Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to trouts' comment:

     

     

     

    Some posters have commented of Ellsbury's fielding but I didn't see any comments on the catch he made in Oakland a couple of nights ago when, at full speed, he made a diving backhanded grab of a ball drilled into right center. It was just a stunning, improbable catch.

    He got a late break on that ball...

     

    ... just kidding!

     

    On another matter, just exactly how do we know that Bradley excel against Major League pitching, as Ellsbury has?

     

     



    We don't. We also don't know if Jacoby will excel vs ML pitching over the next 4-6 years of his new contract. We have a better idea than with JBJ, but we do know JBJ is a great fielder already.

     

     

     




    In his healthy years, Ellsbury's WAR is 4.1 (2008), 2.1(2009), 9.1 (2011) and this half year is 3.5 for 2013. Which projects to ~7 for the full year; even with his lousy start.

    We've played over 100 games- we are not halfway, so his projected WAR should be about 5.5 to 6.0 not ~7.

     

    For his MLB career his total WAR is 21.7. Which is an average of 3.3, even when you count his injured years. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF

    There is no way (in my mind that) JBJ makes that up with marginally better definsive supperiority.

    I never said he would. My hope is that for the $70-100M it might take to keep Jacoby here, the downgrade in CF from Ellsbury to JBJ can be more than made up for at other positions where the alternative is not as good as JBJ projects to be (as with Lava instead of Salty).

    And I would LOVE to see you justify that with numbers.

    Nobody can, because it would be pure speculation. Comparing AA and AAA numbers between Jacoby and JBJ show they are pretty even, but that is not "justification" for anything, IMO.

     

    BTW, since 2008, among center fielders with 2000 innings in the majors, Ellsbury (with injuries) ranks 10th in defensive center fielders.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=2000&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

    And he destroys everyone ahead of him defensively in overall value.

    -Daf.




    Yes, Jacoby has improved on his defense a lot since 2007-2009. His arm is still weak, but with Fenway's large CF and R-CF, it's nice to have speed at that position. His bat, speed in CF and on the basepaths, and decent leadoff OBP will be missed, no doubt. I'd love to have him back next year, but out budget is limited and we have 4-5 open slots for 2014 and the extended future to think about.

    It's a trade off. What we spend one place- we don't spend in another. There is justification in re-signing Jacoby, but to  me, the draft choice we get with him walking, the promise of JBJ, the ability of Shane V to cover CF, and the high need areas elsewhere on this team, tips the balance to make a fair offer to Jacoby (my numbers is lower than many here: about $52-55M/4 tops), but probably not enough to outbid some maniac GM out there.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to trouts' comment:

     

     

     

    Some posters have commented of Ellsbury's fielding but I didn't see any comments on the catch he made in Oakland a couple of nights ago when, at full speed, he made a diving backhanded grab of a ball drilled into right center. It was just a stunning, improbable catch.

    He got a late break on that ball...

     

    ... just kidding!

     

    On another matter, just exactly how do we know that Bradley excel against Major League pitching, as Ellsbury has?

     

     



    We don't. We also don't know if Jacoby will excel vs ML pitching over the next 4-6 years of his new contract. We have a better idea than with JBJ, but we do know JBJ is a great fielder already.

     

     

     




    In his healthy years, Ellsbury's WAR is 4.1 (2008), 2.1(2009), 9.1 (2011) and this half year is 3.5 for 2013. Which projects to ~7 for the full year; even with his lousy start.

    We've played over 100 games- we are not halfway, so his projected WAR should be about 5.5 to 6.0 not ~7.

     

    For his MLB career his total WAR is 21.7. Which is an average of 3.3, even when you count his injured years. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF

    There is no way (in my mind that) JBJ makes that up with marginally better definsive supperiority.

    I never said he would. My hope is that for the $70-100M it might take to keep Jacoby here, the downgrade in CF from Ellsbury to JBJ can be more than made up for at other positions where the alternative is not as good as JBJ projects to be (as with Lava instead of Salty).

    And I would LOVE to see you justify that with numbers.

