Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox
posted at 12/6/2011 7:49 PM EST
If we know anything about this management team, it's that they will not allow the budget to get in the way of winning if exigencies warrant it. They rolled the dice last year and it didn't work out. their actions indicate that they intend to contend this year as well. They are not going to let this window of opportunity get away without making every attempt to get better this winter.
I believe Luchinno indicated that they wouldn't do any big moves this winter. His predictions last year were dead on. We have every reason to believe him this year as well. But that doesn't mean they go into rebuild mode either.
If Ortiz accepts arb or is talked into a multiple year deal with the Sox they they almost definitely go over the luxury tax limit. they might go over it even if he doesn't sign. They have a lot of holes to fill.
I realize we may go over the limit. We almost have to, even without Papi. The posters that think Henry should just spend, spend, spend are the same ones who roast the Yanks for outbidding everyone on anyone they want. We are already projected to be (by far) the second highest payroll in MLB. We spent a huge amount of cash the past 2 years on FAs and extensions. To expect us to do the same this winter is perhaps wishful thinking. Some poster's plans have our payroll over $195M! While I do think Henry will OK going over by a significant amount this year, it would only be for a clearly worthy player(s). I don't see many of those on the market this winter.
I think our best hope is to pray for health to Buch, Youk and others and to make some nifty small to mid-level pick-ups to fill the high need areas. I can certainly understand those who feel Lava has proved nothing, but I am increasingly feeling we need the Papi money to fix more crucial needs. If Lava bombs, or the Youk to DH and Aviles/Lowrie platoon at 3B bombs, then picking up a DH mid season is probably the easiest slot to fill without giving up the farm. Picking up a pitcher in July is always very costly.
I believe Luchinno as well. I think they are just posturing now to satisfy the media and fan base. I doubt we sign a big ticket FA this year. My guess is, we end up at about $182-185M. Not counting Papi, that leaves us about $22-26M to spend on...
Closer (Bard? Jenks?)
Set-up (Bard? Jenks? Aceves?)
Starter 4 (Aceves? Bard?)
Starter 5/6/7 (Aceves, bard, Taz, Doub, Weil, Wilson...)
DH (Lava? Youk with Aviles/Lowrie platoon at 3B?)
RF (Redd, Kalish, ???)
RP (See 6/7 starters or Bowden, Morales, Albers, Atchison...)
C (Lava, if not FT DH or Exposito?)