Lester no longer the ace

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from TampaGolfer. Show TampaGolfer's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    My God, you are all out of your heads!  The definition of an ace is one who can win when he doesn't have his best stuff.  Lester could have easily buckled after the 2nd hr, but he didn't.  It was early enough that if he found a way, which he did, the Sox could come back.

    Isn't this how it's supposed to be? We just swept the Yanks.  It matters not that they are playing badly as no one took it lightly playing the Sox when we were 2-10! 

    Now, let's see if they can get on a roll and play like this for a couple of weeks.  Then we can discuss how the 1st quarter has played out. 

    THEY WON!  Leave it be and help them beat the O's for a change!  Buck has found something that makes them no longer the least in the east, especially against the Sox.

    I'm thrilled win the 3 game sweep!  It's good and they are finally at .500.

    Let's get at least a little positive here.

    Just my thoughts!
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from zack5042. Show zack5042's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    In Response to Re: Lester no longer the ace:
    [QUOTE]You are seriously going to dethrone Lester because he has a few rough starts? You have a great point here for sure, but one could ask why Beckett was dethroned to begin with due to injuries.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Was about to say that a few times but decided to read the rest of the comments and saw that you already posted it.
    You guys are criticising him for saying that lester may not be the ace anymore yet you did the same to beckett. I'm not saying i agree because i would rather have Lester giving up 4 runs through 6 innings a few times with a great april then a rough april then a magnificent may
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from sgtnull. Show sgtnull's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Lester has the 2nd best winning percentage all time of anyone with 50 or more decisions. and he isn't an ace?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Jon Lester has already been demoted by the fans?  And on the night he sets the record for career winning pct (50 decisions minimum).

    Lester is now 5-1 3.28.

    Bear in mind, in 2010 on this date he was 3-2 3.91

    On this date in 2009, he was 2-4 6.51.

    2008? 2-2 3.95

    This is about that point in the season when he turns it on and starts shedding his cumbersome April/May numbers.

    Lester is the team ace.  Book it...
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Max, another quality start .... statistically.  (Just got in from donuts ... happy to be able to pass on what you all aready know.  Hey, did you hear they got bin Laden???)
     
    Another win.  Over the ancient archrival, to boot.

    His ERA is not close to 4, he just crested 3 with last night's game ... it's lower than his ERA of last season or about the same and less than his lifetime ERA.

    He's really doing terribly.  5 wins in out of 6 ... (oops again, for me ...) 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    In Response to Re: Lester no longer the ace:
    [QUOTE]Beckett's career has been so up and down, but I feel much of it can be traced to underlying injuries. Schill was clearly the ace in 2006, but somehow Beckett managed to win more (16) with a 5.01 ERA. In 2007, Beckett was the clear ace (20-11 3.27  1.141 WHIP) and should have won the Cy Young (see harness's piece). His post season was spectacular. 2008 was an interesting year: Dice-K led in ERA 2.90 to Lester's 3.21 (Beck and Wake had respectable low 4 ERAs) Dice-K led Lester in wins 18-16 However, 3 starters had more IP than Dice-K. The WHIP leaders were: Wake 1.182 Beck  1.187 Lest   1.274 Dice   1.324 It's hard to say anyone won over the ace position that year, even though Lester and Dice-K both had better years than Beckett in the traditional categories of judgement (wins and ERA) that to me are flawed. It could be argued that Beckett and Lester were co-aces in 2009, and if you go soley by ERA, I guess some might say Lestr became the ace in 2009, but to me, Beckett was still the ace at this point. Some injuries had effecte his numbers, but even if you put that aside, the numbers were pretty equal in 2009: Beckett  17-6  3.86  1.192  3.62 K/BB Lester    15-8   3.41  1.230  3.52 2010 Beckett ws clearly not himself. If you believe someone can take away a position because of injury, then sure, Lester became the ace in 2010. Buch had a better winning % and ERA (2.33 to 3.25), but I'm not one to claim somone is the new ace based on one great season. You may argue with my methodology and my ratings here, but here is how I rate our starters by season since 2007: 2007       Beck - Dice/Wake (tie) -Schill-  Lest -Tav 2008 Dice/ Lest (tie)- Beck /Wake (tie) - Mast 2009 Beck - Lest (tie) - Buc-Wake (tie) - Mast 2010 Buch - Lest - Lack - Dice - Wake- Beck If you look at the last 4 years combined: Beck: 1, 3, 1, 6 Lest:  5, 1, 1, 2 Slight edge to Leser here but not in WAR... Beckett 55-29  4.08  (18.3 WAR) Lester   54-23   3.40  (17.5 WAR) 2008-2010: Lester:   WAR 17.1 (7th in MLB) Beckett: WAR 11.8 (18th) 2009-2010: Lester    11.9 Beckett    6.7 So far, Beckett's off to an awesome start and Lester has struggled a little bit, but it is early. I'd have to say that when Beckett is healthy, I'd say we have co-aces.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Mahvelous piece, Moon.

