Mental Lapses

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    Harness, your comments about that guy Rocks make me wonder about your use of the term "independent leagues." Do you mean the kind that players like, say, Drew join after they refuse to sign, and where over-the-hill pros try to hang on, like Conseco.  These teams are usually located in small cities. Or do you mean local amateur leagues that operate in and around cities and towns?  
    It doesn't seem likely that a team in the former kind of league would keep someone likes Rocks around.  
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from billsrul. Show billsrul's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Mental Lapses : On the bloop play, the runner should not "go," if you mean keep running all out. He should position himself so that he can return to first if the ball is caught or keep moving if the ball is not.  'Percentages" are not involved because the runner can't know the percentage of times that plays ends up one way or another. Now here is a percentage: the risk of getting doubled up on a blooper is too great to gain one base if the ball drops. A base is worth an out. Teams will sacrifice to move a runner one base.  So if the runner keeps going, he's risking two bases against the chance of gaining one. That's not very smart.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    This is the type of thinking that is completely wrong.  The reason those "rules" are put into place is because managers don't trust their baserunners to make those "percentage calculations (more like estimations really)" on the fly.  On a "bloop" hit like that, there is some percentage chance that the ball could be caught, and some chance that the ball drops (fielders don't get the same jump every time on the ball, if a fielder has to dive he could either mistime the dive or the ball could pop out of his glove, etc.).  Minimally, there are way too many variables for the runner to conclusively determine whether the ball will be caught.  If the runner determines (and is fairly good at determining) that there is say, a 90% chance that that blooper falls (meaning it would take an incredible play by the fielder to catch the ball), then it is clearly worth it for him to run, since the possibility of gaining that extra base is more than likely worth the out. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from billsrul. Show billsrul's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Mental Lapses : I think Bill's point requires much more exemplification. The example he does give shows a runner not playing the percentages but playing against the percentages: risking two outs to gain one base. If  an out is worth a base, the man is risking two bases to gain one. That's a lousy percentage play, and ones like it will kill a team over the course of a season. 
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    Here's my exemplification (i absolutely love that word, which is why I italicized itCool). 

    Let's take this situation.  Man on 1st base, 1 out.  A short blooper is hit between the right fielder and 2nd baseman.  If the runner runs immediately, he can make it to 3B (in reality, there's more variables here).  If he waits for the ball to drop (or until he thinks he knows) the ball will drop, he'll only make it to 2B.  Makes sense so far, right?

    We'll assume this situation is the early innings of a game, so scoring one run is not of the essence (a late-game situation would be completely different).

    An "expected runs matrix" tells you on average, how many runs were scored (on average) in different situations (baserunners and number of outs).  This doesn't take lineup position into account (nor does it take a host of other variables into account), but it proves my general point.  Here are the run expectancies from 2005 (most updated one i could find):

    1 out, runners on 1st and 2nd: .9143
    1 out, runners on 1st and 3rd: 1.183
    2 out, runner on 1st: .237
    3 out, no runners on: 0 (this one i just threw in for fun, obviously)

    Now, if the runner goes and the ball drops, there will be 1 out, runners on 1st and 3rd.  If the ball is caught, there are 3 outs.  Assuming it's 50/50 whether or not the ball drops, the "run expectancy" if the runner runs is:

    1.183 (number of "runs scored" if ball drops)* .50 (chance ball drops) + 0 (number of "runs scored" if runner is doubled off)*.5 (chance ball is caught)=
    .5915 runs scored

    If the runner stay and the ball drops, there will be 1 out, runners on 1st and 2nd.  If the ball is caught, there will be 2 outs, runner on 1st.  If the runner stays, the "run expectancy" is (using the same formula as above):

    (.9143*.5)+(.237*.5)= .57565 runs per inning. 

    There is certainly much more to the argument.  The moment at which the runner decides to "run" decides the "percentage" chance he would make it to the base.  Obviously all the "run expectancy" values change with the exact game situation (pitcher, lineup spot, etc.).  I'm not even trying to argue that if there's a 50% chance the ball drops in this situation, that the runner should run.  I think it's really pretty inconclusive and game-situation dependent.  Furthermore, having a runner try to "compute" all these percentages would be extremely difficult.

    All I'm trying to exemplify here is that there are some situations in which getting doubled off is actually an ok "percentages play" and not a poor decision.  It's really the same thing as going for an extra base on a single, since only one out is truly being risked (since if the ball is caught, that's already one out anyways).  The same goes for getting picked off. 

