In response to notin's comment:

I may be wrong, but wasn't Luis Tiant a minor league signing way back when?

No, but he may make up for it with unprecedented speed from that position. I'm not sure how well he fields 3B, but if he is better than Middlebrooks, we may move Midds to 1B and Cecchini's power at 3B is less of a differential.

 

 

Name me one team that is looking for, or has every looked for speed from the 1B position? The answer is probably none.

 

 

Paul Goldschmidt (but I see your point).  1B who can run should play RF. 

 

Would it be such a terrible thing to break a paradigm every now and then. 

I realize the reasoning behind using 1B as your position of great power, but if Cecchini can hit 15-18 HRs, get a bunch of DBLs, and also steal 50 bases, is he really a downgrade from a .245  35 HR hulk at 1B?

In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

made me laugh.  thanks.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

 

No, but he may make up for it with unprecedented speed from that position. I'm not sure how well he fields 3B, but if he is better than Middlebrooks, we may move Midds to 1B and Cecchini's power at 3B is less of a differential.

 

 

Name me one team that is looking for, or has every looked for speed from the 1B position? The answer is probably none.

 

 

Paul Goldschmidt (but I see your point).  1B who can run should play RF. 

 

Would it be such a terrible thing to break a paradigm every now and then. 

I realize the reasoning behind using 1B as your position of great power, but if Cecchini can hit 15-18 HRs, get a bunch of DBLs, and also steal 50 bases, is he really a downgrade from a .245  35 HR hulk at 1B?

 

Yes.  RBI's are twice more correlated with power than they are w/ BA.  Every year, Yankees finish somewhere in the 3-6 range for batting average, first in HRs , first in runs scored.

 

You cannot have enough power.  

Now if you have a masher at 3B, LF, RF, you can get away w/ a high OBP, athletic, defensive 1b.  However, the Red Sox, as currently constructed, do not have sufficient team power to get away with a 15 HR first baseman.

You really need 2 30 HR guys, and 3 other 20 HR guys (or elite pitching)

In response to ADG's comment:

It happens

 

 

How manu people realize Bill Buckner had more career SBs than HRs?

How manu people realize Bill Buckner had more career SBs than HRs?

Bill never had more than 18 HRs, and he had over 14 only 4 times in 22 seasons.

He had 31 and 28 SBs in his best 2 speed years in the mid 70's..

Now if you have a masher at 3B, LF, RF, you can get away w/ a high OBP, athletic, defensive 1b.  However, the Red Sox, as currently constructed, do not have sufficient team power to get away with a 15 HR first baseman.

You really need 2 30 HR guys, and 3 other 20 HR guys (or elite pitching)

I agree, but if Cecchini can hit 15-18 HRs, it's not like he has zero HRs. (AGon had only 18 last year.)

Cecchini has 55 2B+3B in about 650 PAs on the farm  (.446 Slg%). That can drive in a lot of runs as well, but he will not likely be batting 3-6th.

Moon - 15-18HR? He hit a total of 3 in Lowell in 2011 and 4 in Greenville (in over 500AB). Dream on.

In response to ADG's comment:

He's got the body type to develop a lot more power as he ages though.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Its about the rest of our team.  If in 2014 David Ortiz is still playing at a high level, Middlebrooks is hitting 25+, we find a couple of corner outfielders (internally or externally) hitting 25+, then I would be open to the idea of a non power hitting first baseman.

However, as Ive said.  You need to have either mashers in teh middle, or 20 HR hitts 2-7 in your lineup.  Power is so important.  I think its the second most important element to team construction (behind only starting pitching).

Out of the 5 teams with the most highest slg % last year (NYY, Tex, Mil, Col, LAA) , 4 were also top 5 of runs scored.  The only team that wasnt in the top 5 (Col) was sixth.

The Yankees were 8th in BA last year, but were first in HR, 2nd in runs scored.  San Fran was fifth in average, but 12th in runs scored.  

HR > Average.

The problem with average is many things need to go right to create one run.  You need a hit.  Then a steal.  Then another hit.  Or a hit with 0 outs.  A sacrifice.  Another hit.

HR's are instant runs (and often more than one at a time).

Overbay?  Good luck to him - I think his stay will be short and uneventful.

This post has been removed.

Overbay apparently has an opt-out clause if he does not make the team after Spring Training...

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

Pretty much agree with you. With Milwaukee and Toronto he was a doubles machine, now it's close to the end of the line for him. His numbers with Arizona last year weren't bad but at Atlanta, where he had a cup of coffee and finished the season, he had 2 hits in 20 at-bats with 8 strike outs in his role as a pinch hitter. Maybe it's just me but I have a hard time thinking that the front office has done anything exciting this off-season.

In response to Drewski5's comment:

The top 5 scoring teams last year were also among the top five in OBP.   The argument might be made that OBP has a better relevance to scoring that slugging, and than home runs. 

 

For example, the 2007 White Sox were second in the AL in home runs, yet were last  in scoring.  Why?  Lowest OBP in MLB that year...

 

 

In response to Triumph-'s comment:

The rate actually 60000k to boot.

In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

$600000K or $60K?

In response to ADG's comment:

He has 7 HRs in his first 650 PAs at ages 20-21. It's hardly a stretch to think he can reach 15.

