Lester on pace for 15 wins

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to Iowasoxfann's comment:

    "Breakholz"?? Funny to a ten year old.


    Crapoli, Slackey, and the old classic from years past Paplebum ... some very clever folks here.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to 37stories' comment:

    His career ERA is 3.80 and as I write this it is around 3.90.

    What were people freaking out about again?

    I can't remember.



    The turnaround lately has been great.  It's what we've all been hoping for.

    But there were legit reasons to be worried about him.

    Sept/11 ERA 5.40

    2012 ERA 4.82

    2013 ERA at All-Star break 4.58

    That's a long stretch of pitching to an ERA about 1.5 runs higher than what we would expect from him. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

    Agree that when Lester Picks up the pace he does seem better. Maybe Peavy talking to him. Lester is the secret to this season. Need him bad.

     

     



    Lester is important (and so far he has done better than I expected this year, especially recently), but the key to this season is Breakholz. If he can come back and be as effective as he was when he was actually pitching we can play October baseball this year.

     

     

     


    Even if he doesn't.. a rotation of LAckey, Lester, Peavy, Doobie is pretty formidable. Now, i am in no way saying that we're better off without him than with him... just saying that if for some reason he doesn't come back or is ineffective upon his return then we still have decent chances of making a deep run.

    i worry more about our BP going forward. Uehara, Taz and Breslow are the only dependable arms in there day in, day out.



    First, Taz has not been reliable of late. And second, without Breakholz our SP rotation is far inferior to the Tigers. With him we are only a little worse.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

    In response to Iowasoxfann's comment:

     

    "Breakholz"?? Funny to a ten year old.

     


    Crapoli, Slackey, and the old classic from years past Paplebum ... some very clever folks here.

     



    Its KNap, Lacking, and Pimplebum. Come on Lloyd: if you are going to make fun of the nicknames, at least get them right!

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    if he wins 15 games this year then that would be 3 mroe wins than he got in his last season pitching in 2011 when he posted the worst numbers in the league. W/L for pitchers is a joke. anyone who puts any weight into that stat probably still listens to music ATrac tapes and uses morse code as opposed to texting. Talk about outdated.....

    Some say a storm is coming, Some say the end is near.

    Some think it's all so hazy, I think it's all so clear.

    Some say they have the answers, some say they know the truth.

    Some people live in question, some people have no clue.

    If there was no tomorrow, if there was just today.

    would you make different choices? or would you stay the same?

     

     



    Its 8-track mef. Thats funny

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    i've only heard my grandparents talk about them soooTongue Out

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Touche my friend... But I was born in 1970, so they were already in that transition to cassette tapes by the time I was old enough. I do remember my dad cranking his rolling stones and elvis 8-Tracks all the time. It was a good influence on my future musical skills and taste.

    My uncle had his grandfunk railroad one that we used to play over and over on our way to pats games back in the day. It was kinda the official music for the ride. Good times.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

    Agree that when Lester Picks up the pace he does seem better. Maybe Peavy talking to him. Lester is the secret to this season. Need him bad.

     

     



    Lester is important (and so far he has done better than I expected this year, especially recently), but the key to this season is Breakholz. If he can come back and be as effective as he was when he was actually pitching we can play October baseball this year.

     

     

     


    Even if he doesn't.. a rotation of LAckey, Lester, Peavy, Doobie is pretty formidable. Now, i am in no way saying that we're better off without him than with him... just saying that if for some reason he doesn't come back or is ineffective upon his return then we still have decent chances of making a deep run.

    i worry more about our BP going forward. Uehara, Taz and Breslow are the only dependable arms in there day in, day out.

     



    First, Taz has not been reliable of late. And second, without Breakholz our SP rotation is far inferior to the Tigers. With him we are only a little worse.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Last 30 days: 2.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

    Agree that when Lester Picks up the pace he does seem better. Maybe Peavy talking to him. Lester is the secret to this season. Need him bad.

