Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    he's been on the DL twice in his entire career. that hardly constitutes "being on the DL a lot".

    Maybe it wasn't the amount of times he's gone on the DL, but the total length of time he has been on the DL since 2010.

    It's hard to know if Ells is injury prone, or one who milks an injury, or one who has a low pain threshhold, or none of the above, but the fact is, he has missed a lot of time since 2010.

    250 games from 2010-2012 is about 83 per season.

    I don't expect Jacoby to get hurt, but his injury history does concern me a little.

    Sox4ever



    These are your words last week. That is what I am referring to as reviving the injury prone, injury milking label. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    he's been on the DL twice in his entire career. that hardly constitutes "being on the DL a lot".

    Maybe it wasn't the amount of times he's gone on the DL, but the total length of time he has been on the DL since 2010.

    It's hard to know if Ells is injury prone, or one who milks an injury, or one who has a low pain threshhold, or none of the above, but the fact is, he has missed a lot of time since 2010.

    250 games from 2010-2012 is about 83 per season.

    I don't expect Jacoby to get hurt, but his injury history does concern me a little.

    Sox4ever

     



    These are your words last week. That is what I am referring to as reviving the injury prone, injury milking label. 

     



    Yes, but I did not "bring it up" as you stated on the other thread. Please see the highlighted words. In no way am I calling him injury prone or a milker. I just am "a little concerned" about injury- as I am with almost all players.

     

    Someone else mentioned Ellsbury was on the DL a lot, and I attempted to try and clarify what he meant- not that it was a lot of times on the DL, but that he meant long times on the DL.

     

    I also said, "Maybe"  .... " it wasn't the amount of times he's gone on the DL, but the total length of time he has been on the DL since 2010. It's hard to know if Ells is injury prone, or one who milks an injury, or one who has a low pain threshhold, or none of the above, but the fact is, he has missed a lot of time since 2010.

    250 games from 2010-2012 is about 83 per season.

    I don't expect Jacoby to get hurt, but his injury history does concern me a little.

     

    I really don't see myself being overly critical here on the Ellsbury injury front. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW


    People in sports get injured. Freak accidents happen, what can you do.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from 67redsox. Show 67redsox's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to trouts' comment:

    In response to 67redsox's comment:

     

     

    Ellsbury will go after the money.  I think it's the same old story, contract year=better numbers.

    The guy has been on the DL a lot and frankly I don't think he likes to play in boston.  He was medically mismanaged a few years ago and I think he hasn't forgotten that.  He is playing better right now but the last couple of years he hasn't impressed.


    "the last couple of years he hasn't impressed" Really! In 2011 he batted .321, hit 32 HRs and drove in 105 runs. Those numbers are some of the best numbers ever put up by a leadoff hitter in the history of the game. And do I have to mention he leads the league in stolen bases and plays a fine center field. He was on the DL because the Sox stupidly signed Cameron to play center field and moved Jacobly to left where he got run over by Beltre when he was hustling to catch a fly ball. The other injury came on a stolen base attempt. The guy plays hard and gets ripped here on this forum by folks who for some strange reason seem blind to his talent. I hope he stays with the Sox and I hope they pay him whatever the market says he deserves.









     

     




     



    He spends too much time on the DL.  I don't care how good someone is, if they are not on the field they can't help the team.  He is having a good year because it's his contract year.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from 67redsox. Show 67redsox's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    he's been on the DL twice in his entire career. that hardly constitutes "being on the DL a lot".

    Maybe it wasn't the amount of times he's gone on the DL, but the total length of time he has been on the DL since 2010.

    It's hard to know if Ells is injury prone, or one who milks an injury, or one who has a low pain threshhold, or none of the above, but the fact is, he has missed a lot of time since 2010.

    250 games from 2010-2012 is about 83 per season.

    I don't expect Jacoby to get hurt, but his injury history does concern me a little.

    Sox4ever

     



    These are your words last week. That is what I am referring to as reviving the injury prone, injury milking label. 

