Lester

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    Re: Lester

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
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    In response to slomag's comment:
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    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
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    You certainly don't determine a pitcher is "getting worse" by charting his ERA.  Matt Cain's ERA is 4.29 - you think that's an accurate picture of his performance this year?  You think Buchholz is having a better year than Matt Harvey?  You think Jeff Locke and Mike Leake are better pitchers than Cliff Lee and Chris Sale?  If we trade for a pitcher for the stretch run, you would rather have Jeremy Guthrie than Jake Peavy?

     

    Lester was struggling for several weeks, but his last performance was dominant.  It may have been a fluke, or it may have been something he can build off of, but it was not mediocre, and using one game's ERA to prove otherwise only argues against your criteria.  Advanced metrics and human beings with eyes are in consensus on this one.

    Matt Cain's ERA is 4.29 - you think that's an accurate picture of his performance this year?

    Yes, I do. I also think that he has more talent that his ERA reflects, but I measure performance by NUMBERS, not by reputation. Like Lester, Cain has not performed well this year. I live out here near where the Giants play and their pitching has been a disappointment to their fans. Despite what some here to be a good performance by Lester, it wasn't. Four ER in 7 innings is not a good performance, and as a result of it his ERA went up. If you think Lester is getting better, show me the STATISTICS to prove your point. Telling me that he looks better out there is meaningless without the numbers back it up. He has been bad to mediocre for almost two years now and there is no rational basis for thinking he will turn it around.

     

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

     

     

     

     

     

    I'm not arguing Lester has a trend of improvement, but his last game was dominant.  The statistics are three hits and two walks through seven innings, for an in-game WHIP of 0.714.  Don't discount the 8th inning, and you still have an in-game whip of 1.1 - a significant improvement over his season average, and the only way to get there is to completely ignore the injury that took him out of the game.

    Look at Matt Cain - he's been a Cy young contender each of the past three years.  His WHIP, his opponent batting average, his H/9, BB/9, K/9 - everything is exactly the same.  He's the exact same pitcher he's been the past three years, and he's terrific.  You know what I think is the reason for the higher ERA?  Ryan Vogelsong.  Cain never gave up more than 5 ER in a game last year, but this year he needs to tough out the stinkers to save the pen.  So 4 out of 5 starts are great, but in the fifth, he gives up 7 or 8 runs in six innings instead of 5 runs in 4 innings. Same pitcher as last year - ERA is 1.5 runs higher.

     

     

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    Not sure exactly what is up with Cain. He is a very talented pitcher whose ERA is higher than it has been in the past. I don't really follow him very closely.

     

     

    I agree that if the game for Lester ended after 7 innings it could be classified as a very good game. His numbers, as you pointed out, were great after seven full. When you quote his WHIP for the game, hits agains, runs against its a stronger arguement than " He is getting better, I can just tell" or something like that. I admitted that his last game was an improvement over his previous efforts, but in the end, counting everything, it was not something I could say is "good". And until someone can come up with a cogent arguement backed up by statistics that show that Lester is on the mend I am going to continue to believe that he is stuck in the same mud he was in last year-below average and probably a #4 SP at best. Like all Sox fans, I hope he can regain the form that made him a dominant LHSP from 2008 to 2011.

     

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    There. That's what I was saying all along - that he's making progress! 

     

    That wasn't so hard, now was it?  Cool

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    I wrote that last game was a better effort than his previous games a long time ago. So one could say that he was better for part of a single game. Its not a trend, not yet. There is no evidence that he has turned the corner from the quagmire he has been stuck in for almost two years.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
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    I wrote that last game was a better effort than his previous games a long time ago. So one could say that he was better for part of a single game. Its not a trend, not yet. There is no evidence that he has turned the corner from the quagmire he has been stuck in for almost two years.

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    PART?  Part of a single game??  He pitched six good innings and could have had seven had the bullpen done it's job.  That's solid criteria for a starter in this day and age! 

    Has this goalpost now been moved to where he has to pitch a complete game before he can be given credit for pitching well?

    I ain't sayin' he's THERE.  I'm saying he's improving, and that's what I want to see... PROGRESS.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:



    I wrote that last game was a better effort than his previous games a long time ago. So one could say that he was better for part of a single game. Its not a trend, not yet. There is no evidence that he has turned the corner from the quagmire he has been stuck in for almost two years.