     

     



    Lester is important (and so far he has done better than I expected this year, especially recently), but the key to this season is Breakholz. If he can come back and be as effective as he was when he was actually pitching we can play October baseball this year.

     

     

     


    Even if he doesn't.. a rotation of LAckey, Lester, Peavy, Doobie is pretty formidable. Now, i am in no way saying that we're better off without him than with him... just saying that if for some reason he doesn't come back or is ineffective upon his return then we still have decent chances of making a deep run.

    i worry more about our BP going forward. Uehara, Taz and Breslow are the only dependable arms in there day in, day out.

     

     



    First, Taz has not been reliable of late.And second, without Breakholz our SP rotation is far inferior to the Tigers. With him we are only a little worse.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Last 30 days: 2.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09

     

    [/QUOTE]

    With 2 BS in his last 4-5 starts and wasnt that effective yesterday

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

    Agree that when Lester Picks up the pace he does seem better. Maybe Peavy talking to him. Lester is the secret to this season. Need him bad.

     

     



    Lester is important (and so far he has done better than I expected this year, especially recently), but the key to this season is Breakholz. If he can come back and be as effective as he was when he was actually pitching we can play October baseball this year.

     

     

     


    Even if he doesn't.. a rotation of LAckey, Lester, Peavy, Doobie is pretty formidable. Now, i am in no way saying that we're better off without him than with him... just saying that if for some reason he doesn't come back or is ineffective upon his return then we still have decent chances of making a deep run.

    i worry more about our BP going forward. Uehara, Taz and Breslow are the only dependable arms in there day in, day out.

     

     



    First, Taz has not been reliable of late.And second, without Breakholz our SP rotation is far inferior to the Tigers. With him we are only a little worse.

     

     



    Last 30 days: 2.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09

     




    Not exactly lock down numbers for a RP.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to 37stories' comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    His career ERA is 3.80 and as I write this it is around 3.90.

    What were people freaking out about again?

    I can't remember.

     



    The turnaround lately has been great.  It's what we've all been hoping for.

     

    But there were legit reasons to be worried about him.

    Sept/11 ERA 5.40

    2012 ERA 4.82

    2013 ERA at All-Star break 4.58

    That's a long stretch of pitching to an ERA about 1.5 runs higher than what we would expect from him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Yeah, but not quite as long a stretch as you might think. They way you're using stats, it makes it sound like he was consistently bad that entire stretch and all year until recently.

    Since your first state is based on one month, let's look at his month-by-month ERAs beginning with Sept. 11.

    2011
    5.40

    2012
    4.65
    4.91
    4.01
    9.36
    3.59
    3.96

    2013
    3.11
    3.92
    7.62
    3.13
    2.70

    So if you're going to use Sept. 11 as when he started going bad, it's becoming more clear that the bad stretch lasted five months and the turnaround began in August of 2012. His monthly ERA has been 3.96 or lower in six of the last seven months. So he's actually has had a longer stretch of very good pitching since the Sept. 11 downturn with just one short backslide in June.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

    Agree that when Lester Picks up the pace he does seem better. Maybe Peavy talking to him. Lester is the secret to this season. Need him bad.

     

     



    Lester is important (and so far he has done better than I expected this year, especially recently), but the key to this season is Breakholz. If he can come back and be as effective as he was when he was actually pitching we can play October baseball this year.

     

     

     


    Even if he doesn't.. a rotation of LAckey, Lester, Peavy, Doobie is pretty formidable. Now, i am in no way saying that we're better off without him than with him... just saying that if for some reason he doesn't come back or is ineffective upon his return then we still have decent chances of making a deep run.

    i worry more about our BP going forward. Uehara, Taz and Breslow are the only dependable arms in there day in, day out.

     

     



    First, Taz has not been reliable of late.And second, without Breakholz our SP rotation is far inferior to the Tigers. With him we are only a little worse.

