Re: Let's talk WMB....
posted at 5/11/2014 9:46 PM EDT
In response to Joebreidey's comment:
So, he's about 18-20th on defense and offense. That's close to number 15, which is, in theory, average.
Excellent analysis. My pure guess would've been exactly 18-20, hence my offer to bet Pumpsie. For someone 30 year's old, a bet on someone that is 18-20, to be in the top 20, wouldn't mean too much. But given that he's only 25, and only about a year's worth of ABs, he stands a pretty good chance to be in the top half.
Past that, he is minimum wage. Hence me asking how he would be replaced. We'd have virtually -0- chance of replacing him at minimum wage. Keep in mind, I'd have traded him after 2012, but that doesn't mean I can disregard 34 HRs in ~ 675 ABs.
While I hate to discard Middy's 2012 numbers, since it was his longest continuous stretch in MLB, I can see how his 2013-2014 numbers make many here feel there is very little chance or hope he ever becomes top 15 overall at 3B in MLB.
Here are the same rankings, but without 2012:
On Defense (31 3Bmen with 550 innings from 2013-2014), Middy ranks...
25th in UZR/150 (20th in RngR, 21st in ErrR, and 27th in DPR)
Overall, I have to go down to 400 PAs to get Middy in the sample. That puts 37 3Bmen in the group for comparison. Middy places 29th out of 37 in WAR (+0.4). He'd only be 27th if you doubled his WAR to 0.8.
On offense, he places...
35th in OBP at .281 (about the very worst in MLB)
18th in SLG at .417 (about average)
28th in OPS at .719 (near bottom-28th out of the 33 3Bmen with 440+ PAs)
29th in BB% at 5.6/34th in K% at 26%
These numbers support the argument that he has been about bottom 15% on defense and bottom 15% on offense. That does not bode well for him ever becoming top 50%.
At 25, I think he deserves a longer look, but my hopes are not high. They were not high last winter either.