Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying "I want to stay in Boston!"

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    Homer Bailey signs an extension with the REDS, weakening the 2015 FA pitching class by one more guy.  If we were to let Lester walk the other top pitchers on the market are Scherzer, Masterson, and Shields. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As everyone knows (well some people) Fangrapsh takes a players WAR and weighs it with the FREE agent dollars spent relative a free agents WAR.  In other words, it is an indicator of what a player is worth in free agency.

    according to Fangraphs Jon Lesters value per year the last 6 years:

     

    22.7 million

    27.7 million

    21.4 million

    15.7 million

    14.2 million

    21.4 million.

    Even during a "down year" Lester is at least a 15 million dollar a year pitcher.  

    He has averaged a WAR of 3.675 per year, and that is averaging in his first two years as a part time pitcher when he posted a WAR of 1.3, .5

    A pitcher is getting about 5 million per WAR this year, and that number has steadily risen over the years.  So I think it would be fair enough to say that he is worth more than 15 million a year.  A weighted average of his seasons says he is worth about 18.375 million a year. If you take out his first two seasons where bounced back from triple A to the big leagues he becomes a 23/m a year pitcher. 

    I'm not saying he is going to get 23 million a year, but he has also said that "I don't want to set the market back" to me that means a hometown discount comes either in lower AAV for a lot of years or fair value for less years. 

    I think 126 million over 7 years is a fair deal.  It pays him slightly below his market value today, and will likely pay him what he is worth when his production goes down and you factor in player salary inflation. 

    [/QUOTE]

    23 million a year? How in those numbers are you getting 23 million a year? Over his last 6 I get 20.5 million. Over the last 5 I get 20.1 million. Over his last 3 I get 17.1 million.

    Also, Fangraphs WAR is his best comprehensive stat out there. His Baseball refference WAR is lower, especially over the last 6 seasons[27.5 vs. 25.5] and last 2 seasons[7.5 vs. 3.7]. And his FIP and ERA type stats are much lower then either.

    Finally, once a player gets to the age of 30, a drop in performance is expected every year. You mention this, but just guess at the result. Many use a 0.5 drop every year.  Its pretty significant over a 7-8 year span.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    To give you an idea of current starting pitcher contracts, here are the lists.....


    1 Clayton Kershaw at $215,000,000 
    2 C.C. Sabathia at $186,000,000 
    3 Justin Verlander at $180,000,000 
    4 Felix Hernandez at $175,000,000 
    5 Masahiro Tanaka at $155,000,000 
    6 Zack Greinke at $147,000,000 
    7 Cole Hamels at $144,000,000 
    8 Matt Cain at $127,500,000 
    9 Cliff Lee at $120,000,000
    10 Homer Bailey $105,000,000
    11 Adam Wainwright at $97,500,000 
    12 Jered Weaver at $85,000,000 
    13 John Lackey at $82,500,000 
    14 Anibal Sanchez at $80,000,000 
    15 C.J. Wilson at $77,500,000 
    16 Josh Beckett at $68,000,000 


    1 Clayton Kershaw at $30,714,286 
    2 Justin Verlander at $25,714,286 
    3 Matt Cain at $25,500,000 
    4 Felix Hernandez at $25,000,000 
    5 Zack Greinke at $24,500,000 
    6 Cliff Lee at $24,000,000 
    7 Cole Hamels at $24,000,000 
    8 C.C. Sabathia at $23,250,000 
    9 Masahiro Tanaka at $22,142,857 
    10 Adam Wainwright at $19,500,000
    11 Homer Bailey at 17,500,000 
    12 Tim Lincecum at $17,500,000 
    13 Josh Beckett at $17,000,000 
    14 Jered Weaver at $17,000,000 
    15 John Lackey at $16,500,000 
    16 Anibal Sanchez at $16,000,000

     

    Only Lackey, Wainright and Lee were older when they became free agents. Also, about half of those players were free agents at the time, increasing their bargaining power. I don't see how commiting 5-85 at 17 million a year to Lester is any kind of insult.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    To give you an idea of current starting pitcher contracts, here are the lists.....


