Lester: the hard cold numbers

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Lester: the hard cold numbers

    Jon Lester since September 11, 2011:

    54 starts

    319.2 innings

    174 earned runs

    4.90 ERA

    24 Quality Starts

    The 24 Quality Starts include 5 with the 'bare minimum' of 6 innings, 3 earned runs.  If you eliminate those, you're down to 19 Quality Starts out of 52 games, or 36.5%.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    Jon Lester prior to September 11, 2011:

    147 starts

    938 innings

    358 earned runs

    3.43 ERA

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Jon Lester since September 11, 2011:

    54 starts

    319.2 innings

    174 earned runs

    4.90 ERA

    24 Quality Starts

    The 24 Quality Starts include 5 with the 'bare minimum' of 6 innings, 3 earned runs.  If you eliminate those, you're down to 19 Quality Starts out of 52 games, or 36.5%.



    It's alarming. His K/BB ration is 5/2. His BAA isn't bad (.252) but given his ERA of 4.37, that tells me he's not getting outs when he needs them. Lester is 2013 is reminding me of Beckett a few years back. With all of the potential youngsters coming up, he may not be worth resigning.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Jon Lester since September 11, 2011:

    54 starts

    319.2 innings

    174 earned runs

    4.90 ERA

    24 Quality Starts

    The 24 Quality Starts include 5 with the 'bare minimum' of 6 innings, 3 earned runs.  If you eliminate those, you're down to 19 Quality Starts out of 52 games, or 36.5%.



    Still think he will "come around"? I don't. I have been saying for a long time that he is now just a serviceable #4 SP, and even that may be too kind. Losester is throwing like crap and Bucky is injured. This is the exact scenario that caused me to predict that this is a team capable of winning only about 81 games. Because of their great start it could be a few more, but this is not a playoff caliber team with Losester pitching like he is capable of and Bucky impersonating a Man of Glass.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    Still think he will "come around"? I don't. I have been saying for a long time that he is now just a serviceable #4 SP, and even that may be too kind. Losester is throwing like crap and Bucky is injured. This is the exact scenario that caused me to predict that this is a team capable of winning only about 81 games. Because of their great start it could be a few more, but this is not a playoff caliber team with Losester pitching like he is capable of and Bucky impersonating a Man of Glass.



    Can't candy-coat it anymore, he may not come around at all.  Frankly I feel sick about it. 

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers


    Number of homers that Lester has given up in his first 12 starts this year:  five

    Number of homers that Lester has given up in his last three starts: six

    Tonight, Lester lost for the first time in 10 career starts at Camden Yards.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Still think he will "come around"? I don't. I have been saying for a long time that he is now just a serviceable #4 SP, and even that may be too kind. Losester is throwing like crap and Bucky is injured. This is the exact scenario that caused me to predict that this is a team capable of winning only about 81 games. Because of their great start it could be a few more, but this is not a playoff caliber team with Losester pitching like he is capable of and Bucky impersonating a Man of Glass.

     



    Can't candy-coat it anymore, he may not come around at all.  Frankly I feel sick about it. 

     

     



    The numbers are ugly, but it's not a straight line, which does give you some hope. I don't remember the exact numbers, but in that stretch, there was also a 20-consecutive start span (give or take a start or two) from the beginning of August last year through early to mid-May (don't have time to look up the exact dates) where his ERA was in the low 3.00s.

    That is a long enough and recent enough stretch to give me optimism about his chances of getting back on track again. So we'll see. I'm not ready to give up on him.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers


    I am also not ready to give up on Lester.  His ERA of 4.37 is still "okay".  His next start will be vs. the Tigers..............................that's not good.   LOL

    All jokes aside, I still believe that he wil bounce back. 

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from irish-sox-fan. Show irish-sox-fan's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:


    I am also not ready to give up on Lester.  His ERA of 4.37 is still "okay".  His next start will be vs. the Tigers..............................that's not good.   LOL

    All jokes aside, I still believe that he wil bounce back. 

