Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    In Response to Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox:
    [QUOTE]Aren't we still paying Manny somthing like $2 mil. per year?
    Posted by UticaClub[/QUOTE]

    DON"T TELL BILL'S DAD!

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Corrections to Hanks numbers

    2012 Season:

    Lester 7.625 million
    Pedey -8 million.

    I can see it right now, Pedey must be cursing every time one of the high priced boys doesn't run out a grounder, k's or hits in a crucial DP.

    If the Sox and RSN expect Pedey to retire in a Sox uniform, get ready for a big Thank you contract in 2015, especially if you win another championship by then.

    If the Sox were actually paying those two guys what they are worth, Sox would be closing in on 200 mill.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Corrections to Hanks numbers

    2012 Season:

    Lester 7.625 million
    Pedey -8 million.

    Hank's numbers are correct. The luxury tax is based on average contract salary which includes any bonus. It is not based on what they make in 2012.

    I can see it right now, Pedey must be cursing every time one of the high priced boys doesn't run out a grounder, k's or hits in a crucial DP.

    I don't think Pedey is the jealous type. Besides, he is smart enough to know that players who sign extensions before arb is done, often make less than "market value".

    If the Sox and RSN expect Pedey to retire in a Sox uniform, get ready for a big Thank you contract in 2015, especially if you win another championship by then.

    Yes, he should get a "loyalty" bump.

    If the Sox were actually paying those two guys what they are worth, Sox would be closing in on 200 mill.

    They may close in on $200M anyways.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Threads like this tend to get lost in the tall weeds, IMHO.  Fun to speculate, but intricate to execute.

    Which, of course, does not stop us from speculating.  Cool

    Peter Abraham had a good post this morning on this same topic:  http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/12/how_much_money.html

    Abraham's net-net: the Sox have $20 mil in wiggle room under the luxury tax, not $30 mil, but that figure does NOT include anything that may go to Papi.

    So moon, your viable option of letting Papi walk may come true - Especially since BOS has an interest in Josh Willingham. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/05/red-sox-reds-among-nine-interested-in-josh-willingham/

    In which case, since Willingham is four years younger than Papi and is asking for a 3-year deal at $8 mil per year, I would say hooray. Well not exactly hooray, because I would hate to see Papi go, but let's give him a gold watch and send him off into the sunset with our best wishes.

    Darn that luxury tax and JH's reluctance, but I understand it. If that helps.

    And speaking of money, where is Miami getting THE BIG BUCKS  to sign Jose Reyes for $106 mil and Health Bell for whatever?  Geez Louise.

    But I digress.  
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Abraham's net-net: the Sox have $20 mil in wiggle room under the luxury tax, not $30 mil, but that figure does NOT include anything that may go to Papi.

    Abraham is confusing 2012 salary with average contract salary, but if we don't care about the tax, his numbers are accurate.

    So moon, your viable option of letting Papi walk may come true - Especially since BOS has an interest in Josh Willingham.http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/05/red-sox-reds-among-nine-interested-in-josh-willingham/ 

    If we are letting Papi walk to get Willingham, I strongly disagree. The only benefit I see in letting Papi walk is to increase our ability to upgrade pitching.

    In which case, since Willingham is four years younger than Papi and is asking for a 3-year deal at $8 mil per year, I would say hooray. Well not exactly hooray, because I would hate to see Papi go, but let's give him a gold watch and send him off into the sunset with our best wishes.

    Darn that luxury tax and JH's reluctance, but I understand it. If that helps.

    Not many "understood" it when CC was signed last winter.

    And speaking of money, where is Miami getting THE BIG BUCKS  to sign Jose Reyes for $106 mil and Health Bell for whatever?  Geez Louise

    They are wrongly projecting huge attendance increases.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    It would be fair to accuse me of magical thinking, moon. I kind of like Willingham, always have.  Then again, I am betting on a rebound by Crawford.

    But I wonder if we can have Papi and an upgraded staff too. 

    Looks like they are seriously talking about Bard as a starter. Not sure I like that idea...and if Bard breaks down in mid-season, because he is not accustomed to being a starter at the major league level, I will like it less.

    Still, if Bard moves to closer, and Papi comes back with, say, a two-year deal at $10 mil each with an option for year three, then that leaves about $20 mil in 2012 for a RF, a set-up guy, a closer and some middle relievers.  Not sure I like that math, either, but it could be workable..
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Still, if Bard moves to closer, and Papi comes back with, say, a two-year deal at $10 mil each with an option for year three, then that leaves about $20 mil in 2012 for a RF, a set-up guy, a closer and some middle relievers.  Not sure I like that math, either, but it could be workable..