     

     



    Last 30 days: 2.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09

     

     




    Not exactly lock down numbers for a RP.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    ..........AL average in 2013 for RP is 3.67 ERA and 1.29 WHIP

    Al average for RP over the past 3 full seasons (2010-2012), 1.315 WHIP and a 3.75 ERA.

    never said he was an elite reliever. Just a dependable one and one of the best ones we got. As long as he doesn't face the blue jays :p

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    I think the expanded rosters will really work in our favor.  We can hand Ranaudo, Rowland-Smith or Webster an inning or two either in fairly close games when we're ahead, or close games when we're behind.  Maybe even Barnes or Owens if we need a strikeout in a key spot.  I think most teams in the playoff hunt right now would have trouble trusting minor-league arms in anything but a blowout.  

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

    Agree that when Lester Picks up the pace he does seem better. Maybe Peavy talking to him. Lester is the secret to this season. Need him bad.

     

     



    Lester is important (and so far he has done better than I expected this year, especially recently), but the key to this season is Breakholz. If he can come back and be as effective as he was when he was actually pitching we can play October baseball this year.

     

     

     


    Even if he doesn't.. a rotation of LAckey, Lester, Peavy, Doobie is pretty formidable. Now, i am in no way saying that we're better off without him than with him... just saying that if for some reason he doesn't come back or is ineffective upon his return then we still have decent chances of making a deep run.

    i worry more about our BP going forward. Uehara, Taz and Breslow are the only dependable arms in there day in, day out.

     

     



    First, Taz has not been reliable of late.And second, without Breakholz our SP rotation is far inferior to the Tigers. With him we are only a little worse.

     

     



    Last 30 days: 2.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09

     

     

     




    Not exactly lock down numbers for a RP.

     

     



    ..........AL average in 2013 for RP is 3.67 ERA and 1.29 WHIP

     

    Al average for RP over the past 3 full seasons (2010-2012), 1.315 WHIP and a 3.75 ERA.

    never said he was an elite reliever. Just a dependable one and one of the best ones we got. As long as he doesn't face the blue jays :p




    He was very reliable earlier in the season. I think his  workload is catching up to him. His performances have been spotty of late-not what I would call "reliable".

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

    Agree that when Lester Picks up the pace he does seem better. Maybe Peavy talking to him. Lester is the secret to this season. Need him bad.

     

     



    Lester is important (and so far he has done better than I expected this year, especially recently), but the key to this season is Breakholz. If he can come back and be as effective as he was when he was actually pitching we can play October baseball this year.

     

     

     


    Even if he doesn't.. a rotation of LAckey, Lester, Peavy, Doobie is pretty formidable. Now, i am in no way saying that we're better off without him than with him... just saying that if for some reason he doesn't come back or is ineffective upon his return then we still have decent chances of making a deep run.

    i worry more about our BP going forward. Uehara, Taz and Breslow are the only dependable arms in there day in, day out.

     

     



    First, Taz has not been reliable of late.And second, without Breakholz our SP rotation is far inferior to the Tigers. With him we are only a little worse.

     

     



    Last 30 days: 2.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09

     

     

     




    Not exactly lock down numbers for a RP.

     

     



    ..........AL average in 2013 for RP is 3.67 ERA and 1.29 WHIP

     

    Al average for RP over the past 3 full seasons (2010-2012), 1.315 WHIP and a 3.75 ERA.

    never said he was an elite reliever. Just a dependable one and one of the best ones we got. As long as he doesn't face the blue jays :p

     




    He was very reliable earlier in the season. I think his  workload is catching up to him. His performances have been spotty of late-not what I would call "reliable".

     

    [/QUOTE]

    that's an easy one. You focus too much on the negatives. a blip or two on a guys radar completely negates a full season of positives for you PG.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

    Agree that when Lester Picks up the pace he does seem better. Maybe Peavy talking to him. Lester is the secret to this season. Need him bad.

     

     



    Lester is important (and so far he has done better than I expected this year, especially recently), but the key to this season is Breakholz. If he can come back and be as effective as he was when he was actually pitching we can play October baseball this year.

