Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    I hate to say I would want him back because I think he wants NYC or LA.

    I would tell him we will make you a qualifying offer you choose to decline possibly.

    I would offer him 6 years @$15 M--it's close enough to Ortiz's $14 M. I would offer the same extension to Pedroia--6 @ $15 even though I think Pedroia is worth more than that.

    I would give him a take it or leave it--the offer expires July 30. He's telling me, if he refuses 6 and $15, he's not coming back to Boston--no way, no how. He is telling the league I'm starting at $15.

    Do you want to wait for the draft compensation, or hope he leads you to the plaoffs or trade him to the Dodgers, Angels, Giants or Seattle and get what you can get?



    There is literally zero chance he gets traded as long as the Sox are in the race.  Not only would it be a bad "baseball" decision, it would be a public relations disaster.  The Sox haven't won a playoff  game in 5 years.  They aren't going to be "sellers."

    Both the Dodgers and Angels seem to have set outfields for years to come, so not sure how he is a fit at all.  I can think of 10 other teams who have money and a "need."

    The Sox aren't going to be giving any players or agents "ultimatums."  It's not how it works.  He's definitely going to test the market, as he should, and the Sox are in no rush to re-sign him, as they shouldn't be.  Just let the season play out...

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    My shallow analysis. Do not go over 3 years 13 mill per year. Ellsbury is good, not great. He can be replaced in the field, and they should be able to find more hitting at positions other than CF. I know I am lowballing for today's market, but why repeat the mistakes of the past? There are far too many examples today of too long, too expensive contracts. Reserve any big deals for proven MLB commodities early in their career. Even Manny's contract was too much for too long and too late in his career, championships be damned.





    "Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
    - Thomas Jefferson

     

     




    Mannys contract was worth every penny. The last 2 years were team options.

     

     

    Ellsbury is a proven MLB player playing in one of the toughest markets to play in. A .300BA 360+OBP 50SB who terrorizes pitchers when hes on base, with great defense and athleticism will not come cheap and will not be duplicated with anyone from our farm.

    Hes worth 5/80 with a vesting option for a 6th year based on games player in years 4-5. Thats probably about what hes worth and probably around what he will get. Id pay it to have a defense of Ells, JBJ and Vic.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Interesting.  I had no idea you were on this side of the argument.  Me, I'm cheap, but I absolutely am not as cheap as devildavid.  In fact, I can see a basis for 5 X $15M because it's a bargain compared to what the Sox already paid for Carl Crawford.  It's only slightly more than what the Sox paid for J.D. Drew who never delivered (despite his real talent).  I just think the Sox won't be able to meet Boras's price, which is unfortunate because I truly believe that players with any sense should look at the whole picture, which means beyond a certain point more money won't make them any happier. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I really dont think any player is "worth" that much. But, If Im trying to be realistic in terms of what teams are willing to pay and what certain players are getting paid these days, IMO, I think Im pretty close to what he should get. I think if he was offered what I proposed, his first 4 years would be justified with solid production and the last 1 or 2 might slip some, but not enough to make the deal "bad".

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    After looking at what Jason Werth (7/$126m) and Carl Crawford (7/$140m) got at the height of a recession, and with their healthy numbers (WAR) that aren't as good as Ellsbury's healthy numbers, I gotta think that Jake's not gonna take anything less than $120-$140m over 6 or 7.

    Add to that the Yankees are losing Granderson...


    -Daf.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    That was my first thought too, paw. Depend on what he does the second half. If some power returns, and his ability to stay injury free and on the field

    I seriously doubt any GM puts too much stock in a 55 games sample size. He will get paid based on his career and recent 2-4 sample sizes and what they project him to do over the term of the deal they offer.

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    It absolutely amazes me how much this discussion centers around Ellsbury's weak arm as this huge liability that allows people to ignore his offense. 

    Nobody is ignoring his offense or centering the debate on his weak arm. Yes, his arm was discussed, but never as a big part of his value.

    I am not saying Ellsbury needs to be re-signed, but would offer these points to explain why John Henry has said publicly he is thinking about just that, re-signing Ellsbury--

    1.  Speed to burn.  Maybe the fastest player the Sox have ever had.  It pays off on the basepaths and in the outfield.  A fast centerfielder who can also hit and steal bases is almost the perfect leadoff hitter. 

    He is a tremendous leadoff hitter. I love SBs and his improved SB% even better. There are several leadoff men with higher OBPs- some much higher, but certainly Jacoby is one of the best.