    1 Clayton Kershaw at $215,000,000 
    2 C.C. Sabathia at $186,000,000 
    3 Justin Verlander at $180,000,000 
    4 Felix Hernandez at $175,000,000 
    5 Masahiro Tanaka at $155,000,000 
    6 Zack Greinke at $147,000,000 
    7 Cole Hamels at $144,000,000 
    8 Matt Cain at $127,500,000 
    9 Cliff Lee at $120,000,000
    10 Homer Bailey $105,000,000
    11 Adam Wainwright at $97,500,000 
    12 Jered Weaver at $85,000,000 
    13 John Lackey at $82,500,000 
    14 Anibal Sanchez at $80,000,000 
    15 C.J. Wilson at $77,500,000 
    16 Josh Beckett at $68,000,000 


    1 Clayton Kershaw at $30,714,286 
    2 Justin Verlander at $25,714,286 
    3 Matt Cain at $25,500,000 
    4 Felix Hernandez at $25,000,000 
    5 Zack Greinke at $24,500,000 
    6 Cliff Lee at $24,000,000 
    7 Cole Hamels at $24,000,000 
    8 C.C. Sabathia at $23,250,000 
    9 Masahiro Tanaka at $22,142,857 
    10 Adam Wainwright at $19,500,000
    11 Homer Bailey at 17,500,000 
    12 Tim Lincecum at $17,500,000 
    13 Josh Beckett at $17,000,000 
    14 Jered Weaver at $17,000,000 
    15 John Lackey at $16,500,000 
    16 Anibal Sanchez at $16,000,000

     

    Only Lackey, Wainright and Lee were older when they became free agents. Also, about half of those players were free agents at the time, increasing their bargaining power. I don't see how commiting 5-85 at 17 million a year to Lester is any kind of insult.

     



    I believe it was your offer of 4/72 that some people agreed that was an insult, not 5/85.  You keep trying to make a case by manipulating stats to support your argument, but 2 things:

    1. Lester's next contract won't be based on "regular season stats" only, and the Red Sox Front Office isn't going to grossly manipulate them as you have to make their argument.  It's not an arbitration hearing.

    2. You keep mentioning his age, which is a factor, but he is in excellent shape and has a pretty flawless delivery that should allow him to pitch at a high level until at least his mid-thirties.  5 years at an average of 20 per with some type of an option or 2 is very reasonable, and less than what he would get on the free agent market.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As everyone knows (well some people) Fangrapsh takes a players WAR and weighs it with the FREE agent dollars spent relative a free agents WAR.  In other words, it is an indicator of what a player is worth in free agency.

    according to Fangraphs Jon Lesters value per year the last 6 years:

     

    22.7 million

    27.7 million

    21.4 million

    15.7 million

    14.2 million

    21.4 million.

    Even during a "down year" Lester is at least a 15 million dollar a year pitcher.  

    He has averaged a WAR of 3.675 per year, and that is averaging in his first two years as a part time pitcher when he posted a WAR of 1.3, .5

    A pitcher is getting about 5 million per WAR this year, and that number has steadily risen over the years.  So I think it would be fair enough to say that he is worth more than 15 million a year.  A weighted average of his seasons says he is worth about 18.375 million a year. If you take out his first two seasons where bounced back from triple A to the big leagues he becomes a 23/m a year pitcher. 

    I'm not saying he is going to get 23 million a year, but he has also said that "I don't want to set the market back" to me that means a hometown discount comes either in lower AAV for a lot of years or fair value for less years. 

    I think 126 million over 7 years is a fair deal.  It pays him slightly below his market value today, and will likely pay him what he is worth when his production goes down and you factor in player salary inflation. 

    [/QUOTE]

    23 million a year? How in those numbers are you getting 23 million a year? Over his last 6 I get 20.5 million. Over the last 5 I get 20.1 million. Over his last 3 I get 17.1 million.

    Also, Fangraphs WAR is his best comprehensive stat out there. His Baseball refference WAR is lower, especially over the last 6 seasons[27.5 vs. 25.5] and last 2 seasons[7.5 vs. 3.7]. And his FIP and ERA type stats are much lower then either.

    Finally, once a player gets to the age of 30, a drop in performance is expected every year. You mention this, but just guess at the result. Many use a 0.5 drop every year.  Its pretty significant over a 7-8 year span.