     



    He was clarifing a point I was making and I thanked him for it.  Re-read the thread to get the full story.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to 67redsox's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    he's been on the DL twice in his entire career. that hardly constitutes "being on the DL a lot".

    Maybe it wasn't the amount of times he's gone on the DL, but the total length of time he has been on the DL since 2010.

    It's hard to know if Ells is injury prone, or one who milks an injury, or one who has a low pain threshhold, or none of the above, but the fact is, he has missed a lot of time since 2010.

    250 games from 2010-2012 is about 83 per season.

    I don't expect Jacoby to get hurt, but his injury history does concern me a little.

    Sox4ever

     

     



    These are your words last week. That is what I am referring to as reviving the injury prone, injury milking label. 

     

     

     



    He was clarifing a point I was making and I thanked him for it.  Re-read the thread to get the full story.

     



    Yes, exactly, and on another thread, he accused me of bringing it up and all but calling Ellsbury injury prone and a milker.

    All I feel about Ellsbury's injury is a little concern if we extend him, and for that and the fact that I said he has a terrible arm and is not the best at getting breaks on balls or taking the right angle I am being vilified.

    I admit, I have been critical of some aspects of Jacoby's "game", but in general, I have been one of his biggest supporters. I am not for huge contracts for almost anyone. I would not pay Jacoby some of the numbers I have seen thrown around on this site. I'd offer him $14M/1 to get the draft pick, and would go no higher than $52M/4 or $62M/5. I realize the market value is higher, if you look at what Bourn and Cody Ross got last winter, but just because they were overpaid, it does not mean I think Ellsbury stinks, because I won't offer more than what those guys got.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to 67redsox's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

     

    he's been on the DL twice in his entire career. that hardly constitutes "being on the DL a lot".

    Maybe it wasn't the amount of times he's gone on the DL, but the total length of time he has been on the DL since 2010.

    It's hard to know if Ells is injury prone, or one who milks an injury, or one who has a low pain threshhold, or none of the above, but the fact is, he has missed a lot of time since 2010.

    250 games from 2010-2012 is about 83 per season.

    I don't expect Jacoby to get hurt, but his injury history does concern me a little.

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    These are your words last week. That is what I am referring to as reviving the injury prone, injury milking label. 

     

     

     

     

     



    He was clarifing a point I was making and I thanked him for it.  Re-read the thread to get the full story.

     

     

     



    To say that he is having a good year because it is his walk year is absurd and shows ignorance. If players could have a good year at will , they would do it all the time. These are competitive pro athletes and there is a lot of money at stake. They always want to play their best.  It is not easy.   By the way, I did re-read the thread. I noticed where you said that he was having a good year because it was his contract year, but had not been impressive the last two years. The last two years were 2012 and 2011. Have you been paying attention?  

     

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to 67redsox's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

     

    he's been on the DL twice in his entire career. that hardly constitutes "being on the DL a lot".

    Maybe it wasn't the amount of times he's gone on the DL, but the total length of time he has been on the DL since 2010.

    It's hard to know if Ells is injury prone, or one who milks an injury, or one who has a low pain threshhold, or none of the above, but the fact is, he has missed a lot of time since 2010.

    250 games from 2010-2012 is about 83 per season.

    I don't expect Jacoby to get hurt, but his injury history does concern me a little.

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    These are your words last week. That is what I am referring to as reviving the injury prone, injury milking label. 

     

     

     

     

     



    He was clarifing a point I was making and I thanked him for it.  Re-read the thread to get the full story.

     

     

     



    To say that he is having a good year because it is his walk year is absurd and shows ignorance. If players could have a good year at will , they would do it all the time. These are competitive pro athletes and there is a lot of money at stake. They always want to play their best.  It is not easy.   By the way, I did re-read the thread. I noticed where you said that he was having a good year because it was his contract year, but had not been impressive the last two years. The last two years were 2012 and 2011. Have you been paying attention?  

     



    So, are you still sticking to your story that I brought it up and that I called Ellsbury injury prone and a milker or did you re-read it and see the context of those words?