    2.  Hitting ability.  He hit .300 in 2009 and well over it in 2011 and is over .300 now.  He has a good stroke that does hit the ball hard to all fields, and he walks to K's ratio right now is 1 to 1.5, better than anyone else on the Sox except Ortiz and Pedroia.   This is mildly amazing given the sometimes penalty (second base stolen) for walking him.    He might have home run power.  He did in 2011 and then got injured.  He is second on the team in hits and third in total bases.  His OPS is at .790 and likely to rise in the remaining 65 games. 

    What makes you think that?

    3.  Known quantity.  To the fans and the FO.  The fans like him, and the FO would love to get back to selling out games.  Ellsbury can't do that by himself, but he can help do that more than Victorino or Bradley could.  Stolen bases should not be over-rated, but they are great fun for the fans. 

    Agreed.

    I repeat I am not saying Ellsbury needs to be re-signed, but I now think the OP almost has a point.  Compared to the unreal contract for Carl Crawford, Ellsbury is likely to be a bargain. 

    Crawford had these numbers at age 29 with hardly any m issed time due to injury:

    Age 29:

    Crawford (5934 PAs)  .293/.333/.441/.774  427 SBs  35.5 WAR

    Ellsbury (2987 PAs)  .298/.352/.439/.791  225 SBs   21.2 WAR

    Crawford  2951 PAs  .292/.326/.434/.770  227 SBs  16.6 WAR up to age 24     

     

       




     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    That was my first thought too, paw. Depend on what he does the second half. If some power returns, and his ability to stay injury free and on the field

    I seriously doubt any GM puts too much stock in a 55 games sample size. He will get paid based on his career and recent 2-4 sample sizes and what they project him to do over the term of the deal they offer.

    Sox4ever

     



    2-4 Sample size? Which part? The MPV season or the part where his shoulder got crushed?

     

    Overall statistics are valuable, but so are trends AND scouting reports. If Ellsbury hits 10-15 HR the rest of the way, it will motivate many a GM to think he is back to being all or in part the player from 2011, and they will open their wallets. Boras is already spinning this story.

    -Daf.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    I think it's getting to late already. The stock has doubled since the original post

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    The max i would go with Ells is 5/100M with an option for a 6th. I think he would live up to that contract or most of it. Also consider, he thought the Lackey deal was an overpay now considering the cost of good starting pitching he is a bargain! BJ Upton just got 5/75.. think about that for a second. The price of talent is going up. Ditto for premium talent. and Ells IS a premium talent. If the sox match the best offer (hopefully it's not outlandish like 130-140) then he will be playing for the Sox in 2014 and beyond.

    I heard from God today.... and she sounded just like me.

    what have i done? and who have i become?

    I saw the Devil today..... and he looked a lot like me

    I looked away.... I TURNED AWAYYY!

    I'm on the wrong side of heaven and the righteous side of hell.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    That was my first thought too, paw. Depend on what he does the second half. If some power returns, and his ability to stay injury free and on the field

    I seriously doubt any GM puts too much stock in a 55 games sample size. He will get paid based on his career and recent 2-4 sample sizes and what they project him to do over the term of the deal they offer.

    Sox4ever

     



    2-4 Sample size? Which part? The MPV season or the part where his shoulder got crushed?

     

    Overall statistics are valuable, but so are trends AND scouting reports. If Ellsbury hits 10-15 HR the rest of the way, it will motivate many a GM to think he is back to being all or in part the player from 2011, and they will open their wallets. Boras is already spinning this story.

    -Daf.



    If Jacoby hits 10 Hrs in the last 55 games, will any GM really know much more than they know now? Will they really be any more sure of anything? I happen to think the influence would be minimal, unless he goes nutty in the playoffs as well.

    Yes, his last 2-4 year combined is something GMs will look at. Maybe some value the last 5 year numbers more than career numbers, or they use both. My point is that I doubt GMs value your most recent 55 games more than the larger recent sample size values.

    Boras will spin the story, and some GM will fall for it. Jacoby will be offered more than what Ben values Jacoby at minus the draft pick we'd get if he walks. That is the part that some here miss. The draft pick value is worth a lot to Ben, so by signing Jacoby, we lose that value.

