Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW
posted at 7/20/2013 12:29 AM EDT
If Jacoby hits 10 Hrs in the last 55 games, will any GM really know much more than they know now? Will they really be any more sure of anything? I happen to think the influence would be minimal, unless he goes nutty in the playoffs as well.
Yes. It's called scouting. Measuring strength, timeing, bat plane, bat speed, how he squares to the ball etc...
Scouting does not project future performance. It helps, but no scout will ever tell you that the most recent 55 games alone should be used to project future performance, especially at Ellsbury's age and experience point of his career. I am sure any scout may see that Ellsbury is in a groove right now, but looking over his career and recent years, would caution his boss that down streaks are possible as well into the future.
Some GMs may place more value in 1/3 season sample sample sizes than others, but I seriously doubt any use it a major tool for projecting future productivity.
Yes, his last 2-4 year combined is something GMs will look at. Maybe some value the last 5 year numbers more than career numbers, or they use both. My point is that I doubt GMs value your most recent 55 games more than the larger recent sample size values.
GM's, and owners, understand the difference between averages and trends. I know Henry does, he made billions understanding the difference. And a strong finish to this already strong season is strong evidence that Ellsbury is fully recovered from his 2012 injuries and able to deliver more than just OBP and speed.
Yes, there is "evidence", but to me, it is still not conclusive. Another 55 games may strengthen this belief, but I was really pointing to the statement on HRs over the final 1/3 of a season. Jacoby's .370 OBP is nice. It is a bit higher than is career number. I'm not sure if any scout would project .370+ for the next 5 years, but I suppose it could be true.
Boras will spin the story, and some GM will fall for it. Jacoby will be offered more than what Ben values Jacoby at minus the draft pick we'd get if he walks. That is the part that some here miss. The draft pick value is worth a lot to Ben, so by signing Jacoby, we lose that value.
Hmmm, what are the odds that a draft pick will return in a 30-30 guy who finishes second in MVP? Pretty close to Zero.
That wasn't the point. My point was that the comp pick has value. That value can be added to the players we get instead of Jacoby, and could, in theory, tip the balance in favor of letting Jacoby walk, giving JBJ a chance, watching $90-100M spent on 2-3 other free agents do their work, and then enjoy the fuits of that draft pick 4-10 years in the future.
To me, Jacoby will be playing elsewhere next year. We will spend his money elsewhere, and I hope we do a little better than we did with this year's FA crop:
Victorino - out too much to judge properly, but not much of a plus so far at $13M
Dempster - has done fine, had poor run support, but $13M is a lot for a 5 starter
Napoli - started very well: will probably get paid over $11M this year
Drew - fielded better than I expected, but has missed a lot of time
Gomes - coming on strong
D Ross - Injured
Uehara - fantastic signing
Drew is gone next year, that's $9.5 million off the books and Iglesias will play for the minimum, so that's $9 to add to Jake's curremt salary and gives him ~$18 and that will still give us ~$170m salary that's less than the 2007 world series championship team.
It's not that simple. There will be arb raises, a possible Pedey extension, the Lester $13M option, and key positions like catcher, 1B, 3B, and the pen to restock.
Hanrahan is another $7m. Bailey, another $4.1m.
I suspect Uehara will be back, probably with a raise.
A stacked farm system loaded with top prospects that won't cost significant money for years.
I don't see the advantage of 1 extra draft pick vs a proven top 10 outfielder who has even more upside.
To me, Ellsbury is a keeper, and the longer we wait, the more he's gonna cost. (But that's probably a fait accompli now).
Again, the draft pick could be the balance tipper. The equation is not Ellsbury vs JBJ and a draft pick, it is Jacoby vs JBJ, the draft pick and $100M to spend on several positions of great need.