Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW
posted at 7/22/2013 12:59 PM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to dgalehouse's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
It is possible to watch the spending and put together a contending team as some teams have been able to do. But if you have the money to spend in a big market, you should spend it and spend it wisely. I don't know how much Ellsbury will be offered in free agency, but I do think he is one of the top players in the game today. If the Sox can sign him without breaking the bank, they should do it. This year they are paying 23 million to Dempster and Drew. For what ? Mediocrity and more mediocrity.
I was against those signings and Victorino's as well.
I don't see how bringing up these signings helps your case. To me it makes it shakier. Think of it this way: everyone here seems to think that because we have so little money on the books over the next few years, $18+M a year for Jacoby will hardly restrict us at all, but what if a few of the other guys we sign turn out like Dempster, Drew and Shane? Mediocrity. Then we will need more to fill the gaps, and it may not be there, because one player out of 40 is eating up 1/9th of the payroll budget.
Why do you now trust Ben to fill the gaps with anything more than mediacrity?
I happen to think this won't happen. I still trust Ben to do better with next year's signings. We have been snake bitten a bit this year with our signings, IMO.
BTW, what is "not breaking the bank" to you?
We may be arguing about nothing here. Jacoby will probably get $16-20M a year x 5-6 years. Is $90M/5 breaking the bank?
I can't give you a number that breaks the bank. That is up to John Henry. We can speculate all we want to. It means nothing. I just want to see us put our best possible team on the field within whatever our spending limitations are. I think the best way to do that is to try and lock up your core players, add in your young, low cost talent and spend on the needed pieces in free agency. It is not easy to do all that and do it right. As far as Ellsbury is concerned ; I think he is one of our best players, and it would be good to try and keep him. As for a dollar amount , I don't know. Obviously , it is always a risk. You could end up regretting any long term, big money contract. If I was a wealthy team owner in a big market, I would try my best to give the fans a championship team. But I would not be in business to lose money either. So , I can't answer your question about how much it takes to break the bank here. Sorry.
I also think Jacoby is one of our best players.
Pedey, Papi, Ells and Buch is a super core.
With Papi probably retiring after 2015 or declining steeply by then, I can see the reasoning behind wanting to keep Jacoby around.
Of course we don't know really know what "breaking the bank" is, since henry can, at any time, just give the okay to go way over the luxury treshhold, but I am going on the assumption that we will try and stay under the limit or very near it for years to come.
Based on that assumption, I think $90M/5 or $105M/6 is over the top. As much as I want Ellsbury here for 5 more years, I just can't see spending that big a percent of the payroll budget on Jacoby. Pedroia will probably be taking up 1/9th of the budget soon, and we will need to fill some big shoes over the next few years as well.
I like the direction we are going. I like building a balanced team and looking to the extended future as much as the here and now. Maybe I am over-valuing JBJ and the comp draft pick. Maybe I am showing too much faith in Ben to spend the $90-105M wisely elsewhere. Certainly, if Ellsbury was making $18M this year, he is outplaying what Ben spent money on this past winter for the most part...
SV $13M + Gomes $5M = $18M
Demp + D Ross
Drew + Gomes + D Ross
I'd sure hate to see Ellsbury have 4-5 seasons like 2011 on another team.
Personaly, I believe Papi might be one of those rare players, like Yaz, who lasts into his 40's. I would love it if the Sox gave him a Wakefield like contract going forward. Plus it seems kinda unfair how he gets a -17.1 on his dWar, when he's only played 258 defensive games in his career.
And I'd hate to see Ells have a year or two like this one on another team. A 6 WAR on the Yankees would kill me.