     



    Why does everybody have such a hard time admitting that this guy is an average 3/4 starter? Who in their right mind ever thought they'd be more comfortable with John Lackey pitching and Jon Lester?!

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Jon Lester since September 11, 2011:

    54 starts

    319.2 innings

    174 earned runs

    4.90 ERA

    24 Quality Starts

    The 24 Quality Starts include 5 with the 'bare minimum' of 6 innings, 3 earned runs.  If you eliminate those, you're down to 19 Quality Starts out of 52 games, or 36.5%.

     



    Still think he will "come around"? I don't. I have been saying for a long time that he is now just a serviceable #4 SP, and even that may be too kind. Losester is throwing like crap and Bucky is injured. This is the exact scenario that caused me to predict that this is a team capable of winning only about 81 games. Because of their great start it could be a few more, but this is not a playoff caliber team with Losester pitching like he is capable of and Bucky impersonating a Man of Glass.

     




    You are so foolish, dude. You can't be taken seriously on this matter anymore. You said Lester was an number 3 and posted all the ERA of number 3's in the league and he had better ERA then all of them. I get it you don't like him. It makes you bias meaning we should listen to you on Lester that is fine. Also you also said that a quality start isn't a quality start if Lester pitched. See through you go rife full of bias. A better defense team out there he probably gives up 3 runs.

    But lets take a deeper look at this game: 8k 0 BB 1HR. Those are pretty good stats.  Can't be too unset about the home run to Davis he has been doing that. A couple blop hits and some really poor defense lead to runs in the 5th.

    This is the last time I am going to talk with you about Lester because I am just tired of the bias and the self congrationals.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to irish-sox-fan's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     


    I am also not ready to give up on Lester.  His ERA of 4.37 is still "okay".  His next start will be vs. the Tigers..............................that's not good.   LOL

    All jokes aside, I still believe that he wil bounce back. 

     

     



    Why does everybody have such a hard time admitting that this guy is an average 3/4 starter? Who in their right mind ever thought they'd be more comfortable with John Lackey pitching and Jon Lester?!

     



    I respect your opinion.  But I would still take Lester over Lackey.  Lester is our #1 starter.  He is going through a slump which I hope he will overcome immediately. 

    Lester gave up 0 walks and gave up a homer to Chris Davis who is a home-run freak.  He just had a few bad breaks today. 

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    I thought it was Lackey who beat Lester, in Fenway last time we were in Play-offs. Deciding game, in which Angels beat us.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

     

    Jon Lester since September 11, 2011:

    54 starts

    319.2 innings

    174 earned runs

    4.90 ERA

    24 Quality Starts

    The 24 Quality Starts include 5 with the 'bare minimum' of 6 innings, 3 earned runs.  If you eliminate those, you're down to 19 Quality Starts out of 52 games, or 36.5%.

     

     



    Still think he will "come around"? I don't. I have been saying for a long time that he is now just a serviceable #4 SP, and even that may be too kind. Losester is throwing like crap and Bucky is injured. This is the exact scenario that caused me to predict that this is a team capable of winning only about 81 games. Because of their great start it could be a few more, but this is not a playoff caliber team with Losester pitching like he is capable of and Bucky impersonating a Man of Glass.

     

     

     




    You are so foolish, dude. You can't be taken seriously on this matter anymore. You said Lester was an number 3 and posted all the ERA of number 3's in the league and he had better ERA then all of them. I get it you don't like him. It makes you bias meaning we should listen to you on Lester that is fine. Also you also said that a quality start isn't a quality start if Lester pitched. See through you go rife full of bias. A better defense team out there he probably gives up 3 runs.

     

    But lets take a deeper look at this game: 8k 0 BB 1HR. Those are pretty good stats.  Can't be too unset about the home run to Davis he has been doing that. A couple blop hits and some really poor defense lead to runs in the 5th.

    This is the last time I am going to talk with you about Lester because I am just tired of the bias and the self congrationals.



