Let's talk WMB....

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    That's just not accurate. The average MLB third baseman only has an OPS of .701 so far in 2014.


     


    Don't overlook that offensive numbers are in general decline.


     


    Middlebrooks is now ranked 16th of the 22 AL 3B with at least 50 ABs in WAR. He ranks 11th in OPS and 17th in BA. Over the last couple of years his WAR is between 0 and 0.1, which is defined as the "level of a replacement player". On a contending team that is not good enough, especially given his defensive inabilities.


     


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE


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    You can't use that.  FG lists eligible 3Bs.  The WS, for example, have two guys, the BJs have 2, the Indians and NYY have 3 each.  In addition, WAR is a cumulative stat.  Castellanos is a nice comp, but has >50% more ABs.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:


    In response to royf19's comment:


    In response to craze4sox's comment:


    Yup, we have both been thinking this may happen moon.  I personally can't let Middy off the hook as easy as some just because of his time spent on the DL.  He has pretty much been the same guy offensively for some time so outside of having a few little hot streaks not much has changed.  Waiting for him to improve offensively is almost as worrisome as expecting another trip to the DL at some point. 


    He's had more and longer hot streaks than cold streaks.   

    Currently WMB ranks 18th of the 22 AL 3B with >/= 50 PAs in BA, 10th in OPS, 9th in OBP, and 13th in WAR. Not good, but not all that bad either. Its not time yet to give up on him, though he is slumping of late. Not sure why Moon is so ready to give up on him unless his comment was tongue in cheek.  


     


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF


     


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    I find it pretty funny yet quite sad for us how well a guy like Solarte has helped the Yankees so far while our FO is still counting on Middy's 200 BA to become our big middle of the order bat. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from steven11. Show steven11's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    One more error and we should start a thread called: Let's talk about Xander Bogaerts.  That error today could have been costly and is made by a ss in single A.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    One more error and we should start a thread called: Let's talk about Xander Bogaerts.  That error today could have been costly and is made by a ss in single A.


    [/QUOTE]

    Bogy was expected to have a rough time at SS this season.  Anyone in our FO or otherwise who thought differently must have dreaming.  Our SP has kept this team around so we can't complain too much.  Are we getting any better otherwise?  Not really but it could be much worse.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


    One more error and we should start a thread called: Let's talk about Xander Bogaerts.  That error today could have been costly and is made by a ss in single A.


     


    [/QUOTE]

    Bogy was expected to have a rough time at SS this season.  Anyone in our FO or otherwise who thought differently must have dreaming.  Our SP has kept this team around so we can't complain too much.  Are we getting any better otherwise?  Not really but it could be much worse.


    [/QUOTE]


    if by starting pitching you mean 60% of them, then yes.  you are correct.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from steven11. Show steven11's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    craze:  Anyone who sat thru his games down at Pawtucket knew he was going to have a rough start at ss.  Even after his decent showing against a poor Cardinal team, some still thought this.  But the majority of posters and all radio personality thought he was a great defensive player.


    It wasn't until the second week of the season that mazz projected Xander to have 20 errors on the season.  Even then Mazz said as long as he hits his projected 16 homers, he could live with it.


    I still want boggie to finish out the year so I don't want to be labeled a hater. But his average is falling and he has just one homer and 5 rbi's. The error today ended up costing nothing but we saw lackey get a little bit more steamed than usual.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    I find it pretty funny yet quite sad for us how well a guy like Solarte has helped the Yankees so far while our FO is still counting on Middy's 200 BA to become our big middle of the order bat.


    Lots of funny things for every team.  Every team has an under- and over-performer.


     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    That's just not accurate. The average MLB third baseman only has an OPS of .701 so far in 2014.


    Don't overlook that offensive numbers are in general decline.


    Middlebrooks is now ranked 16th of the 22 AL 3B with at least 50 ABs in WAR. He ranks 11th in OPS and 17th in BA. Over the last couple of years his WAR is between 0 and 0.1, which is defined as the "level of a replacement player". On a contending team that is not good enough, especially given his defensive inabilities.


