Yes, Jacoby has improved on his defense a lot since 2007-2009. His arm is still weak, but with Fenway's large CF and R-CF, it's nice to have speed at that position. His bat, speed in CF and on the basepaths, and decent leadoff OBP will be missed, no doubt. I'd love to have him back next year, but out budget is limited and we have 4-5 open slots for 2014 and the extended future to think about.
It's a trade off. What we spend one place- we don't spend in another. There is justification in re-signing Jacoby, but to me, the draft choice we get with him walking, the promise of JBJ, the ability of Shane V to cover CF, and the high need areas elsewhere on this team, tips the balance to make a fair offer to Jacoby (my numbers is lower than many here: about $52-55M/4 tops), but probably not enough to outbid some maniac GM out there.
I hate arguing with the numbers guru because I'm afraid I'm going to get "mine" handed to me, but.....
No, Moon! No, no, no. His arm is the only solid deficiency that can be found in his game - "bad jumps" and "Bad paths" are more subjective, AND no matter what route he takes to get to the ball... he gets there on time! I'll live with that bad arm as a trade-off against everything else he does right.
I am not saying "bad breaks and angles" is still a weakness of Jacoby. I said it used to be, but he has improved. I don't need him to be the very best at every aspect of the game to want him on our team next year and beyond, but I will say that with his exceptional speed, I would expect better range numbers on UZR. Again, he is plus in range right now, so no complaints here. (I'm not sure JBJ has better range: he may get better breaks, but isn't as fast, so that area may be a push... hard to know.)
To say that you want to put JBJ or Victorino out there is wishful thinking. Wishful that either of them are going to get the job done.
I'd rather have Ellsbury than JBJ/SV in 2014, but beyond that it gets more speculative. My point was that the drop off from Ellsbury to JBJ does not scare me as much as the drop off from Salty to Lava plus other upgrades we could do with the leftover money.
JBJ is may eventually become a better OF than Ells but he's not yet. Ells has spent years learning how to play MLB and that's not something you learn overnight. And Victorino? As our everyday CF? Really? He's missed how many games already this year?? With how many different ailments? And you think he's going to be ready to play 150+ next year? I truly hate, hate, hate to agree with Scott Boras but the best OF for the Sox next year IS JBJ in LF, Ells in CF and Victorino in RF for the 80 days when Vic plays, and with JBJ moving to RF on the other 80 days.
I am only guessing we will be allright with SV and JBJ in CF next year, but it is a gamble, but so is spending almost half our winter spending budget on one player, and then trying to fill 4-5 other slots with the rest (1B, 3B, C, SP, RP, RP)
Neither of those guys are going to bring what Ells brings on the offensive side of the ball. Ells makes the offense run. This team is much better when he's getting on base. The people up after him (Vic and Pedey) are getting more pitches to hit and Ells continued threat to steal has to be disruptive to the pitchers giving Vic and Pedey more pitches to hit WELL. Ells is a vital cog in this offense.
As to salary now....
I agree that he's going to be expensive, but quality costs money. If things go the way they're going now in 2014 we could very well have a cheap 3B, a cheap SS, and a cheap 1B (Bogarts, Iggy, Middy).
OK, this is where I have to stop you. You just went to great lengths talking about how long it takes to learn to play in MLB, and how JBJ is a gamble to stick in CF, but now, you seem to casually mention handing 3B, 1B, and SS to very young players- most with less than 160 games in MLB- Boggy with zero.
I fully expect Pedy to take a hometown discount. He won't be cheap but won't demand top dollar either. Lackey is going to be pitching next year for.. is it the ML minimum? Whtever, it's below his value.
Lackey's min wage deal is 2015.
Dubront is looking like a solid lefty pitcher (cheap) and it's hard to feature Lester (if he's still with the team) demanding big bucks after the year he's having. It's not like Moon is talking about spending less money. He's talking about spending the same money to cobble together an assortment of players who'll make up for Ellsbury's offense. Even if we could, why would we do it when we have a known quantity of Ells right there in front of us?
Because, by my figures, we have about $44M to spend in 2014. I like our rotation, but I am always one to want to upgrade from the top almost every year, and that is very costly. If we end up with too many starters, we can trade one at the deadline to a desperate GM and get twice his value. We also need a catcher, 3Bman, 1Bman, and 2-3 relief pitchers, including perhaps a closer. I know, we will use some kids at these slots, and Bogaerts seems to be an easier gamble than JBJ, but Middy, Lava, Webster, Wilson and de la Torre scare me more.
If Ells could be signed for 5/$15 (my figure, and I could be persuaded to go a bit higher) we should sign him immediately. Bill James has said that a player reaches his peak between 28-32, and Ells would be barely 35 (Sept) at the end of that 5 year contract.
I do not think $75M/5 will do the trick. About half of a 5 year deal will be post-prime.
Just do it, will ya?
I would not complain if we got him for $75M/5
Ok Moon, have at me! LOL\
Not really much I disagree with.