     

     

     


    Even if he doesn't.. a rotation of LAckey, Lester, Peavy, Doobie is pretty formidable. Now, i am in no way saying that we're better off without him than with him... just saying that if for some reason he doesn't come back or is ineffective upon his return then we still have decent chances of making a deep run.

    i worry more about our BP going forward. Uehara, Taz and Breslow are the only dependable arms in there day in, day out.

     

     



    First, Taz has not been reliable of late.And second, without Breakholz our SP rotation is far inferior to the Tigers. With him we are only a little worse.

     

     



    Last 30 days: 2.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09

     

     

     




    Not exactly lock down numbers for a RP.

     

     



    ..........AL average in 2013 for RP is 3.67 ERA and 1.29 WHIP

     

    Al average for RP over the past 3 full seasons (2010-2012), 1.315 WHIP and a 3.75 ERA.

    never said he was an elite reliever. Just a dependable one and one of the best ones we got. As long as he doesn't face the blue jays :p

     

     




    He was very reliable earlier in the season. I think his  workload is catching up to him. His performances have been spotty of late-not what I would call "reliable".

     

     



    that's an easy one. You focus too much on the negatives. a blip or two on a guys radar completely negates a full season of positives for you PG.

     



    And I think you overlook bad performances and focus on past good ones. So where does that leave us?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

    Agree that when Lester Picks up the pace he does seem better. Maybe Peavy talking to him. Lester is the secret to this season. Need him bad.

     

     



    Lester is important (and so far he has done better than I expected this year, especially recently), but the key to this season is Breakholz. If he can come back and be as effective as he was when he was actually pitching we can play October baseball this year.

     

     

     


    Even if he doesn't.. a rotation of LAckey, Lester, Peavy, Doobie is pretty formidable. Now, i am in no way saying that we're better off without him than with him... just saying that if for some reason he doesn't come back or is ineffective upon his return then we still have decent chances of making a deep run.

    i worry more about our BP going forward. Uehara, Taz and Breslow are the only dependable arms in there day in, day out.

     

     



    First, Taz has not been reliable of late.And second, without Breakholz our SP rotation is far inferior to the Tigers. With him we are only a little worse.

     

     



    Last 30 days: 2.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09

     

     

     




    Not exactly lock down numbers for a RP.

     

     



    ..........AL average in 2013 for RP is 3.67 ERA and 1.29 WHIP

     

    Al average for RP over the past 3 full seasons (2010-2012), 1.315 WHIP and a 3.75 ERA.

    never said he was an elite reliever. Just a dependable one and one of the best ones we got. As long as he doesn't face the blue jays :p

     

     




    He was very reliable earlier in the season. I think his  workload is catching up to him. His performances have been spotty of late-not what I would call "reliable".

     

     



    that's an easy one. You focus too much on the negatives. a blip or two on a guys radar completely negates a full season of positives for you PG.

     

     



    And I think you overlook bad performances and focus on past good ones. So where does that leave us?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    well obviously i am right and you are wrong Surprised

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to royf19's comment:

    Yeah, but not quite as long a stretch as you might think. They way you're using stats, it makes it sound like he was consistently bad that entire stretch and all year until recently.

    Since your first state is based on one month, let's look at his month-by-month ERAs beginning with Sept. 11.

    2011
    5.40

    2012
    4.65
    4.91
    4.01
    9.36
    3.59
    3.96

    2013
    3.11
    3.92
    7.62
    3.13
    2.70

    So if you're going to use Sept. 11 as when he started going bad, it's becoming more clear that the bad stretch lasted five months and the turnaround began in August of 2012. His monthly ERA has been 3.96 or lower in six of the last seven months. So he's actually has had a longer stretch of very good pitching since the Sept. 11 downturn with just one short backslide in June. 



    OK, now here's a different way to look at it, using Quality Starts.

