Lester

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    It's a shame, but I have no confidence whatsoever in Jon anymore.  I feel better going into a game now with Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, even Aceves on the mound.  I always have hopes for Lester's outings, but too many times those hopes have been dashed. 



    All you have to do is look at his numbers HFX. We don't need Farrell's assessment. He is supporting his players, as he should. I agree with you: any of those guys inspires more confidence. It would be a bold but correct move to put Lester in the pen IMO and let Ace try starting again.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Lester is still healthy and still throws decent heat (95mph) along with a decent curve, changeup, and cutter.  But, for whatever reason, he is just not getting guys out, and last night was a perfect example because the Mariners are not a good hitting team but tagged him for 5 in 5 innings.  Relatedly, he threw an awful lot of pitches to get thru those 5 innings (and 2 in the 6th).  And, as Peter Abraham points out, he gave up a dinger on an 0-2 count. 

    I still think he is fixable and offer three things for him to work on (I have little pitching expertise):  1) relying less on the fastball and cutter;  2) making sure he is not tipping his pitches or tipping them by using the same pitches in certain situations; 3) working on his control. 



    You're wrong. He doesn't have a decent curve or change up, and that is his problem. They just sit on fastball cutter and sit on one speed...easy for a good hitter

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to georom4's comment:

    i was timing his pitches...he was throwing about 2 pitches per minute at most...usually a pitch every 40 seconds....someone explain to me why this was allowed....how can a pitcher have command of his pitches if he is throwing one pitch a minute? Lester needs to move his butt and get into a groove...

    As always - 100% correct!

     



    The faster he pitches the faster he will get hammered Geo Wink

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

     

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

     

    Lester is still healthy and still throws decent heat (95mph) along with a decent curve, changeup, and cutter.  But, for whatever reason, he is just not getting guys out, and last night was a perfect example because the Mariners are not a good hitting team but tagged him for 5 in 5 innings.  Relatedly, he threw an awful lot of pitches to get thru those 5 innings (and 2 in the 6th).  And, as Peter Abraham points out, he gave up a dinger on an 0-2 count. 

    I still think he is fixable and offer three things for him to work on (I have little pitching expertise):  1) relying less on the fastball and cutter;  2) making sure he is not tipping his pitches or tipping them by using the same pitches in certain situations; 3) working on his control. 

     

     



    You're wrong. He doesn't have a decent curve or change up, and that is his problem. They just sit on fastball cutter and sit on one speed...easy for a good hitter

     

     




    That is backed up by looking at Fangraphs except that his change is still above average. The value of his fastball is actually not bad, above average despite losing velocity. However, his curve and cutter have taken a nosedive. He overuses the cutter and cannot locate it. Regardless of how you break it down, what you see with Lester is what we have got for nearly two years. Its not likely to change.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:



    This leaves you in a pretty good spot, doesn't it?   You've told us that while Lester and Cherrington may know more about this entire situation than everyone here on the board, we can't believe what they say.  The only one we can believe is YOU because YOU tell the truth. 

     

     

    Pfft.

    An old saying comes to mind immediately.  "We don't see things as they are.  We see things as WE are."

     



    Thats BS S5 and you know it. What makes you think that you are entitled to the truth from those guys? Farrell is not going to badmouth his players to the media. You KNOW that is the case. He is not Valentine. We each can form our own opinions about Lester without the propaganda perpetrated by his boss. You don't have to believe me. I could not care less if you do. Eventually I think you will admit that THIS is the real Lester.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Here's my problem with your whole premise.  It's basically flawed.

    Given it to be a fact that John Farrell will not make disparging comments about his players to the press that does NOT mean that everything he says about his player is a lie.  Some things may be, some things may be the truth.

     

    "We don't see things as they are.  We see things as WE are."

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to ADG's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    Honestly, as I mentioned in March, you would think by now if Lester hadn't turned it around that we could safely bet this is who he is.  I myself had named July 15th as the day I could safely pass judgment, and I believe today he is exactly the same pitcher we have seen since August 2011. He isn't doing well.

    Would you not agree that if he realed off 3 straight solid starts that it was more likely an oddity and that he will have far more streaks of going 5 and surrendering 5?

     




    I understand your points, and they are valid. Personally, Im just not ready to give up on him yet. He just threw 2 solid games and then last night happened. Maybe he has lost it. I just dont think so. Not yet. I said I would wait til the year is over and evaluate his full year. He has an option to consider next year at a good price. Im just going to let this year play out...