    Nobody can, because it would be pure speculation. Comparing AA and AAA numbers between Jacoby and JBJ show they are pretty even, but that is not "justification" for anything, IMO.

     

    BTW, since 2008, among center fielders with 2000 innings in the majors, Ellsbury (with injuries) ranks 10th in defensive center fielders.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=2000&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

    And he destroys everyone ahead of him defensively in overall value.

    -Daf.

     

     



     

     

    Yes, Jacoby has improved on his defense a lot since 2007-2009. His arm is still weak, but with Fenway's large CF and R-CF, it's nice to have speed at that position. His bat, speed in CF and on the basepaths, and decent leadoff OBP will be missed, no doubt. I'd love to have him back next year, but out budget is limited and we have 4-5 open slots for 2014 and the extended future to think about.

    It's a trade off. What we spend one place- we don't spend in another. There is justification in re-signing Jacoby, but to  me, the draft choice we get with him walking, the promise of JBJ, the ability of Shane V to cover CF, and the high need areas elsewhere on this team, tips the balance to make a fair offer to Jacoby (my numbers is lower than many here: about $52-55M/4 tops), but probably not enough to outbid some maniac GM out there.

     



     

    Thanks for the WAR correction, yeah 5.5-6 is more like it.


    I think $70-$80 over 5 might seem cheap in coming years.

    Personally, I have more concerns about Shane's health than Jake's, he has so many nagging physical issues and only played 101 games last year.

    If Jake averaged 5 War over the next 5 years what would his value be? If he just hit his average of 3.3? In 2012 Austin Jackson had a war of 5.2 and Fangraphs said that was worth $23Million.

    I really don't think we would even be able to get him for under $20M a year if not for the freak injuries that got him the oft-injured label, and I think $70-$80Million over 5 would be a buy low oportunity that cannot be replaced with prospects or incremental spending someplace else. 

    Winning requires risk, and one can be overly risk averse in evaluating it, and I think most here are.

    -Daf. 

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Yes, Jacoby has improved on his defense a lot since 2007-2009. His arm is still weak, but with Fenway's large CF and R-CF, it's nice to have speed at that position. His bat, speed in CF and on the basepaths, and decent leadoff OBP will be missed, no doubt. I'd love to have him back next year, but out budget is limited and we have 4-5 open slots for 2014 and the extended future to think about.

    It's a trade off. What we spend one place- we don't spend in another. There is justification in re-signing Jacoby, but to  me, the draft choice we get with him walking, the promise of JBJ, the ability of Shane V to cover CF, and the high need areas elsewhere on this team, tips the balance to make a fair offer to Jacoby (my numbers is lower than many here: about $52-55M/4 tops), but probably not enough to outbid some maniac GM out there.



    I hate arguing with the numbers guru because I'm afraid I'm going to get "mine" handed to me, Smile but.....   

    No, Moon!  No, no, no.  His arm is the only solid deficiency that can be found in his game - "bad jumps" and "Bad paths" are more subjective, AND no matter what route he takes to get to the ball... he gets there on time!  I'll live with that bad arm as a trade-off against everything else he does right.

    To say that you want to put JBJ or Victorino out there is wishful thinking.  Wishful that either of them are going to get the job done.  JBJ is may eventually become a better OF than Ells but he's not yet. Ells has spent years learning how to play MLB and that's not something you learn overnight.  And Victorino?  As our everyday CF?  Really?  He's missed how many games already this year??  With how many different ailments?  And you think he's going to be ready to play 150+ next year? I truly hate, hate, hate to agree with Scott Boras but the best OF for the Sox next year IS JBJ in LF, Ells in CF and Victorino in RF for the 80 days when Vic plays, and with JBJ moving to RF on the other 80 days.   

    Neither of those guys are going to bring what Ells brings on the offensive side of the ball.  Ells makes the offense run.  This team is much better when he's getting on base.   The people up after him (Vic and Pedey) are getting more pitches to hit and Ells continued threat to steal has to be disruptive to the pitchers giving Vic and Pedey more pitches to hit WELL.  Ells is a vital cog in this offense.

    As to salary now....

