Got curious and I decided to look at the pitchers (obviously not a pretty picture. While I realize that statistics are not the be all and end all, I have often looked at hits and innings pitched.  Clearly based on what we saw these stats may not mean much, but here goes anyway.

 

There are some pitchers that we know will be back, because they are the teams best maybe best of a bad lot, but you have to start somewhere.  In bold are the ones with positive.

 

Will be back

Lester 205/216

Buchholz 189/187

Tazawa 43/37

Bailey 15/21

 

Lester isn’t going anywhere.  It is more important that he get back to what he has been.  Buchholz is their best now.  Tazawa did very well.  They aren’t about to give up on Bailey this quickly.

 

Probably be back, but then again

Doubront 161/162

Bard 59/60

Morales 76/64

Miller 40/28

 

Doubront came a long way, I think they need him in there somewhere.  Bard was a disaster, but he is only 27 and I would not give up just yet.  Miller had a decent yea.  Everyone likes Morales “stuff”.  Might try to trade from  this group.

 

Interesting possibilities

Mortenson 40/29

Breslow 19/13

Beato 6/5

 

None of them makes anyone go wow, but then did anyone get all excited about the O’s BP before the season started?  If they can get something in trade, sure, but…..

 

Questions abound

Melancon 45/45

Atchison 50/41

Hill 19/17

 

Are you ready to throw Melancon away.  He did pitch a bit better late.  Atchison keeps hanging around.  Hill had some good moments.

 

Then there is Lackey and like it or not, he will on the team.

 

Now that is 15 pitchers.  10 have positive IP/hits.  All four of the negatives above will likely be back.  Clearly not everyone above will be on the team as there are only 11 or 12 spots and I am assuming that they will be bringing in new blood.  If they don’t…….

 

Gone are Matsuzaka, Aceves, Padilla, Cook and a lot of others

 

Lets keep one thing in mind.  The Red Sox are not going to be a playoff team next year and trying to go for the quick fix is crazy.  Hopefully they bottomed out and next year will be an improvement.  One thing that struck me is that some teams of which little was expected got better as the season progressed.  They had little or no expectations and went with their youth to build for another year. 

 

Washington was expected to be better, but no one expected wire to wire.  Oakland was not exactly high on the list and see what they did and of course there are the Orioles.  Cincy was another somewhat surprising team.  Teams that got better late, Seattle, San Diego, Milwaukee.  They have set themselves up for the future.   Seattle is a good case in point.  They were terrible at the beginning, and had no place to go but up.  They went with the kids and got them some major league experience.  Keep in mind that it was not until The Deal that the Red Sox waved the white flag.  At that point there were only 40 or so games left.  Granted it got bad, but at some point, there might have been improvement like with Seattle.  They need to commit to rebuilding and developing thei younger assets.  If they do that, it may not take too long to get back.  I am willing to write off 2013 as a development year and hopefully they can be competitive.  Then maybe in 2014, they could be MOST, not all of the way back.

Feel free to tear this apart.

 

In response to natepioneer1's comment:

I think the rotation Will be Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, and Doubront. Most likely they will look to trade or look at the FA guys for another arm and give 2-3 guys already here a shot at the 5th spot as well.

Lester, I believe, is not the guy we saw this year. In the 4 years prior to 2012 he has a 65-32 record and an ERA of 3.30 topping 200+ IP a year. Things got bad and just snowballed. Im sure he learned a lot about himself this year and I believe he will come back strong in 2013. Buchholz needs to stay healthy for once and top 200IP. Both of the two can give this team over 30 wins if they pitch to their potential. Both are just entering their prime and there is no reason they cant do this.

Lackey will be back and could surprise.

Tazawa has come back strong from TJS and could compete for a spot in the rotation. I have no issue with that or leaving him as a set-up 7-8th inning guy. Maybe even a closer one day.

Doubie had a solid year with a very strong finish. I look for 200IP from him next year and he also has what it takes for 15+ wins and a lot of K's.

Bailey will be the starting closer in 2013 and it will be his job to lose.

