Lester; Opening Day Starter!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter! : If the best pitcher on the team had an era of 3.47 last season, then the team is in trouble.
    Posted by DirtyWaterLover[/QUOTE]

    ERA is not the most reliable stat, but a 3.47 for a Red Sox starter will always be very good.  When Beckett had his career year in 2007 his ERA was 3.27.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter! : If the best pitcher on the team had an era of 3.47 last season, then the team is in trouble.
    Posted by DirtyWaterLover[/QUOTE]

    Chris Carpenter had 3.45 ERA in 2011.. Do you have anything more to say? You keep saying all these nonsense without backing it up...
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    ^^^ I was going to mention Felix Hernandez who was 3.47 last year.  Granted, with 40 more IP and 5 CGs.  

    Either way, Lester is a stud and as reliable as anyone.  His average for last four seasons (all his complete years):
    202 IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .238 BAA

    These are damn good stats in the ALE and what is really amazing is that he hasn't deviated significantly from any of these stats in any of those four years.

    For comparison, here are Sabathia's averages for his three years in the ALE:
    235 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .241 BAA
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from beavis. Show beavis's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    This will line Beckett up to Opening Day @ Fenway 2pm vs Rays Friday 13th . Sweet, I think I'll celerbrate with some chicken with Boggs and cold Bud with Lackey...ok, I know its old...

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]^^^ I was going to mention Felix Hernandez who was 3.47 last year.  Granted, with 40 more IP and 5 CGs.   Either way, Lester is a stud and as reliable as anyone.  His average for last four seasons (all his complete years): 202 IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .238 BAA These are damn good stats in the ALE and what is really amazing is that he hasn't deviated significantly from any of these stats in any of those four years. For comparison, here are Sabathia's averages for his three years in the ALE: 235 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .241 BAA
    Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE]

    Yes... well.. King Felix is a different story.  His team sucked last year as always...
    It's VERY respectable numbers to have as your ERA in ALE and especially for Boston Red Sox player who plays alot at Fenway park.  That dirtywater guy only sees ERA and he thinks ERA is the only measurement for a great pitcher.  To add on Lester's great accomplishments so far, Lester never lost more than 9 games in a single season in his entire career.  In other words, technically speaking, Sox will have about GOOD 25 chances to win out of Lester every year.  That's not what people typically expect from your 3rd best pitcher on your team right? Nothing against you 111 thou.  I'm just frustrated by dirtywater guy...  
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    I'll be happy w a 3.47 ERA for Lester this year.

    If Lester and Beckett both stay healthy and each have ERA's around 3.5, we should be good.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter! : Chris Carpenter had 3.45 ERA in 2011.. Do you have anything more to say? You keep saying all these nonsense without backing it up...
    Posted by seannybboi[/QUOTE]

    Lester is the perfect example of stats not telling the whole story.

    Last September, Lester started 6 games.  The Sox won only 1 - a 14-0 sleeper.  When the season was on the line, Lester turtled.  The guy some think is the best pitcher on the team disappeared when the team desperately needed a stop.

    His era for the season 3.47, slightly below Buch era of 3.48.  But Buch was pitching with a bad back.  I'll take a healthy Beckett or a healthy Buch over a healthy Lester any time. 

    Last year Lester's era ranged from 1.56 for the month of July to over 5.00 for September and May.  Yes, Lester can be outstanding.  But he can also be really bad.

    Who would be surprised is Lester had an era on 1.5 or 5.1 for the month of April?

    Sorry, but in my opinion, to be considered a top pitcher, you need consistency and you need the be relied upon to come up with a great performance when the season is on the line.

    I'm not a betting man, but if I was, I would never pick Lester to win a game following a Sox loss and if he's following 2 or more losses, I'd bet on the other team.





     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter! : Lester is the perfect example of stats not telling the whole story. Last September, Lester started 6 games.  The Sox won only 1 - a 14-0 sleeper.  When the season was on the line, Lester turtled.  The guy some think is the best pitcher on the team disappeared when the team desperately needed a stop.
    Posted by DirtyWaterLover[/QUOTE]

    Beckett pitched poorly his last two starts, so he 'turtled' and 'disappeared' too.  Are you overlooking that?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    Don't get me wrong, I like Buch.  He's got great stuff and I hope to see more of him this year.  But you can't say Lester is inconsistent and then say Buch is better.  Buch's entire career is only two seasons worth of pitching at this point ... and his career stats aren't better than Lester's either.  Here are Lester's last four years which are very consistent:
    IP ERA WHIP BAA
    210 3.21 1.27 .256
    203 3.41 1.23 .242
    208 3.25 1.20 .220
    192 3.47 1.26 .234

    For more fun with SSS, Buch's career ERA in July is ~5.3.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    I like Lester as the opening day starter, he needs to be the workhorse of the staff.

