Let's talk WMB....

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:


     


    The difference between Middy and Napoli is that Middy has never had a good OBP, even in the minors. I don't really expect him to ever get near .350. I'm OK with a .315 OBP, if you hit 30 jacks and knock in 90+. I think Middy can do that, but he may not either. His poor fielding tilts the balance for me. QUOTE] object HTMLDivElement]


     


    oon, I feel like you are living in the past and not willing to budge on this one.  


     


    First, if you were to wipe away an admittedly amateur-hour beginning to his career at third and just pick up this season, can you really say he is that poor a fioelder?  I think he has looked solid, at the very least.  Vastly improved in any case.  But that is subjective, so lets let it go.


     


    He was decent fielding at 3B in 2012. He has looked poor since then. I do not see even a slight improvement, let alone "vast".


     


    It's not subjective. The numbers don't lie. True, the injuries might have played a part, but I will not pretend he has been a good fielder just because he has a Sox uniform on.


     


    Second, from the time of his recall last year through the playoffs, his OBP was north of .350, and this year he is at .344 despite his .215 average.  I think we can glean from this that he worked out some issues at Pawticket last summer and emerged a more canny hitter.  In any case, his post recall numbers do not reflect your insistence that he is a poor OBP guy.


     


    He has pretty much always been a poor OBP guy, except for tiny stretches here and there. Those are the facts. Like them or not.


     


    MLB: .299 OBP


     


    Playoffs: .250 OBP


     


    AAA: .301


     


    Minors: .331


     




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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:


    [QUOTE]


     


     


     


     


    The difference between Middy and Napoli is that Middy has never had a good OBP, even in the minors. I don't really expect him to ever get near .350. I'm OK with a .315 OBP, if you hit 30 jacks and knock in 90+. I think Middy can do that, but he may not either. His poor fielding tilts the balance for me. QUOTE] object HTMLDivElement]


     


     


     


    oon, I feel like you are living in the past and not willing to budge on this one.  


     


     


     


    First, if you were to wipe away an admittedly amateur-hour beginning to his career at third and just pick up this season, can you really say he is that poor a fioelder?  I think he has looked solid, at the very least.  Vastly improved in any case.  But that is subjective, so lets let it go.


     


     


     


    He was decent fielding at 3B in 2012. He has looked poor since then. I do not see even a slight improvement, let alone "vast".


     


     


     


    It's not subjective. The numbers don't lie. True, the injuries might have played a part, but I will not pretend he has been a good fielder just because he has a Sox uniform on.


     


     


     


    Second, from the time of his recall last year through the playoffs, his OBP was north of .350, and this year he is at .344 despite his .215 average.  I think we can glean from this that he worked out some issues at Pawticket last summer and emerged a more canny hitter.  In any case, his post recall numbers do not reflect your insistence that he is a poor OBP guy.


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    He has pretty much always been a poor OBP guy, except for tiny stretches here and there. Those are the facts. Like them or not.


     


     


     


    MLB: .299 OBP


     


     


     


    Playoffs: .250 OBP


     


     


     


    AAA: .301


     


     


     


    Minors: .331


     


     


     




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    [/QUOTE]


    If he makes all the plays and slugs 500 (ie 70 XHB) I'll take.  Esp since he's a league minimum guy.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    it's also worth mentioning that he's a pretty good baserunner


     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    If he makes all the plays and slugs 500 (ie 70 XHB) I'll take. Esp since he's a league minimum guy.


    Agreed, but do you expect .500+?.


    MLB: .456


    Playoffs: .240


    AAA: .476


    Minors: .453


    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

     


    He has pretty much always been a poor OBP guy, except for tiny stretches here and there. Those are the facts. Like them or not.


    MLB: .299 OBP


     


    Playoffs: .250 OBP


     


    AAA: .301


     


    Minors: .331


    [/QUOTE]



    Right, I get it.  But, young ballplayers grow in different dimensions at different times.  I am pointing to a trend since his recall last year.  I do not think this trend signifies that he has surely become a decent on-base guy, but I think it is worth considering.  If you are going to break out OBP numbers for minors, for playoffs, for major league experience, why would you not consider OBP post-recall?  The whole point of his demotion last year was for him to go down and work specifically on the elements of his swing that were so easily exploited, and his pitch recognition.  So, seems logical to me to analize if there was an improvement upon returning.  Lo and behold, there was.  I am not saying i am sold on his growth, but the facts are indeed the facts.


     


    And Moon, I agree with you.  Last year he was poor in the field.  But, seriously, this year, 2014, do you really think he has played a poor third base?


