Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    The Lackey and Crawford contracts are going to be an ongoing problem. It is up to John Henry to decide how much he is willing to spend on putting together a championship caliber club.  Losing Papelbon was not a very good start.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Imagine where the Sox would be if they were actually paying Pedey and Lester their worth. The Sox would be right there with NY in the 200 million range.

    It's common for good players to sign for below market value while they are in their arb years. They often get more than they would in arb, but then less after their arb years would have expired.

    If you add to the Sox budget for Lester, Pedey, and others, then wouldn't the Yanks have to do the same and be at about $210-220M?

    Isn't Cano worth more than $14M in today's market?
    Isn't Grandy worth more than $10M?
    What about Houghes, Gardner...?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Have a look at what starting pitchers have signed for thus far...

    Sabathia   $122M/5
    Buehrle       $58M/4
    Wainwright $21M/2
    Dempster   $14M/1
    Harang       $12M/2
    Capuano    $10M/2
    B.Chen       $9M/2
    Bedard       $4.5M/1
    C. Wang     $4M/1
    F.Garcia     $4M/1

    Some of these guys never truly hit the "open market", but of the ones who did, are there any here worth more to the Sox than what they signed for?

    Here's the RPs who have signed:
    Papelbon  $50M/4
    H. Bell      $27M/3
    Valverde   $9M/1
    Nathan     $14.75M/2
    F.Franc    $12M/2
    Affeldt        $5M/1
    M. Capps   $4.75M/1
    JLopez       $8.5M/2
    Frasor        $3.75M/1
    Rauch         $3.5M/1
    Farnswrth $3.3M/1
    Tatevama  $1M/1

    Minor deals:
    A. Russell & B. Sanchez
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Now, add Papi's projected arb siging or pre-arb contract deal to the mix, and we are very close to the Tax threshold.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    2012 Salary Numbers (37 players listed on 40 man roster)

    ***based on average annual salary + bonuses of player/ years***

                   (last year's salary and year of arb)

    Salty          $__?___  ($750K/ 1st Arb  out of 3 years)

    AGon         $22M

    Pedroia       $6.7M

    Scutaro      $6.0 M

    Aviles        $__?__  ($640K/ 1st Arb  out of  3 years)

    Youkilis     $10.3M

    Crawford   $20.3M

    Ellsbury     $ __?___ ($2.4M in ‘11/ 2nd Arb. year out of 3)

    Reddick     $__?___  ($417K/ pre arb)

    Ortiz          $__?___ ($12.5M in '11, will probably sign before arb)

    Iglesias     $2.1M

    D.Mac      $__?__  ($470K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years)

    Lowrie     $__?__  ($450K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years) 

    Kalish      $__?__  ($417K/ pre arb)

    Lavarn.    $__?___  ($??)

    Anderson $__?__  ($415K/ pre arb)

    Exposito   $__?__  ($414K/ pre arb)

    Tejada      $__?__  ($414K/ pre arb)

     

    Middlebrooks $_?_ ($?? / pre arb)

     

     

    Lin            $__?__  ($?? / pre arb)

     

    Pitchers:

    Beckett   $17M

    Lester       $6M

    Buch         $8.5M

    Lackey    $16.5M

    Dice-K       $8.7M

    Miller        $__?__ ($??/ 1st of 3 arbs)

    Doubront $__?__  ($417K/ pre arb)

    Weiland   $__?__  ($?? )

    Tazawa    $__?___  ($1.1M/ pre arb, then 2 arb yrs)

    Pimental  $__?___  ($414K/ pre arb)

     

    Bard          $__?__  ($505K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years)

    Aceves      $__?__  ($650K/ 1st Arb of 3 years)

    Jenks         $6M

    Albers       $__?__ ($875K/ 3rd Arb year out of 4)

    Atchison   $__?__ ($454K/pre arb)

    Bowden    $__?__  (417K / pre arb)

    Morales    $__?__  ($424K/ 1st of 3 arbs)

    R.Hill         $__?__ ($?? / pre arb)

    D. Britton   $__?__ ($ ??/ pre arb)

     

    Total: $130.1M already signed 

    (at average yearly salary of contract + bonus)


    Baseball Reference projects the 10 arbs we have will cost us about $31.5M, not counting Papi. My guess is Papi will get between $12.5 and 14.5M, putting the arb players at a total of about $44-46M.  

    The remaining 3 players assumed at avg pre arb cost would be about $2.2M

    The total payroll salary before any more signings...


    $176-178M Total Payroll Salary


    The Luxury tax threshhold is  $178M, so we are either not signing anyone of note, or we are going over the threshold, unless we trade away some salary.

    We may have to go significantly above the threshold to really keep this team strong.


    (Sidenote: I am open to any corrections or adjustments needed concerning the payroll budget. I did not count the pension contribution, which softy claimed was about $2M. If his figure is accurate, we are at the cap once the arb players are signed.)


     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    As usual, nice analysis by moon.

    So do the Red Sox:

    1. Shed current contracts to create payroll space below the threshold to pursue pitchers and address other needs?

    2. Add no significant salary to the current roster?

    3. Exceed the luxury tax threshold to address remaining needs?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    I like the idea of trading Youk while he still has value but finding a team that wants to take on his salary will be very hard...let alone getting good starting pitching in return.  The flip side is that he is one of the Sox two RH power hitters.  Unless they go above the cap...the Sox will be a weaker team next year.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    In Response to Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox:
    [QUOTE]As usual, nice analysis by moon. So do the Red Sox: 1. Shed current contracts to create payroll space below the threshold to pursue pitchers and address other needs? 2. Add no significant salary to the current roster? 3. Exceed the luxury tax threshold to address remaining needs?
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    We almost have to go over the arb, even if by a little. A few of my arb listings may be non-tendered, so there may be a little wiggle room.