    [/QUOTE]


    When looking at Fangraphs WAR here it doesn't matter whether it is higher or lower because the same formula is used for all players. If it is higher for Lester it is higher for all pitchers.  So effectively that has no issue on the fact that is used as  comperative tool to predict free agent deals based on recent deals with similiar WARs.

    Yes players drop in production...but also the amount of money spent per WAR also increases every single year.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    To give you an idea of current starting pitcher contracts, here are the lists.....


    1 Clayton Kershaw at $215,000,000 
    2 C.C. Sabathia at $186,000,000 
    3 Justin Verlander at $180,000,000 
    4 Felix Hernandez at $175,000,000 
    5 Masahiro Tanaka at $155,000,000 
    6 Zack Greinke at $147,000,000 
    7 Cole Hamels at $144,000,000 
    8 Matt Cain at $127,500,000 
    9 Cliff Lee at $120,000,000
    10 Homer Bailey $105,000,000
    11 Adam Wainwright at $97,500,000 
    12 Jered Weaver at $85,000,000 
    13 John Lackey at $82,500,000 
    14 Anibal Sanchez at $80,000,000 
    15 C.J. Wilson at $77,500,000 
    16 Josh Beckett at $68,000,000 


    1 Clayton Kershaw at $30,714,286 
    2 Justin Verlander at $25,714,286 
    3 Matt Cain at $25,500,000 
    4 Felix Hernandez at $25,000,000 
    5 Zack Greinke at $24,500,000 
    6 Cliff Lee at $24,000,000 
    7 Cole Hamels at $24,000,000 
    8 C.C. Sabathia at $23,250,000 
    9 Masahiro Tanaka at $22,142,857 
    10 Adam Wainwright at $19,500,000
    11 Homer Bailey at 17,500,000 
    12 Tim Lincecum at $17,500,000 
    13 Josh Beckett at $17,000,000 
    14 Jered Weaver at $17,000,000 
    15 John Lackey at $16,500,000 
    16 Anibal Sanchez at $16,000,000

     

    Only Lackey, Wainright and Lee were older when they became free agents. Also, about half of those players were free agents at the time, increasing their bargaining power. I don't see how commiting 5-85 at 17 million a year to Lester is any kind of insult.

     



    I believe it was your offer of 4/72 that some people agreed that was an insult, not 5/85.  You keep trying to make a case by manipulating stats to support your argument, but 2 things:

    1. Lester's next contract won't be based on "regular season stats" only, and the Red Sox Front Office isn't going to grossly manipulate them as you have to make their argument.  It's not an arbitration hearing.

    2. You keep mentioning his age, which is a factor, but he is in excellent shape and has a pretty flawless delivery that should allow him to pitch at a high level until at least his mid-thirties.  5 years at an average of 20 per with some type of an option or 2 is very reasonable, and less than what he would get on the free agent market.

    [/QUOTE]

    He is signed for 2014 at 1-13. Add that to the 4-72 extension and you get a 5-85 guaranteed commitment from the Red Sox, which is what I said.

    And you can shove your word manipulatin up your rear.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As everyone knows (well some people) Fangrapsh takes a players WAR and weighs it with the FREE agent dollars spent relative a free agents WAR.  In other words, it is an indicator of what a player is worth in free agency.

    according to Fangraphs Jon Lesters value per year the last 6 years:

     

    22.7 million

    27.7 million

    21.4 million

    15.7 million

    14.2 million

    21.4 million.

    Even during a "down year" Lester is at least a 15 million dollar a year pitcher.  

    He has averaged a WAR of 3.675 per year, and that is averaging in his first two years as a part time pitcher when he posted a WAR of 1.3, .5

    A pitcher is getting about 5 million per WAR this year, and that number has steadily risen over the years.  So I think it would be fair enough to say that he is worth more than 15 million a year.  A weighted average of his seasons says he is worth about 18.375 million a year. If you take out his first two seasons where bounced back from triple A to the big leagues he becomes a 23/m a year pitcher. 

    I'm not saying he is going to get 23 million a year, but he has also said that "I don't want to set the market back" to me that means a hometown discount comes either in lower AAV for a lot of years or fair value for less years. 

