Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying "I want to stay in Boston!"

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to jasko2248's comment:
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    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
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    If other teams out there are willing to pay Lester 5/100 or more then a pitcher who is as good or better is not going to magically sign with Boston for less, we will have to outbid everyone else on the market.

    SOOO unless we want to role with an entirely homegrown rotation it makes all the sense in the world to lock up Lester if he is willing to take a discount.

    Even if we paid Lester 20 million a year we will still have 52 million a year to play with after him next year assuming all arbitration and league minimum salaries and 15 million a year for Papi.

    Sox have the money, Lester is going to get paid.

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    4-72 is not even a discount.

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    4-72 is an insult in today's pitching market.  Clayton Kershaw, who got shelled in the NLCS, just got TWO hundred plus million.  Do you really think Lester is worth 1/3 of what Kershaw is worth?  Lester obviously isn't Kershaw, but if Lester hits free agency, I have no doubt he would get a 6/140 type deal next year.

     All teams are locking up pitching and very few top guys ever hit free agency these days.  Scherzer will likely re-sign with Detroit, so that basically leaves Shields as the only top starter who will be available next year.  Even the mid-market teams have a ton of money to spend these days & pitching is an obvious commodity.  The Sox Front Office will undoubtedly extend him, but "4/72" wouldn't even get a counter offer from Lester's agent.

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    Kershaw's deal was great.... for the Dodgers. Kershaw  gave them a discount.

    Kershaw was 25, so comparing the total package is silly. Lester is currently about 50% the pitcher Kershaw is. However, Lester has turned 30. Will he be half the pitcher Kershaw is 4 years from now?  Anyway, half of 30 million a year that Kershaw gets is 15 million. Far less then I am offering.

    [/QUOTE]

    Okay Bmav, you're clearly not a Lester fan. Your "stat manipulation" to try to make your case against Lester was one of the worst I've ever seen, but you're letting your dislike of Lester cloud your sense of reality.  I'd learn to like him though, as he isn't going anywhere anytime soon & he's going to get paid a heck of a lot more than you think.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
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    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to jasko2248's comment:
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    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
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    If other teams out there are willing to pay Lester 5/100 or more then a pitcher who is as good or better is not going to magically sign with Boston for less, we will have to outbid everyone else on the market.

    SOOO unless we want to role with an entirely homegrown rotation it makes all the sense in the world to lock up Lester if he is willing to take a discount.

    Even if we paid Lester 20 million a year we will still have 52 million a year to play with after him next year assuming all arbitration and league minimum salaries and 15 million a year for Papi.

    Sox have the money, Lester is going to get paid.

    [/QUOTE]


    4-72 is not even a discount.

    [/QUOTE]

    4-72 is an insult in today's pitching market.  Clayton Kershaw, who got shelled in the NLCS, just got TWO hundred plus million.  Do you really think Lester is worth 1/3 of what Kershaw is worth?  Lester obviously isn't Kershaw, but if Lester hits free agency, I have no doubt he would get a 6/140 type deal next year.

     All teams are locking up pitching and very few top guys ever hit free agency these days.  Scherzer will likely re-sign with Detroit, so that basically leaves Shields as the only top starter who will be available next year.  Even the mid-market teams have a ton of money to spend these days & pitching is an obvious commodity.  The Sox Front Office will undoubtedly extend him, but "4/72" wouldn't even get a counter offer from Lester's agent.

    [/QUOTE]

    Kershaw's deal was great.... for the Dodgers. Kershaw  gave them a discount.

    Kershaw was 25, so comparing the total package is silly. Lester is currently about 50% the pitcher Kershaw is. However, Lester has turned 30. Will he be half the pitcher Kershaw is 4 years from now?  Anyway, half of 30 million a year that Kershaw gets is 15 million. Far less then I am offering.

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    Okay Bmav, you're clearly not a Lester fan. Your "stat manipulation" to try to make your case against Lester was one of the worst I've ever seen, but you're letting your dislike of Lester cloud your sense of reality.  I'd learn to like him though, as he isn't going anywhere anytime soon & he's going to get paid a heck of a lot more than you think.

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    Bull crap. Who said I don't like Lester. I am a Lester fan. Doesn't mean you pay him like a top 10  picher. Your comment was more manipulative then my stats btw.