    I'd love to have Ellsbury back next year and beyond. I like JBJ and think he may do very well for us at a low cost, but it's a huge gamble. Victorino can play CF too, but he is getting older and missing time with various injuries. To me, it's not about liking or not liking Jacoby; it's about the money and how to best spend the amount we will have this winter. I'm guessing on what Jacoby will make, and I could be wrong, but I do not think we should pay what the most desperate GM will be willign to pay (probably more than $75-80M/5). If you want to call me a basher for holding this position, then that's your right, but please stop misrepresenting my views all over the place. (Or, at least admit you made a mistake, like I did when I thought you made the "head and shoulders" better statement on the other thread.)

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from wonderdrums. Show wonderdrums's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to bosoxmal's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In theory that might work, but its not realistic in this situation.

    Why would Ells or Boras take a low ball offer from the Sox right now only a few months away from being the top OF FA on the market and possibly getting a much more lucrative payday?

    Do you just make up stats? Hes batting .303, not .320. How is he at a rate of 3HR a month when he only has 2 so far this year? One yesterday and one on APRIL 7TH. 3/month makes no sense. I also didnt realize he was atop the MVP voting either. Are they already voting?

    seems you might need to "wake up", not the Sox Management.

     

     



    I did not say he's hittong .320! I said he's heading that way. I did not say he's hitting home runs at a 3/month rate. I said he's heading in that direction. Plewase, read the actual post before commenting.

     



    Actually, yes you did Bo. 

    "One of these Mgmt will wake and notice that Ellsbury is hitting .320, back to hitting home runs at a rate of about 3/month,"

    You've made 1400 posts on this board. You should know what you're getting into when you try to  post stats. It's all good though. I understand the point you're trying to make:) I agree the Sox should try to sign him for market value while he's on the roster still, but if he refuses I wouldn't chase him. It will only raise the price tag. 

    Go Sox!

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from wonderdrums. Show wonderdrums's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    One more thing guys. We sometimes forget that people are posting their OPINIONS on the posted topic. On too many occasions these threads turn into personal grudge matches with a lot of he said, she said stuff going on. I wish it wasn't so, because it takes away from your ability to use your baseball knowledge effectively. You don't have to agree, but you don't have to attack others opinions either. Other than that, I love all the depth and knowledge on this board. It's good to see multiple generations of Sox fans together somewhere other than Fenway:) 

    Go Sox!

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    A couple of general comments about this thread:

    We talk about signing/extending Ells as if it's something that would happen now if we'd just try.  I don't agree that it's a foregone conclusion that he'd sign if we make the right offer.  I also don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he won't re-sign.  My best guess is that if he were offered 3/$200M he'd sign.  Yes, that's ridiculous, but it shows that there IS a point where he'd sign.  What we should be doing is finding out where that point is (without committing to something as unreasonable as 3/$200.)

    IMO we shojuld be TRYING to sign him now.  Make  him some kind of a reasonable (my def of reasonable is an end point of 5/$15) and see if he likes it.  Maybe he'd like it.  Maybe he wouldn't.  Tell him that if he turns it down that offer may be there in FA negotiations.... or maybe it won't, and that the FO will make that decision at the time based on the facts at that time.  But nothing ventured, nothing gained.

    Now @ Moon...

    With all due respect, what are doing, getting involved in --zzing contests??  You're too good for that.  FYI you don't agree with what someone says, fine, let it go.  Engaging in things like that only damages your reputation.

    ...and... You're beginning to sound like Softy with your comment of, "if you look at what Bourn and Cody Ross got last winter, but just because they were overpaid, it does not mean I think Ellsbury stinks, because I won't offer more than what those guys got."

     

    "Overpaid" is one of those nebulous words Softy would throw out to try to justify his position.  Given the continuing escalating salaries, I'm not sure what "overpaid" means anymore on the FA market.  The only way to determine whether a player was overpaid is to look at the body of work during the duration of the contract, THEN make that decision. 