    From September 11/11 to the end of June/13, Lester had 56 starts.  24 of those were Quality Starts, including 5 which were the bare minimum of 6 innings, 3 ER.

    So 32 out of 56 starts, or 57% of his starts, were worse than the QS minimum.

    You have to admit, that is a lot of starts that weren't good.

    Now on the positive side, 8 of Lester's last 10 starts since July 1 have been Quality Starts.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    Yeah, but not quite as long a stretch as you might think. They way you're using stats, it makes it sound like he was consistently bad that entire stretch and all year until recently.

    Since your first state is based on one month, let's look at his month-by-month ERAs beginning with Sept. 11.

    2011
    5.40

    2012
    4.65
    4.91
    4.01
    9.36
    3.59
    3.96

    2013
    3.11
    3.92
    7.62
    3.13
    2.70

    So if you're going to use Sept. 11 as when he started going bad, it's becoming more clear that the bad stretch lasted five months and the turnaround began in August of 2012. His monthly ERA has been 3.96 or lower in six of the last seven months. So he's actually has had a longer stretch of very good pitching since the Sept. 11 downturn with just one short backslide in June. 

     



    OK, now here's a different way to look at it, using Quality Starts.

     

    From September 11/11 to the end of June/13, Lester had 56 starts.  24 of those were Quality Starts, including 5 which were the bare minimum of 6 innings, 3 ER.

    So 32 out of 56 starts, or 57% of his starts, were worse than the QS minimum.

    You have to admit, that is a lot of starts that weren't good.

    Now on the positive side, 8 of Lester's last 10 starts since July 1 have been Quality Starts.

     



    QS is a crappy indicator of performance. Three ER in six innings is nothing to write home about for a good SP. In any event, Lester's main problem is that he is a Jeckl and Hyde pitcher. Or in the words of Forest Gump, his starts are like a box of chocolates: you never know what you are going to get. He seems to have the ability, but sometimes he can't seem to harness it. We NEED him to keep it together until the season is over.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    QS is a crappy indicator of performance. Three ER in six innings is nothing to write home about for a good SP.



    QS is far from perfect but it serves a purpose.  3 ER in 6 IP is just the bare minimum.  As I pointed out, 5 of Lester's 24 QS were bare minimum.  But the average QS is obviously better than the minimum.

    QS % is a measure of consistency.  It's a crude measure but it's better than nothing.    

    There's also the Ultra Quality Start measure, which is 7 IP, 2 ER.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    QS is a crappy indicator of performance. Three ER in six innings is nothing to write home about for a good SP.

     



    QS is far from perfect but it serves a purpose.  3 ER in 6 IP is just the bare minimum.  As I pointed out, 5 of Lester's 24 QS were bare minimum.  But the average QS is obviously better than the minimum.

     

    QS % is a measure of consistency.  It's a crude measure but it's better than nothing.    

    There's also the Ultra Quality Start measure, which is 7 IP, 2 ER.



    The "bare minimum" results in an ERA of 4.50 if carried out over a season. I do not view that as "quality"; maybe you do. I think ERA, ERA+, WHIP, K/BB etc are MUCH better measures of a pitcher's performance.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    QS is a crappy indicator of performance. Three ER in six innings is nothing to write home about for a good SP.

     



    QS is far from perfect but it serves a purpose.  3 ER in 6 IP is just the bare minimum.  As I pointed out, 5 of Lester's 24 QS were bare minimum.  But the average QS is obviously better than the minimum.

     

    QS % is a measure of consistency.  It's a crude measure but it's better than nothing.    

    There's also the Ultra Quality Start measure, which is 7 IP, 2 ER.

     

     



    The "bare minimum" results in an ERA of 4.50 if carried out over a season. I do not view that as "quality"; maybe you do. I think ERA, ERA+, WHIP, K/BB etc are MUCH better measures of a pitcher's performance.