        I can always count on you for substance.



       .... I'm just the cream pie ....


       Which means .... WE WIN!!!!!
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    I don't think we've seen the best of Lester yet. For this year or his career. 

    -Daf. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan791. Show redsoxfan791's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    In Response to Lester no longer the ace:
    [QUOTE]That's pretty obvious.  I think it's because he can't throw a changeup, which makes it easier for the righthanded hitters. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    He can't throw a change-up?  According to Texas Leaguers, he's thrown his change-up for a strike 72.7% of the time; coaxed swings 59.1% of time; and induced whiffs 13.6% of the time.  Also, his change-up has actually been SO effective, it's been worth 3.9 runs on Fangraphs pitch value scale, which is good for 16th out of 118 in the majors right now.  Other than his cutter, it's been his most effective pitch.  If you want to talk about a pitch that's been ineffective for Lester, it's been his curve ball (-5.1 runs).

    Also, why are we debating who's #1 and #1A?  It seems a bit silly to me. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan791. Show redsoxfan791's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    In Response to Re: Lester no longer the ace:
    [QUOTE]His ERA is getting closer to 4 and is double Beckett's.  Plus, as I keep saying, I don't think he has a changeup, which is not good for a lefty.  Beckett has a good changeup, and it's made all the difference in the world. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    Have you ever heard of small sample size variance?  It's just as likely over their next eight starts or so, that their numbers flip.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Having 2 guys that are good enough to be aces is a good thing.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Nothing wrong with two "aces", is there?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Until 2008, Beckett was on pace for being the best (or one of the best) "money pitcher" in the history of MLB. He's had a rough time since then, but as I said before, I think he was pitching through injuries recently.

    Lester has pitched very well in 42 innings of playoff action, but has had bad luck:

    2-3  2.57  1.119 WHIP

    Imagine if Buch starts puttng up sub 3.00 ERAs regularly as well!
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from marstan. Show marstan's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    LET'S SEE...OUR FRONT THREE ARE BECKETT, BUCHHOLZ
    AND LESTER. THE YANKS HAVE CC, AJ AND ??????
    WE'RE OK. THE TEAM YOU GOTTA WORRY ABOUT SERIOUSLY
    IS THE ORIOLES. WITH A STAFF THAT HAS YOUNGSTERS
    LIKE ARRIETA, BERGESEN, GUTHRIE, BRITTON, AND MATUSZ,
    IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE BALTIMORE PRESENTS
    A CHALLENGE IN THE AL EAST. THEIR HITTING IS DECENT,
    WITH GUERRERO AT DH, AND ROBERTS, MARKAKIS, JONES,
    SCOTT, PLUS HARDY, REYNOLDS AND A DECENT CATCHER IN
    WIETERS. DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM BEAT OUT THE
    SOX IN THE STANDINGS OR AT LEAST BE A REAL PROBLEM.
    WATCH WHAT HAPPENS IN THIS SERIES WHEN THEY FACE
    THE SOFT UNDERBELLY OF OUR STAFF...DICE AND LACKEY.
    WE COULD END UP DROPPING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
    GAMES TO A REJUVENATED O'S SQUAD. I WOULD LIKE TO SAY
    THAT I AM NOT AN ORIOLES FAN, BUT THAT I DO WATCH
    ALL THE GAMES ON MLB AND FOLLOW NEARLY ALL TEAMS.
    THEY JUST BEAT THE RAYS DECISIVELY AND ARE NOT A
    SOFT TOUCH AS A LOT OF SOX FANS MAY THINK !!
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Lester's stats project to 20 and 4 with 235 strikeouts for the year.  His ERA is 3.28 and opponents are hitting 229 against him.

