of any. Give a list of criteria that he is not as good as Peavy or Dempster. I can explain why he is having a better season statistically than Doubrant. You can't illistrate how he is worst than Peavy or Dempster. Given the fact you refuse to acknowledge the Sox are going to finish with a winning record, I don't expect you are going to come up with anything here.

     

     

     



    No, it means I am not going to do any more homework for you. You asserted that you would rather have Lester in the postseason than Doubront. I showed you that Lester's ERA over the past two months is almost twice that of Doubront. If you believe your opinion has equal validity to those of us who DO do their homework, then you will have to start doing yours.

     

     



    Lester has a better WHIP, more K's, more innings, more QS, more CG than Doubrant. I think it is pretty your the one who isn't doing their homework. There are more stats than ERA, which you seem to ignore. How about you actually do you homework and look at the stats. You went to med school you should be able to critically think and not get upset that some can poke holes in your agrument.

     

     



    Lester's ERA+ for the year is 96-BELOW average. Doubront's ERA+ is 115-above average and about 20% higher FOR THE YEAR than Lester's. ERA+ is the single best measure of a pitcher's performance. You want another indicator of their relative worth: Lester's WAR for the year is 1.5; Doubronts is 2.3-about 50% higher. There is a reason for that. He has pitched more consistently better. Lester also gives up almost TWICE AS MANY HRs/9 INNINGs as Doubront: 1.1 to 0.6. Thats worth something too. Furthermore, over the last few months (its much more important to keep a pitcher who has been pitching well recently than one who pitched well in April) Doubront's ERA is 2.57 and Lester's is 5.37, actually OVER twice as high. Now Lester has done better over the last several starts, but he has not done better than Doubront has done for two months.

     



    The larger point that you are missing is how ineffiecent Doubrant is compared to Lester. The higher WHIP and the less the inning (not to mention the less K's) means Doubrant has a lower ERA than Lester almost solely based on luck. I will give you with Doubrant's nearly 1.50 WHIP he has been having more good luck than Lester's bad. In the playoffs Doubrant is more likely to struggle because teams are going to be more patient than the regular season. This why Lester is better going forward especially when you include the fact Doubrant and Lester are trending in opposite directions.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

    Webster has looked a lot better lately in Pawtucket...I would not mind seeing him again before the end of the year, and giving Doubront and our other SP's a little bit of a rest would be the perfect excuse.



    Go with the old 7 man rotation.

     
  22. This post has been removed.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to torgorocks' comment:

    I would opt for the Qualifying offer, but only if i was 100% sure he would decline it.



    Yeah but then your only getting a draft pick if he walks.  Lester has a higher trade value than that.

     
  24. This post has been removed.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester: club option or qualifying offer?

    In response to torgorocks' comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to torgorocks' comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    I would opt for the Qualifying offer, but only if i was 100% sure he would decline it.

     

     

     

     

     



    Yeah but then your only getting a draft pick if he walks.  Lester has a higher trade value than that.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    'Walks' is the key word, whether the SOX trade him or whether they get a draft pick.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    A QO would be more than his option.....so why would we decline his option if we don't want him to walk?  Even if you wanted to work out an extension you give him the leverage by making him a FA.....that makes zero sense.

     

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