    To me, Jacoby will be playing elsewhere next year. We will spend his money elsewhere, and I hope we do a little better than we did with this year's FA crop:

    Victorino - out too much to judge properly, but not much of a plus so far at $13M

    Dempster - has done fine, had poor run support, but $13M is a lot for a 5 starter

    Napoli - started very well: will probably get paid over $11M this year

    Drew - fielded better than I expected, but has missed a lot of time

    Gomes - coming on strong

    D Ross - Injured

    Uehara - fantastic signing

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to mef429's comment:

    The max i would go with Ells is 5/100M with an option for a 6th. I think he would live up to that contract or most of it. Also consider, he thought the Lackey deal was an overpay now considering the cost of good starting pitching he is a bargain! BJ Upton just got 5/75.. think about that for a second. The price of talent is going up. Ditto for premium talent. and Ells IS a premium talent. If the sox match the best offer (hopefully it's not outlandish like 130-140) then he will be playing for the Sox in 2014 and beyond.

    I heard from God today.... and she sounded just like me.

    what have i done? and who have i become?

    I saw the Devil today..... and he looked a lot like me

    I looked away.... I TURNED AWAYYY!

    I'm on the wrong side of heaven and the righteous side of hell.

     



    Some comparative numbers:

    (Note: just because a GM pays this amount of money- does not mean they will earn the money or that Jacoby is worth more- IMO.)

    Numbers the two previous seasons combined before signing:

    299 gm Upton $75M/5  .244  51 159  67 SB/161 Runs (.315/.441/.756)7.0 WAR

    313 gm Bourn $48M/4 .284  11 107  103 SB/190 Runs (.348/.388/.736) 9.9 WAR

    Ells '11-'13:  320 gms  .305  39  164  89 SB/221 Runs (.360/.474/.834) 13.9 WAR

     

    Jacoby has a better BA, OBP and SLG than both Upton and Bourn, but Bourn has more SBs and Upton more HRs and RBIs/game.

    I think Ellsbury will get $90M/5 or $100M/6. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    The max i would go with Ells is 5/100M with an option for a 6th. I think he would live up to that contract or most of it. Also consider, he thought the Lackey deal was an overpay now considering the cost of good starting pitching he is a bargain! BJ Upton just got 5/75.. think about that for a second. The price of talent is going up. Ditto for premium talent. and Ells IS a premium talent. If the sox match the best offer (hopefully it's not outlandish like 130-140) then he will be playing for the Sox in 2014 and beyond.

    I heard from God today.... and she sounded just like me.

    what have i done? and who have i become?

    I saw the Devil today..... and he looked a lot like me

    I looked away.... I TURNED AWAYYY!

    I'm on the wrong side of heaven and the righteous side of hell.

     

     



    Some comparative numbers:

     

    (Note: just because a GM pays this amount of money- does not mean they will earn the money or that Jacoby is worth more- IMO.)

    Numbers the two previous seasons combined before signing:

    299 gm Upton $75M/5  .244  51 159  67 SB/161 Runs (.315/.441/.756)7.0 WAR

    313 gm Bourn $48M/4 .284  11 107  103 SB/190 Runs (.348/.388/.736) 9.9 WAR

    Ells '11-'13:  320 gms  .305  39  164  89 SB/221 Runs (.360/.474/.834) 13.9 WAR

     

    Jacoby has a better BA, OBP and SLG than both Upton and Bourn, but Bourn has more SBs and Upton more HRs and RBIs/game.

    I think Ellsbury will get $90M/5 or $100M/6. 

    [/QUOTE]

    and i would gladly shell out 90/5 or 100/6 in a heartbeat. IN. A. HEARTBEAT.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    and i would gladly shell out 90/5 or 100/6 in a heartbeat. IN. A. HEARTBEAT.

    With a Pedroia extension and Lester $13M option, that would eat up a huge portion of our winter spending budget. We can probably also sign Salty, platoon corner IF'er,  and a relief pitcher, but we will need Bogaerts, Iggy, Middlebrooks, and other young players to do well in full time or near full time roles. It could work out, but with no upgrades to the rotation either, we may face some serious trouble at a few other slots.

    I'm not saying Jacoby is not worth $18M a year on the open market (with the you are worth what you are paid logic): he will likely get that, but to me, we can spend $18M over a few positions, go with JBJ, and hope the comp pick works out well sounds better to me.

    Sox4ever

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    That was my first thought too, paw. Depend on what he does the second half. If some power returns, and his ability to stay injury free and on the field

    I seriously doubt any GM puts too much stock in a 55 games sample size. He will get paid based on his career and recent 2-4 sample sizes and what they project him to do over the term of the deal they offer.

    Sox4ever

     



    2-4 Sample size? Which part? The MPV season or the part where his shoulder got crushed?