    Think the Red Sox should cut him?
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimdavis. Show jimdavis's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Could you imagine fans of any other team reading this thread about questioning Lester?  A power lefty with a bulldog mentality at the top of the rotation.  Which team in the league wouldn't kill to add him?  He'd be the clear ace on all but a couple of teams.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from CTJake14. Show CTJake14's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Who cares who the ace is?  5-1 3.28 ERA?  I'll take it.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pschuller. Show pschuller's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    In Response to Re: Lester no longer the ace:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Lester no longer the ace : Actually, this is the definition of an ace. Big game, makes early mistakes but battles through it, settles down and put the team in position to win. That's as much of being an ace as going 7 innings with no runs.
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]

    Precisely! And BTW, did anyone notice that with last night's win, Lester now has the highest winning percentage (of pitchers with at least 50 wins) in baseball history! Love what Josh is doing this year, but he'll have to stay on that pace all year before he replaces Lester as the ace!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    I made a bold prediction at the start of the year that Lester would win his 1st CY and Gonzo would be AL MVP this year...To say Lester is not an ace is nothing short of ridiculous IMO. He'd be a #1 on most teams In MLB and If the Sox dangled him out there (never gonna happen) they could restock their whole farm system with the return...
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Lester, CBuch, Becks.......ace?.... yeah,who wouldn't want that problem?...Tongue out
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    In Response to Re: Lester no longer the ace:
    [QUOTE]If he goes to the mound another 20 times with the stuff he had last night, then I'd have to agree...However that's an unlikely senerio given his ability and petigree... As for who's our "ace" we have a few guys that could lay claim to that tittle when thier on thier game (Beckett & Buchholz). That said Lester has won 54 games since the start of 2008, 3rd most in MLB behind CC (60) and Halladay (64). Cleary Lester has been the best pitcher on our staff and amoung the best in the game over that period of time. Let's just say that if Beckett continues to pitch as he has early on I like our chances. Ditto Buchholz...
    Posted by Beantowne[/QUOTE]

    I agree Beantowne..Its a good problem to have when you have 3 pitchers that could be considered "aces"
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from lvanDrago. Show lvanDrago's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Beckett has been "dethroned" as the ace not because of injuries but because of inconsistency. His entire career has been up and down and a real "ace" (whatever that means) doesn't have that many bleeps on the radar.

    Just look at Beckett's ERA's since coming to Boston:

    5.01
    3.27
    4.03
    3.86
    5.78
    1.75

    Plot that in a graph and it'd look like a rollercoaster.

    If you now look at Lester's ERAs since 2008, they are much flatter and consistent.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Upon reflection.............

    You know, he did say "Lester no longer THE ace." 

    Actually this reflects a GREAT ARGUMENT to have!  He may have inadvertently stumbled on to the BEST problem the Sox could hope for........

    Beckett & Buchholz are going to give Lester a run for his money & the Cy Young.

    3 Aces!?!?!!!!!!!!!   I'll take that hand any day of the week!!!!   :)  :)
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Also....  If Dice-K & Lackey just Buch up & PITCH?????  We're looking good 1 - 5
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Ace?  Ace?  Ace is high card or ace is low card or ace is your shutdown starter.  This semantic debate is silly.  If, as max suggests based on a couple/few starts, lester no longer gets to walk around with the honorary framed certificate and ribbon thats says Staff Ace, ALL THE BETTER.  Good to have some 'ace' competition up in here (as if they even care about our meaningless designation).  Hopefully Clay Buchholz will overtake Josh and jon at some point and be the ACE.  Three Ace's??  Sweet.  Thats a winning hand.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from HarryBallz. Show HarryBallz's posts

    Re: Lester no longer the ace

    Lester has a problem commanding his pitches and the 60/40 split on strikes vs balls is telling.  He has started walking opposing batters again and that is a reflection on mechanics and concentration.  

    Toughen up, John.  
     
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