    I would listen to ANY stats people want to show to indicate he is a 20+ million dollar pitcher. I have yet to here any.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to jasko2248's comment:
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    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to jasko2248's comment:
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    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
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    If other teams out there are willing to pay Lester 5/100 or more then a pitcher who is as good or better is not going to magically sign with Boston for less, we will have to outbid everyone else on the market.

    SOOO unless we want to role with an entirely homegrown rotation it makes all the sense in the world to lock up Lester if he is willing to take a discount.

    Even if we paid Lester 20 million a year we will still have 52 million a year to play with after him next year assuming all arbitration and league minimum salaries and 15 million a year for Papi.

    Sox have the money, Lester is going to get paid.

    [/QUOTE]


    4-72 is not even a discount.

    [/QUOTE]

    4-72 is an insult in today's pitching market.  Clayton Kershaw, who got shelled in the NLCS, just got TWO hundred plus million.  Do you really think Lester is worth 1/3 of what Kershaw is worth?  Lester obviously isn't Kershaw, but if Lester hits free agency, I have no doubt he would get a 6/140 type deal next year.

     All teams are locking up pitching and very few top guys ever hit free agency these days.  Scherzer will likely re-sign with Detroit, so that basically leaves Shields as the only top starter who will be available next year.  Even the mid-market teams have a ton of money to spend these days & pitching is an obvious commodity.  The Sox Front Office will undoubtedly extend him, but "4/72" wouldn't even get a counter offer from Lester's agent.

    [/QUOTE]

    Kershaw's deal was great.... for the Dodgers. Kershaw  gave them a discount.

    Kershaw was 25, so comparing the total package is silly. Lester is currently about 50% the pitcher Kershaw is. However, Lester has turned 30. Will he be half the pitcher Kershaw is 4 years from now?  Anyway, half of 30 million a year that Kershaw gets is 15 million. Far less then I am offering.

    [/QUOTE]

    Okay Bmav, you're clearly not a Lester fan. Your "stat manipulation" to try to make your case against Lester was one of the worst I've ever seen, but you're letting your dislike of Lester cloud your sense of reality.  I'd learn to like him though, as he isn't going anywhere anytime soon & he's going to get paid a heck of a lot more than you think.

    [/QUOTE]

    Bull crap. Who said I don't like Lester. I am a Lester fan. Doesn't mean you pay him like a top 10  picher. Your comment was more manipulative then my stats btw.

    I would listen to ANY stats people want to show to indicate he is a 20+ million dollar pitcher. I have yet to here any.

    [/QUOTE]

    Okay, fair enough, I guess we'll just have to wait until he signs his next contract.  Whether or not his "stats" can be manipulated to "prove" that he's a 20 million dollar per year pitcher is debatable, but his "value" to the Sox organization goes well beyond the numbers on the back of his baseball card, something that often gets lost on this message board.  I'll agree to disagree, but don't bet the mortgage payment on anything in the 4/72 neighborhood.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     



    I am counting his 5 playoff starts and his last 10 games of the regular season as his last 15 games. The previous 60 would be the his first 23 this season, all of 2012 and the last 4 games of 2011. His previous 60.  It may be cherry picking a bad stretch, but it is a 60 game continuos stretch. 368 innings in a row. Its a very large cherry bowl.

    Here are his stats in those 60 games....

    ERA----4.89
    WHIP---1.40

    If we just counted those numbers over the last 3 seasons, Lester would rank 130th and 149th out of 163 starters with atleast 250 innings pitched. My point is that Lester SUCKED in the 60 outings before August 8th of 2013. Not even close to 10 million dollar worthy. Yet I am low balling him at 18 million a year? At 30? When he isn't even a free agent yet?

    Those 15 starts has changed peoples thinking too much IMO.

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    Really? You honestly think that from Sept. 2011 until Aug. 8, 2013 that Lester was never good?

    No one is denying that he a bad stretch in 2013 and his 2012 season had bad stretches too. But to use such a blanket statement with no analysis of how that ERA was compiled is intellectually dishonest and lazy. 

    You can still make your case that you don't thing Lester is worth re-signing. But simply beginning an ending at a somewhat arbritrary points just to make sure you include all the bad stretches and limiting the good stretches, ignoring how the Bobby Valentine circus with two pitching coaches who didn't talk to the manger affected him in 2012 and trying to lump three seasons of pitching under one umbrella is weak way to build your case.

    Heck, I can just argue that over his last 194 starts he has a 3.65 ERA. Huge cherry bowl.