    Remembering that for the owners it's all about the money, no true value has been or can be assigned to a player by a fan because so many things come into play. A player who plays for a winning team is worth more than a player who doesn't.  A player who's a fan favorite is worth more than one who isn't.   Why?  Because they bring more fans in who buy more TV subscriptions and come to the park more and buy more hot dogs and shirts.  The more money a player can generate for an owner the more he's "worth".  Because as little as us fans like to admit it, it IS all about the money - and how the owners can separate it from us to get it to them. 

    Bottom line:  Ells is worth a lot of money, especially in Boston where he's a known commodity.

     

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    Ellsbury could in fact be worth a lot to the Sox, but I'm basically a cheapskate, especially in the face of one Scott Boras, who has repeatedly called Ellsbury a franchise player, which isn't true but which shows what Boras expects in the way of a contract. 

    Elsewhere I started a thread comparing Bradley and Ellsbury and in it opined Ellsbury is a lot better on offense.  But I would still let Ellsbury go because of his price and because Bradley in CF wouldn't be half bad.  Plus, and this will kill any reasonable fan (which I don't claim to be), I'm not happy with  Ellsbury going hitless in Oakland against two righty starters and when the Sox really need a good leadoff man. 

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    To say that he is having a good year because it is his walk year is absurd and shows ignorance. 

    It's not absurd at all.  There are plenty of times in my career when I am less focused and more focused.  And there are plenty of times in my life where I want to get into better shape, and other times when I care a whole lot less.  Why would an athlete be any different?  Maybe you spend an extra 30 minutes a day in the off-season lifting and taking BP.  Maybe you improve your diet suring the regular season, cut out beer, show up 30 minutes earlier for BP, study a little more film.  I doubt there are many athletes out there that are always 100% on.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Ellsbury could in fact be worth a lot to the Sox, but I'm basically a cheapskate, especially in the face of one Scott Boras, who has repeatedly called Ellsbury a franchise player, which isn't true but which shows what Boras expects in the way of a contract. 

    Elsewhere I started a thread comparing Bradley and Ellsbury and in it opined Ellsbury is a lot better on offense.  But I would still let Ellsbury go because of his price and because Bradley in CF wouldn't be half bad.  Plus, and this will kill any reasonable fan (which I don't claim to be), I'm not happy with  Ellsbury going hitless in Oakland against two righty starters and when the Sox really need a good leadoff man. 

     



    I don't think you should ever, ever sign a FA when you have someone in the minors waiting to start.  You will always, always have holes in your roster.  For the RS, I assume those holes WILL NOT be at SS, 3B, and CF.  Those are the last slots I would look to throw money at.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to S5's comment:

     

    A couple of general comments about this thread:

    We talk about signing/extending Ells as if it's something that would happen now if we'd just try.  I don't agree that it's a foregone conclusion that he'd sign if we make the right offer.  I also don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he won't re-sign.  My best guess is that if he were offered 3/$200M he'd sign.  Yes, that's ridiculous, but it shows that there IS a point where he'd sign.  What we should be doing is finding out where that point is (without committing to something as unreasonable as 3/$200.)

    IMO we shojuld be TRYING to sign him now.  Make  him some kind of a reasonable (my def of reasonable is an end point of 5/$15) and see if he likes it.  Maybe he'd like it.  Maybe he wouldn't.  Tell him that if he turns it down that offer may be there in FA negotiations.... or maybe it won't, and that the FO will make that decision at the time based on the facts at that time.  But nothing ventured, nothing gained.

    Now @ Moon...

    With all due respect, what are doing, getting involved in --zzing contests??  You're too good for that.  FYI you don't agree with what someone says, fine, let it go.  Engaging in things like that only damages your reputation.

    ...and... You're beginning to sound like Softy with your comment of, "if you look at what Bourn and Cody Ross got last winter, but just because they were overpaid, it does not mean I think Ellsbury stinks, because I won't offer more than what those guys got."

