In response to DaffyDan's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to trouts' comment:
Some posters have commented of Ellsbury's fielding but I didn't see any comments on the catch he made in Oakland a couple of nights ago when, at full speed, he made a diving backhanded grab of a ball drilled into right center. It was just a stunning, improbable catch.
He got a late break on that ball...
... just kidding!
On another matter, just exactly how do we know that Bradley excel against Major League pitching, as Ellsbury has?
We don't. We also don't know if Jacoby will excel vs ML pitching over the next 4-6 years of his new contract. We have a better idea than with JBJ, but we do know JBJ is a great fielder already.
In his healthy years, Ellsbury's WAR is 4.1 (2008), 2.1(2009), 9.1 (2011) and this half year is 3.5 for 2013. Which projects to ~7 for the full year; even with his lousy start.
We've played over 100 games- we are not halfway, so his projected WAR should be about 5.5 to 6.0 not ~7.
For his MLB career his total WAR is 21.7. Which is an average of 3.3, even when you count his injured years. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF
There is no way (in my mind that) JBJ makes that up with marginally better definsive supperiority.
I never said he would. My hope is that for the $70-100M it might take to keep Jacoby here, the downgrade in CF from Ellsbury to JBJ can be more than made up for at other positions where the alternative is not as good as JBJ projects to be (as with Lava instead of Salty).
And I would LOVE to see you justify that with numbers.
Nobody can, because it would be pure speculation. Comparing AA and AAA numbers between Jacoby and JBJ show they are pretty even, but that is not "justification" for anything, IMO.
BTW, since 2008, among center fielders with 2000 innings in the majors, Ellsbury (with injuries) ranks 10th in defensive center fielders.
And he destroys everyone ahead of him defensively in overall value.
Yes, Jacoby has improved on his defense a lot since 2007-2009. His arm is still weak, but with Fenway's large CF and R-CF, it's nice to have speed at that position. His bat, speed in CF and on the basepaths, and decent leadoff OBP will be missed, no doubt. I'd love to have him back next year, but out budget is limited and we have 4-5 open slots for 2014 and the extended future to think about.
It's a trade off. What we spend one place- we don't spend in another. There is justification in re-signing Jacoby, but to me, the draft choice we get with him walking, the promise of JBJ, the ability of Shane V to cover CF, and the high need areas elsewhere on this team, tips the balance to make a fair offer to Jacoby (my numbers is lower than many here: about $52-55M/4 tops), but probably not enough to outbid some maniac GM out there.