Median Runs

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    Median Runs

    A stat that measures quality on both sides of the ball is Median Runs scored and Median Runs allowed. I never paid any attention to it until Pike, of all people, mentioned it last year. Contrasting this year's first 21 games to last year's first 21 games and interesting picture develops. First of all, a few ahem, discussions were centered around roster composition and whether or not the line-up was "balanced" last year. Since "balanced" is a perception, and hard to quantitfy, it's meaning is subject to interpretation. One common sentiment last year was that Crawford was too similar to Ellsbury, and there wasn't an appropriate spot for him in the line-up. By the time he was healthy enough to play, the team was out of contention, and he found himself batting mostly second, and sometimes seventh. Two spots with completely differnt expectations. In 2011, he hit first or second just 17 times, third, a few times and mostly sixth or lower after that.

    The Frankenstein line-up created a monster of inconsistent scoring. The team in it's aggregate was among league leaders in offense, which made the focus on the pitching success or lack thereof more acute, and shifted responsibility for results away from the offense. Signing Mike Napoli was a huge step in the right "handed" direction. Through 21 games last year, they put up ten or more runs 6 times, but scored three or less 10 times. The whole effect was a Median Runs Scored of 4.

    The revamped 2013 team has scored ten or more just once, and has scored three or less 8 times. This has produced a more consistent or "balanced" offense with a Median Runs scored of 5. The First Place NYY last year had a Median Runs scored of 5. Clearly being able to get at least five runs per game increases your chances of winning more than you lose. The roster as currently assembled has shown the ability to be consistent on offense, and not just run up the score in blow-outs and against weaker clubs. Should they manage to maintain this trend an exciting season lays out before us. FWIW right handed power threat Mike Napoli leads the team in RBI, imagine that.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Median Runs

    In response to TV-Guy's comment:

    Do you have a link to any source of MLB statistics that provides median values of any statistic since I am unaware of any?  I ask this question to you, Moonslav, and Hill? Every source that I have ever been aware of has only had absolute total statistics or averages.

    Sometimes standard deviations and correlation coefficients are available but I have never seen any statistician ( including guru Bill James) employ the use of median values on baseball statistics.. Do you realize that the median value of 700 observations would involve  the task of ranking the observations from low to high value and choosing the middle value? 



    Go to BR, clicj on schedule and results, and go to the 81-82 value.  That's your median.

    FWIW, our median is 4.5 this year.

    The problem with the theory is that I'm not sure it is proveable.  I certainly agree that it is better to score 6 & 7, than 13 and -0-.  There isn't a lot of ways to tell if you have balance to your lineup, or if you just happen to have a lot of high scoring games, unrelated to your lineup.

    Do we even have criteria which suggests which types of players are more or less standard deviation?

     
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    Re: Median Runs

    Joe, as I said, it's hard to quantify balance, but I would say it's not hard to know if you have it or not. That's what GM's do over the winter and throughout the season. Otherwise, why sign any Free Agents or make trades? The addition of Adrian Beltre is a perfect example. Beltre gave us plus pop from the right side. Letting him go, and replacing him with A-Gon did not improve the line-up, and may have harmed it, as Youkilis shifted to third and became more succeptible to injury and lower production. The Angels are another study in this area, adding Pujolslast year and now Hamilton hasn't really made then much better. I would say that it's way to early to call the Hamilton deal. The Tigers adding Fielder to compliment Cabrera showed how "balancing" their line-up helped them.  The Mariners set out to balance their line-up as it was underperforming last year. Dumping Ichiro was a step in the right direction, yet Ichiro has perfectly complimented the Yankees. Different players bring different skill sets, and these sometimes subtle differences tip the scale from losing to winning. Shane Victorino's addition is another example.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Median Runs

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to TV-Guy's comment:

     

    Do you have a link to any source of MLB statistics that provides median values of any statistic since I am unaware of any?  I ask this question to you, Moonslav, and Hill? Every source that I have ever been aware of has only had absolute total statistics or averages.

    Sometimes standard deviations and correlation coefficients are available but I have never seen any statistician ( including guru Bill James) employ the use of median values on baseball statistics.. Do you realize that the median value of 700 observations would involve  the task of ranking the observations from low to high value and choosing the middle value? 