     

    "Overpaid" is one of those nebulous words Softy would throw out to try to justify his position.  Given the continuing escalating salaries, I'm not sure what "overpaid" means anymore on the FA market.  The only way to determine whether a player was overpaid is to look at the body of work during the duration of the contract, THEN make that decision. 

    Remembering that for the owners it's all about the money, no true value has been or can be assigned to a player by a fan because so many things come into play. A player who plays for a winning team is worth more than a player who doesn't.  A player who's a fan favorite is worth more than one who isn't.   Why?  Because they bring more fans in who buy more TV subscriptions and come to the park more and buy more hot dogs and shirts.  The more money a player can generate for an owner the more he's "worth".  Because as little as us fans like to admit it, it IS all about the money - and how the owners can separate it from us to get it to them. 

    Bottom line:  Ells is worth a lot of money, especially in Boston where he's a known commodity.

     

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     




    Good post S5...

     

    I think you tell Ellsbury to allow us to match or beat any offer made and see what happens. Although Michael Bourne got 4/48, doesnt mean Ells will get that little. The circumstances are vastly different. Ells is the TOP OF on the market. Hes a .300BA high OBP guy who is a game changer on the base paths and one of, if not, the best lead off hitter in MLB. Theres something about him that Bourne doesnt have.

    I dont look at him as injury prone. Ive actually had both his types of injuries and they take a while to heal. With him being an athlete at the top level, thats going to take a while. Weve seen too many guys come back early just to end back on the DL again. he tried coming back from the ribs but collided with big Tommy Hunter and re-injured the ribs again as well as cracking a couple more. A shoulder sublexion is tough to determine because theyre not all the same. With him having to swing a bat, throw a ball, and possible dive to slide or catch a ball, you have to be very careful. The time table is different for pro athletes than with you or me because of their job demands. So, its not like he has a hammy every 6 weeks, or he has nagging injuries.

    And to 67 who says hes playing good because of a contract year. Sorry, but thats so laughable. These guys want to play ball and compete. Maybe they are focused more in that year, but that can be a good or bad thing. Some try too hard and end up hurting themselves. Basically, They know the business side of things and dont want to sit on the DL longer than they have to is my point. Specifically Ellsbury. Hes been waiting for FA for a long time and sitting on the DL doesnt help him no matter what year. Before his 1st injury his numbers were trending up for 2 years. ALL his numbers. He was a.300BA with a .360OBP and .420SLG and all those number were on the rise. He went from 50SB to 70 in 2009. So hes doing right now what he was already starting to do from 2007-2009. IMHO, Paying him 16+M per for 5 years is a smart deal, whether its the Sox or not. He will turn 35 in September of his final year.

    But like I said, Id let the market dictate his value first and ask him to allow us to match or beat any offer. IF he wants to play here.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    I'd rather spend the money it would take to sign Ells elsewhere. Or atleast have it on hand to address other future issues. CF depth is good to great w/ Vic, Bradley, mabye even Kalish at some point (late next season)... All w/ better arms than Ellsbury. Leadoff wise, Victorino might be better option anyhow. If the Sox do wind-up re-signing Ells, I hope he plays a great LF. 

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    In response to 67redsox's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

     

    he's been on the DL twice in his entire career. that hardly constitutes "being on the DL a lot".

    Maybe it wasn't the amount of times he's gone on the DL, but the total length of time he has been on the DL since 2010.

    It's hard to know if Ells is injury prone, or one who milks an injury, or one who has a low pain threshhold, or none of the above, but the fact is, he has missed a lot of time since 2010.

    250 games from 2010-2012 is about 83 per season.

    I don't expect Jacoby to get hurt, but his injury history does concern me a little.

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    These are your words last week. That is what I am referring to as reviving the injury prone, injury milking label. 

     

     

     

     

     



    He was clarifing a point I was making and I thanked him for it.  Re-read the thread to get the full story.

     

     

     



    To say that he is having a good year because it is his walk year is absurd and shows ignorance. If players could have a good year at will , they would do it all the time. These are competitive pro athletes and there is a lot of money at stake. They always want to play their best.  It is not easy.   By the way, I did re-read the thread. I noticed where you said that he was having a good year because it was his contract year, but had not been impressive the last two years. The last two years were 2012 and 2011. Have you been paying attention?  