    I agree that he's going to be expensive, but quality costs money. If things go the way they're going now in 2014 we could very well have a cheap 3B, a cheap SS, and a cheap 1B (Bogarts, Iggy, Middy).  I fully expect Pedy to take a hometown discount.  He won't be cheap but won't demand top dollar either.  Lackey is going to be pitching next year for.. is it the ML minimum?  Whatever, it's below his value.  Dubront is looking like a solid lefty pitcher (cheap) and it's hard to feature Lester (if he's still with the team) demanding big bucks after the year he's having.  It's not like Moon is talking about spending less money. He's talking about spending the same money to cobble together an assortment of players who'll make up for Ellsbury's offense.  Even if we could, why would we do it when we have a known quantity of Ells  right there in front of us?

    If Ells could be signed for 5/$15 (my figure, and I could be persuaded to go a bit higher) we should sign him immediately.  Bill James has said that a player reaches his peak between 28-32, and Ells would be barely 35 (Sept) at the end of that 5 year contract. 

    Just do it, will ya?

    Ok Moon, have at me!  LOL

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Yes, Jacoby has improved on his defense a lot since 2007-2009. His arm is still weak, but with Fenway's large CF and R-CF, it's nice to have speed at that position. His bat, speed in CF and on the basepaths, and decent leadoff OBP will be missed, no doubt. I'd love to have him back next year, but out budget is limited and we have 4-5 open slots for 2014 and the extended future to think about.

    It's a trade off. What we spend one place- we don't spend in another. There is justification in re-signing Jacoby, but to  me, the draft choice we get with him walking, the promise of JBJ, the ability of Shane V to cover CF, and the high need areas elsewhere on this team, tips the balance to make a fair offer to Jacoby (my numbers is lower than many here: about $52-55M/4 tops), but probably not enough to outbid some maniac GM out there.

     



    I hate arguing with the numbers guru because I'm afraid I'm going to get "mine" handed to me, Smile but.....   

     

    No, Moon!  No, no, no.  His arm is the only solid deficiency that can be found in his game - "bad jumps" and "Bad paths" are more subjective, AND no matter what route he takes to get to the ball... he gets there on time!  I'll live with that bad arm as a trade-off against everything else he does right.

    To say that you want to put JBJ or Victorino out there is wishful thinking.  Wishful that either of them are going to get the job done.  JBJ is may eventually become a better OF than Ells but he's not yet. Ells has spent years learning how to play MLB and that's not something you learn overnight.  And Victorino?  As our everyday CF?  Really?  He's missed how many games already this year??  With how many different ailments?  And you think he's going to be ready to play 150+ next year? I truly hate, hate, hate to agree with Scott Boras but the best OF for the Sox next year IS JBJ in LF, Ells in CF and Victorino in RF for the 80 days when Vic plays, and with JBJ moving to RF on the other 80 days.   

    Neither of those guys are going to bring what Ells brings on the offensive side of the ball.  Ells makes the offense run.  This team is much better when he's getting on base.   The people up after him (Vic and Pedey) are getting more pitches to hit and Ells continued threat to steal has to be disruptive to the pitchers giving Vic and Pedey more pitches to hit WELL.  Ells is a vital cog in this offense.

    As to salary now....

    I agree that he's going to be expensive, but quality costs money. If things go the way they're going now in 2014 we could very well have a cheap 3B, a cheap SS, and a cheap 1B (Bogarts, Iggy, Middy).  I fully expect Pedy to take a hometown discount.  He won't be cheap but won't demand top dollar either.  Lackey is going to be pitching next year for.. is it the ML minimum?  Whatever, it's below his value.  Dubront is looking like a solid lefty pitcher (cheap) and it's hard to feature Lester (if he's still with the team) demanding big bucks after the year he's having.  It's not like Moon is talking about spending less money. He's talking about spending the same money to cobble together an assortment of players who'll make up for Ellsbury's offense.  Even if we could, why would we do it when we have a known quantity of Ells  right there in front of us?

    If Ells could be signed for 5/$15 (my figure, and I could be persuaded to go a bit higher) we should sign him immediately.  Bill James has said that a player reaches his peak between 28-32, and Ells would be barely 35 (Sept) at the end of that 5 year contract. 