     




     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    Right, I get it. But, young ballplayers grow in different dimensions at different times. I am pointing to a trend since his recall last year. I do not think this trend signifies that he has surely become a decent on-base guy, but I think it is worth considering. If you are going to break out OBP numbers for minors, for playoffs, for major league experience, why would you not consider OBP post-recall? The whole point of his demotion last year was for him to go down and work specifically on the elements of his swing that were so easily exploited, and his pitch recognition. So, seems logical to me to analize if there was an improvement upon returning. Lo and behold, there was. I am not saying i am sold on his growth, but the facts are indeed the facts.


    Small sample size. That's why I didn't bring up post-recall. 


    The only reason i brought up the small sample playoff numbers was because someone said he was over .350 in the playoffs. He was at .250.


    OBP is the hardest thing to 'grow" once out of the minors. It's not impossible, and I have not given up on Middy. 



    And Moon, I agree with you. Last year he was poor in the field. But, seriously, this year, 2014, do you really think he has played a poor third base?


    Yes. Poor to me is bottom 10 out of the 30 3Bmen in MLB. He has not botched many plays, but he does not make many plays that are not routine.


    He is ranked 21st out of 24 in UZR/150 this year, and my own personal observations concur with the numbers. I have watched every single play (sometimes more than once) of every single game this year and for many years beforehand. I don't ever recall reading any glowing reports of his defense when he was a prospect. He looked okay in 2012. He has looked worse than 2012 since then, so I don't see the improvement people keep talking about. Maybe he looks slightly better than 2013, but since he still looks worse than 2012, I choose not to call him a player that is showing improvement.


    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from chickenandboose. Show chickenandboose's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    I should really stop buying Red Sox players t shirt... I bought an A Gon shirt and he got traded so I got a Middlebrooks shirt but looks like he will be traded soon.


    Something tells me I should hold off on that Boggy shirt... 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to chickenandboose's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    I should really stop buying Red Sox players t shirt... I bought an A Gon shirt and he got traded so I got a Middlebrooks shirt but looks like he will be traded soon.


     


    Something tells me I should hold off on that Boggy shirt... 


    [/QUOTE]


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    Hahaha.  Yeah man, I got a Gonzalez home jersey as soon as he signed.  Pretty useless now.  BUT, a blast to wear down the street at Dodger Stadium.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    Right, I get it. But, young ballplayers grow in different dimensions at different times. I am pointing to a trend since his recall last year. I do not think this trend signifies that he has surely become a decent on-base guy, but I think it is worth considering. If you are going to break out OBP numbers for minors, for playoffs, for major league experience, why would you not consider OBP post-recall? The whole point of his demotion last year was for him to go down and work specifically on the elements of his swing that were so easily exploited, and his pitch recognition. So, seems logical to me to analize if there was an improvement upon returning. Lo and behold, there was. I am not saying i am sold on his growth, but the facts are indeed the facts.


     


    Small sample size. That's why I didn't bring up post-recall. 


     


    The only reason i brought up the small sample playoff numbers was because someone said he was over .350 in the playoffs. He was at .250.


     


    OBP is the hardest thing to 'grow" once out of the minors. It's not impossible, and I have not given up on Middy. 






     



    And Moon, I agree with you. Last year he was poor in the field. But, seriously, this year, 2014, do you really think he has played a poor third base?


    Yes. Poor to me is bottom 10 out of the 30 3Bmen in MLB. He has not botched many plays, but he does not make many plays that are not routine


     


    He is ranked 21st out of 24 in UZR/150 this year, and my own personal observations concur with the numbers. I have watched every single play (sometimes more than once) of every single game this year and for many years beforehand. I don't ever recall reading any glowing reports of his defense when he was a prospect. He looked okay in 2012. He has looked worse than 2012 since then, so I don't see the improvement people keep talking about. Maybe he looks slightly better than 2013, but since he still looks worse than 2012, I choose not to call him a player that is showing improvement.


    Sox4eve



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    Well, we shall see.  I guess I can't argue UZR ratings, though they have never necessarily alignedwith my own personal observations.  But quantitative analysis is important, if inevitable flawed with defemse.  So, cool, his UZR/150 is low.  I will take that into consideration along with the fact that  I am watching him make some fantastic plays and botching less than his, yes, miserable 2013.


     


    And, yes, OBP is hard to grow once you are out of the minors.  But that is sort of my point.  He went BACK to the minors specifically to grow the aspects of his offense that generate higher OBP.  And, since his return to the majors, his OBP has grown.  Coincidence?  Or, cause and effect?  Yes, I agree the sample size is far too short to draw any conclusions and I get the skepticism.  But the trend is the trend and suggests a narrative that goes:  was a mess, went back to Pawtucket to put in work, work resulted in better plate discipline.  