     



    Go to BR, clicj on schedule and results, and go to the 81-82 value.  That's your median.

     

    FWIW, our median is 4.5 this year.

    The problem with the theory is that I'm not sure it is proveable.  I certainly agree that it is better to score 6 & 7, than 13 and -0-.  There isn't a lot of ways to tell if you have balance to your lineup, or if you just happen to have a lot of high scoring games, unrelated to your lineup.

    Do we even have criteria which suggests which types of players are more or less standard deviation?



    If your staff is letting up 6 runs a game, in theory, a team would do better by scoring 10 runs a third of the games and 0-3 another third than scoring 4-5 runs almost every game.

    Median runs scored and allowed is a good way to look at how many games an offense or defense (w pitching) keeps you "in the game" and gives you a chance to win. 

    Last year, after softy's clownish "Do the Math" thread began, I went through the numbers of games we won or lost scoring and allowing a certain amount of runs. I then compared those numbers to the league average win% at thos e numbers and found the differentials. It was clear that our pitching staff was the root cause of much more losses than our offense, even though our offense was unbalanced, in the sense that we scored in bunches a bit more than most other teams.

    I know it's early yet, but I found it a bit encouraging to see us lose 13-0 and then win by a run the following night. That usually went the other way around in recent years.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Median Runs

    Currently, we are 3-3 in games where we scored 2-3 runs.

    Last year, we were 10-43 when scoring 2-3 runs.

     

    We are 9-0 when scoring 6 or more runs.

    Last year, we went 53- 11 in games scoring 6+ runs.

     

    It's still early, but the trend here is very encouraging.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Median Runs

    Sorry, Youk, but it just doesn't pass the common sense test with me.  I do understand the value of not having a succession of very good and very bad games at the plate.  But the reality with this team is that their pitching has been extremely good, especially the starters, who, even when they struggle, are holding opposing teams to 3 or fewer runs and last 5 or 6 or more innings--see Doubront the other night or Lester yesterday.  And forget median runs scored and look at the much simpler average runs scored, and the Sox are scoring almost 5 runs a game, which is pretty good when your ERA is like 3.36 or whatever.

    As for the Crawford thing, I think Victorino is a dead ringer for Ellsbury when Ellsbury's OBP is up, which it is not.  If Vic goes on the DL because of his back, I would move Pedroia, who so far has a high OBP but low OPS (for him), meaning not much power, back to the 2 slot and Ortiz back to the 3 slot, followed by Napoli and whoever, probably Nava until Middlebrooks can get untracked. 

    The Sox are scoring runs despite a so-so team OPS, which tells me they are getting timely hitting, and that absolutely applies to Napoli.  With Ortiz back and in fine fettle, the Sox OPS will rise when and if Ellsbury, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Drew, and Salty--maybe not all of them, but most of them--get back to their normal levels.  It also helps that Ellsbury leads the majors in steals with 10 and has yet to get caught stealing. 

    The neat things about Tuesday night's disaster are that no one got hurt, it gave the Sox a reason to move Aceves out, and they didn't score on a night when scoring would have been useless--they wasted no runs.  But yesterday they scored 6 runs when they absolutely needed all 6 of them. 

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Median Runs

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Sorry, Youk, but it just doesn't pass the common sense test with me.  I do understand the value of not having a succession of very good and very bad games at the plate.  But the reality with this team is that their pitching has been extremely good, especially the starters, who, even when they struggle, are holding opposing teams to 3 or fewer runs and last 5 or 6 or more innings--see Doubront the other night or Lester yesterday.  And forget median runs scored and look at the much simpler average runs scored, and the Sox are scoring almost 5 runs a game, which is pretty good when your ERA is like 3.36 or whatever.

    As for the Crawford thing, I think Victorino is a dead ringer for Ellsbury when Ellsbury's OBP is up, which it is not.  If Vic goes on the DL because of his back, I would move Pedroia, who so far has a high OBP but low OPS (for him), meaning not much power, back to the 2 slot and Ortiz back to the 3 slot, followed by Napoli and whoever, probably Nava until Middlebrooks can get untracked. 

