Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox
posted at 12/4/2011 12:21 PM EST
First, thank you softy for the information provided here. I double checked the few minor differences we had in in numbers of already signed players, and you got it right. I have said, I am not an expert on these matters and appreciate all the input I can get here.
Important points on on 2012 CBA CBT:A. 2012 CBT capture date is not until December 12, 2012B. Average annual contract value for Players traded before December 12, 2012 are pro-ratedC. Signing Bonuses for all MLB guranteed multi-year contracts are pro-rated over total years of contractD. Vesting Option Buyout payments for all MLB guaranteed contracts are computed as signing bonuses and are pro-rated over total years contractE. Team Player Benefit Costs are 1/30 of total MLB player benefit costs and do not amount to more than 1 to 2 basis points for CBT calculationF. Tax amount on excess of 178M has been lowered to 17% from 22.5%2012 Estimated before winter and spring and summer trades and FA contractsAgon 22MCrawford 20.28Beckett 17Lackey 16.5Youk 10.28DiceK 8.66 (Posting fee is not captured for CBT)Buch 7.48Pedroia 6.75Lester 6Jenks 6Scutaro 5.33Iglesias 2.06Tazawa 1.1 Atchison .614Reddick .505Doubrant .437Bowden .434Kalish .417Anderson .417Exposito .415Lavarnway .415Pimental .415Tejada .415Weiland .415Briton .325 Middlebrooks .325 Lin .325 = CBT Subtotal 134.899 (27)
I was not aware that the players listed here after Iggy had contracts already for 2012. Usually some of these "pre-arb players" get minimal raises as Bard did last year. I think this number might be a million or two higher based on minor raises for the bottom 15 players. Maybe the number might be more like $136M.
Ellsbury EA - 8
Aceves EA - 1.75
Bard EA - 1.75
Salty EA - 1.75
Lowrie EA - 1.25
Morales EA - 1
I'd say $15.5M here is just about right. I might have guessed Lowrie at $1M and Bard & Aceves at $2M, but it is close.
CBT subtotal = 150.399 (33) + 2 (Player Benefits) = 152.399
I'll take your word on the player benefits part and am happy it is lower than I expected. I'm curious where you found the information.
Potential Non-tender Profiles
I think he will be offered arb (his 2nd arb year) and like Lowrie, get about $1-1.3M by signing before arb.
I think they will offer arb as well, but am not quite sure of his status. I know they came to some kind of agreement this summer, but Cots has him arb eligible (2nd of 3 years) and Baseball Ref has him not listed. I really have no idea what he may make if he stays here. ($1.5-2M?)
This is the tough call. We need a RH'd bat in the OF badly, and before last year, he had very good splits vs LHPs. However, his fielding in RF is horrible and CF barely adequate. Since he is "pre-arb", I think he will be given a contract and perhaps traded or released if he down't make the cut in ST.
Again, some confusion here. Cots does notlist what he made in 2011, has a blank for 2012, and lists arb3 under 2013. Baseball Ref does not have him listed at all. I am not sure he will be back, even if we have the option to "control" him for 2012 and beyond. Either way, his salary will not be much more than the lowest level player that replaces him on the 40 man roster.
Albers RP/Depth 5 back benchers
I think Albers will be offered arb (3rd of 4 years) and will be signed before arb for about $1M.
Budget for non-tender roster spots/back benchers will be max of 5 - 6M = 158.399
Agreed, but maybe more like $159M to $160M if we keep Miller.
Then there are the Papi and Wheeler arbs or pre-arb deals to be made.Red Sox have about 20M in status quo CBT space to fill following needs:
Quality top tier Pen Arm
Young RH slugging OFer
(Sidenote: Just curious, why you no longer consider catcher a "need", when you had wanted to pay Ramon Hernandez $3-4M to play here in 2012.)
Ortiz will soon find that he has no market beyond 2 years and around 20M. Ortiz will likely return to Red Sox on a 2 year contract or 1 year play for big year and FA arbitration plus and plus buyout (Ortiz pipe dreaming 4 to try and get 3 but will settle for 2)
Ortiz CBT 2012 calculation amount will be about 10M to 14M. That leaves 6 to 10M for remaining 3 needs. Aceves needs to move to rotation, Bard to close, as that obviates the need to become InEsptein desperate and do something stupid like Lackey FA. Aceves slot needs to be replaced by best pen arm value in the 3-4 M range.
By losing Paps and moving Aceves to the rotation, I'd say we will need 2-3 quality pen arms and a quality 4/5th starter. Out of those 3-4 slots, we will almost certainly have to "dumpster dive" for 1-2 of them, and maybe 3 if Papi gets $13-14M/1 as you suggest he may.
Of course the other option is to let our offense suffer some by letting Papi walk, and hope that Lava and Youk at DH (actually and Aviles/Lowrie platoon at 3B when Youk DHs) can try and minimize the loss at DH, enough to offset the loss we will have on the pitching staff if Papi stays. Papi walking should also improve our fielding, roster flexibility, long term farm building (2 picks) and options when playing in NL parks.
I want Papi back, but the no Papi choice under these financial circumstances looks like a viable option.Rotation Depth Chart:Beckett (if Sox summer sputter then this prima donna first CBT dump of 2012)LesterBuchAcevesDoubrant (Not good enough to trust in a big time competetor's rotation)Dumpster Profile #1 via trade or FA DiceK last half maybeDumpster Prifle #2 via trade or FA (parked in AAA)Tazawa (I see him as a better rotation option than Douby)WeilandWilson
...Bobby V. has a tough job. Cherry needs to step up, stop looking to FA like crack, and learn the art of selling high and trading.
"Stop looking..."? Doesn't that imply that he has spent on FAs or talked of spending big already?
He hasn't signed any FAs yet.