    Or if you think that goes back too far, how about he has a 2.56 ERA over his last 21 starts, including the postseason. His most recent 21 starts probably are a better indication of how he is now than what he did in Sept of 2011 or even last year.

    Or if you want a bigger sample, how about this: Let's say he went off the rails in Sept of 2011 and it continued into 2012. But in the last two months of 2012, he turned things around (3.76 ERA in the last two months). So in his last 45 regular-season starts, he has a 3.75 ERA. That's a pretty big cherry bowl.

    And to make the cherry bowl bigger, if you include the postseason, he has a 3.52 ERA in his last 50 starts.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    Yes!  I'm quite sure the sox extent him at about 20M / yr 5 years.  Maybe slightly less?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to royf19's comment:
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    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to royf19's comment:

     

     

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    But to use such a blanket statement  trying to lump three seasons of pitching under one umbrella is weak way to build your case.

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    I didn't use it to build my case that he doesn't deserve the contracts being offered. I built my case on that a few months ago when we already talked about Lester and I used his last 3 COMPLETE seasons of WAR and commonly used contract formula's to show that he wasn't even worth 4-72. And thats without even giving ANY discount. I also showed how his WAR numbers were by far his best stats, so even those WAR numbers were very generous. 

    The purpose of the 60 game stats I just now used was very specific and to the point. He wasn't pitching well for a long time, up until late this season. That is a fact and is based on those numbers I used. And in early August at the end of that 60 game time frame  nobody would have suggested some of the contracts being discusssed now. NOBODY. Instead, we were discussing if he should be traded. If he should be offered the QO in hopes of getting a pick. Or if we should let it all play out. Most taking that route. Go read what people were saying about Lester back in the summer. Especially on other sites. It was pretty ugly. And 15 games later smart people are throwing around 140 million dollar extensions on top of 13 million already owed. Isn't that a huge change in such a short time? Its a fair question isn't it? This is my point. And there was nothing dishonest about it.

    He was very strong those last 15 games. This is a very important set of numbers. What was done lately is more important then what was done in the past as you say. The question is how important. I say people are remembering those last 15 games and forgetting the overall last three years in total.

    Maybe he knew we were in excellent position to win a championship and knew he wanted to get an extension this off season instead of waiting. Sure seems like it. So he geared up and gave everything he had those last 15 or 20 games. A championship and contract push all rolled into one. Is that reasonable to think? Did that take something out of him? Will he be able to repeat that performance or anything close to it this season?

    I think getting into Lester being unable to pitch effectively because he had some problem with his manager is more shakey then any numbers I have presented. Certainly not something any of us know enough about to try and explain away a bad year from a veteran pitcher with great make up.

    Finally,  using your numbers, a 3.52 ERA over his last 50 games is fair to talk about and it is a very respectable ERA. Ranking 40th among starters the last 2 years with at least 180 innings. Tied with Lackey and just behind Tillman, Pettite and Santiago and just ahead of Niese, Harrison and Buchholz. Are those 140 million dollar pitchers? Or 20+ million dollar pitchers? I don't think anybody here would say anybody behind him in ERA in those rankings is worth the contracts being thrown around here either. So your own numbers make a bad case.. Your own cherries are spoiled a bit. But honestly used, just like mine were.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    As everyone knows (well some people) Fangrapsh takes a players WAR and weighs it with the FREE agent dollars spent relative a free agents WAR.  In other words, it is an indicator of what a player is worth in free agency.

    according to Fangraphs Jon Lesters value per year the last 6 years:

     

    22.7 million

    27.7 million

    21.4 million

    15.7 million

    14.2 million

    21.4 million.

    Even during a "down year" Lester is at least a 15 million dollar a year pitcher.  

    He has averaged a WAR of 3.675 per year, and that is averaging in his first two years as a part time pitcher when he posted a WAR of 1.3, .5

    A pitcher is getting about 5 million per WAR this year, and that number has steadily risen over the years.  So I think it would be fair enough to say that he is worth more than 15 million a year.  A weighted average of his seasons says he is worth about 18.375 million a year. If you take out his first two seasons where bounced back from triple A to the big leagues he becomes a 23/m a year pitcher. 

    I'm not saying he is going to get 23 million a year, but he has also said that "I don't want to set the market back" to me that means a hometown discount comes either in lower AAV for a lot of years or fair value for less years. 