    My guess is, the reason those "rules" were created is because managers didn't trust to their baserunners to make the right split-second decisions, so they simply told the runners to take the low-risk option.  It's the same reason football teams always punt on 4th down when in their own territory (or often times even when in the opponent's territory).
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]Harness, your comments about that guy Rocks make me wonder about your use of the term "independent leagues." Do you mean the kind that players like, say, Drew join after they refuse to sign, and where over-the-hill pros try to hang on, like Conseco.  These teams are usually located in small cities. Or do you mean local amateur leagues that operate in and around cities and towns?   It doesn't seem likely that a team in the former kind of league would keep someone likes Rocks around.  
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    This is a hell of a good discussion. I don't want to ruin it by further discussing an ape, like ROCKS. My independent leagues reference was somewhat what you described.
    One of them was a joke. A quick put together that allowed the likes of a ROCKS.
    But the other was quite good, on a league with the CapeCod league. In fact, scouts frequented it. Good times.

    Getting back to the subject matter, I'm curious if UR definition of "mental lapses" leaks into managerial decision-making.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Mental Lapses : This is the type of thinking that is completely wrong.  The reason those "rules" are put into place is because managers don't trust their baserunners to make those "percentage calculations (more like estimations really)" on the fly.  On a "bloop" hit like that, there is some percentage chance that the ball could be caught, and some chance that the ball drops (fielders don't get the same jump every time on the ball, if a fielder has to dive he could either mistime the dive or the ball could pop out of his glove, etc.).  Minimally, there are way too many variables for the runner to conclusively determine whether the ball will be caught.  If the runner determines (and is fairly good at determining) that there is say, a 90% chance that that blooper falls (meaning it would take an incredible play by the fielder to catch the ball), then it is clearly worth it for him to run, since the possibility of gaining that extra base is more than likely worth the out. 
    Posted by billsrul[/QUOTE]
    Ah, ha,  now you've added 90% chance of dropping. Why didn't you specify THAT percentage in the first place? Anything short of that and the percentage is 2 to 1 against you.  The runner is risking two outs for one base. Play that kind of "percentage" baseball and your W-L percentage will not be snazzy.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Mental Lapses : This is a hell of a good discussion. I don't want to ruin it by further discussing an ape, like ROCKS. My independent leagues reference was somewhat what you described. One of them was a joke. A quick put together that allowed the likes of a ROCKS. But the other was quite good, on a league with the CapeCod league. In fact, scouts frequented it. Good times. Getting back to the subject matter, I'm curious if UR definition of "mental lapses" leaks into managerial decision-making.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]
    Yup, managers get clogged between the ears too.  Your own example of Terry's leaving both Lester and Lackey in too long will serve as an example. His "explanation" doesn't hold up. Call it a mental lapse or just not thinking clearly or being stubborn or "saving the pen" ( when a team needs every win it can 
    get ) or....  It was a bad idea. That's mental. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Girardi-Inept. Show Girardi-Inept's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    Talk about mental lapses. Did you see what Girardi did tonight? He left Nova in after he was terrible and everyone in the Stadium knew it but Girardi. Took him out finally when it was 8-0. I expect that Nova was wanting to come out but Joe left him out there to be embarassed in front of 45,000 fans. Stupid Joe.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Mental Lapses : Yup, managers get clogged between the ears too.  Your own example of Terry's leaving both Lester and Lackey in too long will serve as an example. His "explanation" doesn't hold up. Call it a mental lapse or just not thinking clearly or being stubborn or "saving the pen" ( when a team needs every win it can  get ) or....  It was a bad idea. That's mental. 
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    I agree he mis-managed Lester/Lackey, but I wouldn't phrase it as a mental lapse. He was thinking alright. What, I don't know. He prioritized "saving the pen". His excuse is lame IMO, but he did explain his reasoning. If he acted on a thought process, how can it be a "lapse"?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    Talk about mental lapses. Did you see what Girardi did tonight? He left Nova in after he was terrible and everyone in the Stadium knew it but Girardi. Took him out finally when it was 8-0. I expect that Nova was wanting to come out but Joe left him out there to be embarassed in front of 45,000 fans. Stupid Joe.

    I didn't see the game, but this doesn't appear that Nova was gettng rocked...

    Top of 2:

    Royals second. Hosmer homered to right on a 0-0 count. Betemit singled to right. Treanor safe on fielder's choice and Cano's error, Betemit to second. On catcher's passed ball, Betemit to third, Treanor to second. A.Escobar grounded out, third baseman Al.Rodriguez to first baseman Teixeira. Aviles hit an infield single to third, Betemit scored, Treanor to third. Me.Cabrera doubled to left, Treanor scored, Aviles to third. On Cervelli's error, Aviles scored, Me.Cabrera to third. Gordon walked. Butler grounded out, pitcher Nova to first baseman Teixeira, Me.Cabrera scored, Gordon to second. Francoeur singled to right, Gordon scored. Hosmer lined out to right fielder Swisher. 
    Runs: 6, Hits: 5

    2 errors, a passed ball, and an infield hit.

