Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW
posted at 7/14/2013 12:09 PM EDT
Now @ Moon...
With all due respect, what are doing, getting involved in --zzing contests?? You're too good for that. FYI you don't agree with what someone says, fine, let it go. Engaging in things like that only damages your reputation.
...and... You're beginning to sound like Softy with your comment of, "if you look at what Bourn and Cody Ross got last winter, but just because they were overpaid, it does not mean I think Ellsbury stinks, because I won't offer more than what those guys got."
"Overpaid" is one of those nebulous words Softy would throw out to try to justify his position. Given the continuing escalating salaries, I'm not sure what "overpaid" means anymore on the FA market. The only way to determine whether a player was overpaid is to look at the body of work during the duration of the contract, THEN make that decision.
Remembering that for the owners it's all about the money, no true value has been or can be assigned to a player by a fan because so many things come into play. A player who plays for a winning team is worth more than a player who doesn't. A player who's a fan favorite is worth more than one who isn't. Why? Because they bring more fans in who buy more TV subscriptions and come to the park more and buy more hot dogs and shirts. The more money a player can generate for an owner the more he's "worth". Because as little as us fans like to admit it, it IS all about the money - and how the owners can separate it from us to get it to them.
Bottom line: Ells is worth a lot of money, especially in Boston where he's a known commodity.
I know it is all about the money.
I am not like softy, who suggests offers at about 1/3 or 1/4th of what the players actually sign for.
Here's my point in a nutshel: I get the point that if Victorino is really worth $39M/3, then Ellsbury should be worth about $51M+/3. However, since I think SV was vastly overpaid and given a year too much, the fact that I would not offer Ellsbury $51M/3 does not mean I think Ellsbury stinks or is only as good as SV, because I'd offer him close to $39M/3 or $55M/4.
Posters read too much into what other say, because they make assumptions based on their own way of looking at a player's value- both in terms of actual skillset value and open market financial value.
I get your "overpaid" argument, and of course there is a lot more than just production that goes into a player's monetary value to a team. I have gone into great length trying to explain how I look at contract value in an overall team philosophy and a "could we upgrade at another position moreso with the same money" type outlook.
On Ellsbury, I do think the chances are we'd be downgraded in CF in 2014 with JBJ or SV out there, but at the cost of what I think Ellsbury's contract will be, I do not think that downgrade is about $15M/year worth, and that the money it would take to re-sign Ellsbury could be better used to upgrade positions not as strong as JBJ/Victorino.
We can upgrade at catcher with much less than $15M/yr and going with Lava/Ross/Vazquez scares me much more than going with JBJ?SV in CF next year.
We can upgrade at 3B or RF (assuming SV plays CF) with a power RH'd bat using some or all of the $15M/yr (plus maybe more) earmarked for Jacoby and fill a need we have had since trading Manny or losing JBay's production while here. To me, this is a higher need than keeping Jacoby. I could be wrong, but this is my opinion. Maybe I am overvaluing JBJ and SV as CF'ers. Maybe I am undervaluing Jacoby. Maybe I am doing a little of both, but it is my opinion, and I do not think I am way off base with it.
We can upgrade our starting rotation- something that needs to be done every so often, even if it looks like we are all set with 5-6 solid starters and young guys on the way. If we end up with a surplus, we can make out like bandits at the trade deadline anyways. Over recent years, we have needed over 50 starts from our 6th starter or lower. This year, we have actually been somewhat blessed to only miss about 15-20 starts so far. Even with the relatively good luck, we have used Aceves for 6, Webster for 6, morales for 1, and will be using Workman for 1- all before the break. That's 14 starts total- on a "good year". Pitchers are very costly on the "open market" or via trade. Getting a top of rotation type SP could eat up a big chunk of the available budget money this winter, and although the "on paper upgrade" may not match the cost involved, we should plan on one or more of our SP'ers going down with an injury or dropping off a cliff productionwise. If it doesn't happen, we trade one of our SPs (maybe Lester while on his last year of his deal) at the deadline.
We need to upgrade our pen in a bad way. It may not cost big bucks, unless we try to sign a big-named closer, but it will take some money to just patch it up a little.
In short, while I think there's a good chance JBJ does well in CF, Bogaerts does well at 3B, one of Carp/Nava/Middlebrooks does well at 1B, and one of Morales, Webster, Aceves, Workman, Wright, Ranaudo, DLR, or someone else does well as a 5/6 starter, I do not think a contending team can count on all of these to happen at once, plus I did not even mention the fact that Iggy could bat .240 next year and nobody would be shocked, Nava could drop off sharply as could SV, Papi, or others. I want Jacoby back. I just don't think the downgrade in CF is as much as we can upgrade elsewhere.