    We shall see.  If my hunch that we should stick with young Will because he is going to be a vital cog by midseason is wrong, I will recognize the errors in my faulty analysis.  But,  WMB is going to be a solid two-way guy.  Not the all-star slugger some wild-eyed folks were wishing on a star for.  But solid.  This year.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to royf19's comment:


    In response to craze4sox's comment:


    Yup, we have both been thinking this may happen moon.  I personally can't let Middy off the hook as easy as some just because of his time spent on the DL.  He has pretty much been the same guy offensively for some time so outside of having a few little hot streaks not much has changed.  Waiting for him to improve offensively is almost as worrisome as expecting another trip to the DL at some point.OTE]


    He's had more and longer hot streaks than cold streaks.



    If that were true, Will Middlebrooks' career line would be better than .251/.299/.456/.755 in 185 games.

    Following the Kevin Youkilis trade in June 2012, Middlebrooks posted a .240/.276/416/.692 line in his remaining 35 games of 2012. Since then Middlebrooks has posted a similar .226/.281/.421/.702 line in 109 games.


    This season's increase in walks is encouraging, but we pretty much know what Middlebrooks is as he approaches his 26th birthday later this season.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

     


     


    This season's increase in walks is encouraging, but we pretty much know what Middlebrooks is as he approaches his 26th birthday later this season.


     


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    This is the part I don't agree with.  Granted, his performance has been what his performance has been.  But, he has been so up and down (in performance and locale).  he has not played a full year in the majors yet (as in one full uninterrupted season).  His part-year 2012 was blazing hot then ice cold.  His first part 2013 was as bad as it gets.  Then he went down for a long time.  When he came back up, he was much sounder at the plate.  And this year, he started injured.  I just don't see how we can say he is what he is and we know what he is.  I certainly do not know what he is yet.  Too roller coaster to establish any kind of clear pattern.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to royf19's comment:


     


    In response to craze4sox's comment:


     


    Yup, we have both been thinking this may happen moon.  I personally can't let Middy off the hook as easy as some just because of his time spent on the DL.  He has pretty much been the same guy offensively for some time so outside of having a few little hot streaks not much has changed.  Waiting for him to improve offensively is almost as worrisome as expecting another trip to the DL at some point.OTE]


     


    He's had more and longer hot streaks than cold streaks.


     



    If that were true, Will Middlebrooks' career line would be better than .251/.299/.456/.755 in 185 games.

    Following the Kevin Youkilis trade in June 2012, Middlebrooks posted a .240/.276/416/.692 line in his remaining 35 games of 2012. Since then Middlebrooks has posted a similar .226/.281/.421/.702 line in 109 games.


     


    This season's increase in walks is encouraging, but we pretty much know what Middlebrooks is as he approaches his 26th birthday later this season.


    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]


     


    Assuming that we do, and assuming he will not improve as he gets closer to age 27-28, as most players do, then the question would be, is it possible to get a career .752 3B for minimum wage?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    Following the Kevin Youkilis trade in June 2012, Middlebrooks posted a .240/.276/416/.692 line in his remaining 35 games of 2012. Since then Middlebrooks has posted a similar .226/.281/.421/.702 line in 109 games.


    These numbers are telling. I think some posters see a hot streak here and there and think Middy is reverting to the pre-Youk trade form.


    I'm not saying he can't improve or that injuries have not affected these numbers, but the sample size is growing larger and larger and the bottom line is barely changing.


    His fielding is not improving. His OBP might be looking better since his recall, but only time will tell if that is sustainable.  


    (Also, if you include the post season numbers of 2013 into his overall post-Youk numbers, it would look even worse: .160/.250/.240/.490 and 10  Ks in 10 games and 28 PAs.)


    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    And, yes, OBP is hard to grow once you are out of the minors.  But that is sort of my point.  He went BACK to the minors specifically to grow the aspects of his offense that generate higher OBP.  And, since his return to the majors, his OBP has grown.  Coincidence?  Or, cause and effect?  Yes, I agree the sample size is far too short to draw any conclusions and I get the skepticism.  But the trend is the trend and suggests a narrative that goes:  was a mess, went back to Pawtucket to put in work, work resulted in better plate discipline.  


    I'm not buying it.


    His OBP the day he left for AAA was .333.


    It is .328 now.


    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    As difficult as it is to accept, its logical to conclude that Wil Middlebrooks is unlikely to ever success as a MLB player. He has a large sample size from which to draw conclusions now; he cannot help this team. 


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    As difficult as it is to accept, its logical to conclude that Wil Middlebrooks is unlikely to ever success as a MLB player. He has a large sample size from which to draw conclusions now; he cannot help this team. 