    I guess after the solo blast in the 4th, he could have bee yanked, but that was 7 runs by then.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Mental Lapses : I agree he mis-managed Lester/Lackey, but I wouldn't phrase it as a mental lapse . He was thinking alright. What, I don't know. He prioritized "saving the pen". His excuse is lame IMO, but he did explain his reasoning. If he acted on a thought process, how can it be a "lapse"?
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]
    Oh, for goodness sake, call it a mental mistake.  Bad reasoning is a mental mistake.  

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Mental Lapses : This is a hell of a good discussion. I don't want to ruin it by further discussing an ape, like ROCKS. My independent leagues reference was somewhat what you described. One of them was a joke. A quick put together that allowed the likes of a ROCKS. But the other was quite good, on a league with the CapeCod league. In fact, scouts frequented it. Good times. Getting back to the subject matter, I'm curious if UR definition of "mental lapses" leaks into managerial decision-making.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]
    I was under the impression that the only other league of this kind even close to the Cape Cod League is in Alaska.  There used to be many more. ( I played in one in Texas. )  Maybe the league you played in was pretty good at the time
    ( when was that? ), but it would had to have been stocked with talent to match the Cape Cod one.
    Scouts frequent high school games. But in this case did they advise guys to play in your league for a look-see?  Were you invited to compete in that league after high school? In leagues of the calibre you mention, participation is normally by invitation only -- almost always on the basis of a recommendation from a coach or scout.  

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    No, it wasn't Alaska! Although I wouldn't mind going there now.
    It was by invitation after I spent some time in that joke of a league after high-school. Around the latter 70's. Players had varying ambitions. Some just wanted to play. They didn't care about the scouts. I did, as I was pretty young.

    I threw in the 80's, but had a good slider. In fact, I have bone chips in my elbow to this day.

    I think we disagree on terminology. Bad reasoning is bad reasoning. It's not a lapse. Some managers aren't too bright. To blame one for making poor decisions is more a reflection of inability.

    Same for players. Some aren't as sharp as others. The line between that and mental lapses is thin, depending on how you care to address it.
    A "lapse"is a "slip"...a deviation from the norm.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    Unless you contend that Terry consistently mismanages the pitching staff, he slipped when he left both  Lester and Lackey in too long.  His reasoning was a notch or two beneath his norm. That's a lapse.  
    That's also true of players.  Pedey, for instance, normally does not swing at as many bad pitches as recently. He's had lapses.  Same with guys getting picked off or doubled off, and so on -- unless there is mitigation, about which you and I disagree. 
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    Huh, seems odd that players in a league on a par with the Cape Cod or Alaska leagues would not all have been so talented as to have ambitions for big things. Most, if not all, of those players would already have been ticketed by scouts or were playing on the recommendation of scouts because of what they did in high school or were doing in college.  
    Unless someone were a high school phenom, he wasn't likely to be invited to play in one of those leagues. In fact, if he had no intention of attending college, he probably was signed.  
    The leagues that I played in were high-powered, and everyone was already considered some kind of prospect, with the exception of a few fill-in ex-pros. In Texas, one of the teams had Tom McBride, who played for Boston in the war years.  ( He homered off me but went 1 for 4. )
    I'm just saying what I knew of those leagues and how they operated. Maybe yours was different.  
     
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    Re: Mental Lapses

    Pedey is in a slump. No way I call that a lapse. It has to do with his approach, either mental and/or physical. If you break down a slump, then you must breakdown the thought process. If his mechanics are poor, then studying video with Magadan is required. I'm sure it's being addressed. If he's unaware of something, is that a lapse?

    Ex-Pitch, I didn't say the players weren't ambitious.They were. It was quite serious in that league. I'm saying that they were realistic about their chances of going on to bigger things.
    My analogy to the CC league was through hear-say. I never played in the CC league myself. I would have liked to, but my health didn't allow for that kind of window.
    The choice for me was an alternative to college. And I loved the game.