    I think 126 million over 7 years is a fair deal.  It pays him slightly below his market value today, and will likely pay him what he is worth when his production goes down and you factor in player salary inflation. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What do you offer him?  what would it take right now?

    Bertrand says it would take about 6 yrs @ about 25M / yr.

     

    What would you offer right now to lock him up?

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    whoa...if Lester do not mind discount contract, and most of you are offering him 20 millions dollars a year contract.  That is not discount contract.  That is being one of the highest paid pitcher for any free agency player for next season.  

    Come on, discount contract should be like $85 millions for 5 years!!!!!  He ll take it!!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What do you offer him?  what would it take right now?

    Bertrand says it would take about 6 yrs @ about 25M / yr.

     

    What would you offer right now to lock him up?

    [/QUOTE]

    whoa...if Lester do not mind discount contract, and most of you are offering him 20 millions dollars a year contract.  That is not discount contract.  That is being one of the highest paid pitcher for any free agency player for next season.  

    Come on, discount contract should be like $85 millions for 5 years!!!!!  He ll take it!!

    [/QUOTE]

    according to Fangraphs, Lesters value per year the last 6 years

    22.7 million

    27.7 million

    21.4 million

    15.7 million

    14.2 million

    21.4 million.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    Zack Greinke is a very appropriate comp - he got 6 years 150 million.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Zack Greinke is a very appropriate comp - he got 6 years 150 million.

    [/QUOTE]

    thats 25 million a year, but he is also younger.  Still Lester is going to get paid, and the cost for starting pitching goes up every year. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from 37stories. Show 37stories's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    We should ask Pumpsie what the going rate for a number 4 starter is.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
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    If other teams out there are willing to pay Lester 5/100 or more then a pitcher who is as good or better is not going to magically sign with Boston for less, we will have to outbid everyone else on the market.

    SOOO unless we want to role with an entirely homegrown rotation it makes all the sense in the world to lock up Lester if he is willing to take a discount.

    Even if we paid Lester 20 million a year we will still have 52 million a year to play with after him next year assuming all arbitration and league minimum salaries and 15 million a year for Papi.

    Sox have the money, Lester is going to get paid.

    [/QUOTE]


    4-72 is not even a discount.

    [/QUOTE]

    4-72 is an insult in today's pitching market.  Clayton Kershaw, who got shelled in the NLCS, just got TWO hundred plus million.  Do you really think Lester is worth 1/3 of what Kershaw is worth?  Lester obviously isn't Kershaw, but if Lester hits free agency, I have no doubt he would get a 6/140 type deal next year.

     All teams are locking up pitching and very few top guys ever hit free agency these days.  Scherzer will likely re-sign with Detroit, so that basically leaves Shields as the only top starter who will be available next year.  Even the mid-market teams have a ton of money to spend these days & pitching is an obvious commodity.  The Sox Front Office will undoubtedly extend him, but "4/72" wouldn't even get a counter offer from Lester's agent.

    [/QUOTE]


    to even assume that 4/72 isnt an insult is ridiculous. Im at a loss for words with that comment...wow.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    Well, personally I think Lester should just shut his mouth and pitch. What, isn't the contract he has for this year enough? How dare he even think about asking for more? Ungrateful jerk.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from 37stories. Show 37stories's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Well, personally I think Lester should just shut his mouth and pitch. What, isn't the contract he has for this year enough? How dare he even think about asking for more? Ungrateful jerk.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yeah I know he has been doing it every time his contract has come up since 2006.

    Oh...wait.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
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    In response to jasko2248's comment:
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    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
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    If other teams out there are willing to pay Lester 5/100 or more then a pitcher who is as good or better is not going to magically sign with Boston for less, we will have to outbid everyone else on the market.

    SOOO unless we want to role with an entirely homegrown rotation it makes all the sense in the world to lock up Lester if he is willing to take a discount.

    Even if we paid Lester 20 million a year we will still have 52 million a year to play with after him next year assuming all arbitration and league minimum salaries and 15 million a year for Papi.

    Sox have the money, Lester is going to get paid.

    [/QUOTE]


    4-72 is not even a discount.

    [/QUOTE]

    4-72 is an insult in today's pitching market.  Clayton Kershaw, who got shelled in the NLCS, just got TWO hundred plus million.  Do you really think Lester is worth 1/3 of what Kershaw is worth?  Lester obviously isn't Kershaw, but if Lester hits free agency, I have no doubt he would get a 6/140 type deal next year.