In response to ADG's comment:

 

Sounds like if he performs in spring training, we have our back up first baseman. I know he did okay last year, until he was put in a pinch hitting role with the Braves.

 

Why would you want a sub whose role is backup firstbaseman, esp. when your starting 1B is expected to play vs LH and RH pitching?    Assuming the Sox keep 12 pitchers, they will have 4 subs, right?  Among the 4:

 

• One must be a catcher (Ross)
• One must be a middle infielder (Ciriaco?)
• One must be a (LHH/SHH) OF (Nava?  I hope not) and/or an OF that can field well. 

That leaves you with one open bench role at most.  Would you really choose a backup 1B over another outfielder or infielder?  Who can't run?  Or field a more challenging position?  Mid-game on the West Coast, and even the game after, if Napi got hurt, Salty or Papi could play first while a Gomez is flown out.

That's one of the reasons smart GMs look for flexible players....switch hitters, multi-positional players, Aceves-like swingmen pitchers, etc....it's a virtual expansion of rosters made so tight by the increase in pitching staff numbers.

In response to notin's comment:

Both.  It's 600 million Zimbabwean dollars.

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

Sort of like most major leaguers on every team.

 

And I don't think anyone expects anything much from Overbay.  The ceiling here is one or two key pinch hits...

In response to Drewski5's comment:

 

In response to moonslav59's comment:

 

Now if you have a masher at 3B, LF, RF, you can get away w/ a high OBP, athletic, defensive 1b.  However, the Red Sox, as currently constructed, do not have sufficient team power to get away with a 15 HR first baseman.

You really need 2 30 HR guys, and 3 other 20 HR guys (or elite pitching)

I agree, but if Cecchini can hit 15-18 HRs, it's not like he has zero HRs. (AGon had only 18 last year.)

Cecchini has 55 2B+3B in about 650 PAs on the farm  (.446 Slg%). That can drive in a lot of runs as well, but he will not likely be batting 3-6th.

 

Its about the rest of our team.  If in 2014 David Ortiz is still playing at a high level, Middlebrooks is hitting 25+, we find a couple of corner outfielders (internally or externally) hitting 25+, then I would be open to the idea of a non power hitting first baseman.

 

However, as Ive said.  You need to have either mashers in teh middle, or 20 HR hitts 2-7 in your lineup.  Power is so important.  I think its the second most important element to team construction (behind only starting pitching).

Out of the 5 teams with the most highest slg % last year (NYY, Tex, Mil, Col, LAA) , 4 were also top 5 of runs scored.  The only team that wasnt in the top 5 (Col) was sixth.

The Yankees were 8th in BA last year, but were first in HR, 2nd in runs scored.  San Fran was fifth in average, but 12th in runs scored.  

HR > Average.

The problem with average is many things need to go right to create one run.  You need a hit.  Then a steal.  Then another hit.  Or a hit with 0 outs.  A sacrifice.  Another hit.

HR's are instant runs (and often more than one at a time).

 

 

2012 San Francisco Giants -- 102 HR (last in the MLB)

2011 St. Louis Cardinals -- 162 HR (13th in MLB)

2010 San Francisco Giants -- 162 HR (10th in MLB)

2009 NYY -- 244 HR (1st in MLB)

2008 PHI -- 235 HR (2nd in MLB)

2007 BOS -- 166 HR (18th in MLB)

2006 STL -- 184 HR (12th in MLB)

2005 CWS -- 200 HR (5th in MLB)

2004 BOS -- 220 HR (5th in MLB)

2003 FLA -- 157 HR (18th in MLB)

 

Power is overrated.  Of the last ten WS winners;

:: 4 were in the top 5 for HRs over the season

:: 1 more broke the top ten

:: 2 were just in the top half of MLB, but didn't break the top 10

:: 3 were in the bottom half, and one of those was dead last.

That's not to say that lots of HRs don't help; obviously they do.  But it shows that many teams go all the way with average HR numbers, or even really low HR numbers. 

 

 

In response to ADG's comment:

That's probably true.  But it doesn't invalidate the value of a 1B with speed.  Traditionally teams look for corner players with power. Why?  Because up the middle there is a greater need for fielding i.e. speed and reflexes so to balance your team you generally look for power elsewhere. 

It reminds of the silly argument that you mustn't have 3 LHH OFs. Absurd.  If your other starters are predominantly LHH then it'd be a problem.  But in a predominantly right handed world with mainly RH pitchers, you want your main batting order to have 5 or 6 left handed hitters....does it matter much where they play in the field?

Here's the flip side:

League leaders in HRs:

2003 -- TEX, didn't go to post season

2004 -- CWS, didn't go to the post season

2005 -- TEX, didn't go to the post season

2006 -- CWS, didn't go to the post season

2007 -- MIL, didn't go to the post season

2008 -- CWS, went

2009 -- NYY, went and won WS

2010 -- TOR, didn't go to the post season

2011 -- NYY, went

2012 -- NYY, went

In the last ten years, the heaviest HR hitting team in all MLB missed the playoffs 6/10 times.

Power is overrated.

 

 

i like the overbay sgnning...back up 1B. what more do we want? he's a solid vet. and we needed a back up...we are good to go.