    Just do it, will ya?

    Ok Moon, have at me!  LOL

    [/QUOTE]

    Scott Boras said today that they won't be discussing Ellsbury's future contract until the end of the season.  He's going to test the market and he'll have plenty of suitors.  

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to jasko2248's comment:


    Scott Boras said today that they won't be discussing Ellsbury's future contract until the end of the season.  He's going to test the market and he'll have plenty of suitors.  



    If I found a genie's lamp I have a couple of wishes I'd make:

    1)  I'd wish that more players would take Dustin Pedroia's attitude of, 'I love what I'm doing so I don't have to be the highest paid player at my position.  And what would I do with all that extra money anyway?'

    2)  I'd wish that players would tell their agents to NOT speak for them.  I'd like for the players to make their own decisions regarding when they'll negotiate, who they'll play for, and how much money they'll make and I'd like for the players to keep the agents out of it until the agent is needed... if ever.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    Yes, Jacoby has improved on his defense a lot since 2007-2009. His arm is still weak, but with Fenway's large CF and R-CF, it's nice to have speed at that position. His bat, speed in CF and on the basepaths, and decent leadoff OBP will be missed, no doubt. I'd love to have him back next year, but out budget is limited and we have 4-5 open slots for 2014 and the extended future to think about.

    It's a trade off. What we spend one place- we don't spend in another. There is justification in re-signing Jacoby, but to  me, the draft choice we get with him walking, the promise of JBJ, the ability of Shane V to cover CF, and the high need areas elsewhere on this team, tips the balance to make a fair offer to Jacoby (my numbers is lower than many here: about $52-55M/4 tops), but probably not enough to outbid some maniac GM out there.

     



     

    Thanks for the WAR correction, yeah 5.5-6 is more like it.


    I think $70-$80 over 5 might seem cheap in coming years.

    Compared to what some other have been getting< I don't disagree.

     

    Personally, I have more concerns about Shane's health than Jake's, he has so many nagging physical issues and only played 101 games last year.

    I agree, but it's nice to have Nava to play RF (although not all that great) and Gomes/Carp to play LF next year, if Shane goes down. Brentz may surprise us too.

     

    If Jake averaged 5 War over the next 5 years what would his value be? If he just hit his average of 3.3? In 2012 Austin Jackson had a war of 5.2 and Fangraphs said that was worth $23Million.

    Players usually decline after age 31 or so, so there in may lie the rub. 

     

    I really don't think we would even be able to get him for under $20M a year if not for the freak injuries that got him the oft-injured label, and I think $70-$80Million over 5 would be a buy low oportunity that cannot be replaced with prospects or incremental spending someplace else. 

    I would not complain if we got him for $70-75M/4, but that's bit higher than my top offer. He will likely get $85-90M+/5, in my opinion.

     

    Winning requires risk, and one can be overly risk averse in evaluating it, and I think most here are.

    To me, it's not his injury risk that scares me. It's part age regression issues, and comparing what else we can get for that money plus the draft choice when he walks.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    Yes, Jacoby has improved on his defense a lot since 2007-2009. His arm is still weak, but with Fenway's large CF and R-CF, it's nice to have speed at that position. His bat, speed in CF and on the basepaths, and decent leadoff OBP will be missed, no doubt. I'd love to have him back next year, but out budget is limited and we have 4-5 open slots for 2014 and the extended future to think about.

    It's a trade off. What we spend one place- we don't spend in another. There is justification in re-signing Jacoby, but to  me, the draft choice we get with him walking, the promise of JBJ, the ability of Shane V to cover CF, and the high need areas elsewhere on this team, tips the balance to make a fair offer to Jacoby (my numbers is lower than many here: about $52-55M/4 tops), but probably not enough to outbid some maniac GM out there.

     



    I hate arguing with the numbers guru because I'm afraid I'm going to get "mine" handed to me, Smile but.....    

