posted at 7/1/2013 4:45 PM EDT
In response to S5's comment:
In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
Nope. The premise of my post is that anyone who is using year-long ERA as an indication of how good a pitching staff is at any given moment is ignoring recent performance, and recent peformance is a better indicator than three month old performance.
I don't subscribe to your opinion that Lester isn't going to get better. Lester has GOTTEN better within the past weeks. Like Dubront when he started to improve, Lester is getting better in the same way. He's getting more good innings in every game than he had in the previous one, and that's progress. Should he continue to pitch better as the weather gets warmer, that would be consistent with his trends in past years.
Sorry S5, but those are simply not the facts. Lester's ERA has increased after every single start since his May 10 start. Here are the FACTS about Lester's ERA. They are not subject to reasonable debate:
After his start on May 15: 2.72, May 20: 3.15, May 25: 3.34, May 31: 3.53, June 6: 3.60, June 11: 4.12, June 16: 4.37, June 21: 4.57, June 27: 4.61.
You don't determine that a pitcher is "getting better" by watching him pitch alone. Thats primarily done through the use of statistics. Do you have any objective proof that Lester is "getting better"? I have some proof-pretty compelling IMO-that, in fact, he is getting WORSE. I don't think that trend will continue forever; he will level off with an ERA around 4.40-4.60 I now think ( he is pitching even worse than I thought he would at the beginning of the year when I thought he would end up closer to 4.40). The fact is that Lester is not getting better, he is getting worse.
WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE
Will you PLEASE dig a hole, put the goalposts in it, and pour cement around them!
You started out this thread talking about Lester, then it went to team ERA, then it went to whether or not the Sox have enough pitching to win the WS, and now we're back at Lester again! Probably because this is the only topic you can begin to make a case for.
You like to talk about ERA - Earned Run AVERAGE, and it's exactly that. An average. And as with many metrics it ignores the obvious in favor of the easy.
Lester got the snot kicked out of him on June 11 against TB when he went 4.2 and gave up 7 runs.
In his next start he pitched 4 good innings and got lit up in the 5th for 4 runs.
In his next start he pitched 5.2 innings, again 4 good ones but didn't get out of the 5th although he went deeper into the 5th.
In his next start he went 7 innings (he gave up 2 runs through 6) and gave up 2 more in the 7th.
That's progress. Progress that doesn't show up in the numbers but progress nontheless.
This is entirely a matter of how we look at things. I look for progress and you look at numbers. While I like to see the glass as being half full you prefer to think that not only is the glass half empty, the water in it is polluted. :-)
This thread is no different than any other thread. The topic being discussed sometimes has nothing to do with the OP. The discussion meanders around but is usually about baseball.
As for "progress", you have to be able to MEASURE it. To say that Lester pitched five great innings but gave up four runs in the sixth is meaningless to me because he DID give up four runs in six innings. ALL the runs and ALL the innings count. If you want to toss out some of the bad innings, lets toss out some of the good ones too. THEY ALL COUNT!!
What I am saying is that if you think Lester is improving, show me the statistics to prove it. Otherwise its just opinion, which is fine, but it does not deserve equal weight to an arguement backed up by stats. I have presented many many stats that indicate that Lester is a below average pitcher who has shown no signs of becoming good for nearly two years. I WISH he were good, but that doesn't make him good. Where is will be in two months is pure conjecture. Right now, he is not very good and he is not getting better, objectively speaking.