I like what I saw from Melancon and Beato. Both are still young and dont hit arbitration until 2014. Melancon proved he can handle pressure situation like in NY the other night. He looks to have a more aggressive attitude out there now. Both are keepers IMO.

The Sox currently have too many LHP in the pen. Breslow, Hill, Miller, Morales. I think Breslow should stay and believe one or two of Miller, Hill, and Morales will be traded this winter. They dont need 4 LHP in the pen.

Not sure if Mortensen or Aceves will be back. To me, the are both on the bubble along with Hill Morales and Miller, but the latter 3 for different reasons.

Atch has been steady throughout his time in Boston. Has age finally caught up with him? A ST invite would not upset me.

Daniel Bard is still young and should be given the opportunity to see if he can regain his velocity again. He can be a very valuable piece of the 2013 Bullpen if he can do this.

Def gone are Dice, Padilla, and Cook.

Well, thats where I stand as far as what I feel about our pitching situation.

Weve got a ton of in-house talent to fill out the Bullpen, although there will be a bunch of ST invites from outside the organization and from the farm system as well.

I think they need to acquire one solid starter...They will also seek depth moves like Cook and Stewert...

What they do not need to do is go out and sign a long term free agent contract to acquire a veteran picther. If someone like McCarthy could be obtained without mortgaging the farm, great, but barring that the only major move worth making would be to get a veteran starter for a year or two at the most. Paying 10-14 mill per is fine in that case... That way the rotation could very well be Lester; Bucholtz; FA pick-up; Doubront; Lackey with De La Rosa and Morales always possibilities. Depending on the quality of the pick-up, if Lester and Bucholtz return to some semblance of the past and Lackey can at least go out and make 25-30 starts and go 10-12 or 11-11 or something they might be in decent shape... In terms of relievers - Bailey, Atchison, Breslow, Morales, Tazawa, Miller comprise the heart of the bullpen with Melancon, Hill, Beato, Bard, and Mortensen looming as possibilities. Health is a huge concern for some of these guys so better to have too many arms than not enough. They really aren't in bad shape in terms of pitching - not a championship contending staff maybe, but good enough for where this team is right now. I'd like to see them acquire one proven set up guy and as stated above there is an aundance of quality lefthanded relievers on this roster and depending on health a t least one or two fothem could be moved. No way Aceves, Cook, Padilla,  or Dice-K return. This is a team that is (or should be) all about young talent and moving forward. 

The more interesting decisions obviously involve re-signing their own FA everyday players (Ortiz; Ross); what do with ellsbury; and then depending on what those moves are, where you find quality players in LF; RF; 1B and DH as right now you literally have no middle of the line-up. Lastly, the SS situation is an interesting one. Rolling with Iglesias or platooning him with someone likes Aviles? Is Ciriaco the utility guy? Again, whether it's bringing back their own guys or going out an filling holes, paying more for fewer years seems like the right way to go. There's enough money to spend on a decent left fielder and first baseman AND re-sign Ortiz and Ross (if that's the way they want to go) AND acquire a few pitchers. As far as Papi goes I'd go two years at the most 25 million with some incentives based on being in the line-up, but I also see the logic of just walking away and trying to get that offense in other places.

Consider that the team is currently centered on Pedroia; Middlebrooks; and Salty moving forward and that's a pretty weak everyday core. Re-signing ellsbury would help, but is he too fragile to depend on? And just how much is he going to demand. 6 at 100 is one thing. 7 at 150 is a whole other. If it's the latter or something like it I say walk away. If it's 16-18 per I say make the move. If they really aren't going to get him back, however, making a move and acquiring young talent is the way to go - they aren't winning next year anyway. If they had an actual shot at doing something significant maybe a different story. 

If the team wants to contend again in the near future it is likely that at some point they'll have to pony up big bucks for a player or two, but that should be down the road when they are actually a piece or two away from getting there and making sure it's the right guy for the price and this intense market is clearly of utmost importance. As we've seen with Renteria; Lugo; Drew; Matusaka; Lackey; Crawford; Lackey et al bad big money moves can cripple a franchise. 