     

     

     



    Keep in mind a few things when you watch Lester:

     

     

    He has lost 4-5 MPH off his fastball.

    A cutter is his supposed out pitch.

    When a pitcher nibbles like Jon Lester does, he doesn't have the pelota's to go after hitters. 94 pitches after 4 IP. Really?

    After bad outings like last night, he comments that he thought he had good stuff. If he thought he had good stuff, there is something terribly wrong with his perspective.

    It was a game where they needed a big game. He game them nothing.

     




    you might wanna chech your stats. over the last 3 years Lester has gone from an average FB of 94.3 to 93.3...Thats 1MPH over the last 3 years. I went to a lot of games he pitched in 2012 and Lester was consistently at 94MPH and hitting 95. He was consistently at 93-94 his last start and hit 95 a few times.

     

    He has a great change up as well. Hes relied on the cutter too much.

    I agree that I dont really care for his comments.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:



    This leaves you in a pretty good spot, doesn't it?   You've told us that while Lester and Cherrington may know more about this entire situation than everyone here on the board, we can't believe what they say.  The only one we can believe is YOU because YOU tell the truth. 

     

     

    Pfft.

    An old saying comes to mind immediately.  "We don't see things as they are.  We see things as WE are."

     



    Thats BS S5 and you know it. What makes you think that you are entitled to the truth from those guys? Farrell is not going to badmouth his players to the media. You KNOW that is the case. He is not Valentine. We each can form our own opinions about Lester without the propaganda perpetrated by his boss. You don't have to believe me. I could not care less if you do. Eventually I think you will admit that THIS is the real Lester.

     



    Here's my problem with your whole premise.  It's basically flawed.

    Given it to be a fact that John Farrell will not make disparging comments about his players to the press that does NOT mean that everything he says about his player is a lie.  Some things may be, some things may be the truth.

     

    "We don't see things as they are.  We see things as WE are."

    [/QUOTE]


    So we admit that Farrell will tell the truth sometimes and will, appropriately, stretch the truth sometimes to support his players. If someone tells the truth only sometimes and knowingly does not at other times I cannot believe anything he says on the subject, which is fine by me. He SHOULD support his players, right up until the time they are demoted. So we are left to make our own conclusions. I watch Lester and I look at his statistics. What statistics are you using to support your opinion that he will turn it around? I have presented you with his stats over the last two years and over the last 52 starts (17-19, ERA 4.74). If you do not use objective evidence to support your opinion then IMO its not as strong as an opinion that does. Use whatever group of data you choose.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lester

    Deleted...nonproductive

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:



    So we admit that Farrell will tell the truth sometimes and will, appropriately, stretch the truth sometimes to support his players. If someone tells the truth only sometimes and knowingly does not at other times I cannot believe anything he says on the subject, which is fine by me. He SHOULD support his players, right up until the time they are demoted. So we are left to make our own conclusions. I watch Lester and I look at his statistics. What statistics are you using to support your opinion that he will turn it around? I have presented you with his stats over the last two years and over the last 52 starts (17-19, ERA 4.74). If you do not use objective evidence to support your opinion then IMO its not as strong as an opinion that does. Use whatever group of data you choose.

     

     

     

    So if someone once said, "I sometimes say things I don't believe just to see what the reaction will be", you shouldn't believe anything they say?

    Think carefully before you answer that.  Smile



    I do not believe Farrell means everything he says. He is not stupid. He knows Lester's stats, yet recently said that Lester is "a good pitcher". Is he? He should support his players even if it means sugar coating the truth, or even stretching it. If you think he is, what data are you using to support your opinion? You don't need objective data, but it does strengthen your position in a debate if you have some.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lester

    I'm going to walk away from this because one of us knows enough to do that before they destroy someone's posting reputation. 

    And being right isn't that important to me.  Smile

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to S5's comment:

    I'm going to walk away from this because one of us knows enough to do that before they destroy someone's posting reputation. 

    And being right isn't that important to me.  Smile

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.



    No problem. In my mind it was just an honest debate. Since I have no posting reputation worthy of defending I will also bow out. See you in the game chatroom.

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Lester

    It isn't the velocity for Laster!

     

    2010 American League Cy Young Award 1. Felix Hernandez, SEA 2. David Price, TB 3. CC Sabathia, NYY 4. Jon Lester, BOS 5. Jered Weaver, LAA  

    Here's the average fastball velocity they all threw in 2010, courtesy of Brooks Baseball: Hernandez: 95.1 Price: 96.0 Sabathia: 94.3 Lester: 94.3
    Weaver: 90.8  

    And here's the average fastball velocity this year: Hernandez: 92.6 Price: 94.6 Sabathia: 91.5 Lester: 93.3
    Weaver: 87.4

    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2013/07/the-takeaway-lester-looking-less-and-less-like-an-ace.html

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    It isn't the velocity for Laster!