    For a game 7 though, give me Beckett.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]Don't get me wrong, I like Buch.  He's got great stuff and I hope to see more of him this year.  But you can't say Lester is inconsistent and then say Buch is better.  Buch's entire career is only two seasons worth of pitching at this point ... and his career stats aren't better than Lester's either.  Here are Lester's last four years which are very consistent: IP ERA WHIP BAA 210 3.21 1.27 .256 203 3.41 1.23 .242 2 08 3.25 1.20 .220 192 3.47 1.26 .234 For more fun with SSS, Buch's career ERA in July is ~5.3.
    Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE]

    2008 was a rough year for him.  But he's settled down.

    The big question mark on buch is his staying paower.  He's thin guy.  Who knows if he's built to last.  Lester's proven himself as being a horse - but Lester's issue is his head not his arm.

    I never said Lester was a bad pitcher.  Being 3rd on a team with Beckett and Buch is nothing to sneeze at.  But Lester is not an ace of a staff.  He is not someone who can be relied upon to get a win when one is needed.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter! : Beckett pitched poorly his last two starts, so he 'turtled' and 'disappeared' too.  Are you overlooking that?
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    2 starts vs 5?  Beckett was coming off a sprained ankle.  Lester was supposedly healthy.

    On 9/24, in a must win situation against the Yankees, Lester gives up 8 runs in 2.2 innings.  That's your stud????  2 weeks earlier, he can't go more than 4 innings against the Rays.  You have your stud in 4 games against the Yanks and Rays last September and the Sox get 0 wins (granted, he should have gotten 1 win).  You have the guy you think is the best starter on the team, and the Sox can't get 1 win.  In 1 game he goes less than 3 innings and in another game, he goes only 4.  That's your stud.  Oh, and in the critical month of September, Lester's era was 5.4 and that includes his outatanding performance against Toronto, whom the Sox beat 14-0.  His best performance was in a walk over.

    And if you take out that 14-0 performance, his ERA for September was 6.94

    If healthy, it's Beckett, Buch, and Lester.  Lester is perfect when the team is on a roll, but he is not the guy I want to see on the mound when the team needs a win.

    You have a very good rotation if lester is your #3 guy, but you got problems if he's your #2 and you got real problems is he's the ace of the squad. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter! : 2 starts vs 5?  Beckett was coming off a sprained ankle.  Lester was supposedly healthy. On 9/24, in a must win situation against the Yankees, Lester gives up 8 runs in 2.2 innings.  That's your stud????  2 weeks earlier, he can't go more than 4 innings against the Rays.  You have your stud in 4 games against the Yanks and Rays last September and the Sox get 0 wins (granted, he should have gotten 1 win).  You have the guy you think is the best starter on the team, and the Sox can't get 1 win.  In 1 game he goes less than 3 innings and in another game, he goes only 4.  That's your stud.  Oh, and in the critical month of September, Lester's era was 5.4 and that includes his outatanding performance against Toronto, whom the Sox beat 14-0.  His best performance was in a walk over. And if you take out that 14-0 performance, his ERA for September was 6.94 If healthy, it's Beckett, Buch, and Lester.  Lester is perfect when the team is on a roll, but he is not the guy I want to see on the mound when the team needs a win. You have a very good rotation if lester is your #3 guy, but you got problems if he's your #2 and you got real problems is he's the ace of the squad. 
    Posted by DirtyWaterLover[/QUOTE]

    Look, Lester had a bad month in September, no argument.  But Beckett shouldn't be getting a free pass because of the ankle sprain.  He pitched a good game against the Rays his first game back Sept. 16, then he gave up 12 runs in 2 critical games against the Birds.

    None of these guys are perfect-Lester, Beckett or Buchholz.  They're all very good pitchers who have bad games. 
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter! : Look, Lester had a bad month in September, no argument.  But Beckett shouldn't be getting a free pass because of the ankle sprain.  He pitched a good game against the Rays his first game back Sept. 16, then he gave up 12 runs in 2 critical games against the Birds. None of these guys are perfect-Lester, Beckett or Buchholz.  They're all very good pitchers who have bad games. 
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]
    Good point. Beckett himself said that the ankle had nothing to do with his "not pitching good" in those two starts.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter! : Look, Lester had a bad month in September, no argument.  But Beckett shouldn't be getting a free pass because of the ankle sprain.  He pitched a good game against the Rays his first game back Sept. 16, then he gave up 12 runs in 2 critical games against the Birds. None of these guys are perfect-Lester, Beckett or Buchholz.  They're all very good pitchers who have bad games. 
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    The only person who seems to be getting a pass is Lester.  Lester didn't have a bad September, it was absolutely horrendous. 