    Assuming we stay near the tax limit, we have $20M before Papi, not after. If we sign Papi to $10M, we'd have just $10M left... which means, no big RF pick-up, unless we totally neglect the staff. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox


    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    re"

    We may have to go above the threshold to really keep this team strong."

     

    someone has put it together.

    you bet your @@@@@@@ we need to not hold on tightly to the pennies for fear of cap hit.

     

     

     

     



     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    In Response to Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox:
    [QUOTE]Threads like this tend to get lost in the tall weeds, IMHO.  Fun to speculate, but intricate to execute. Which, of course, does not stop us from speculating.  Peter Abraham had a good post this morning on this same topic:  http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/12/how_much_money.html Abraham's net-net: the Sox have $20 mil in wiggle room under the luxury tax, not $30 mil, but that figure does NOT include anything that may go to Papi. So moon, your viable option of letting Papi walk may come true - Especially since BOS has an interest in Josh Willingham. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/05/red-sox-reds-among-nine-interested-in-josh-willingham/ In which case, since Willingham is four years younger than Papi and is asking for a 3-year deal at $8 mil per year, I would say hooray. Well not exactly hooray, because I would hate to see Papi go, but let's give him a gold watch and send him off into the sunset with our best wishes. Darn that luxury tax and JH's reluctance, but I understand it. If that helps. And speaking of money, where is Miami getting  THE BIG BUCKS   to sign Jose Reyes for $106 mil and Health Bell for whatever?  Geez Louise. But I digress.  
    Posted by summerof67[/QUOTE]

    youve heard it before. jh has that money rollig around under a couch cushion in his houses. he writes off who knows how many times that in his tax writeoffs, er loophoes.

    if they let that stop them, i dont have much to say for them.
    go back to teh kiddie table guys, this here is for the big boys, not the "i wanna be a big boy" (s).
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    If we know anything about this management team, it's that they will not allow the budget to get in the way of winning if exigencies warrant it. They rolled the dice last year and it didn't work out. their actions indicate that they intend to contend this year as well. They are not going to let this window of opportunity get away without making every attempt to get better this winter.

    I believe Luchinno indicated that they wouldn't do any big moves this winter. His predictions last year were dead on. We have every reason to believe him this year as well. But that doesn't mean they go into rebuild mode either.

    If Ortiz accepts arb or is talked into a multiple year deal with the Sox they they almost definitely go over the luxury tax limit. they might go over it even if he doesn't sign. They have  a lot of holes to fill.  
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    If we know anything about this management team, it's that they will not allow the budget to get in the way of winning if exigencies warrant it. They rolled the dice last year and it didn't work out. their actions indicate that they intend to contend this year as well. They are not going to let this window of opportunity get away without making every attempt to get better this winter.

    I believe Luchinno indicated that they wouldn't do any big moves this winter. His predictions last year were dead on. We have every reason to believe him this year as well. But that doesn't mean they go into rebuild mode either.

    If Ortiz accepts arb or is talked into a multiple year deal with the Sox they they almost definitely go over the luxury tax limit. they might go over it even if he doesn't sign. They have  a lot of holes to fill.  

    I realize we may go over the limit. We almost have to, even without Papi. The posters that think Henry should just spend, spend, spend are the same ones who roast the Yanks for outbidding everyone on anyone they want. We are already projected to be (by far) the second highest payroll in MLB. We spent a huge amount of cash the past 2 years on FAs and extensions. To expect us to do the same this winter is perhaps wishful thinking. Some poster's plans have our payroll over $195M! While I do think Henry will OK going over by a significant amount this year, it would only be for a clearly worthy player(s). I don't see many of those on the market this winter.

    I think our best hope is to pray for health to Buch, Youk and others and to make some nifty small to mid-level pick-ups to fill the high need areas. I can certainly understand those who feel Lava has proved nothing, but I am increasingly feeling we need the Papi money to fix more crucial needs.  If Lava bombs, or the Youk to DH and Aviles/Lowrie platoon at 3B bombs, then picking up a DH mid season is probably the easiest slot to fill without giving up the farm. Picking up a pitcher in July is always very costly.

    I believe Luchinno as well. I think they are just posturing now to satisfy the media and fan base. I doubt we sign a big ticket FA this year. My guess is, we end up at about $182-185M. Not counting Papi, that leaves us about $22-26M to spend on...