     

    2010 American League Cy Young Award 1. Felix Hernandez, SEA 2. David Price, TB 3. CC Sabathia, NYY 4. Jon Lester, BOS 5. Jered Weaver, LAA  

    Here's the average fastball velocity they all threw in 2010, courtesy of Brooks Baseball: Hernandez: 95.1 Price: 96.0 Sabathia: 94.3 Lester: 94.3
    Weaver: 90.8  

    And here's the average fastball velocity this year: Hernandez: 92.6 Price: 94.6 Sabathia: 91.5 Lester: 93.3
    Weaver: 87.4

    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2013/07/the-takeaway-lester-looking-less-and-less-like-an-ace.html

     



    Although his loss of velocity does contribute to his inadequate performance, its not the primary culprit. That, IMO, is his overreliance on the cutter and his inability to locate his pitches. I am sure his confidence level is in the tank as well. He is our FIFTH best SP now, and consideration should be given to moving him to the bullpen.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    Lester is still healthy and still throws decent heat (95mph) along with a decent curve, changeup, and cutter.  But, for whatever reason, he is just not getting guys out, and last night was a perfect example because the Mariners are not a good hitting team but tagged him for 5 in 5 innings.  Relatedly, he threw an awful lot of pitches to get thru those 5 innings (and 2 in the 6th).  And, as Peter Abraham points out, he gave up a dinger on an 0-2 count. 

    I still think he is fixable and offer three things for him to work on (I have little pitching expertise):  1) relying less on the fastball and cutter;  2) making sure he is not tipping his pitches or tipping them by using the same pitches in certain situations; 3) working on his control. 

     



    You're wrong. He doesn't have a decent curve or change up, and that is his problem. They just sit on fastball cutter and sit on one speed...easy for a good hitter

     




    He has a very good change up thats getting better. Problem is, hes still relying on a cutter that hes having issues with. Not sure what your watching, but that change up is very good. Heres a good article on why silly ideas like Lester to the pen will NEVER, nor should happen. Hes evolving as a pitcher and is adusting. Its not an overnight process and he didnt start the change until this year when farrell and Nieves arrived on the scene. So someone can say its been since 2012, but they would be wrong. His troubles started then, but the adjustments didnt start until this year.

    With that said, people cant, nor should expect him to just adjust without any bumps in the road. To give up on him or just throw him in the pen because hes having some issues adjusting and evolving as a pitcher this year is ridiculous at best. His option should, and probably will be picked up this off season. lester may not be an "Ace" anymore, but he is quite capable of still being a TOTR starter. Im glad the Sox have some more sense than some on this board. (not talking directly to you).

    http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2013/07/time_for_a_changeup_why_jon_lester_must_evolve_in_order

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    It isn't the velocity for Laster!

     

    2010 American League Cy Young Award 1. Felix Hernandez, SEA 2. David Price, TB 3. CC Sabathia, NYY 4. Jon Lester, BOS 5. Jered Weaver, LAA  

    Here's the average fastball velocity they all threw in 2010, courtesy of Brooks Baseball: Hernandez: 95.1 Price: 96.0 Sabathia: 94.3 Lester: 94.3
    Weaver: 90.8  

    And here's the average fastball velocity this year: Hernandez: 92.6 Price: 94.6 Sabathia: 91.5 Lester: 93.3
    Weaver: 87.4

    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2013/07/the-takeaway-lester-looking-less-and-less-like-an-ace.html

     




    This is what Ive been trying to tell people!! thank You!!. Lester's FB is only down by 1MPH over the last 3 years, so I wish people would stoop with the big loss of velocity.

    Lester is at an age to where he will probably lose a little more on the FB, but to suggest that he has lost 3-4 MPH is silly. 1MPH over the last 3 years. He was hitting 95MPH the other night and was consistently around 93-94MPH.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    It isn't the velocity for Laster!