    Beckett says that his ankle wasn't bothering him.  Ok, he doesn't want to make excuses.  But all I know is before he sprains his ankle, he's a Cy Young candidate.

    I'm not saying that Lester doesn't have talent.  He has tremendous ability.  I'm saying that he's not a #1 and probably not a #2 because he's not a stopper.

    Lester has a run were he gives up 4 ER in 5 starts, averaging 6 innings per game.  That's outstanding. No one could ask for more.

    Then he has run where he gives up 18 ER in 4 starts, averaging 5 innings per start.  3 of those 4 games are against the Yanks and TB, your competition for a play off spot. 

    He pitches a game against the yanks after a rain out.  The next day the Sox got to play a double header.  They just lost 5 of their last 6.  They need a strong start for Lester.  A win would be great, losing a close game would show that the team has some fight left in them, and at the very least, he needs to go deep into the game.  What does he do?  He goes 2.2 innings, wearing out the BP the day before a DH.  An absolutely terrible performance.  They have 3 games in 2 days and lester starts them off with a real stinker.

    Lester's not a money performer.  When the team is going well, he's awesome.  But when the team is struggling, he struggles.  That's not what a #1 does.  A #1 comes up with his best games when the team is in a losing streak.  Lester doesn't do that.  I'm not saying he's terrible.  I'm just saying he's not a #1.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    Your comments about Lester contradict YOUR excuse for Beckett. Lester was having a good year but tanked in September. He was healthy. Beckett was having a great year but tanked in September. He says he was healthy. He is the primary and the only reliable witness in the case. 
    Neither pitcher had an excuse. Neither claimed one. They both hit slumps at the worst time. It has happened to better pitchers than they. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In the end, big game pitchers, pitch big, in big games. To that end, Lester has yet to have a dominant post season and his September struggles last year certainly didn't help his creditails. In my mind he one of the best in the game and has been for the last four years. However he has yet to take the next step and make the case that he's the best...Beckett's last dominant season in totale was in 2007, building off his dominant performance in 2003 with the Marlins. He established himself as a big game pitcher. However, in his case, he's failed to finish strong the last 4 years do to a myriad of nagging injuires...Buchholz has had 1 good year. Coming of his lost season of 2011 with a back injury, it's pointless to even add his name into the discussion as the best on our staff.

    Both Lester and Beckett are among the best in the game alibiet when healthy. Neither of them are in the class of guys like Halladay and dare I say CC Sabathia. Who both consistently go out and give thier team 230 IP with a sub 3.5 era. Lester's been knocking on the door for 3 years, I'd say that 2012 is the year that he proves to all that his name belongs in the conversation. As is he's he's pretty good and I'd take any of his last 4 seasons numbers in 2012. So to me the question is not whether he's the best on our staff, the question that remains to be answered is Jon Lester the best pitcher in the AL...to date the answer is no. In fact he might not even crack the top 10.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    Lester has a postseason ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 1.12.  Verlander's numbers are 5.57 and 1.55.  Sabathia's are 4.81 and 1.62.  Using 'big game' or postseason numbers to compare starters just doesn't work.  Probably the most objective measure is WAR over the last 3 or 4 seasons.
     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!

    In Response to Re: Lester; Opening Day Starter!:
    [QUOTE]Lester has a postseason ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 1.12.  Verlander's numbers are 5.57 and 1.55.  Sabathia's are 4.81 and 1.62.  Using 'big game' or postseason numbers to compare starters just doesn't work.  Probably the most objective measure is WAR over the last 3 or 4 seasons.
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    Hfx,
    I wasn't implying that Lester struggles in the post season. Only that he's yet to have a defining run where he "leads" his team to a championship see Beckett in 2007, and Chris Carpenter last year. My opin is that he once was considered to have the stuff to be amoung the best in the game and has yet to take that step. He's still pretty darn good but today is not in the conversation of the best. In fact, he's now considered in the class of guys like Andy Petitte in his prime. "A solid top of the rotation starter"...
     
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