    The Sox are scoring runs despite a so-so team OPS, which tells me they are getting timely hitting, and that absolutely applies to Napoli.  With Ortiz back and in fine fettle, the Sox OPS will rise when and if Ellsbury, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Drew, and Salty--maybe not all of them, but most of them--get back to their normal levels.  It also helps that Ellsbury leads the majors in steals with 10 and has yet to get caught stealing. 

    The neat things about Tuesday night's disaster are that no one got hurt, it gave the Sox a reason to move Aceves out, and they didn't score on a night when scoring would have been useless--they wasted no runs.  But yesterday they scored 6 runs when they absolutely needed all 6 of them. 



    I'd put Nava up 2nd until he proves he doesn't belong there.

    I actually like Papi up 3rd and Pedey 4th, but I'm sure I'm in a minority on that one. (Over his career, Pedey actually has better numbers from the 4 slot than the 2 slot.)

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Median Runs

    Moonslav, right now I'm thinking the 5 slot is more important than the 2 slot because Ortiz and Napoli are going so well.  Nava has shown some power this year and has an OPS over 1000, but Pedroia's OPS is in the low 700's because he has exactly 2 xbh's, both doubles.  He is getting on base, but not hitting with power and not hitting, I'm guessing here, with RISP.  When his OPS is up, he is a good bet in the 4 slot. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: Median Runs

    Haven't looked at any definitive numbers, but last year it seemed that the offense fell behind early and was always looking up and needing to come back. The Starting pitching has been very good by not putting pressure on the offense. They can relax and look for small advantages like working the count and hitting the other way. Having players that can both be patient and direct their attempts at putting a ball in play has helped too. Since more runs get scored in the middle third of a game, it's good to put these advantages to work.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Median Runs

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Moonslav, right now I'm thinking the 5 slot is more important than the 2 slot because Ortiz and Napoli are going so well.  Nava has shown some power this year and has an OPS over 1000, but Pedroia's OPS is in the low 700's because he has exactly 2 xbh's, both doubles.  He is getting on base, but not hitting with power and not hitting, I'm guessing here, with RISP.  When his OPS is up, he is a good bet in the 4 slot. 



    Put Pedey up 4th and the slugging % will go up automatically.

     

    Wink

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: Median Runs

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Sorry, Youk, but it just doesn't pass the common sense test with me.  I do understand the value of not having a succession of very good and very bad games at the plate.  But the reality with this team is that their pitching has been extremely good, especially the starters, who, even when they struggle, are holding opposing teams to 3 or fewer runs and last 5 or 6 or more innings--see Doubront the other night or Lester yesterday.  And forget median runs scored and look at the much simpler average runs scored, and the Sox are scoring almost 5 runs a game, which is pretty good when your ERA is like 3.36 or whatever.

    As for the Crawford thing, I think Victorino is a dead ringer for Ellsbury when Ellsbury's OBP is up, which it is not.  If Vic goes on the DL because of his back, I would move Pedroia, who so far has a high OBP but low OPS (for him), meaning not much power, back to the 2 slot and Ortiz back to the 3 slot, followed by Napoli and whoever, probably Nava until Middlebrooks can get untracked. 

    The Sox are scoring runs despite a so-so team OPS, which tells me they are getting timely hitting, and that absolutely applies to Napoli.  With Ortiz back and in fine fettle, the Sox OPS will rise when and if Ellsbury, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Drew, and Salty--maybe not all of them, but most of them--get back to their normal levels.  It also helps that Ellsbury leads the majors in steals with 10 and has yet to get caught stealing. 

    The neat things about Tuesday night's disaster are that no one got hurt, it gave the Sox a reason to move Aceves out, and they didn't score on a night when scoring would have been useless--they wasted no runs.  But yesterday they scored 6 runs when they absolutely needed all 6 of them. 




     Max, appreciate the well thought out comments. I consider Median Run, both sored and allowed, as a back of the envelope tool to get a quick glimpse. The Mariners were awful last year, their median runs scored was only three, their average runs scored was 3.82, their average runs allowed was slightly higher at 4.01. The Median tells you right away, they have an offense problem.

     
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