    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE


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    WAR includes defense, so don't double smack him for that.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    This may not be the most accurate way of ranking Middy in comparison to other MLB 3Bman, but it's probably as good as any methodology.


    On defense, it takes just 1000 innings to get a list of 31 3Bmen (about one per ML team). Middy ranks 20th in UZR/150 (as I showed earlier, it's been worse after 2012.) He's 18th in Range (RngR), 21st in ErrR, and 24th in DPR).


    Overall, there are 33 3Bmen with over 700+ PAs since 2012. WAR is a cumulative stat, and I wish they'd come up with a WAR per 9 innings or something, but Middy places 25th at +2.4. If you doubled his WAR to give him the same PAs as some 3Bmen, he'd place 17th at 4.8--still not top tier.


    On offense (out of 33 with 700+ PAs since 2012), Middy places ...


    31st in OBP (.298) (Almost bottom third)


    11th in SLG (.454) (Just barely top third)


    18th in OPS (.752) (Just about average)


    28th in BB% (5.5%)/32nd in K% at 25.4%


     


    So, he's about 18-20th on defense and offense. That's close to number 15, which is, in theory, average. If you count 1-10 as plus, 10-20 as average, and 20-30 below average, then Middy is borderline average/below average. This is not bad for a 25 year old who has put up these numbers scattered over 3 years and peppered with injuries. Certainly there is room for him to become average or above average by age 27 or so.


    Sox4ever

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    Our SP has kept this team around so we can't complain too much. Are we getting any better otherwise? Not really but it could be much worse. [/QUOTE]


    if by starting pitching you mean 60% of them, then yes. you are correct.


    As a whole our SP'ers have done very well: 


    3rd in WAR at 4.1 behind Detroit and Cleveland.


    Our pen has been even better:


    1st in WAR at 2.4


    Overall:


    1st in WAR at 6.5 (over 10% better than the next teams- DET & CLE at 5.7).


    Pretty impressive!


    When this team starts to hit, and they will, we should be right up there with the top ring contenders.


    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    So, he's about 18-20th on defense and offense. That's close to number 15, which is, in theory, average.


    Excellent analysis.  My pure guess would've been exactly 18-20, hence my offer to bet Pumpsie.  For someone 30 year's old, a bet on someone that is 18-20, to be in the top 20, wouldn't mean too much.  But given that he's only 25, and only about a year's worth of ABs, he stands a pretty good chance to be in the top half.


    Past that, he is minimum wage.  Hence me asking how he would be replaced.  We'd have virtually -0- chance of replacing him at minimum wage.  Keep in mind, I'd have traded him after 2012, but that doesn't mean I can disregard 34 HRs in ~ 675 ABs.


     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    Hard to give up on a guy with that kind of power potential. Will still has to demonstrate that he can put it all together. Time is running out. It is always a tough call. Give up on a guy too soon and you can come to regret it. Wait too long and the trade value can disappear. Player evaluation is an inexact science. The best G.M.s are right more often than they are wrong. For me, I would not give up on Middlebrooks at this time. The potential is still there. The trade value is not too good.  Stick with him for a while longer. 


    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    Was Bogaerts charged with an error in the game? I don't see it in the box score. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    So, he's about 18-20th on defense and offense. That's close to number 15, which is, in theory, average.


    Excellent analysis.  My pure guess would've been exactly 18-20, hence my offer to bet Pumpsie.  For someone 30 year's old, a bet on someone that is 18-20, to be in the top 20, wouldn't mean too much.  But given that he's only 25, and only about a year's worth of ABs, he stands a pretty good chance to be in the top half.


    Past that, he is minimum wage.  Hence me asking how he would be replaced.  We'd have virtually -0- chance of replacing him at minimum wage.  Keep in mind, I'd have traded him after 2012, but that doesn't mean I can disregard 34 HRs in ~ 675 ABs.