    Suit yourself. At the end of the season I think you will look back and see that although my predictions about Lester were pessimistic in your own small mind, they turned out very close to the truth. I wish it weren't so, but that doesn't change anything. I am a Red Sox fan just like you, but I see the facts differently. Lester's ERA is now 4.37 and rising fast. He has had bad start after bad start and next faces the Tigers. He has stunk for over a year and yet you keep insisting he will be just fine. Guess in another five years of his crappy pitching lines you might finally come around. Why should it take that long??

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Still think he will "come around"? I don't. I have been saying for a long time that he is now just a serviceable #4 SP, and even that may be too kind. Losester is throwing like crap and Bucky is injured. This is the exact scenario that caused me to predict that this is a team capable of winning only about 81 games. Because of their great start it could be a few more, but this is not a playoff caliber team with Losester pitching like he is capable of and Bucky impersonating a Man of Glass.

     



    Can't candy-coat it anymore, he may not come around at all.  Frankly I feel sick about it. 

     

     



    I feel sick about it too HFX. This guy has been through hell and back. He seems very grounded and not like some sort of stuck up arrogant schm-uck like Beckett was. Lester is easy to like. I feel bad for him, but he is not the pitcher he once was. I don't think he will ever be that pitcher again.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to irish-sox-fan's comment:

     

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

     


    I am also not ready to give up on Lester.  His ERA of 4.37 is still "okay".  His next start will be vs. the Tigers..............................that's not good.   LOL

    All jokes aside, I still believe that he wil bounce back. 

     

     

     



    Why does everybody have such a hard time admitting that this guy is an average 3/4 starter? Who in their right mind ever thought they'd be more comfortable with John Lackey pitching and Jon Lester?!

     

     

     



    I respect your opinion.  But I would still take Lester over Lackey.  Lester is our #1 starter.  He is going through a slump which I hope he will overcome immediately. 

     

    Lester gave up 0 walks and gave up a homer to Chris Davis who is a home-run freak.  He just had a few bad breaks today. 

     

     



    I was encouraged by the outing.  You never want to see 5 ERs, but this is basically what I said early on in the game thread.  Basically, don't walk anyone.  And while it is tough to draw many conclusions from one game, how often does a guy have an 8/0 K/W without having a good game?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    In response to irish-sox-fan's comment:

     

     

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

     

     


    I am also not ready to give up on Lester.  His ERA of 4.37 is still "okay".  His next start will be vs. the Tigers..............................that's not good.   LOL

    All jokes aside, I still believe that he wil bounce back. 

     

     

     

     



    Why does everybody have such a hard time admitting that this guy is an average 3/4 starter? Who in their right mind ever thought they'd be more comfortable with John Lackey pitching and Jon Lester?!

     

     

     

     

     



    I respect your opinion.  But I would still take Lester over Lackey.  Lester is our #1 starter.  He is going through a slump which I hope he will overcome immediately. 

     

     

    Lester gave up 0 walks and gave up a homer to Chris Davis who is a home-run freak.  He just had a few bad breaks today. 

     

     

     



    I was encouraged by the outing.  You never want to see 5 ERs, but this is basically what I said early on in the game thread.  Basically, don't walk anyone.  And while it is tough to draw many conclusions from one game, how often does a guy have an 8/0 K/W without having a good game?

     




    Its hard to be encouraged by the sum of his work over the last year and a half. He had four great games to start the season, two more later on, then a whole bunch of eggs. You don't have to draw any conclusions from just this game. You have lots of others to choose from over the last what-54 starts in total? I hope he turns it around, but there is no objective evidence that he can do it.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    Its hard to be encouraged by the sum of his work over the last year and a half. He had four great games to start the season, two more later on, then a whole bunch of eggs. You don't have to draw any conclusions from just this game. You have lots of others to choose from over the last what-54 starts in total? I hope he turns it around, but there is no objective evidence that he can do it.