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    PART?  Part of a single game??  He pitched six good innings and could have had seven had the bullpen done it's job.  That's solid criteria for a starter in this day and age! 

    Has this goalpost now been moved to where he has to pitch a complete game before he can be given credit for pitching well?

    I ain't sayin' he's THERE.  I'm saying he's improving, and that's what I want to see... PROGRESS.

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    I am not willing to call six good innings progress until it becomes a trend. Hell, any ML pitcher can toss six good innings from time to time. I am willing ONLY to say that he had six good innings during his last game. Unfortunately, he also went out there for the seventh and allowed two baserunners and a 3-0 count on the next guy without retiring anyone. That counts too.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lester


    Half empty, and polluted.  Laughing

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to S5's comment:


    Half empty, and polluted.  Laughing

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.




    Good debate; see you in the game chatroom.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lester

    Laughing

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    7 solid innings from Lester tonight allowing only 1 run. Hes certainly trending in the right direction.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    7 solid innings from Lester tonight allowing only 1 run. Hes certainly trending in the right direction.




    The last two games have been encouraging-especially last nights game and especially after a very rocky first inning. In the end he allowed just one ER in seven innings and for the first time since May 15 his ERA wend DOWN. Still, its only two games. If he can continue to pitch like he did last night over the next 6-8 starts I will begin to believe he has turned the corner. He has been bad for so long its going to take some consistently good starts to make a believer out of me.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    7 solid innings from Lester tonight allowing only 1 run. Hes certainly trending in the right direction.

     




    The last two games have been encouraging-especially last nights game and especially after a very rocky first inning. In the end he allowed just one ER in seven innings and for the first time since May 15 his ERA wend DOWN. Still, its only two games. If he can continue to pitch like he did last night over the next 6-8 starts I will begin to believe he has turned the corner. He has been bad for so long its going to take some consistently good starts to make a believer out of me.

     

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    That is a good first step.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    7 solid innings from Lester tonight allowing only 1 run. Hes certainly trending in the right direction.

     




    The last two games have been encouraging-especially last nights game and especially after a very rocky first inning. In the end he allowed just one ER in seven innings and for the first time since May 15 his ERA wend DOWN. Still, its only two games. If he can continue to pitch like he did last night over the next 6-8 starts I will begin to believe he has turned the corner. He has been bad for so long its going to take some consistently good starts to make a believer out of me.

     

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    I can understand feeling like that from some fans.

    In the OP I had mentioned that I not only noticed an adjustment with his glove position, but that he was using his change up more. Today I read another article confirming just that. Hes adjusting his approach with his pitch selection. Smart pitchers can adapt. It was nice to see him hit 95MPH on the gun a few times last night too.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/28811/changeup-keys-lesters-turnaround

    Im cautiously optimistic, but leaning towards the optimistic side. I believe Lester can become dominant again.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

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    7 solid innings from Lester tonight allowing only 1 run. Hes certainly trending in the right direction.

     

     




    The last two games have been encouraging-especially last nights game and especially after a very rocky first inning. In the end he allowed just one ER in seven innings and for the first time since May 15 his ERA wend DOWN. Still, its only two games. If he can continue to pitch like he did last night over the next 6-8 starts I will begin to believe he has turned the corner. He has been bad for so long its going to take some consistently good starts to make a believer out of me.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE] I've  been saying all along he would make the adjustments .

     

    He's healty strong and smart and my guess like most Red Sox players have a strong dislike for fans like you.

    Lester will win 15 plus game this year and we will pick up his option for next year.

    Hopefully we can trade you for some disgruntled ex Yankee fan.

    Pumpsie crying the sky is falling on players makes me sick.

     

     

     

     

    Some here are real Red Sox fans some are constant haters.

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    Most Red Sox players don't even know me...check that.....ALL Red Sox players don't even know me. And just who are you to speak for "most Red Sox players"? Arrogant imbeciles who speak for "most" of any group make ME sick.

    As for being a Red Sox fan, I have been a Red Sox fan since you were a zygote. I could not care less if you do not like what I write or not. Use the ignore button and make us both happy.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Lester

    The, "he made adjustments with his glove" story is genius. It's an obvious McGuffin, but allows the league office to inform it's collection of Yankee fan bozoz's behind the catcher, that their childish vendeta has gone too far and they need to get over it. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to patrickford's comment:

     

    The, "he made adjustments with his glove" story is genius. It's an obvious McGuffin, but allows the league office to inform it's collection of Yankee fan bozoz's behind the catcher, that their childish vendeta has gone too far and they need to get over it. 