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Need character veterans

Ideally, I'd like to see Buch as our #2 or 3 starter and Lester as our #4 starter, but that will be hard to do. I'd like to see us try to do the next best thing: obtain 2 younger starters with 3+ years of team control that project to be solid #2 or 3 type starters giving us 4 decent starters and Doubront, Morales, Tazawa, and others left over to fight for the #5 slot or long relief (if they are not traded as part of a deal to get the 2 starters previously mentioned).

Getting an "ace" this year seems remote, andf I do not see Greinke as "the guy" to go all out for. Cliff Lee is too old for a team looking at 2014 and beyong as the point of serious ring contention. Felix would cost all top our prospects and a large sum of money in salary. Making a few modest steps this winter and maybe a big move this July or next winter seems to be the more likely path to becomming winners again.

Sign Shields don't see Rays giving him 9M,

Also go for Zack Greinke, Anibel Sanchez, Francisco Liriano, Kyle Lohse, Jonathan Broxton, J.P. Howell and Derek Lowe...won't get them all I know but they are the best of FAs  out there

Yes I have Lowe there just think he would be great out of the BP

Keepers:

Clay, Lackey, Lester, Melancon, Bailey, Doubrant, Tazawa, Breslow, I don't see anything good in the rest of what they have.

Lester, Bucholtz, Droubmont, Lackey (suprised that you all forgot about him), Morales, Melancon, Bailey, Beato, Breslow, Morales, and Tawaza will all more likely to be back.

Hill and Atchinson are still on the roster for the 2013 season.  Not sure what to do with them since they are both an often injure proned pitcher.

More likely to be gone via trade: Bard, Miller, Mortenson 

More likely not to resign: Dice K, Padilla, Cook

Right now I have 11 pitchers in the first paragraph, and Boston need one good starting pitcher.  I can foresee them getting one via trade.   Ben C. shouldnt have a hard time finding one cuz he already have alot of young players to use as a trade bait!! 

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In response to GoUconn13's comment:

I hope that Lackey has a good season next year.  I realize that a lot of Red Sox fans don't like him, but we have to be optimistic about him.  If Bard has a good spring training, I don't see any reason why he won't be back next season.  He was always a good relief pitcher and hopefully, he will be again.  Padilla was good for most of the season and I don't see any reason why they won't resign him. 

In response to southpaw777's comment:

In response to GoUconn13's comment:

I mentioned Lackey and I agree with you   Not so sure they give up on Bard though.  He was so good before last September and he is just turning 27.  I can just see him going somewhere else and getting it back together.

I hope they don't panic with him or Lester.

 

 

Do we really have faith in any of these pitchers??

In response to Iceman4's comment:

well, i like tazawa. the rest is just a crap shoot. emphasis on the word CRAP.

I like that people are not freaking out and that there is a realization that this is not getting turned around in a year.  That using their newfound "wealth" would be showing that they did not learn anything.

The bottom line is that they probably have a number of spots all set.

Starters will be: Lester, Buch, Lackey, Doubront to begin the season.  They will get a fifth from Tazawa, Morales, possibly Mortenson, possibly De La Rosa, proabably someone ouside the system.  That's 9 guys for 5 slots.

Bailey will be the closer until further notice.  They need to see what he can do when healthy.  Bard will be in the bullpen somewhere, as will either Tazawa, Morales (both are 26), probably Breslow, possibly Mortenson, possibly Beato and a left or two.  Miller is intriguing.  He was the 8th guy picked in his draft and he has improved.  He is another that I can see getting it together finally if goes elsewhere and the Red Sox really regetting giving him up.  He is the same age as Lester and Buchholz.

This is not an old pitching staff.  Two years from now Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, Owens, Workman start to work their way in.  A couple of good drafts keep the pipeline going.  Yes by 2014 and 2015, they will have to deal with Lester and Buchholz contractwise, but if the team is on its way back up, they can cross that bridge at that time.

exactly.......I"m not saying we don't have good pitchers..........I'm just disgusted right now that we don't have "game changers".........we have some good but "mediocre" talent.