     

    Overall statistics are valuable, but so are trends AND scouting reports. If Ellsbury hits 10-15 HR the rest of the way, it will motivate many a GM to think he is back to being all or in part the player from 2011, and they will open their wallets. Boras is already spinning this story.

    -Daf.

     

     



    If Jacoby hits 10 Hrs in the last 55 games, will any GM really know much more than they know now? Will they really be any more sure of anything? I happen to think the influence would be minimal, unless he goes nutty in the playoffs as well.

     

    Yes. It's called scouting. Measuring strength, timeing, bat plane, bat speed, how he squares to the ball etc...

    Yes, his last 2-4 year combined is something GMs will look at. Maybe some value the last 5 year numbers more than career numbers, or they use both. My point is that I doubt GMs value your most recent 55 games more than the larger recent sample size values.


    GM's, and owners, understand the difference between averages and trends. I know Henry does, he made billions understanding the difference. And a strong finish to this already strong season is strong evidence that Ellsbury is fully recovered from his 2012 injuries and able to deliver more than just OBP and speed.

    Boras will spin the story, and some GM will fall for it. Jacoby will be offered more than what Ben values Jacoby at minus the draft pick we'd get if he walks. That is the part that some here miss. The draft pick value is worth a lot to Ben, so by signing Jacoby, we lose that value.


    Hmmm, what are the odds that a draft pick will return in a 30-30 guy who finishes second in MVP? Pretty close to Zero. 

    To me, Jacoby will be playing elsewhere next year. We will spend his money elsewhere, and I hope we do a little better than we did with this year's FA crop:

    Victorino - out too much to judge properly, but not much of a plus so far at $13M

    Dempster - has done fine, had poor run support, but $13M is a lot for a 5 starter

    Napoli - started very well: will probably get paid over $11M this year

    Drew - fielded better than I expected, but has missed a lot of time

    Gomes - coming on strong

    D Ross - Injured

    Uehara - fantastic signing

     

     

     


    Drew is gone next year, that's $9.5 million off the books and Iglesias will play for the minimum, so that's $9 to add to Jake's current salary and gives him ~$18 and that will still give us ~$170m salary that's less than the 2007 world series championship team.

    Hanrahan is another $7m. Bailey, another $4.1m gone.

    I suspect Uehara will be back, probably with a raise.

    A stacked farm system loaded with top prospects that won't cost significant money for years.

    I don't see the advantage of 1 extra draft pick vs a proven top 10 outfielder who has even more upside.

    To me, Ellsbury is a keeper, and the longer we wait, the more he's gonna cost. (But that's probably a fait accompli now).


    -Daf.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    If Jacoby hits 10 Hrs in the last 55 games, will any GM really know much more than they know now? Will they really be any more sure of anything? I happen to think the influence would be minimal, unless he goes nutty in the playoffs as well.

     

    Yes. It's called scouting. Measuring strength, timeing, bat plane, bat speed, how he squares to the ball etc...

    Scouting does not project future performance. It helps, but no scout will ever tell you that the most recent 55 games alone should be used to project future performance, especially at Ellsbury's age and experience point of his career. I am sure any scout may see that Ellsbury is in a groove right now, but looking over his career and recent years, would caution his boss that down streaks are possible as well into the future.

    Some GMs may place more value in 1/3 season sample sample sizes than others, but I seriously doubt any use it a major tool for projecting future productivity.

     

    Yes, his last 2-4 year combined is something GMs will look at. Maybe some value the last 5 year numbers more than career numbers, or they use both. My point is that I doubt GMs value your most recent 55 games more than the larger recent sample size values.


    GM's, and owners, understand the difference between averages and trends. I know Henry does, he made billions understanding the difference. And a strong finish to this already strong season is strong evidence that Ellsbury is fully recovered from his 2012 injuries and able to deliver more than just OBP and speed.

    Yes, there is "evidence", but to me, it is still not conclusive. Another 55 games may strengthen this belief, but I was really pointing to the statement on HRs over the final 1/3 of a season. Jacoby's .370 OBP is nice. It is a bit higher than is career number. I'm not sure if any scout would project .370+ for the next 5 years, but I suppose it could be true.

     

    Boras will spin the story, and some GM will fall for it. Jacoby will be offered more than what Ben values Jacoby at minus the draft pick we'd get if he walks. That is the part that some here miss. The draft pick value is worth a lot to Ben, so by signing Jacoby, we lose that value.


    Hmmm, what are the odds that a draft pick will return in a 30-30 guy who finishes second in MVP? Pretty close to Zero. 