    I'm beginning to think we may look at trading Youk or Scutaro. If they both stay, Lowrie is 99.9% traded (not much savind though). I still find it hard to believe that this team, trying to stay near the threshold, will not be fully utilizing their best MLB-ready prospect-- Lavarnway. I also personally see Iggy as at least being equally effective as Scutaro but from opposite sides of the spectrum.

    I'm not saying dump 3 of Youk, Scutty, Lowrie, and Salty. I would only trade them if we get quality in return...
     AT POSITIONS WE NEED DESPERATELY!

    If we could get a couple quality pitchers in return, I'd be OK with these guys at these slots:
    SS: Iggy/Aviles (Lowrie)
    3B: Aviles/Lowrie (Middlebrooks)
    C: Lavarnway /Some cheap vet (Exposito)

    Maybe St.L would make a nice offer for Youk. They have cash to spend and a big hole to fill.

    I know you think blockbuster trade deals are far-fetched, but here's one to ponder...

    Trade: 
    Craw: $122M/6
    Youk: $12M + '13 opt for $13M or $1M B/O
    Scut: $6M/1
    Salty: $??? 2nd arb out of 3.
    Weiland & Bowden
    Total cost: ~40M '12, $35M in '13 with Youk/$23M without, then about $20M/yr for 4 more years (Craw only).

    To StL

    For:
    Jaime Garcia: 12:$3.25M, 13:$5.75M, 14:$7.75M, 15:$9.25M, 16:$11.5M club option ($0.5M buyout), 17:$12M club option ($0.5M buyout)
    Lohse       $12.187M/1
    Berkman  $12M/1
    Y. Molina  $7M/1
    Total cost: ~34M for '12, then just Garcia.

    We get a nice young pitcher and about $6M in salary relief this year.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    n Response to Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox:
    I like the idea of trading Youk while he still has value but finding a team that wants to take on his salary will be very hard...let alone getting good starting pitching in return.  The flip side is that he is one of the Sox two RH power hitters.  Unless they go above the cap...the Sox will be a weaker team next year.
    Posted by traven

    I'm not saying I like this deal, but what about this modified deal ...

    Youk ($12M + $3M opt'13 or $1M buyout)
    Scutty ($6M)
    Jenks ($6M)
    for
    Lohse ($11.2M)
    Berkman ($12M)
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Given what is out there, i am fine cinching the lux tax belt to fill out the roster.

    That being said, I would be happy if they blew fiscal responsibility out of the water and put down a winning bid for Yu D's services.  Money mouth
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    They may make a big splash, if they see value in it. I think we will make a few small to mid deals to fill out the important slots and leave the rest to the kids.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    In Response to Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox:
    [QUOTE]They may make a big splash, if they see value in it. I think we will make a few small to mid deals to fill out the important slots and leave the rest to the kids.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I wish they would trade Scutaro and let Iglesias start the 2012 season at SS. Give the kid a shot! He could turn out to be a diamond in the rough.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Since the Sox would have had to pay Scutaro $1.5M to walk, we could pitch in $1.5M of his $6M deal and probably get more takers in trade. We'd break even on cash had we not taken the option, but then would have the player we get in return from the trade.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Didn't Scutaro play a decent SS and hit .295? Isn't  Inglesias an ongoing project and probably needs another year in Pawtucket. Why does AlibiIke type before thinking?
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Scutaro may have played a decent SS... years ago, but he has clearly been below average as a fielder with the Sox.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Who was available to replace Scutaro with his .295 batting average and adequate defense at $5 mil.?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    I like Scutaro, and he had a gutsy year. He came through in the clutch. His fielding was not good (and not really even "adequate" either), and I'm a big believer in having a great fielding SS. I think it's worth more than a .295 BA. We're already paying Iggy about $2M to play in AAA. You may not agree with my position, but I think that a great fielding Iggy batting .200 would have been as good as Scutty (and could be in 2012 as well). Being able to save money and not lose any ground at SS makes sense to me, if we use the money that Scutaro is getting on obtaining another pitcher. 

    It won't happen. I think Scutty us here at least until July. I doubt we trade Scutty, but it would be one way to free up some money to improve our staff. That was my point.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    The effect of the tax is significant for a team like the Yankees who must pay 40% more on contracts such as Sabathia and ARod. Sabathia's $25 mil. per year contact ends up costing $35 mil. and ARod's $27.5 mil. becomes $38.5 mil. The penalties on those two players total $23 mil. per year. My guess is that the Yanks were about $40 mil. over the threshhold so they had to pay only $16 mil. of penalty.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    I think the luxury tax rules now allow the rate to go down a notch if the team does not go over the cap for a year. The difference between going up one notch and down one notch in the rate can make a pretty big difference if the next year you go over by a lot. However, if a team just goes over by a million or so, the tax should not be an issue.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    Matthew Kory:

    The tax kicks in because the team has exceeded the threshold the previous two seasons. If Boston remains under the $178 million spending limit this season, they'll effectively reset the clock, allowing them to go over the threshold next season without penalty. But, if they spend over the tax threshold this season, they'll not only be taxed as stated above, but they'll also be subject to a 50% penalty on dollars spent over the threshold next season.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Luxury Tax Threshold and the Red Sox

    This may be incentive to stay under the limit for one year, but if we do go over by just a little bit, the tax would not be much, however, the longterm effects of maybe going over by more next year or beyond could be significant.

     I think it will be almost impossible not to go over the limit this year, unless we deal away some salary.
     

Share