     




    They showed a split screen of the adjustment. so its not a "story", its a fact. Lester also talked about it himself, saying that by holding his glove lower at ther start of his windup gives him better balance.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    Just keeping it real with Jon "Big Game" Lesster. Tonight: 5 IP, 5 ER. Current ERA: 4.60. Pretty crappy. Not even mediocre. Lester has not turned the corner. Lester will never turn the corner. He should be jettisoned at the end of this year. I feel sorry for him, but he stinks.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    I expected you to be here. keeping it real, huh? Thats nice. What your doing, and the intent, is called rubbing it in not keeping it real. We all saw that JL didnt have a good game, but thanks for the update and your opinion of his career. Thank God those that have some patience and a lot more knowledge are in charge. Would you like to call him a cute name now? maybe that will make you feel better...

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    I expected you to be here. keeping it real, huh? Thats nice. What your doing, and the intent, is called rubbing it in not keeping it real. We all saw that JL didnt have a good game, but thanks for the update and your opinion of his career. Thank God those that have some patience and a lot more knowledge are in charge. Would you like to call him a cute name now? maybe that will make you feel better...




    +1

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    I had to report southpaw for being mean to pimpsie   Laughing




    Tongue Out

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Honestly, as I mentioned in March, you would think by now if Lester hadn't turned it around that we could safely bet this is who he is.  I myself had named July 15th as the day I could safely pass judgment, and I believe today he is exactly the same pitcher we have seen since August 2011. He isn't doing well.

    Would you not agree that if he realed off 3 straight solid starts that it was more likely an oddity and that he will have far more streaks of going 5 and surrendering 5?




    I understand your points, and they are valid. Personally, Im just not ready to give up on him yet. He just threw 2 solid games and then last night happened. Maybe he has lost it. I just dont think so. Not yet. I said I would wait til the year is over and evaluate his full year. He has an option to consider next year at a good price. Im just going to let this year play out...

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Honestly, as I mentioned in March, you would think by now if Lester hadn't turned it around that we could safely bet this is who he is.  I myself had named July 15th as the day I could safely pass judgment, and I believe today he is exactly the same pitcher we have seen since August 2011. He isn't doing well.

    Would you not agree that if he realed off 3 straight solid starts that it was more likely an oddity and that he will have far more streaks of going 5 and surrendering 5?

     




    I understand your points, and they are valid. Personally, Im just not ready to give up on him yet. He just threw 2 solid games and then last night happened. Maybe he has lost it. I just dont think so. Not yet. I said I would wait til the year is over and evaluate his full year. He has an option to consider next year at a good price. Im just going to let this year play out...

     

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    Yup.

    It's premature to say Lester is just a mediocre pitcher, going foward.

    He's definitely still got issues to work on.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lester

    Here's why it's so difficult to figure out what Lester is.  It's because he's STREAKY!  He'll absolutely stink the place up for a few starts.  Then he'll make some changes/adjustments and look like the pitcher he once was for a few games, then just when I begin to believe in him again it all blows up again. 

    That's usually an indication that a player is "figuring it out" and eventually that player becomes the "good" player he looks like during his good streaks. I keep thinking that's going to happen with Lester because I don't want to give up on a player who is THAT GOOD. 

    In the meantime, this certainly is trying!

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to S5's comment:

    Here's why it's so difficult to figure out what Lester is.  It's because he's STREAKY!  He'll absolutely stink the place up for a few starts.  Then he'll make some changes/adjustments and look like the pitcher he once was for a few games, then just when I begin to believe in him again it all blows up again. 

    That's usually an indication that a player is "figuring it out" and eventually that player becomes the "good" player he looks like during his good streaks. I keep thinking that's going to happen with Lester because I don't want to give up on a player who is THAT GOOD. 

    In the meantime, this certainly is trying!

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.




    Over the last 3 years his average FB has gone from 94.3MPH to 93.3MPH. Thats not that much of a velocity loss, but nothing like topping out at 96-98 when he let it fly at 24-25yrs old. Now he hits 95MPH every so often and sits about 93-94. He cant get away with mistake pitches as much anymore and is having to rely more on location. Hes figuring that out right now. Yes, its certainly trying on us fans. But hes obviously working hard to figure it out and has made some strides. To say he doesnt belong on an MLB roster is ridiculous.

     

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