     

    No, Moon!  No, no, no.  His arm is the only solid deficiency that can be found in his game - "bad jumps" and "Bad paths" are more subjective, AND no matter what route he takes to get to the ball... he gets there on time!  I'll live with that bad arm as a trade-off against everything else he does right.

    I am not saying "bad breaks and angles" is still a weakness of Jacoby. I said it used to be, but he has improved. I don't need him to be the very best at every aspect of the game to want him on our team next year and beyond, but I will say that with his exceptional speed, I would expect better range numbers on UZR. Again, he is plus in range right now, so no complaints here. (I'm not sure JBJ has better range: he may get better breaks, but isn't as fast, so that area may be a push... hard to know.)

     

    To say that you want to put JBJ or Victorino out there is wishful thinking.  Wishful that either of them are going to get the job done.  

    I'd rather have Ellsbury than JBJ/SV in 2014, but beyond that it gets more speculative. My point was that the drop off from Ellsbury to JBJ does not scare me as much as the drop off from Salty to Lava plus other upgrades we could do with the leftover money.

     

    JBJ is may eventually become a better OF than Ells but he's not yet. Ells has spent years learning how to play MLB and that's not something you learn overnight.  And Victorino?  As our everyday CF?  Really?  He's missed how many games already this year??  With how many different ailments?  And you think he's going to be ready to play 150+ next year? I truly hate, hate, hate to agree with Scott Boras but the best OF for the Sox next year IS JBJ in LF, Ells in CF and Victorino in RF for the 80 days when Vic plays, and with JBJ moving to RF on the other 80 days.   

    I am only guessing we will be allright with SV and JBJ in CF next year, but it is a gamble, but so is spending almost half our winter spending budget on one player, and then trying to fill 4-5 other slots with the rest (1B, 3B, C, SP, RP, RP)

     

    Neither of those guys are going to bring what Ells brings on the offensive side of the ball.  Ells makes the offense run.  This team is much better when he's getting on base.   The people up after him (Vic and Pedey) are getting more pitches to hit and Ells continued threat to steal has to be disruptive to the pitchers giving Vic and Pedey more pitches to hit WELL.  Ells is a vital cog in this offense.

    Agreed.

     

    As to salary now....

    I agree that he's going to be expensive, but quality costs money. If things go the way they're going now in 2014 we could very well have a cheap 3B, a cheap SS, and a cheap 1B (Bogarts, Iggy, Middy). 

    OK, this is where I have to stop you. You just went to great lengths talking about how long it takes to learn to play in MLB, and how JBJ is a gamble to stick in CF, but now, you seem to casually mention handing 3B, 1B, and SS to very young players- most with less than 160 games in MLB- Boggy with zero.

    I fully expect Pedy to take a hometown discount.  He won't be cheap but won't demand top dollar either.  Lackey is going to be pitching next year for.. is it the ML minimum?  Whtever, it's below his value. 

    Lackey's min wage deal is 2015.

     

    Dubront is looking like a solid lefty pitcher (cheap) and it's hard to feature Lester (if he's still with the team) demanding big bucks after the year he's having.  It's not like Moon is talking about spending less money. He's talking about spending the same money to cobble together an assortment of players who'll make up for Ellsbury's offense.  Even if we could, why would we do it when we have a known quantity of Ells  right there in front of us?

    Because, by my figures, we have about $44M to spend in 2014. I like our rotation, but I am always one to want to upgrade from the top almost every year, and that is very costly. If we end up with too many starters, we can trade one at the deadline to a desperate GM and get twice his value. We also need a catcher, 3Bman, 1Bman, and 2-3 relief pitchers, including perhaps a closer. I know, we will use some kids at these slots, and Bogaerts seems to be an easier gamble than JBJ, but Middy, Lava, Webster, Wilson and de la Torre scare me more.

     

    If Ells could be signed for 5/$15 (my figure, and I could be persuaded to go a bit higher) we should sign him immediately.  Bill James has said that a player reaches his peak between 28-32, and Ells would be barely 35 (Sept) at the end of that 5 year contract. 

    I do not think $75M/5 will do the trick. About half of a 5 year deal will be post-prime.

    Just do it, will ya?