     All teams are locking up pitching and very few top guys ever hit free agency these days.  Scherzer will likely re-sign with Detroit, so that basically leaves Shields as the only top starter who will be available next year.  Even the mid-market teams have a ton of money to spend these days & pitching is an obvious commodity.  The Sox Front Office will undoubtedly extend him, but "4/72" wouldn't even get a counter offer from Lester's agent.

    [/QUOTE]


    to even assume that 4/72 isnt an insult is ridiculous. Im at a loss for words with that comment...wow.

    [/QUOTE]
    Also he is the one said, "ill take discount to remain as a Red Sox member"!!

    If he is worth more than that, then he should keep his mouth shut and try to have another good year, and then hit the free agency and try to find his best money he can find!!!

    So the whole point is that he said he want to stay as a Red Sox member at the same time he would take a discount offer!!!  4/72 deal sound good to me!!!

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
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    If other teams out there are willing to pay Lester 5/100 or more then a pitcher who is as good or better is not going to magically sign with Boston for less, we will have to outbid everyone else on the market.

    SOOO unless we want to role with an entirely homegrown rotation it makes all the sense in the world to lock up Lester if he is willing to take a discount.

    Even if we paid Lester 20 million a year we will still have 52 million a year to play with after him next year assuming all arbitration and league minimum salaries and 15 million a year for Papi.

    Sox have the money, Lester is going to get paid.




    4-72 is not even a discount.

    [/QUOTE]

    4-72 is an insult in today's pitching market.  Clayton Kershaw, who got shelled in the NLCS, just got TWO hundred plus million.  Do you really think Lester is worth 1/3 of what Kershaw is worth?  Lester obviously isn't Kershaw, but if Lester hits free agency, I have no doubt he would get a 6/140 type deal next year.

     All teams are locking up pitching and very few top guys ever hit free agency these days.  Scherzer will likely re-sign with Detroit, so that basically leaves Shields as the only top starter who will be available next year.  Even the mid-market teams have a ton of money to spend these days & pitching is an obvious commodity.  The Sox Front Office will undoubtedly extend him, but "4/72" wouldn't even get a counter offer from Lester's agent.

    [/QUOTE]


    to even assume that 4/72 isnt an insult is ridiculous. Im at a loss for words with that comment...wow.

    [/QUOTE]
    Also he is the one said, "ill take discount to remain as a Red Sox member"!!

    If he is worth more than that, then he should keep his mouth shut and try to have another good year, and then hit the free agency and try to find his best money he can find!!!

    So the whole point is that he said he want to stay as a Red Sox member at the same time he would take a discount offer!!!  4/72 deal sound good to me!!!

    [/QUOTE]

    yeah 4/72 sounds good to you...you know 10 million over 10 years sounds even better!!!

    Lester has averaged 31 starts over 200 innings the last 6 years.  He is one of the only pitchers in baseball to do so.  His league adjusted era puts him on par with Greinkee.

    Also fangraphs calculates a players value using WAR compared to free agent signings that year.  4 of the last 6 years Jon Lester has been worth MORE than 20 million a year...and with player inflation that number is bound to go up. (this is relevant because it shows that the free market is going to pay him 20 million plus a year, whether you like it or not)

    If Lester is going to take a lower AAV, then there is no way in heck it is going to be for such a short duration.  You guys need to stop living in la la land. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    Detroit has gotten rid of Fielder and Fister, to make sure they have funds to pay Scherzer. If Tanaka can get 22 a year, this guy will start at 25.  I cant see Lester and his Agent not asking for less that 20 million a year. He hits open market he'll get that and some.

    The market changed for Starters when Tanaka was signed.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How about 5 years, 110 million.

    [/QUOTE]


    I like Lester, but that souns a tad steep.

    I liked the 6/108 number.

    [/QUOTE]

    I like the $$ amount but I think the years are one too many: 5/90 is what I would offer him. That should be enough for him to feed his family

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to 37stories's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Well, personally I think Lester should just shut his mouth and pitch. What, isn't the contract he has for this year enough? How dare he even think about asking for more? Ungrateful jerk.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yeah I know he has been doing it every time his contract has come up since 2006.

    Oh...wait.

    [/QUOTE]


    The obvious retort to that is that Lester has never really had to worry about his contract as he signed a long-term extension pretty early in his career. This is the first time he has even gotten close to free agency. Ortiz, OTOH, has had to deal with it almost constantly for the last few seasons.