    I think 126 million over 7 years is a fair deal.  It pays him slightly below his market value today, and will likely pay him what he is worth when his production goes down and you factor in player salary inflation. 

    [/QUOTE]

    23 million a year? How in those numbers are you getting 23 million a year? Over his last 6 I get 20.5 million. Over the last 5 I get 20.1 million. Over his last 3 I get 17.1 million.

    Also, Fangraphs WAR is his best comprehensive stat out there. His Baseball refference WAR is lower, especially over the last 6 seasons[27.5 vs. 25.5] and last 2 seasons[7.5 vs. 3.7]. And his FIP and ERA type stats are much lower then either.

    Finally, once a player gets to the age of 30, a drop in performance is expected every year. You mention this, but just guess at the result. Many use a 0.5 drop every year.  Its pretty significant over a 7-8 year span.

    [/QUOTE]


    When looking at Fangraphs WAR here it doesn't matter whether it is higher or lower because the same formula is used for all players. If it is higher for Lester it is higher for all pitchers.  So effectively that has no issue on the fact that is used as  comperative tool to predict free agent deals based on recent deals with similiar WARs.

    Yes players drop in production...but also the amount of money spent per WAR also increases every single year.

    [/QUOTE]

    Its not uniformly lower for all pitchers. Some have higher Fangraph WARS then Baseball refference. And some have higher Baseball Refference WARS then Fangraphs. So it does make a difference.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    Yes according to ONE metric he has a lower WAR, but baseball reference does nothing to predict his Salary,  so you conviently use a metric that fits your narrative then use a subjective number that is lower than what EVERYONE in the baseball world is suggesting??

    FWIW according to baseball reference Lester has the 9th highest WAR of all starting pitchers over the last 6 years.

    If you thnk Lester is getting around 18 million a year (and I happen to think he can be had for 18 million a year) you can bet it's NEVER going to be for only 4 years. You give something to get something....just like Lester said "I'm not going to set the market back"  He is either going to give the Sox market value for less years or give them a below market deal but expect the Sox to give him more years....which is what I'm thinking seeing how he has stated he would sign a "pedroia like deal"

    And I seriously doubt he signs an extension that doesn't start until after this year.

    I say he signs for 7/120

    you say he will sign for 4/72 5/85

    I would be willing to bet I come closer.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from cassvt2004. Show cassvt2004's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    Offfer 6/yr $119 mil contract

    2015 20m

    2016 21m

    2017 21m

    2018 20m

    2019 19m

    2020 18m

    Then offer performance incentives for 200IP, top 3 in Cy Young finishes, as well as ALCS and World Series MVP bonuses.....Fair for Lester when considering the market, and fair for the team as to not handcuff them in the future when he is in his mid-thirties...

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Yes according to ONE metric he has a lower WAR, but baseball reference does nothing to predict his Salary,  so you conviently use a metric that fits your narrative then use a subjective number that is lower than what EVERYONE in the baseball world is suggesting??

    FWIW according to baseball reference Lester has the 9th highest WAR of all starting pitchers over the last 6 years.

    If you thnk Lester is getting around 18 million a year (and I happen to think he can be had for 18 million a year) you can bet it's NEVER going to be for only 4 years. You give something to get something....just like Lester said "I'm not going to set the market back"  He is either going to give the Sox market value for less years or give them a below market deal but expect the Sox to give him more years....which is what I'm thinking seeing how he has stated he would sign a "pedroia like deal"

    And I seriously doubt he signs an extension that doesn't start until after this year.

    I say he signs for 7/120

    you say he will sign for 4/72 5/85

    I would be willing to bet I come closer.

    [/QUOTE]

    Do you really think the Red Sox are going to gaurantee Lester for the next 8 years? A team famous for believing in short term deals?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Yes according to ONE metric he has a lower WAR, but baseball reference does nothing to predict his Salary,  so you conviently use a metric that fits your narrative then use a subjective number that is lower than what EVERYONE in the baseball world is suggesting??

    FWIW according to baseball reference Lester has the 9th highest WAR of all starting pitchers over the last 6 years.