    I would not complain if we got him for $75M/5

     

    Ok Moon, have at me!  LOL\

    Not really much I disagree with.

     

    Sox4ever

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to jader's comment:


    Let him go! He's always hurt, like that glass tree ornament, Coco Crisp was better and so is Bradley Jr




    troll

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to jader's comment:


    Let him go! He's always hurt, like that glass tree ornament, Coco Crisp was better and so is Bradley Jr



    Is softy back?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jader's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     


    Let him go! He's always hurt, like that glass tree ornament, Coco Crisp was better and so is Bradley Jr

     



    Is softy back?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    it would seem. i also noticed a few other "new" posters who remarkably write just like the stiff one.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    http://nesn.com/2013/07/red-sox-would-like-keep-jacoby-ellsbury-according-to-john-henry/

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to J-BAY's comment:



    Who wouldn't like to "keep Jacoby"? Maybe some resdient clown, but that's about it. 

    The sticking point is the cost. Regardless of what some posters believe, the Sox do have a somewhat restricted player payroll budget. To spend on one player means not spending elsewhere. It basically comes down to this:

    We may have close to $44M to spend this winter and have about 4-6 holes to fill with free agents or from within the system. There is some merit to the idea of letting 3-4 kids take full time roles next year and spend big to fill 2-3 with guys like Ellsbury eating up 35-45% of the winter spending bidget by himself. 

    Myself, I think Ellsbury will be over-priced (as are all big-named FAs), and I think we can do better with money by spreading it out over more open slots without blocking our prospects too much (sorter term deals if possible). The tipping point for me is the comp draft pick we get by offering Jacoby the qualifying offer and watching him bolt for the big paycheck elsewhere. How much is a comp pick worth these days to a team that has done remarkably well with these picks over the years? Try to assign a dollar amount and then add that to what you want to offer Jacoby. No other team has that factor involved when determining his value.

    These are some players we have drafted with comp picks since 2005:

    2005: Buchholz & Egan (Pedro), Ellsbury & Lowrie (Cabrera), and Hansen & Bowden (Lowe)

    2006: Bard & K Johnson (Damon) and A Bates & C Clay (Mueller)

    2007: Hagadone (Gonzo) and Ryan Dent (Foulke) 

    2008: B Price (Gagne) and S Fife (H Morris)

    2009: No comp picks

    2010: Ranaudo & Vitek (Wagner) and Brentz & Workman (J Bay) 

    2011: Barnes & Owens (VMart) and Swihart & JBJ (Beltre)

    2012: B Johnson & P Light (Papelbon)

    24 Overall picks.

    2 Great: Ellsbury & Buchholz

    2 Good: Bard & Lowrie

    7 Looking Good: Ranaudo, Brentz, Workman, Barnes, Owens, JBJ, and Swihart

    2 Too early to tell: Johnson & Light

    11 busts or probable busts (some brought us players via traddes): the rest.

    It's basically a 50-50 record so far on being plus of minus with maybe a 25-33% chance of getting someone very helpful.

     

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    so what do you think Jacoby signs for? years and money?.....no matter which team it is ..what do you realistically think he can get max?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to Iceman4's comment:

     

    so what do you think Jacoby signs for? years and money?.....no matter which team it is ..what do you realistically think he can get max?

     




    Max? I think 18M for 6yrs. What I think is more realistic? 16M for 5 yrs with a possible vesting option year added.

    Nothing surprises me in FA anymore though. I saw BJ Upton get 5/15M and couldnt believe it. Hes nowhere near worth that. Ells is the best OF'er on the market this year and there should be a lot of teams talking to him, which makes me think it could easily be on the higher end. Hes a great defender, has some "pop" in his bat, hits for average and good OBP. Is a huge threat and disruptive on the base paths. Only thing is, he has a noodle arm. So I see one thing wrong with him, but its not enough to be any sort of deterrent, or will cost him financially.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to Iceman4's comment:

    so what do you think Jacoby signs for? years and money?.....no matter which team it is ..what do you realistically think he can get max?



    I think he may get $100M/6 or $90M/5. 

