Re: Lester for Wil Myers?
posted at 11/27/2012 11:08 PM EST
I agree it's more likely that Lester is having a bad patch than being on the downhill slide. I also believe that - in isolation - higher velocity is generally better than lower velocity....and even a .6 drop is a negative....much more so if it's part of a trend.
But I think the key question is why his velocity has dropped (a bit). I'm no expert (where's expitch when you need him!) but would suggest the following possibilities in acending order of likelihood:
- Aging - seems ridiculous to me, he's only 28
- Physical conditioning - hard to believe because he's not obviously unfit and, in the words of Johnny Sain (according to Bouton) - "you can't run the ball over the plate". But maybe a bit, who knows?
- General wear-and-tear - seems unlikey to me, pretty steady workload, smooth motion
- Mechanical issues - as Max wrote he's had a parade of pitching coaches (and catchers) for a couple of years
- Specific injury problem - is his elbow/shoulder wearing out?
So to those worried about Lester's drop in velocity, which of those do you think it is, or what other reason do you attribute it to?
And whichever it is (are), what are your specific concerns?
There was a great article at fangraphs about pitchers who have lost velocity not due to injury. A vast amount- like just about everyone- never regained the velocity.
Can Lester re-invent himself?
Maybe. But, it usually takes time.
While Lester looked good his last 12 starts or so, he only let up less than 3 ERs in 3 of those last 12 games and only went over 7 IP twice.
Can you provide the link? Sounds interesting.
I would be surprised if many/any of them were 28, smooth motion, no history of structural injuries, no youthful high use, etc.