    If you thnk Lester is getting around 18 million a year (and I happen to think he can be had for 18 million a year) you can bet it's NEVER going to be for only 4 years. You give something to get something....just like Lester said "I'm not going to set the market back"  He is either going to give the Sox market value for less years or give them a below market deal but expect the Sox to give him more years....which is what I'm thinking seeing how he has stated he would sign a "pedroia like deal"

    And I seriously doubt he signs an extension that doesn't start until after this year.

    I say he signs for 7/120

    you say he will sign for 4/72 5/85

    I would be willing to bet I come closer.

    [/QUOTE]

    Do you really think the Red Sox are going to gaurantee Lester for the next 8 years? A team famous for believing in short term deals?

    [/QUOTE]


    Crazy huh??? just as crazy as suggesting he will sign for far below market value???

    How many years did they just sign Pedroia for???

    that blows that theory out of the water.

    The Red Sox have shown time and time and time again that they will break there own rules.  I love how they don't sign longer term contracts, but I think it fits their philosophy to do just that when a player will give them a lower AAV

    We can argue all day on Lesters value, but no one can deny that pitchers are getting big pay days in free agency, and very few resumes match  what Lester has done over the last 6 years.  there is no way you are getting him for 17-18 million a year unless you extend the years.  That is just not happening...Going back now and looking at the Fangraphs model...they seem to be pretty accurate on most guys.  Actually Garza just got MORE than what Fangrapsh valued him at the last couple years and he has been injury plagued recently while Lester has been one of the most durable pitchers in the leauge. 

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    The hometown discount is a two-way street.  The player has to be willing to swallow however many million.  The club has to give respect to the player's value.  Hometown discount doesn't mean Jon Lester hasn't earned a long-term, handsome payday.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Yes according to ONE metric he has a lower WAR, but baseball reference does nothing to predict his Salary,  so you conviently use a metric that fits your narrative then use a subjective number that is lower than what EVERYONE in the baseball world is suggesting??

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I conviently will use every and any stat out there. You can to btw. They are all allowed to be used aren't they? There is nothing I see wrong with bringing bWAR  up. And its almost every stat out there that he is lower in then FWAR, not just bWAR. And I am well aware most people are saying he is going to get more money then I am. So what, bet nobody thought Pedroia would sign for what he did either. All the contract offers people are giving are subjective aren't they? Mine might be the least subjective, its based mostly on formula's and stats.

    I guess I should expect people to be sensitive in defending Lester.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Yes according to ONE metric he has a lower WAR, but baseball reference does nothing to predict his Salary,  so you conviently use a metric that fits your narrative then use a subjective number that is lower than what EVERYONE in the baseball world is suggesting??

     



    I conviently will use every and any stat out there. You can to btw. They are all allowed to be used aren't they? There is nothing I see wrong with bringing bWAR  up. And its almost every stat out there that he is lower in then FWAR, not just bWAR. And I am well aware most people are saying he is going to get more money then I am. So what, bet nobody thought Pedroia would sign for what he did either. All the contract offers people are giving are subjective aren't they? Mine might be the least subjective, its based mostly on formula's and stats.

    I guess I should expect people to be sensitive in defending Lester.

    [/QUOTE]

    what formula and stats are you using that is placing a lower value on Lester than everyone??? because if there is a large amount of people out there who don't think like you then that is alllllll it takes to drive his cost up in the free market.

    I'm not "being sensitive" nor am I defending Lester, I'm just telling you that you are low balling him.  It's as simple as that.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    FWIW, I hope I'm wrong and you're right...I'd love to have Lester here for 5 years @ 17 million per year.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Going back now and looking at the Fangraphs model...they seem to be pretty accurate on most guys. 

     

     



    I bellieve the Fangraphs model uses only the last 3 seasons. I think they weight it on a 3-2-1 scale. And I think they reduce the numbers by 0.5 after the age of 30. If we use only the FWAR numbers it would go something like this........

     

     

    2011-3.5

    2012-3.2 + 3.2=6.4

    2013-4.3 + 4.3 + 4.3-12.9

    Added up thats 22.8. You then divide by 6 to get the average weighted WAR the last 3 seasons.....of 3.8 FWAR.

    You then subtract 0.5 every year over the age of 30. Since we don't even begin counting until his 2015 season since he is already under contract for 2014, its definately going to be no higher then 3.3 to start. Then multiply by 6.3 million for the first year at 5% increase in the muliplier.......