    That wasn't the point. My point was that the comp pick has value. That value can be added to the players we get instead of Jacoby, and could, in theory, tip the balance in favor of letting Jacoby walk, giving JBJ a chance, watching $90-100M spent on 2-3 other free agents do their work, and then enjoy the fuits of that draft pick 4-10 years in the future.

     

    To me, Jacoby will be playing elsewhere next year. We will spend his money elsewhere, and I hope we do a little better than we did with this year's FA crop:

    Victorino - out too much to judge properly, but not much of a plus so far at $13M

    Dempster - has done fine, had poor run support, but $13M is a lot for a 5 starter

    Napoli - started very well: will probably get paid over $11M this year

    Drew - fielded better than I expected, but has missed a lot of time

    Gomes - coming on strong

    D Ross - Injured

    Uehara - fantastic signing

     

     

     


    Drew is gone next year, that's $9.5 million off the books and Iglesias will play for the minimum, so that's $9 to add to Jake's curremt salary and gives him ~$18 and that will still give us ~$170m salary that's less than the 2007 world series championship team. 

    It's not that simple. There will be arb raises, a possible Pedey extension, the Lester $13M option, and key positions like catcher, 1B, 3B, and the pen to restock.

     

    Hanrahan is another $7m. Bailey, another $4.1m.

    I suspect Uehara will be back, probably with a raise.

    A stacked farm system loaded with top prospects that won't cost significant money for years.

    I don't see the advantage of 1 extra draft pick vs a proven top 10 outfielder who has even more upside.

    To me, Ellsbury is a keeper, and the longer we wait, the more he's gonna cost. (But that's probably a fait accompli now).

    Again, the draft pick could be the balance tipper. The equation is not Ellsbury vs JBJ and a draft pick, it is Jacoby vs JBJ, the draft pick and $100M to spend on several positions of great need.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    Let's just look at one possible scenario comparison:

    CF: Jacoby $20M x 5 years (JBJ Back-up)

    1B: Carp/Middlebrooks

    3B: Bogaerts/Middlebrooks

    C: Ross/Lava/Vazquez

    RP: No added pitchers

    No comp draft pick

     

    vs

     

    CF: JBJ  (Victorino/Brentz back-up)

    1B: K Morales or J Morneau or M Morse $8-12M/yr

    3B: Bogaerts/Middlebrooks

    C:  Salty $8M x 4 years

    RP: $2-4M RP

    Comp pick in 2014

     

    Is the drop off from Jacoby to JBJ/Brentz likely to be larger than the gain from...

    Salty> Lava

    Morales > Middlebrooks

    RP > no RP

    Comp pic> No comp pick

    MIddlebrooks as back up or platoon 3Bman > Middlebrooks possibly needed at 1B FT

    ????

    Not a slam dunk choice when you view it this way.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    Sox should sign their own, that simple. Management is making a big mistake if they let him leave.

     

    Yanks haven't spent squat in a couple of years, bet they make a move on him.

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    They didn't need Johnny Damon either. Ellsbury will hit 20 HRS easy in Yankee Stadium. Steal 60 bases, close to 200 hits. We'll see.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from michaelsjr. Show michaelsjr's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    Big Ellsbury fan here and of course would like to see him stay with Red Sox.  He's going to get a big contract no matter who signs him, so I don't see it coming down to an issue of just the money.  His personal ties are out west and that may be why he wants to test free market...to see if he gets serious offer closer to his family and tribe.  Have never seen anything written regarding how he feels about staying in Boston - Seems to be a pretty private person and a family man and his bride is also from west.  We'll see.  Just going to enjoy him being our lead off guy and speedster for as long as it lasts.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to michaelsjr's comment:

    Big Ellsbury fan here and of course would like to see him stay with Red Sox.  He's going to get a big contract no matter who signs him, so I don't see it coming down to an issue of just the money.  His personal ties are out west and that may be why he wants to test free market...to see if he gets serious offer closer to his family and tribe.  Have never seen anything written regarding how he feels about staying in Boston - Seems to be a pretty private person and a family man and his bride is also from west.  We'll see.  Just going to enjoy him being our lead off guy and speedster for as long as it lasts.

     



    jr, check your messages

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    Personally, I believe that Hanry will spend big on homegrown proven talent. We know these guys better an any FA out there. The Sox know if guys like Pedey and Ellsbury can produce here and who they are on a personal level.

    IMO, Henry will offer Ellsbury a big contract like Pedey, figuring that the committed money in 2015 is next to nothing and less than 1M committed on 2016. NOW is the time to lock up your homegrown players if you want to keep a true group of "core" guys.