    Closer (Bard?  Jenks?)
    Set-up (Bard? Jenks? Aceves?)
    Starter 4 (Aceves? Bard?)
    Starter 5/6/7 (Aceves, bard, Taz, Doub, Weil, Wilson...)
    DH  (Lava? Youk with Aviles/Lowrie platoon at 3B?)
    RF  (Redd, Kalish, ???)
    RP  (See 6/7 starters or Bowden, Morales, Albers, Atchison...)
    C    (Lava, if not FT DH or Exposito?)
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    In Response to Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox:
    [QUOTE]Still, if Bard moves to closer, and Papi comes back with, say, a two-year deal at $10 mil each with an option for year three, then that leaves about $20 mil in 2012 for a RF, a set-up guy, a closer and some middle relievers.  Not sure I like that math, either, but it could be workable.. Assuming we stay near the tax limit, we have $20M before Papi, not after. If we sign Papi to $10M, we'd have just $10M left... which means, no big RF pick-up, unless we totally neglect the staff. 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Yes, the Lady or The Tiger.

    It could be that we go with a low-cost RF in order to focus on the staff. Maybe Reddick/Kalish. 

    I am afraid that I see this proposed move with Bard as a low-cost solution (such as it may be) to the staff problems.  Make Bard a starter, sign Wakefield at low cost. Become a dumpster diver for the rest of the pen.  "And hey, how about Jenks as a closer?"

    Done and done.

    Ugh.

    It keeps us below the luxury tax level but it also keeps us in 3rd place in the AL East.


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Yes, the Lady or The Tiger. 

    It could be that we go with a low-cost RF in order to focus on the staff. Maybe Reddick/Kalish.  

    I have mentioned Cody Ross a few times. He kills LHPs and has pretty decent overall numbers as well.

    Career numbers per 625 PAs:
    .261  25  95  (.323/.456/.779)

    vs LHPs (per 625 PAs)
    .282  38  116  (.349/.563/.912)

    Nice platoon with Reddick/Kalis/Crawford!

    I am afraid that I see this proposed move with Bard as a low-cost solution (such as it may be) to the staff problems.  Make Bard a starter, sign Wakefield at low cost. Become a dumpster diver for the rest of the pen.  "And hey, how about Jenks as a closer?"

    I don't like moving Bard to starter. Aceves is a better choice, but moving both is going to empty one of the nicest 3 picther pens in MLB last year.

    Done and done. 

    Ugh.

    It keeps us below the luxury tax level but it also keeps us in 3rd place in the AL East.

    Let's say we will go as high as $185M. We get Papi for $14M in arb and move Bard and Aceves to the rotation. That leaves about $10-12M. If we can get Cody Ross for $3M a year, that leaves about $7-9M to fill the whole pen. We may finish in 4th.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Maybe long term Bard is a good starter but for 2012 it would likely be just another pitcher who can last 5 innings? I worry about his stamina.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Right burr...losing Paps, Bard and mayeb Aceves from the pen, and then watching Bard go 4-5 IP for the season could be painful.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    I have mentioned Cody Ross a few times. He kills LHPs and has pretty decent overall numbers as well.

    Career numbers per 625 PAs:
    .261 25 95 (.323/.456/.779)

    vs LHPs (per 625 PAs)
    .282 38 116 (.349/.563/.912)

    Those are better numbers than Willingham's, moon, and at fewer $$$ .Interesting. I like it.

    Your keypad to God's ears.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    In Response to Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox:
    [QUOTE]I have mentioned Cody Ross a few times. He kills LHPs and has pretty decent overall numbers as well. Career numbers per 625 PAs: .261 25 95 (.323/.456/.779) vs LHPs (per 625 PAs) .282 38 116 (.349/.563/.912) Those are better numbers than Willingham's, moon, and at fewer $$$ .Interesting. I like it. Your keypad to God's ears.
    Posted by summerof67[/QUOTE]

    Unlike softy, I won't take credit for "being the leader advocating Ross..." Someone else opened my eyes to this guy. (I can't recall who.)

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    What Papi decides will make a huge impact on our winter plans. We'll know soon, and I think then the peices will start falling into place.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    In Response to Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox:
    [QUOTE]What Papi decides will make a huge impact on our winter plans. We'll know soon, and I think then the peices will start falling into place.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Indeed, moon. If Papi takes the arb for one year, he will pull in $14 mil or thereabouts - a sizable chunk of the $20-$25 mil in wiggle room that the Red Sox allegedly have under the luxury tax. 