    Not trying to hijack this thread with Papi discussion (there are about 16 other threads for that), but a player "talking about his contract" and discussing his wishes for the future in his contract year isn't exactly something world-shattering. I wish Ortiz handled these situations a little differently sometimes too, but the difference between what he's saying and what Lester is saying is primarily one of tone, not substance.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How about 5 years, 110 million.

    [/QUOTE]


    I think this is probably a fair amount for both sides. Anything much below that I would consider a steal.

    Lester has rightly been lauded for saying he'll take a discount, but that may not mean what a lot of fans probably think it means. No one should fool themselves into thinking this is going to be cheap.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    The purpose of the 60 game stats I just now used was very specific and to the point. He wasn't pitching well for a long time, up until late this season. 

    The problem is your statement is wildly inaccurate. First, including 2011 is ridiculous. He had a couple of bad starts to end an excellent season. Has nothing to do with anything going forward.

    And using high ERA over any period doesn’t always tell you how good or bad a pitcher has been because a couple of really bad starts can distort the picture. You make it sound like he was consistently terrible over those 60 games and that simply isn’t the case.

    Over the first eight or nine games of 2012, he had an ERA in the low 3.00s. In the first half of 2012 after 17 starts, he had an ERA of 4.33, which isn’t great of course. However, if you take out his two worst starts, his ERA was around 3.53 for the other 15 starts. That a decent chunk of games. Now I’m not saying ignore the bad starts. But if they were simply bad starts instead of horrible starts, his ERA might have ballooned to just 3.93 instead of 4.33. Still had the same number of good and bad starts, but it shows how being horrible instead of just bad can distort the ERA and the overall picture.

    There’s no doubt that he had a bad July, but then the last two months, he had a 3.76 ERA for 12 starts — another good stretch.

    In 2013, he got off to a great start through mid-May (nine starts). He slumped over the next six weeks (eight starts) when he his best was just mediocre and he had some bad starts too.

    But he turned it around in July, not August. You used Aug. 8 to make it sound like he was bad for longer than he really was because he had that bad start on Aug. 2. And he had a bad start on July 8. However, his other four starts between the beginning of July and Aug. 8 were good starts.

    So it’s not quite as simply to say he "scked for 60 starts." 

    Beyond that, it’s also unfair to lump years together because each year is different. Looking at his as a whole, he was very good in 2011 and 2013 and stunk in 2012. In the good years, he had bad periods and in the bad year he had good stretches.

    I think getting into Lester being unable to pitch effectively because he had some problem with his manager is more shakey then any numbers I have presented. 

    Then why are there pitching coaches? The fact of the matter, if you believe Farrell, is that Lester had some mechanical issues in 2012 along with problems with his approach. It’s not unreasonable to think that a better situation in the coaching staff would have helped Lester, rather than being a dysfunctional situation where pitching coaches and manager are not talking. If pitching coaches have no effect on pitchers, then why have them?

    Finally,  using your numbers, a 3.52 ERA over his last 50 games is fair to talk about and it is a very respectable ERA. Ranking 40th among starters the last 2 years with at least 180 innings. Tied with Lackey and just behind Tillman, Pettite and Santiago and just ahead of Niese, Harrison and Buchholz. Are those 140 million dollar pitchers? Or 20+ million dollar pitchers? I don't think anybody here would say anybody behind him in ERA in those rankings is worth the contracts being thrown around here either. 

    I never said I would give Lester the $140M-plus or whatever. I honestly don’t know.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    5 years @ $100,000,031 will get it done.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    .

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Lester talking up the Hometown Discount, saying

    Yes 180 innings over the last 2 years is 90 a year.  Lets take a longer look

    In a minimum of 600 IP over that last 5 years 

    Lester ranks 33/92 in ERA and 18/92 in fielding independent ERA

    10/92 K/9

    4th in wins

    9th in games started

    13 IP

    8th in WAR

    To take an even longer look how about over the last 6 years and 1,000 innings pitched.

    6/16 in FIP

    7/16 in WAR right behind Kershaw,Grienkee, Sabathia and right in front of Cole Hammels, Shields, Lincecum, and Matt Cain.

    Yeah so he hasn't been elite elite....but Lester has been a pretty darn good pitcher, with as good if not better post season numbers than any of those guys.

    The notion that one of the better and most durable pitchers in all of baseball would get a 4 year deal under 20 million in this market is absurd. 

     

     

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