     

    2015-3.3 x 6.3=20.79

    2016-2.8 x 6.62=18.54

    2017-2.3 x 6.95=15.99

    2018-1.8 x 7.3=13.14

    Total-4-68.46 More then 3.5 million LESS then I am saying.

     

    Now lets do your 7 year possibilty.....

    2015-3.3 x 6.3=20.79

    2016-2.8 x 6.62=18.54

    2017-2.3 x 6.95=15.99

    2018-1.8 x 7.3=13.14

    2019-1.3 x 7.67=9.97

    2020-0.8 x  8.05=6.44

    2021-0.3 x  8.45=2.54

     

    According to Fangraphs formula you mentioned its 7-87.4 million dollars.

     

     

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Going back now and looking at the Fangraphs model...they seem to be pretty accurate on most guys. 

     



    I bellieve the Fangraphs model uses only the last 3 seasons. I think they weight it on a 3-2-1 scale. And I think they reduce the numbers by 0.5 after the age of 30. If we use only the FWAR numbers it would go something like this........

     

    2011-3.5

    2012-3.2 + 3.2=6.4

    2013-4.3 + 4.3 + 4.3-12.9

    Added up thats 22.8. You then divide by 6 to get the average weighted WAR the last 3 seasons.....of 3.8 FWAR.

    You then subtract 0.5 every year over the age of 30. Since we don't even begin counting until his 2015 season since he is already under contract for 2014, its definately going to be no higher then 3.3 to start. Then multiply by 6.32 million for the first year at 5% increase in the muliplier.......

     

    2015-3.3 x 6.3=20.79

    2016-2.8 x 6.62=18.54

    2017-2.3 x 6.95=15.99

    2018-1.8 x 7.3=13.14

    Total-4-68.46 More then 3.5 million LESS the n I am saying.

     

    Now lests do your 7 year possibilty.....

    2015-3.3 x 6.3=20.79

    2016-2.8 x 6.62=18.54

    2017-2.3 x 6.95=15.99

    2018-1.8 x 7.3=13.14

    2019-1.3 x 7.67=9.97

    2020-0.8 x  8.05=6.44

    2021-0.3 x  8.45=2.54

     

    According to Fangraphs formula you mentioned its 7-87.4 million dollars.

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My only problem with that is .5 regression is an average...most players don't steadily decline by .5.  It's not a nice linear straight decline.

    He could actually pitch better the next 3 years than he did the last 3, then perhaps in year 4 his WAR declines by 2.0 and perhaps holds steady for the next 4-5 years.  We really don't know.  A lot of players put up similiar production in their 30's then fall off a cliff there last couple years....that could all average out to decline of .5 or point whatever but that doesn't tell the whole story.

    What I do know is that Lester has one of the best track records of durability in the league, that is going to mean something in free agency, as will his track record in the playoffs.

    Also it seems that in recent years player inflation has actually increased.  This makes sense with all the new money coming into baseball, the cost per WAR will rise as well. 

    In 6 years from now Lester might only be a 2.0 WAR pitcher, but today 1 WAR cost about 5 million...it could cost 6-8 by 2020. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    FWIW, I hope I'm wrong and you're right...I'd love to have Lester here for 5 years @ 17 million per year.

    [/QUOTE]


    Me too, but we know that's not going to happen. All you have to do is look at Lackey's contract. If he signed 5 for $82.5M, then you know that Lester's total value starts at nine figures -- 5/$100M would be the starting point. Lester is younger and the market, with the new TV money, is different today.

    I can see the Sox trying not to go seven years on a pitcher. They certainly will have to go at least five and probably at least six. That's why I said 6/$125 -- larger average salary. If Lester holds firm for seven, then seven/$140M. It's simply where the market is, regardless of whether or not we think he's worth it.

    I'd be shocked if the total value of Lester's contract is less than $100M.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Going back now and looking at the Fangraphs model...they seem to be pretty accurate on most guys. 

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I bellieve the Fangraphs model uses only the last 3 seasons. I think they weight it on a 3-2-1 scale. And I think they reduce the numbers by 0.5 after the age of 30. If we use only the FWAR numbers it would go something like this........