     

     



    So, are you still sticking to your story that I brought it up and that I called Ellsbury injury prone and a milker or did you re-read it and see the context of those words?

     

    I'd love to have Ellsbury back next year and beyond. I like JBJ and think he may do very well for us at a low cost, but it's a huge gamble. Victorino can play CF too, but he is getting older and missing time with various injuries. To me, it's not about liking or not liking Jacoby; it's about the money and how to best spend the amount we will have this winter. I'm guessing on what Jacoby will make, and I could be wrong, but I do not think we should pay what the most desperate GM will be willign to pay (probably more than $75-80M/5). If you want to call me a basher for holding this position, then that's your right, but please stop misrepresenting my views all over the place. (Or, at least admit you made a mistake, like I did when I thought you made the "head and shoulders" better statement on the other thread.)



    • dgalehouse
    • Posts: 10283
    • First: 6/4/2010
    • Last: 7/14/2013

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    It's hard to know if Ells is injury prone, or one who milks an injury, or one who has a low pain threshhold, or none of the above, but the fact is, he has missed a lot of time since 2010

    You put this into the discussion. That is what I am talking about.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    I'd rather spend the money it would take to sign Ells elsewhere. Or atleast have it on hand to address other future issues. CF depth is good to great w/ Vic, Bradley, mabye even Kalish at some point (late next season)... All w/ better arms than Ellsbury. Leadoff wise, Victorino might be better option anyhow. If the Sox do wind-up re-signing Ells, I hope he plays a great LF. 

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     




    If he does walk, we will certainly have to try and make his production up at another position. Im really not worried either way. JBJ will be poroductive with the bat and on defense. Its the SB threat and how that can disrupt pitchers that we will miss. I think JBJ can be a 280-300 hitter with an OBP north of 360 with great defense. I also think he can hit 10-15HR a year.

    By the way emp...check your BDC message box.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    Now @ Moon...

    With all due respect, what are doing, getting involved in --zzing contests??  You're too good for that.  FYI you don't agree with what someone says, fine, let it go.  Engaging in things like that only damages your reputation.

    ...and... You're beginning to sound like Softy with your comment of, "if you look at what Bourn and Cody Ross got last winter, but just because they were overpaid, it does not mean I think Ellsbury stinks, because I won't offer more than what those guys got."

     

    "Overpaid" is one of those nebulous words Softy would throw out to try to justify his position.  Given the continuing escalating salaries, I'm not sure what "overpaid" means anymore on the FA market.  The only way to determine whether a player was overpaid is to look at the body of work during the duration of the contract, THEN make that decision. 

    Remembering that for the owners it's all about the money, no true value has been or can be assigned to a player by a fan because so many things come into play. A player who plays for a winning team is worth more than a player who doesn't.  A player who's a fan favorite is worth more than one who isn't.   Why?  Because they bring more fans in who buy more TV subscriptions and come to the park more and buy more hot dogs and shirts.  The more money a player can generate for an owner the more he's "worth".  Because as little as us fans like to admit it, it IS all about the money - and how the owners can separate it from us to get it to them. 

    Bottom line:  Ells is worth a lot of money, especially in Boston where he's a known commodity.

    I know it is all about the money.

    I am not like softy, who suggests offers at about 1/3 or 1/4th of what the players actually sign for.

    Here's my point in a nutshel: I get the point that if Victorino is really worth $39M/3, then Ellsbury should be worth about $51M+/3. However, since I think SV was vastly overpaid and given a year too much, the fact that I would not offer Ellsbury $51M/3 does not mean I think Ellsbury stinks or is only as good as SV, because I'd offer him close to $39M/3 or $55M/4.

    Posters read too much into what other say, because they make assumptions based on their own way of looking at a player's value- both in terms of actual skillset value and open market financial value.