    The numbers basically defy analysis.  He was great for five months in 2011, horrible for one month.  Bad for 4 months in 2012, then pretty good for two months.  Great for half his starts this year, bad for half his starts.  But again, my analysis and conclusion is that pitching to contact and an 8/0 K/W is much better than nibbling against inferior hitters, throwing 15 too many pitches, and putting on three unnecessary runners.

    If you want, we can have a one-day game thread tag bet.  Next game, I'll bet he has a QS.  At the end of the thread, one of us will have to say he was wrong and the other guy was right.

    Any takers?

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Its hard to be encouraged by the sum of his work over the last year and a half. He had four great games to start the season, two more later on, then a whole bunch of eggs. You don't have to draw any conclusions from just this game. You have lots of others to choose from over the last what-54 starts in total? I hope he turns it around, but there is no objective evidence that he can do it.

    The numbers basically defy analysis.  He was great for five months in 2011, horrible for one month.  Bad for 4 months in 2012, then pretty good for two months.  Great for half his starts this year, bad for half his starts.  But again, my analysis and conclusion is that pitching to contact and an 8/0 K/W is much better than nibbling against inferior hitters, throwing 15 too many pitches, and putting on three unnecessary runners.

    If you want, we can have a one-day game thread tag bet.  Next game, I'll bet he has a QS.  At the end of the thread, one of us will have to say he was wrong and the other guy was right.

    Any takers?



    You should move to Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Who knows what kind of game he will pitch next time out? Thats a crapshoot, though it is against the Tigers and they can really hit the baseball. The issue is that the sum of his work, in total, over the last year and a half has been poor. He has had some games, some months in fact, when he has been very good- but thats counterbalanced by games and more months where he has been terrible. Like most pitchers he has been inconsistent. When he was good, from 2008-most of 2011, the very good months far outweighed the poor ones. Now its the other way around and there seems to be no end in sight.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers


    & to think....  Several years ago, we were being told what a 'head-case' Buchholz was.

    It seems clear that Lester's attitude went south in that fateful 2011 season, and he is incapable of shaking it off for good.  The attitude keeps rearing it's ugly head, & he doesn't seem to have it in him to keep it at bay.  His,

    I've always loved the kid, but perhaps a change of scenery is what he needs?  Let's hope the Sox can find another starter historically good starter who also needs a change of scenery? 

    ABB -  Anybody But Beckett  :)

    p.s.  Yes!  It is all Beckett's fault  ;)

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from stan17. Show stan17's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Jon Lester since September 11, 2011:

    54 starts

    319.2 innings

    174 earned runs

    4.90 ERA

    24 Quality Starts

    The 24 Quality Starts include 5 with the 'bare minimum' of 6 innings, 3 earned runs.  If you eliminate those, you're down to 19 Quality Starts out of 52 games, or 36.5%.



    The #'s are what they are. It's too bad because he has the ability to be a really good pitcher. He's just been so inconsistent for the last year & a half. In the 1st month this season he went 4-0 in 6 starts giving up 13 ER in 37.2 inns pitched, that's very good. In his last 6 starts he's 0-4 giving up 28 ER in 35 inns pitched. I don't know what the issue is with Lester and why he is so inconsistent but I'd hate to see them give up on him like they did John Tudor. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    I thought it was Lackey who beat Lester, in Fenway last time we were in Play-offs. Deciding game, in which Angels beat us.

    John Lackey beat Jon Lester in the opening game of the 2009 American League Division Series in Anaheim:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2009_ALDS2.shtml

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Lester: the hard cold numbers

    In response to klaus1954's comment:

    Eck was the color man on todays game and kept saying that Lester had great stuff but it was just one of those days where they hit him. He thought that Lester had all of his stuff working but ran into bad luck.



    And I'm sure there's a lot of truth in that.  But it seems like all too often now we're going into Jon's starts crossing our fingers, and all too often after the game we're trying to find the positives and hoping for better luck next time.

     

     
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