     

     

    2011-3.5

    2012-3.2 + 3.2=6.4

    2013-4.3 + 4.3 + 4.3-12.9

    Added up thats 22.8. You then divide by 6 to get the average weighted WAR the last 3 seasons.....of 3.8 FWAR.

    You then subtract 0.5 every year over the age of 30. Since we don't even begin counting until his 2015 season since he is already under contract for 2014, its definately going to be no higher then 3.3 to start. Then multiply by 6.32 million for the first year at 5% increase in the muliplier.......

     

    2015-3.3 x 6.3=20.79

    2016-2.8 x 6.62=18.54

    2017-2.3 x 6.95=15.99

    2018-1.8 x 7.3=13.14

    Total-4-68.46 More then 3.5 million LESS the n I am saying.

     

    Now lests do your 7 year possibilty.....

    2015-3.3 x 6.3=20.79

    2016-2.8 x 6.62=18.54

    2017-2.3 x 6.95=15.99

    2018-1.8 x 7.3=13.14

    2019-1.3 x 7.67=9.97

    2020-0.8 x  8.05=6.44

    2021-0.3 x  8.45=2.54

     

    According to Fangraphs formula you mentioned its 7-87.4 million dollars.

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My only problem with that is .5 regression is an average...most players don't steadily decline by .5.  It's not a nice linear straight decline.

    He could actually pitch better the next 3 years than he did the last 3, then perhaps in year 4 his WAR declines by 2.0 and perhaps holds steady for the next 4-5 years.  We really don't know.  A lot of players put up similiar production in their 30's then fall off a cliff there last couple years....that could all average out to decline of .5 or point whatever but that doesn't tell the whole story.

    What I do know is that Lester has one of the best track records of durability in the league, that is going to mean something in free agency, as will his track record in the playoffs.

    Also it seems that in recent years player inflation has actually increased.  This makes sense with all the new money coming into baseball, the cost per WAR will rise as well. 

    In 6 years from now Lester might only be a 2.0 WAR pitcher, but today 1 WAR cost about 5 million...it could cost 6-8 by 2020. 

    [/QUOTE]

    So now you don't like the Fangraphs formula.:)

    BTW, I totally agree he has excellent intangibles that all increase his value. They are real and they are spectacular.

    However, the Red Sox have things in their favor too. The fact he isn't a free agent yet is huge. Pitchers not under contract yet are walking a tight rope. If he gets injured, that would kill his future. Also, he isn't a free agent yet so their is no competition. No bidding war. Then there is changing his environment.  Keeping friends, changing schools, buying new homes  etc. Some don't care, but he has already admitted he doesn't like change. Their is the plus of playing your whole career on one team. Probably even some finacial value in that. Long term endorsements and autographs, etc. Its history. I am sure Brooks Robinson and Cal Ripken are happy they never played even one season on another team. Then their is the big stage. Getting on TV. Filled stadium. And finally winning has value.

    Those things off set the intangibles, especially when he admits he is willing to give a discount.

    Sure, if he puts up an identical season this year and makes it to free agency, some desperate team might offer 5-110+ next year. But he will likely lose those positives about staying with the Red Sox. If he is a gambling man and wants the most money, that is what he should do.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Yes according to ONE metric he has a lower WAR, but baseball reference does nothing to predict his Salary,  so you conviently use a metric that fits your narrative then use a subjective number that is lower than what EVERYONE in the baseball world is suggesting??

    FWIW according to baseball reference Lester has the 9th highest WAR of all starting pitchers over the last 6 years.

    If you thnk Lester is getting around 18 million a year (and I happen to think he can be had for 18 million a year) you can bet it's NEVER going to be for only 4 years. You give something to get something....just like Lester said "I'm not going to set the market back"  He is either going to give the Sox market value for less years or give them a below market deal but expect the Sox to give him more years....which is what I'm thinking seeing how he has stated he would sign a "pedroia like deal"

    And I seriously doubt he signs an extension that doesn't start until after this year.

    I say he signs for 7/120

    you say he will sign for 4/72 5/85

    I would be willing to bet I come closer.

    [/QUOTE]

    Do you really think the Red Sox are going to gaurantee Lester for the next 8 years? A team famous for believing in short term deals?