     

     

     



    There's a place for all of them.  The problem with composite numbers is they doesn't account for outliers.  If a guy pitches 25 perfect games with 27 Ks in each game but gets totally shelled in his other 8 starts all his composits won't look particularly great but he'll have had the greatest season in history.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    QS is a crappy indicator of performance. Three ER in six innings is nothing to write home about for a good SP.

     



    QS is far from perfect but it serves a purpose.  3 ER in 6 IP is just the bare minimum.  As I pointed out, 5 of Lester's 24 QS were bare minimum.  But the average QS is obviously better than the minimum.

     

    QS % is a measure of consistency.  It's a crude measure but it's better than nothing.    

    There's also the Ultra Quality Start measure, which is 7 IP, 2 ER.

     

     



    The "bare minimum" results in an ERA of 4.50 if carried out over a season. I do not view that as "quality"; maybe you do. I think ERA, ERA+, WHIP, K/BB etc are MUCH better measures of a pitcher's performance.

     

     

     



    There's a place for all of them.  The problem with composite numbers is they doesn't account for outliers.  If a guy pitches 25 perfect games with 27 Ks in each game but gets totally shelled in his other 8 starts all his composits won't look particularly great but he'll have had the greatest season in history.

     



    The fact of the matter is that your scenario never happens. Generally a pitcher with a good ERA will win more games than he loses, and WHIP, ERA, ERA+, K/BB generally are correlated with good pitchers. I agree with you that no one stat tells the whole story, but the example you gave is unrealistic.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

     

     



    There's a place for all of them.  The problem with composite numbers is they doesn't account for outliers.  If a guy pitches 25 perfect games with 27 Ks in each game but gets totally shelled in his other 8 starts all his composits won't look particularly great but he'll have had the greatest season in history.

     

     

     



    The fact of the matter is that your scenario never happens. Generally a pitcher with a good ERA will win more games than he loses, and WHIP, ERA, ERA+, K/BB generally are correlated with good pitchers. I agree with you that no one stat tells the whole story, but the example you gave is unrealistic.

     

     

     



    I know it's unrealistic, I was just extending the logic.  You do see the point?  That if a pitcher has a large number of "good" starts, however you choose to define "good", if a small number of "bad" starts spoils his overall stats he can still be a valuable, high performer.  

     

    That is the point of the QS.  You have many, many times challenged the inclusion of 6 IP / 3 ER so please, please don't do it again.  Remember that 1) it is the end of the spectrum so it's illogical to use it to invalidate the entire stat, and 2) for a decent hitting team with a strong bullpen (like the Sox) having given up 3 ER after 6 IP is not that bad and, again, it's the worst possible QS.

    It would be interesting to see teams' records when their SP has given up exactly 6 IP / 3 ER....anyone know how to easily find that?

     
  23. This post has been removed.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    average runs scored per team is ~4.31 per game. If a starter gets the minimum requirement for a QS it means he's pitched at least 2 thirds of the game and let up 3 ER or less or an ERA of 4.5 (only 2 tenths worse than league average)

    So if the average team scores 4.31 runs per game you'd expect your starter to keep pace with that number at least. two thirds of 4.31 is 2.87. A starter who lets up 3 runs through 6 innings is only 0.13 runs behind the pace.

    and like sonics said, that's only the minimum requirement. At it's worst, a QS by definition, is keeping your team in the game.

    Some say a storm is coming, Some say the end is near.

    Some think it's all so hazy, I think it's all so clear.

    Some say they have the answers, some say they know the truth.

    Some people live in question, some people have no clue.

    If there was no tomorrow, if there was just today.

    would you make different choices? or would you stay the same?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester on pace for 15 wins

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    The "bare minimum" results in an ERA of 4.50 if carried out over a season. I do not view that as "quality"; maybe you do. I think ERA, ERA+, WHIP, K/BB etc are MUCH better measures of a pitcher's performance.



    Ironically, I was using the Quality Start stat to bolster the argument that Lester did in fact have a long rough stretch from Sept/11 to June/13, because of his low QS %.  So it was actually supporting your position, not opposing it. 

     

     

     

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