    They have proven to stick to the plan of the next great Red Sox team mostly built from within. Jacoby Ellsbury should be in those plans. I dont see 20M, but 17-18M over 6 yrs like Pedey is certainly realistic.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Personally, I believe that Hanry will spend big on homegrown proven talent. We know these guys better an any FA out there. The Sox know if guys like Pedey and Ellsbury can produce here and who they are on a personal level.

    IMO, Henry will offer Ellsbury a big contract like Pedey, figuring that the committed money in 2015 is next to nothing and less than 1M committed on 2016. NOW is the time to lock up your homegrown players if you want to keep a true group of "core" guys.

    They have proven to stick to the plan of the next great Red Sox team mostly built from within. Jacoby Ellsbury should be in those plans. I dont see 20M, but 17-18M over 6 yrs like Pedey is certainly realistic.



    With all due respect, Ellsbury has also "proven" he can have off years. He has never "proven" he can put together 3-5 straight years of excellent production. While I agree he will get close to $18M x 5 or 6 years, it will be a big gamble for a player who has not shown consistent power and who has been hurt a lot.

    (Note: I am not saying he is in jury prone, but I'm pretty sure his injury history is a concern to any GM thinking of making him a serious offer.)

    Yes, some of his off seasons and down streaks could be attributed to injury and rehab issues, but none the less, it is still a concern.  It's pretty certain you will get a .360+ OBP and a bunch of SBs, but I wouldn't say he has proven he can and will do that over the next 5-6 years. His power numbers are evn more sketchy.

    I'd really love to have Jacoby back next year and beyond, but if we extend Pedey, take Lester's $13M option (or sign a FA SP), and outbid everyone for Jacoby, we won't have too much left for replacing Salty, Napoli, Drew (3B), and building up the rotation and pen.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    Sox should sign their own, that simple. Management is making a big mistake if they let him leave.

    Would it be a big mistake to outbid some GM offering Jacoby $150M/7?

    We can't say anything about it "being a big mistake", until we know what is being offered.

    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Personally, I believe that Hanry will spend big on homegrown proven talent. We know these guys better an any FA out there. The Sox know if guys like Pedey and Ellsbury can produce here and who they are on a personal level.

    IMO, Henry will offer Ellsbury a big contract like Pedey, figuring that the committed money in 2015 is next to nothing and less than 1M committed on 2016. NOW is the time to lock up your homegrown players if you want to keep a true group of "core" guys.

    They have proven to stick to the plan of the next great Red Sox team mostly built from within. Jacoby Ellsbury should be in those plans. I dont see 20M, but 17-18M over 6 yrs like Pedey is certainly realistic.

     



    With all due respect, Ellsbury has also "proven" he can have off years. He has never "proven" he can put together 3-5 straight years of excellent production. While I agree he will get close to $18M x 5 or 6 years, it will be a big gamble for a player who has not shown consistent power and who has been hurt a lot.

     

    (Note: I am not saying he is in jury prone, but I'm pretty sure his injury history is a concern to any GM thinking of making him a serious offer.)

    Yes, some of his off seasons and down streaks could be attributed to injury and rehab issues, but none the less, it is still a concern.  It's pretty certain you will get a .360+ OBP and a bunch of SBs, but I wouldn't say he has proven he can and will do that over the next 5-6 years. His power numbers are evn more sketchy.

    I'd really love to have Jacoby back next year and beyond, but if we extend Pedey, take Lester's $13M option (or sign a FA SP), and outbid everyone for Jacoby, we won't have too much left for replacing Salty, Napoli, Drew (3B), and building up the rotation and pen.

    [/QUOTE]


    I think we have the players in the system to replace Salty, Napoli, Drew and the pitching vacancies. And at a low cost.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Lock up Ellsbury---NOW

    I think we have the players in the system to replace Salty, Napoli, Drew and the pitching vacancies. And at a low cost.

    While I agree that Bogaerts/Middlebrooks at 3B and Iggy at SS looks pretty nice compared to S Drew at SS and Iggy at 3B, I'm not sold on D Ross/Lava/Vazquez at catcher for 2014 or Carp/Middlebrooks at 1B. We also will need a significant pen build up and, to me, a big starting pitcher.

    I'm really not sure why so many psoters seem to be more comfortable with Lava, Vazquez, Middlebrooks, Alex Wilson, de la Torre than Jackie Bradley Jr., Brentz or other OF in-house options. They are "low cost" too.

    Sox4ever

     
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