     

    I get your "overpaid" argument, and of course there is a lot more than just production that goes into a player's monetary value to a team. I have gone into great length trying to explain how I look at contract value in an overall team philosophy and a "could we upgrade at another position moreso with the same money" type outlook.

    On Ellsbury, I do think the chances are we'd be downgraded in CF in 2014 with JBJ or SV out there, but at the cost of what I think Ellsbury's contract will be, I do not think that downgrade is about $15M/year worth, and that the money it would take to re-sign Ellsbury could be better used to upgrade positions not as strong as JBJ/Victorino.

    We can upgrade at catcher with much less than $15M/yr and going with Lava/Ross/Vazquez scares me much more than going with JBJ?SV in CF next year.

    We can upgrade at 3B or RF (assuming SV plays CF) with a power RH'd bat using some or all of the $15M/yr (plus maybe more) earmarked for Jacoby and fill a need we have had since trading Manny or losing JBay's production while here. To me, this is a higher need than keeping Jacoby. I could be wrong, but this is my opinion. Maybe I am overvaluing JBJ and SV as CF'ers. Maybe I am undervaluing Jacoby. Maybe I am doing a little of both, but it is my opinion, and I do not think I am way off base with it.

    We can upgrade our starting rotation- something that needs to be done every so often, even if it looks like we are all set with 5-6 solid starters and young guys on the way. If we end up with a surplus, we can make out like bandits at the trade deadline anyways. Over recent years, we have needed over 50 starts from our 6th starter or lower. This year, we have actually been somewhat blessed to only miss about 15-20 starts so far. Even with the relatively good luck, we have used Aceves for 6, Webster for 6, morales for 1, and will be using Workman for 1- all before the break. That's 14 starts total- on a "good year". Pitchers are very costly on the "open market" or via trade. Getting a top of rotation type SP could eat up a big chunk of the available budget money this winter, and although the "on paper upgrade" may not match the cost involved, we should plan on one or more of our SP'ers going down with an injury or dropping off a cliff productionwise. If it doesn't happen, we trade one of our SPs (maybe Lester while on his last year of his deal) at the deadline.

    We need to upgrade our pen in a bad way. It may not cost big bucks, unless we try to sign a big-named closer, but it will take some money to just patch it up a little.

    In short, while I think there's a good chance JBJ does well in CF, Bogaerts does well at 3B, one of Carp/Nava/Middlebrooks does well at 1B, and  one of Morales, Webster, Aceves, Workman, Wright, Ranaudo, DLR, or someone else does well as a 5/6 starter, I do not think a contending team can count on all of these to happen at once, plus I did not even mention the fact that Iggy could bat .240 next year and nobody would be shocked, Nava could drop off sharply as could SV, Papi, or others. I want Jacoby back. I just don't think the downgrade in CF is as much as we can upgrade elsewhere.

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    It's hard to know if Ells is injury prone, or one who milks an injury, or one who has a low pain threshhold, or none of the above, but the fact is, he has missed a lot of time since 2010

    You put this into the discussion. That is what I am talking about.

    You initally said, I brought it up. The context of my statement was in reply to 2 posters battling over whether being on the DL a lot meant many times on the DL or being on the DL for long periods of time. I was summarizing what posters on this site have said about Jacoby over recent years of much missed time. Nobody is disputing that he has missed a lot of time since 2009. 

    I said "it is hard to know" if any poster's position is right or wrong. How is that saying he is injury prone or a milker. I merely stated that these are some positions some have taken. I also offered a "low pain threshhold" or "none of the above" positions as viable views on the subject. I never said I was for or against any of these positions, but you assumed, just because I "brought them up", I am holding those views. Your position is absurd. I mentioned 4 varying viewpoints from one opposite extreme to the other, so it is impossible for me to haold all 4 views at once, yet you are acting like I am holding just the 2 that show Jacoby in a bad light. Nothing is further from the truth, and this is backed up by the fact that on numerous occasions, i have stated that I do not think jacoby will miss more than the normal amount of time over the next few years due to injury. This shows I actually hold more of the "none of the above" choice listed in my statement than the "milker" or "injury prone" choices. What's so hard to understand about that? You continue to try and label me as someone I am not, then keep arguing against the strawman you created.