    While I hate to discard Middy's 2012 numbers, since it was his longest continuous stretch in MLB, I can see how his 2013-2014 numbers make many here feel there is very little chance or hope he ever becomes top 15 overall at 3B in MLB.


    Here are the same rankings, but without 2012:


    On Defense (31 3Bmen with 550 innings from 2013-2014), Middy ranks...


    25th in UZR/150  (20th in RngR, 21st in ErrR, and 27th in DPR)


    Overall, I have to go down to 400 PAs to get Middy in the sample. That puts 37 3Bmen in the group for comparison. Middy places 29th out of 37 in WAR (+0.4). He'd only be 27th if you doubled his WAR to 0.8.


    On offense, he places...


    35th in OBP at .281 (about the very worst in MLB)


    18th in SLG at .417 (about average)


    28th in OPS at .719 (near bottom-28th out of the 33 3Bmen with 440+ PAs)


    29th in BB% at 5.6/34th in K% at 26%


    These numbers support the argument that he has been about bottom 15% on defense and bottom 15% on offense. That does not bode well for him ever becoming top 50%.


    At 25, I think he deserves a longer look, but my hopes are not high. They were not high last winter either.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to patrickford's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Was Bogaerts charged with an error in the game? I don't see it in the box score.[/QUOTE] [object HTMLDivElement]


    No, no error charged, but he'll take a hit on UZR/150 for that one.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    So, he's about 18-20th on defense and offense. That's close to number 15, which is, in theory, average. If you count 1-10 as plus, 10-20 as average, and 20-30 below average, then Middy is borderline average/below average. This is not bad for a 25 year old who has put up these numbers scattered over 3 years and peppered with injuries. Certainly there is room for him to become average or above average by age 27 or so.


    Sox4ever


    [/QUOTE]

    This is the post that nails it.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    So, he's about 18-20th on defense and offense. That's close to number 15, which is, in theory, average. If you count 1-10 as plus, 10-20 as average, and 20-30 below average, then Middy is borderline average/below average. This is not bad for a 25 year old who has put up these numbers scattered over 3 years and peppered with injuries. Certainly there is room for him to become average or above average by age 27 or so.


    Sox4ever


    [/QUOTE]
    This is the post that nails it.[/QUOTE] [object HTMLDivElement]


    The problem is that a contending team may not be able to allow a player to fully develop at the ML level and still stay competitive, especially when you figure we are now doing that at 3 positios all at once.


    Middy may very well be a plus (#1-10) or solid average (#10-15) by age 27, but along the way, we miss out on a ring or two.


    Last winter, I looked at the three positions handed to young players: SS, CF and 3B and wondered which was the weakest. To me, it looked like 3B, but the good thing was, we had other options if Middy struggled or got hurt again, namely moving Bogey to 3B (had we picked up a capable back-up SS- which we did not) or Cecchini. We also had the possibility of moving Betts to 3B (but not for 2014).


    Now that Grady is looking a bit shaky, maybe CF is the bigger worry area, but at least JBJ is a huge plus defensively.


    I know some are now calling Bogey a weak link, but I am less worried about him than Middy or JBJ.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    In response to chickenandboose's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    I should really stop buying Red Sox players t shirt... I bought an A Gon shirt and he got traded so I got a Middlebrooks shirt but looks like he will be traded soon.


     


    Something tells me I should hold off on that Boggy shirt... 


    [/QUOTE]


    they dont put names on the back.


    so my shea hillenbrand jersey has become:


    Kapler, Foulke, Smoltz, Betlre, Nava....


    im kinda screwed with my custom Dice K jersey in which i did the #18 in Japanese symbols.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    The only player's name on a Sox shirt I have is Beckett.


     


    It was a gift- not choice, but I wore it proudly after the 2007 WS.


    Can I sell it on E-Bay? Or, will I have to pay someone to take it off my hands?


     


    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Let's talk WMB....

    Yaz 8, Clemens 21, Naerhing (11)


    I'll pay the postage for anyone who wants 21............

     

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