In response to Iceman4's comment:

one can not be good and mediocre at the same time. of course, in today's pro sports, mediocre is the new good.

I like the fact that we will keep buying bricks for $200 and paying $75 a ticket while cheering the fact that ownership is about to pocket this money. Long term contracts are always dreadful, the one handed out to Manny Ramirez crippled this franchise for years. Cudos to Big Ben (probably hired because his name reminded ownership of their favorite country rather than his 14 years of mediocrity) for stepping up and announcing the Red Sox won't contend next season. With only 100 million to spend that is totally understandable. Better they save their money to spend on Liverpool poorly than alot a budget of 200 million and overpay the best available players substantially to give the best shot to win. I'm sure Matt Barnes will be the next phenom like Michael Bowden, Lars Andersen and the other untouchables. After all, this organization has always found pitching from within like Pedro, DLowe and Curt Schilling. Andrew Bailey has also seemed like the right fit for this team. Excited for next year. Hope the sellout streak continues or i would be really upset. If I see Larry in Denver will be sure to give him a giant hug and thank him for trying.

In response to mryazz's comment:

agreed completely, more accurate reflections would state we have mediocre untalent. There is nay a pitcher on this team that would be above a #3 on a powerhouse contender.

10 posts a year huh smuldy? Thanks for the input...

Lester, Buch, Dubront, Lackey and a pitcher to be named later is next year's rotation. 

Unless they get rid of Lackey and pick up 2 quality starters they won't be any good next year.

In response to DirtyWaterLover's comment:

I have posted many times but will repeat it, Red Sox fans need to give Lackey a chance to prove he can be a good pitcher.  Many pitchers are much better after having tommy john surgery.  We need to be optimistic until we see how he does during spring training.  I am hoping that he has a good year next season and becomes one of the top of the rotation pitchers.  The Red Sox can't/won't trade him until he pitches a few games.  No one is going to want to trade for a pitcher that is just recovering from tommy john surgery. 

I think the posters are under estimating De La Rosa. His ceiling and probability are higher than any other pitcher in the current system, including Barnes.   

I think the biggest aquisition the team makes should be the pitching coach. If Lester wins 18 games, Bucholz 18 games and a healthy Lackey 15 games, which they have all done before, this team is "in it" next year. There is also an abundance of young talent on the brink, with Morales, Doubie, De La Rosa all having taken their first year jitters and lumps, and now ready to harness thier unbelievable talent. Bard, Melancon, Tazawa and Bailey would also benefit from the proper pitching coach.

I liked Padilla in his role this year. After the break, he was misused, mostly out of neccesity. He has a rubber arm, and can start, middle or close. I also liked Aceves before he checked out mentally. Obviously, V is gone, can Aceves be salvaged?

Perhaps the question to be asking is; "Is Farrel disenchanted enough with Toronto to come back as the pitching coach?"

There needs to be a picthing philosophy starting at the top that permeates down to Barnes, Ranaudo, Stolmy, Owens, Webster...and further down the line to Johnson, Light and Buttrey.

These young arms are the envy of baseball. These guys are power pitchers all topping out at 95 plus. This is where the team makes it destiny for the next 10 year run.

I could live with Bogar as the manager starting tomorrow if the SOx could get the right pitching coach   

I think the posters are under estimating De La Rosa.

 

Maybe we are just over estimating Barnes & Webster.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Rev Moon,

Leave it to you to be the voice of wit!

I do think Barnes and Webster are legit, and will be in Boston. I simply feel De La Rosa is more of a sure thing, with ace potential. I have only seen him pitch once, pre TJ surgery, and he was on numerous guns at 100 thru 6 innings. Wicked Slider, above average change. His fastball came in on right handers and he reminded me more than anyone else I have seen... of Strasburg. His control needs improving, but he has thrown less than 300 innings, and is only 23 years old.

His physical appearance, and fast ball look, dare I say, like Pedro.