    I would not complain too much if we got him for $75M/5, but I think my tippy  top offer would be $56M/4 or $65M/5.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to Iceman4's comment:

     

    so what do you think Jacoby signs for? years and money?.....no matter which team it is ..what do you realistically think he can get max?

     




    Max? I think 18M for 6yrs. What I think is more realistic? 16M for 5 yrs with a possible vesting option year added.

     



    That was my first thought too, paw. Depend on what he does the second half. If some power returns, and his ability to stay injury free and on the field

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to J-BAY's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to Iceman4's comment:

     

    so what do you think Jacoby signs for? years and money?.....no matter which team it is ..what do you realistically think he can get max?

     




    Max? I think 18M for 6yrs. What I think is more realistic? 16M for 5 yrs with a possible vesting option year added.

     

     

     



    That was my first thought too, paw. Depend on what he does the second half. If some power returns, and his ability to stay injury free and on the field

     

     

     




    I think even if he doesnt get to 10-15 HR (IMO, he wont), I believe that GM's value his speed high BA and OBP to give him a big contract. I also think that some GM's believe he will regain some power when that shoulder is 100% better. Although hes hitting better right now, Im willing to bet that his shoulder isnt 100% fully healed and some GM's belive he could be a legit 15-20HR guy...

     

    I agree that the 2nd half will say a lot to what he gets in FA. Personally, I think hes going to keep improving.....IF he can stay healthy.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW


    Anyone who's been reading what I've been saying knows that I'm a big Ellsbury fan.  I've been bandying about the numbers of 5/$15 and I'd do that in a heartbeat.  Unfortunately I don't think that will get the job done. 

    My "final answer" is to lobby hard for that 5/$15 but settle for 5/$16.5 (=$82.5M) with a mutual option at $16.5 for year#6 if it's necessary. If it becomes anything more than that we say, "Buh-bye, and don't let the door hit you on the way out".

    It'll be interesting to see how the owners respond to negotiating with Ells (Boras) and see if they've learned anything from the Crawford/Arod type contracts.  If they have, 5/$15 may do it, but if they haven't I see the possibilty of a bidding war I don't want the Sox to be in.     

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    It absolutely amazes me how much this discussion centers around Ellsbury's weak arm as this huge liability that allows people to ignore his offense.  I am not saying Ellsbury needs to be re-signed, but would offer these points to explain why John Henry has said publicly he is thinking about just that, re-signing Ellsbury--

    1.  Speed to burn.  Maybe the fastest player the Sox have ever had.  It pays off on the basepaths and in the outfield.  A fast centerfielder who can also hit and steal bases is almost the perfect leadoff hitter. 

    2.  Hitting ability.  He hit .300 in 2009 and well over it in 2011 and is over .300 now.  He has a good stroke that does hit the ball hard to all fields, and he walks to K's ratio right now is 1 to 1.5, better than anyone else on the Sox except Ortiz and Pedroia.   This is mildly amazing given the sometimes penalty (second base stolen) for walking him.    He might have home run power.  He did in 2011 and then got injured.  He is second on the team in hits and third in total bases.  His OPS is at .790 and likely to rise in the remaining 65 games. 

    3.  Known quantity.  To the fans and the FO.  The fans like him, and the FO would love to get back to selling out games.  Ellsbury can't do that by himself, but he can help do that more than Victorino or Bradley could.  Stolen bases should not be over-rated, but they are great fun for the fans. 

    I repeat I am not saying Ellsbury needs to be re-signed, but I now think the OP almost has a point.  Compared to the unreal contract for Carl Crawford, Ellsbury is likely to be a bargain. 

       

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    My shallow analysis. Do not go over 3 years 13 mill per year. Ellsbury is good, not great. He can be replaced in the field, and they should be able to find more hitting at positions other than CF. I know I am lowballing for today's market, but why repeat the mistakes of the past? There are far too many examples today of too long, too expensive contracts. Reserve any big deals for proven MLB commodities early in their career. Even Manny's contract was too much for too long and too late in his career, championships be damned.