    [/QUOTE]

    Guaranteeing Lester a deal longer than five years would be stupid IMO. More money ($18M per year or less), but no more than five years. Thats fair. There are other aging pitchers in baseball.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    Calm down!! 

    You guys are going completely overboard with the micro-analysis.

    I know you guys mean well, but let's let the cards fall where they may?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    2 things I noticed...

    BMav is too sensible, but has owned this thread.

    And, a recent WS title has made many fans r e t a r d e d and starry eyed.

    25 mil a year is the going rate? Someone is overstating both Lester's production and ability...oh, and discounting his age entirely.

    He's not as young, or good, as Kershaw.

    He hasn't been nearly as consistent as someone like Sabathia when he got paid.

    Oh, AND HE'S NOT A FA! Yet people want to pay him as such?

    Nevermind a salary structure. No, this will be awesome. Just pay Ortiz extra money, throw huge money at Lester, pay pay pay!

    Then what about Middlebrooks, Bradley, the laundry list of Ps, or BOEGARTS? Do you really want to destroy what Cherrington has been doing for 2-3 years, and go back to paying Beckett, Lackey, Crawford, Gonzalez, etc? I don't. I never even wanted to get there, and that drove me AWAY from this team. Look at the team just LAST YEAR and you should be able to see the flaws in that. If not...I guess I'm arguing with myself. I've not been shy with my opinion that Red Sox nation has largely turned into a fanbase of 'pink hats'. Yes, I used that term, and if you can actually remember Fenway without them, you probably understand what the term means, though I'm sure an argument will follow...as that term really offends some people.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to ma6dragon9's comment:

    Oh, AND HE'S NOT A FA! Yet people want to pay him as such?

    Nevermind a salary structure. No, this will be awesome. Just pay Ortiz extra money, throw huge money at Lester, pay pay pay!

    Then what about Middlebrooks, Bradley, the laundry list of Ps, or BOEGARTS? Do you really want to destroy what Cherrington has been doing for 2-3 years, and go back to paying Beckett, Lackey, Crawford, Gonzalez, etc? I don't. I never even wanted to get there, and that drove me AWAY from this team. Look at the team just LAST YEAR and you should be able to see the flaws in that. If not...I guess I'm arguing with myself. I've not been shy with my opinion that Red Sox nation has largely turned into a fanbase of 'pink hats'. Yes, I used that term, and if you can actually remember Fenway without them, you probably understand what the term means, though I'm sure an argument will follow...as that term really offends some people.


    Yes, we know he's not a free agent until the end of the season.  Neither was Kershaw when he got his new contract, neither was Hamels etc.  The idea is you sign them before they hit free agency and are turned loose into the market auction.  The idea is you secure them for your own team, and in Lester's case, for less than what you would have to pay to top the market.  It ain't rocket science.

    Yes, 'pink hats' is an offensive term because it refers to non-knowledgeable bandwagon types.  I wouldn't call anyone who posts on this forum that. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    The problem with the "pink hat" epithet is that it just ends up getting used to denounce whatever position someone disagrees with, whether it makes sense in that context or not.

    You can argue whether we should or should not extend Jon Lester, or whether it would be worth it at this price but not at that price, but I hardly see how having a certain opinion on that subject makes a person a "pink hat."

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The problem with the "pink hat" epithet is that it just ends up getting used to denounce whatever position someone disagrees with, whether it makes sense in that context or not.

    You can argue whether we should or should not extend Jon Lester, or whether it would be worth it at this price but not at that price, but I hardly see how having a certain opinion on that subject makes a person a "pink hat."

    [/QUOTE]

    I think Lester SHOULD get extended. Just not at 20per. 

    To me, people convincing themselves that 20per is any kind of hometown discount is laughable. If they had given him 20 per, when he was 27, for 6 years...you could justify that. And, well...let me backtrack...I actually WOULD give Lester 20per year...for 2 years. But annual amount AND length? No. That's not what you do when you sign a guy early unless you're a team like TB or MIL who is legitimately small market and HAS to extend early like that. And then, those teams NEVER do it with a 30 year old because the risk is simply too high, and they rarely, if ever, pay off.

     
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