    I ended up in college anyway once I was able to function physically. But I never liked it. I felt like I was cheated.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    Being unware is a sign of a lapse. There is an absence of what used to be there.
    For a while Pedey was not thinking whatever he had thought to keep him from swinging at so many bad pitches.  He's healthy, so a habit of bad mechanics signifies some kind of lapse.  The result, right, is a slump. If the cause isn't physical, it must be mental in some sense. It has looked to me as though Pedey was over-eager -- up there hacking, trying to pull everything.  Maybe he thought he had to do it all since the club was not hitting.  I don't know what else to call that except a lapse from the norm.  
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    Well, I suppose that's true. But I also think hitting is reactionary. In fact, it's the toughest aspect of the game, which is why I don't criticize it. But I can see UR point in that a slump defined is a hitter getting into bad habits.

    If the cause is a physical adjustment, does that put the 'lapse' on Madagan?
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    From what you have said, I doubt seriously that the hearsay comparing your league to the Cape Cod one had much credibility.  Over the years, many players from the Cape Cod, Alaska, and similar leagues at the time ultimately played pro ball, and many of them made it to the bigs. Was that the case with  your league?
    I'm sure that you would have liked to have played in the Cape Cod league, but before you got sick, was there an indication of interest at a level suggesting that you might have been invited to play there?  As I've said, the players in that league and similar ones were and are typically either high school phenoms who are headed to college or are getting a last look-see before a signing decision is made, or college players who are thought to have pro potential.

     
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    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]From what you have said, I doubt seriously that the hearsay comparing your league to the Cape Cod one had much credibility.  Over the years, many players from the Cape Cod, Alaska, and similar leagues at the time ultimately played pro ball, and many of them made it to the bigs. Was that the case with  your league? I'm sure that you would have liked to have played in the Cape Cod league, but before you got sick, was there an indication of interest at a level suggesting that you might have been invited to play there?  As I've said, the players in that league and similar ones were and are typically either high school phenoms who are headed to college or are getting a last look-see before a signing decision is made, or college players who are thought to have pro potential.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    Long time back. But from my recollection, I think a few did eventually sign minor league deals. I kinda lost touch.
    Some ended up facing ex-big leaguers who were quite a bit past it.
    Others went on to play in other leagues.
    MY time there was unfortunately limited.

    Two weeks before I got sick ( I have the same thing that got Eric Davis. At least he had his time), I was told there was some interest from a Baltimore O's scout. A few of us were mentioned. I was one of them.

    Realistically, I doubt anything would have come of it. I didn't throw hard enough and my frame wasn't what is prioritized. But I learned a great deal. That's what first alerted me to the pitcher-catcher equation. I never realized the level of variance in catchers and their effect on pitchers.

    That's why I believe it's more an ability than familiarity. It involves flexible communication skills. And close focus on hitter adjustments/reaction to every pitch - every at bat. Along with game-calling skills and target placement. A poor catcher would compromise my confidence. How about you?
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    I don't know about the lapse being on Magadan. Odds are he talked to Pedey about hacking at the outside pitch and swinging at balls near his eyeballs. But players can get into the kind of brain rut that nullifies advice.  That is maddening for both player and instructor -- and it happens with some frequency precisely because hitting is so hard.   
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    Thing is, Pedey generally swings at pitches that aren't always strikes. So, it's not uncharacteristic of him. His frame allows for a short strike zone. His swing gives him access to drive pitches many can't get to.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]Thing is, Pedey generally swings at pitches that aren't always strikes. So, it's not uncharacteristic of him. His frame allows for a short strike zone. His swing gives him access to drive pitches many can't get to.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]
    At his eyeballs? Bouncing in the dirt?  Trying to pull the pitch on the outside corner -- a strike? He would not have the record he has if these habits were "not uncharacteristic of him."
    Methinks you are reaching -- just like Pedey has recently done too much off. Ho.

     
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    Re: Mental Lapses

    Ya know, maybe this experience will make him re-think his approach. If he normally had the plate discipline/patience of Youk, his numbers would be scary. But how it affects his aggressive nature is another thing.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    In Response to Re: Mental Lapses:
    [QUOTE]Ya know, maybe this experience will make him re-think his approach. If he normally had the plate discipline/patience of Youk, his numbers would be scary. But how it affects his aggressive nature is another thing.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]
    What Pedey has been doing at the plate is not "aggressive."  There is no easy term for what Pedey has done to post his record, but whatever it is he should get back to it.  Are you suggesting that if he's more disciplined and patient than he has been, it will negatively affect his hitting? That doesn't make sense.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Mental Lapses

    Who was your source for the interest that the O's scout was alleged to have shown?  Stuff like that doesn't just hang in the air.  Could it also have been hearsay?  In my experience, scouts who have any interest at all at least chat up someone to lay a foundation in case they decide later to offer a contract. They are competing with other scouts and like to get a foothold.  
     

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