    I keep getting this sinking feeling that the FO is going to rely on Jenks in some capacity.  And if Bard is a starter, then they will need to make a sizable investment in a closer and a setup guy and a few retreads for middle/long relief.

    If they go with Kalish/Reddick in RF, and at this point I believe that they will, then that is one less moving part to worry about.

    Those pieces that will fall into place are going to make some thuds - hopefully, not rhyming with "duds."
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Some people have to much time on their hands. You don't have to write a book to get a point across.
    Make a statement, then provide the facts when challenged. Unless you are trying to convince yourself how smart you are, more than everyone else.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    In Response to Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox:
    [QUOTE]Some people have to much time on their hands. You don't have to write a book to get a point across. Make a statement, then provide the facts when challenged. Unless you are trying to convince yourself how smart you are, more than everyone else.
    Posted by Alibiike[/QUOTE]

    Can you provide some data on this point?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    I like reading your posts Moon...they are well thought out, make sense and make it easy for the rest of us to just add our thoughts without having to dig deep into the stats thing.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Thanks. I love this time of year, and want to hear people's ideas, but am turned off by people who think we can spend $30-40M this winter based on "losing Drew, Wake and Tek".
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    In Response to Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox:
    [QUOTE]2012 Salary Numbers (37 players listed on 40 man roster) ***based on average annual salary + bonuses of player/ years***                (last year's salary and year of arb) Salty          $__?___  ($750K/ 1 st  Arb  out of 3 years) AGon         $22M Pedroia       $6.7M Scutaro      $6.0 M Aviles        $__?__  ($640K/ 1 st  Arb  out of  3 years) Youkilis     $10.3M Crawford   $20.3M Ellsbury     $ __?___ ($2.4M in ‘11/ 2 nd  Arb. year out of 3) Reddick     $__?___  ($417K/ pre arb) Iglesias     $2.1M D.Mac      $__?__  ($470K/ 1 st  Arb out of 3 years) Lowrie     $__?__  ($450K/ 1 st  Arb out of 3 years)  Kalish      $__?__  ($417K/ pre arb) Lavarn.    $__?___  ($??) Anderson $__?__  ($415K/ pre arb) Exposito   $__?__  ($414K/ pre arb) Tejada      $__?__  ($414K/ pre arb)   Middlebrooks $_?_ ($?? / pre arb)   Lin            $__?__  ($?? / pre arb) Pitchers: Beckett   $17M Lester       $6M Buch         $8.5M Lackey    $16.5M Dice-K       $8.7M Miller        $__?__ ($??/ 1st of 3 arbs) Doubront $__?__  ($417K/ pre arb) Weiland   $__?__  ($?? ) Tazawa    $__?___  ($1.1M/ pre arb, then 2 arb yrs) Pimental  $__?___  ($414K/ pre arb)   Bard          $__?__  ($505K/ 1 st  Arb out of 3 years) Aceves      $__?__  ($650K/ 1 st  Arb of 3 years) Jenks         $6M Albers       $__?__ ($875K/ 3rd Arb year out of 4) Atchison   $__?__ ($454K/pre arb) Bowden    $__?__  (417K / pre arb) Morales    $__?__  ($424K/ 1st of 3 arbs) R.Hill         $__?__ ($?? / pre arb) D. Britton   $__?__ ($ ??/ pre arb)   Total: $130.1M already signed  (at average yearly salary of contract + bonus) Baseball Reference projects the 10 arbs we have will cost us about $31.5M The remaining 3 players assumed atavg pre arb cost would be about $2.2M The total payroll salary before any more signings... $163.8M Total Payroll Salary I'm not sure how or if the the pension contribution counts towards the luxury tax limit, but if it does not, then we only will have about...   $14M to spend on upgrades and stay below. We may have to go above the threshold to really keep this team strong. (Sidenote: I am open to any corrections or adjustments needed concerning the payroll budget or pension contribution.)  
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Good points moon but I think we can still make some nice moves and a couple significant trades starting with a guy like Garza.  Dice will also be off the books at some point and my guess is, even if Lackey returns and pitches well he won't finish out his contract in Boston.  Guys like Lackey and Jenks really hurt, I think CC will be fine but was also grossly overpaid.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Imagine where the Sox would be if they were actually paying Pedey and Lester their worth. The Sox would be right there with NY in the 200 million range.
     

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