     


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE


    [/QUOTE]

    You might be right, but I said from the start, let's see where he is by the middle of June, or at least at the end of May.


     


     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to royf19's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


    As difficult as it is to accept, its logical to conclude that Wil Middlebrooks is unlikely to ever success as a MLB player. He has a large sample size from which to draw conclusions now; he cannot help this team. 


     


     


     


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE


     


    [/QUOTE]

    You might be right, but I said from the start, let's see where he is by the middle of June, or at least at the end of May.


    [/QUOTE]


    I don't think we have any choice. I do not think that another three weeks is going to result in a significant improvement. He had his shot at it; he failed. He might get one more in ST next year, but its time we looked at another solution at 3B.


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE


     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    As difficult as it is to accept, its logical to conclude that Wil Middlebrooks is unlikely to ever success as a MLB player. He has a large sample size from which to draw conclusions now; he cannot help this team. 


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE [/QUOTE]


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    I've been pretty tough on Middy, but I haven't written him off yet. The sample size is not really big enough to know for sure. 


    I do think he projects better at 1B, but I doubt he will stay in AAA or as a back-up in the bigs until Naps leaves.


    The problem now is that his stock in trade is low.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    As difficult as it is to accept, its logical to conclude that Wil Middlebrooks is unlikely to ever success as a MLB player. He has a large sample size from which to draw conclusions now; he cannot help this team. 


     


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE


    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]


    I thought we had agreed that, after saying Lester was a #5 last year, that you weren't going to invent new logic?  To say it is logical to assume a 25 year old player is at his career peak, even though virtually every publication will tell you it is 27 and beyond, is completely illogical.


     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    And based off your grand knowledge you see him willingly going to Triple A for up to two years? lol. [/QUOTE] [object HTMLDivElement]


    I'm sure he wouldn't be happy, but the choice is not his to make. 


    It won't take two years for him to learn 1B. My guess is he'd be closer to an average fielding 1Bman faster than he becomes an average fielding 3Bman (if he ever does). I suppose if Napoli gets hurt, he might get a chance, but nobody wants that to be your only real hope at playing for two years.


    Middy will get a long look at 3B this year. Maybe Cecchini gets a look at some point, if Middy keeps struggling, but I do not see Ben moving him to 1B in the foreseeable future, so the question you ask is really moot.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


    As difficult as it is to accept, its logical to conclude that Wil Middlebrooks is unlikely to ever success as a MLB player. He has a large sample size from which to draw conclusions now; he cannot help this team. 


     


     


     


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE


     


    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]


     


    I thought we had agreed that, after saying Lester was a #5 last year, that you weren't going to invent new logic?  To say it is logical to assume a 25 year old player is at his career peak, even though virtually every publication will tell you it is 27 and beyond, is completely illogical.


     


     


    [/QUOTE]

    Tell you what: you show me any offensive or defensive stat of meaning that shows that he is capable of being a ML player and then we can have a discussion.


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE


     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    God!  I hate to admit it but.......


    WM    just might =    Willy Mo

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    Tell you what: you show me any offensive or defensive stat of meaning that shows that he is capable of being a ML player and then we can have a discussion.


    Well, there is one (or two):


    669 career ABs and 34 HRS/ 109 RBI


     


    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


     


     


    As difficult as it is to accept, its logical to conclude that Wil Middlebrooks is unlikely to ever success as a MLB player. He has a large sample size from which to draw conclusions now; he cannot help this team. 


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE


     


     


     


    [/QUOTE]


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    I thought we had agreed that, after saying Lester was a #5 last year, that you weren't going to invent new logic?  To say it is logical to assume a 25 year old player is at his career peak, even though virtually every publication will tell you it is 27 and beyond, is completely illogical.


     


     


     


     


     


    [/QUOTE]

    Tell you what: you show me any offensive or defensive stat of meaning that shows that he is capable of being a ML player and then we can have a discussion.


     


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE


     


     


    [/QUOTE]


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    1-That's not really the point.  The point is that you are assuming something, in support of your hypothesis, that has routinely been proven wrong.  If the assumption underlying the hypothesis is wrong, then the hypothesis is rendered meaningless.


    2-Past that-



    • Among 25 or under players, from 2012-2014, Middlebrooks is #13 in HRs.

    • He is ahead of McCutcheon, Hosmer, Pedro Alvarez, Puig, Lawrie, Posey, Rasmus, etc.


    I assume being #13 in HRs among all young players shows he is capable of being a player.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    God!  I hate to admit it but.......


     


    WM    just might =    Willy Mo


    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]


    I'm not a fan of WMB, and never have been, but he is already far more valuable defensively than WMP.


    IMO, a much more appropriate comparison would be Mark Reynolds.

     

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