    I have made thousands, literally thousands, of positive statements on Ellsbury over the years. To my knowledge, these are the only negative things I have ever said about Jacoby, beyond the joke you  about "Felixitis": (note- some of these statements were made years ago, and he has improved in these areas)

    1) He has a horrible/terrible arm.

    2) He used to take bad breaks and wrong angle on balls more than he should have or more often than CF'ers who are slower than him do. (I have said he has improved in this area since 2007-2009.)

    3) He runs into a lot of outs on the basepaths beyond CS. (This year's CS rate is fantastic!)

    4) He was more at fault for the collision that caused his injury than Beltre, since in my opinion, after watching the replay at least 20 times, he never called off Beltre. (Also, those who blamed Tito or Theo for having him in LF to begin with as the reason he got hurt is an absurd position.)

    5) Ellsbury has missed a lot of games since 2009, and that fact has hurt this team. I am "a little concerned".

    That's all I can think of. I could list litterally hundreds of positive points I have made on his behalf. In fact, Jacoby Ellsbury is the main reason softy and I are bitter advisarries.

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    Some posters have commented of Ellsbury's fielding but I didn't see any comments on the catch he made in Oakland a couple of nights ago when, at full speed, he made a diving backhanded grab of a ball drilled into right center. It was just a stunning, improbable catch.

    On another matter, just exactly how do we know that Bradley excel against Major League pitching, as Ellsbury has?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to trouts' comment:

    Some posters have commented of Ellsbury's fielding but I didn't see any comments on the catch he made in Oakland a couple of nights ago when, at full speed, he made a diving backhanded grab of a ball drilled into right center. It was just a stunning, improbable catch.

    He got a late break on that ball...

     

    ... just kidding!

     

    On another matter, just exactly how do we know that Bradley excel against Major League pitching, as Ellsbury has?



    We don't. We also don't know if Jacoby will excel vs ML pitching over the next 4-6 years of his new contract. We have a better idea than with JBJ, but we do know JBJ is a great fielder already.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to trouts' comment:

     

     

     

    Some posters have commented of Ellsbury's fielding but I didn't see any comments on the catch he made in Oakland a couple of nights ago when, at full speed, he made a diving backhanded grab of a ball drilled into right center. It was just a stunning, improbable catch.

    He got a late break on that ball...

     

    ... just kidding!

     

    On another matter, just exactly how do we know that Bradley excel against Major League pitching, as Ellsbury has?

     

     



    We don't. We also don't know if Jacoby will excel vs ML pitching over the next 4-6 years of his new contract. We have a better idea than with JBJ, but we do know JBJ is a great fielder already.

     

     

     




    In his healthy years, Ellsbury's WAR is 4.1 (2008), 2.1(2009), 9.1 (2011) and this half year is 3.5 for 2013. Which projects to ~7 for the full year; even with his lousy start.

     

    For his MLB career his total WAR is 21.7. Which is an average of 3.3, even when you count his injured years. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF

    There is no way (in my mind that) JBJ makes that up with marginally better definsive supperiority.

    And I would LOVE to see you justify that with numbers.

    BTW, since 2008, among center fielders with 2000 innings in the majors, Ellsbury (with injuries) ranks 10th in defensive center fielders.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=2000&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

    And he destroys everyone ahead of him defensively in overall value.

    -Daf.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW


    Pete Reiser never learned. He was hell-bent-for leather on the basepaths and, especillay the outfield. He ran into more fences than a NASCA driver. Until, that is, his brains got scattered all over Brooklyn and this potential .350 hitter turned into a civilian. Look at his record. Maybe Ellsbury has gotten the word because he's a much more carefull base runner and outfielder than he was when he barralled into Beltre (and vice versa). He is, bar far, the best lead off man in baseball. Give him what he's worth, and concentrate on finding a suitable firstbaseman.

     
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