    "Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
    - Thomas Jefferson

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    My shallow analysis. Do not go over 3 years 13 mill per year. Ellsbury is good, not great. He can be replaced in the field, and they should be able to find more hitting at positions other than CF. I know I am lowballing for today's market, but why repeat the mistakes of the past? There are far too many examples today of too long, too expensive contracts. Reserve any big deals for proven MLB commodities early in their career. Even Manny's contract was too much for too long and too late in his career, championships be damned.





    "Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
    - Thomas Jefferson




    Mannys contract was worth every penny. The last 2 years were team options.

    Ellsbury is a proven MLB player playing in one of the toughest markets to play in. A .300BA 360+OBP 50SB who terrorizes pitchers when hes on base, with great defense and athleticism will not come cheap and will not be duplicated with anyone from our farm.

    Hes worth 5/80 with a vesting option for a 6th year based on games player in years 4-5. Thats probably about what hes worth and probably around what he will get. Id pay it to have a defense of Ells, JBJ and Vic.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    My shallow analysis. Do not go over 3 years 13 mill per year. Ellsbury is good, not great. He can be replaced in the field, and they should be able to find more hitting at positions other than CF. I know I am lowballing for today's market, but why repeat the mistakes of the past? There are far too many examples today of too long, too expensive contracts. Reserve any big deals for proven MLB commodities early in their career. Even Manny's contract was too much for too long and too late in his career, championships be damned.





    "Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
    - Thomas Jefferson




    This Front Office has done a very good job of knowing when to let their own free agents walk when other teams were willing to overpay.  They were right on Damon, Pedro, Bay, Victor, among others, but obviously the compensation has changed, so it's not as easy a decision anymore.  They clearly have concerns about Ellsbury's ability to stay on the field & they aren't going to drastically overpay for what they perceive as his true "value," something they'll break down in great detail.  At this point, I think there will be enough teams willing to "overpay" and this will be his last season in Boston, although a lot can change between now and November...Time will tell...

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to devildavid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    My shallow analysis. Do not go over 3 years 13 mill per year. Ellsbury is good, not great. He can be replaced in the field, and they should be able to find more hitting at positions other than CF. I know I am lowballing for today's market, but why repeat the mistakes of the past? There are far too many examples today of too long, too expensive contracts. Reserve any big deals for proven MLB commodities early in their career. Even Manny's contract was too much for too long and too late in his career, championships be damned.





    "Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
    - Thomas Jefferson

     




    Mannys contract was worth every penny. The last 2 years were team options.

     

    Ellsbury is a proven MLB player playing in one of the toughest markets to play in. A .300BA 360+OBP 50SB who terrorizes pitchers when hes on base, with great defense and athleticism will not come cheap and will not be duplicated with anyone from our farm.

    Hes worth 5/80 with a vesting option for a 6th year based on games player in years 4-5. Thats probably about what hes worth and probably around what he will get. Id pay it to have a defense of Ells, JBJ and Vic.

    [/QUOTE]

    Interesting.  I had no idea you were on this side of the argument.  Me, I'm cheap, but I absolutely am not as cheap as devildavid.  In fact, I can see a basis for 5 X $15M because it's a bargain compared to what the Sox already paid for Carl Crawford.  It's only slightly more than what the Sox paid for J.D. Drew who never delivered (despite his real talent).  I just think the Sox won't be able to meet Boras's price, which is unfortunate because I truly believe that players with any sense should look at the whole picture, which means beyond a certain point more money won't make them any happier. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    I hate to say I would want him back because I think he wants NYC or LA.

    I would tell him we will make you a qualifying offer you choose to decline possibly.

    I would offer him 6 years @$15 M--it's close enough to Ortiz's $14 M. I would offer the same extension to Pedroia--6 @ $15 even though I think Pedroia is worth more than that.

    I would give him a take it or leave it--the offer expires July 30. He's telling me, if he refuses 6 and $15, he's not coming back to Boston--no way, no how. He is telling the league I'm starting at $15.

    Do you want to wait for the draft compensation, or hope he leads you to the plaoffs or trade him to the Dodgers, Angels, Giants or Seattle and get what you can get?

     

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