     

    2010 American League Cy Young Award 1. Felix Hernandez, SEA 2. David Price, TB 3. CC Sabathia, NYY 4. Jon Lester, BOS 5. Jered Weaver, LAA  

    Here's the average fastball velocity they all threw in 2010, courtesy of Brooks Baseball: Hernandez: 95.1 Price: 96.0 Sabathia: 94.3 Lester: 94.3
    Weaver: 90.8  

    And here's the average fastball velocity this year: Hernandez: 92.6 Price: 94.6 Sabathia: 91.5 Lester: 93.3
    Weaver: 87.4

    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2013/07/the-takeaway-lester-looking-less-and-less-like-an-ace.html

     



    The difference with Lester is his inability to adjust over time. Nieves said it in the paper today. He keeps relying on a crappy cutter.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to ADG's comment:

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

     

    It isn't the velocity for Laster!

     

    2010 American League Cy Young Award 1. Felix Hernandez, SEA 2. David Price, TB 3. CC Sabathia, NYY 4. Jon Lester, BOS 5. Jered Weaver, LAA  

    Here's the average fastball velocity they all threw in 2010, courtesy of Brooks Baseball: Hernandez: 95.1 Price: 96.0 Sabathia: 94.3 Lester: 94.3
    Weaver: 90.8  

    And here's the average fastball velocity this year: Hernandez: 92.6 Price: 94.6 Sabathia: 91.5 Lester: 93.3
    Weaver: 87.4

    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2013/07/the-takeaway-lester-looking-less-and-less-like-an-ace.html

     

     



    The difference with Lester is his inability to adjust over time. Nieves said it in the paper today. He keeps relying on a crappy cutter.

     




    Thats just part of the adjustments. Hes been throwing his change up more, but sometimes still relys on the cutter. Hes realizing thaqt its not as effective and is starting to change things up. I wouldnt give up on him as easily as some here are. Lester to the pen is a joke. There is no manager/coach or GM that would make that move, and for obvious reasons.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    There is no objective evidence whatsoever that Lester has made ANY adjustments at all. He continues to stink and is not only not an ace but barely a #4 SP. If anyone can produce some numbers that show improvement I would love to see them. He is the worst SP in our current rotation, and he is too stubborn to change, apparently. He has, IMO, earned a demotion to the bullpen so someone else can see if they can do better. I realize this is not going to happen, but I think it would probably improve the team and possibly be such a rude awakening for Lester that he would realize that his stuff is no longer as good as he previously thought it was. I remember him insisting he was making good pitches in recent games, but those "good pitches" were being hit out of the ballpark. All of us wish he were better; some here believe he will be better despite lack of objective evidence of improvement in nearly two years. If you THINK he IS better, I have an island to sell you.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Lester

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    There is no objective evidence whatsoever that Lester has made ANY adjustments at all. He continues to stink and is not only not an ace but barely a #4 SP. If anyone can produce some numbers that show improvement I would love to see them. He is the worst SP in our current rotation, and he is too stubborn to change, apparently. He has, IMO, earned a demotion to the bullpen so someone else can see if they can do better. I realize this is not going to happen, but I think it would probably improve the team and possibly be such a rude awakening for Lester that he would realize that his stuff is no longer as good as he previously thought it was. I remember him insisting he was making good pitches in recent games, but those "good pitches" were being hit out of the ballpark. All of us wish he were better; some here believe he will be better despite lack of objective evidence of improvement in nearly two years. If you THINK he IS better, I have an island to sell you.



    Give it up, Pumpsie.  I want the Sox to trade Brock Holt for Miguel Cabrera, but since that is about as realistic as moving Lester to the bullpen, I'm not going to post it anywhere.  

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Lester

    I think Holt for Cabrera would be a great trade for us. Thats what you weren't going to post anywhere, right? Yet here it is! And I think that putting Lester in the bullpen is also a great idea. Whats good about this forum is that we can post hypothetical ideas like that if we want to, don't you think?

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Lester

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    I think Holt for Cabrera would be a great trade for us. Thats what you weren't going to post anywhere, right? Yet here it is! And I think that putting Lester in the bullpen is also a great idea. Whats good about this forum is that we can post hypothetical ideas like that if we want to, don't you think?

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE



    Hypothetical ideas are great for this forum, but when someone posts the same idea multiple times even though there is no realistic chance whatsoever of it happening, it gets old quick.  You think Lester is terrible and manipulate stats to make your case.  Nothing wrong with that.  Some other people might say that Lester's 6-0 start to the season was a huge reason why this team got off to a hot start and gained a ton of confidence that they've continued to build on.  Then again, you are a Debbie Downer type who called the season "over" in May, so I don't expect you to see it that way.  Again, what is the point of posting something over and over again that isn't going to happen?  

     
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