Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Will Middlebrooks has now played 75 games this year and 75 games last year, the equivelent of a full season.

    Compare:

    2012: 286 PA, 34 R, 77 H, 14 2B, 15 HR, 54 RBI, .288/.325/.509/.835, 29 XBH
    2013: 296 PA, 31 R, 63 H, 17 2B, 12 HR, 38 RBI, .231/.278/.425/.703/ 29 XBH

    Oh, and his K/BB was 70/13 last year and 77/17 this year. So his strikeout rate was only slightly higher this year as was his walk rate.

    So for his first 150 games, basically a full season in 582 PA and 540 AB, he had:

    65 runs scored, 31 2B, 27 HR, 92 RBI, 30 BB, 147 K, .259/.301/467/.768.

    That's a pretty good rookie year. So what we have to see is this. Which is Middlebrooks closer to being?

    The player who was on a 30 HR, 108 RBI, .288 BA pace for 150 games last year.

    The player who is on a 24 HR, 76 RBI, .231 BA pace for 150 games this year.

    Or the guy in the middle who has 27-92-.259 for his first 150 games.

    If he's the guy in the middle next year, I'll take 27-92-.259 for a full season from my starting 3B next year. While 147 Ks are high, it's not terrible.  It wouldn't have put him in the top 10 last year and likely won't this year.

    I'll take the .259 BA with the power and run production but, but I'd still like to see it at least 20 points higher.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Batting 6th makes the most sense IMO.  

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    If Middy can bat between 260-280, thats a good hitter in MLB. I'd like to see the OBP north of .320 for sure.

    He profiles as a typical #5 hitter in the lineup. I believe he learned a lot being sent down. It has humbled him and made him a better all around MLB player. I dont see the Sox letting this kid go like some here suggest.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    If Middy can bat between 260-280, thats a good hitter in MLB. I'd like to see the OBP north of .320 for sure.

    He profiles as a typical #5 hitter in the lineup. I believe he learned a lot being sent down. It has humbled him and made him a better all around MLB player. I dont see the Sox letting this kid go like some here suggest.



    I agree. I can live with 25-plus HR, 80-plus RBI, .250-plus (.260-plus if preferable) BA and .320-plus OBP from him regardless if he plays 3B or 1B.

    And it would be great if he's closer or becomes the 30-HR, 100-RBI player.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    if he drives in ~100 per I wont complain about whatever his BA ends up being....

    the full single season is a long haul. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Hopefully, he is neither the player last year or the player this year going forward, but instead the player since returning from AAA.

    Will Middlebrooks has a .936 OPS since returning from AAA. Before he left, he had a 9/60 BB/K rate. Its 8/17 since.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    My concern with WM has always been the glove.  We don't know yet, but the early signs aren't great.  Can he play a solid 3B?

    The avg OPS at 3B for 2013 is 733.  (NYY are 29th at  604 (Youk oops))

    To play 3B in Bos he will need to be at least avg with the glove and mature into >780 bat. IMO

    At 1B the 2013 avg is 771.  Let's say he manages a 310 OBP (332 in minors), I'd say he needs to slug >500 to play in Bos.  So far SLG  MLB  467   MiLB  455

    He is young and he played less baseball when young than normal.  I'd say he has a 50/50 chance of making it as a starter in Bos.

    Rizzo also 24: 2013   230   326   425

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    My concern with WM has always been the glove.  We don't know yet, but the early signs aren't great.  Can he play a solid 3B?

    The avg OPS at 3B for 2013 is 733.  (NYY are 29th at  604 (Youk oops))

    To play 3B in Bos he will need to be at least avg with the glove and mature into >780 bat. IMO

    At 1B the 2013 avg is 771.  Let's say he manages a 310 OBP (332 in minors), I'd say he needs to slug >500 to play in Bos.  So far SLG  MLB  467   MiLB  455

    He is young and he played less baseball when young than normal.  I'd say he has a 50/50 chance of making it as a starter in Bos.

    Rizzo also 24: 2013   230   326   425

     




    I agree. His glove is not good and probably never will be. Its been over rated his whole career. It is however, a tollerable glove if the offense is there.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    I would hope that he can just be a solid player at 3rd base.

    I don't expect a Brooks Robinson type glove, or a Mike Schmidt type bat.

    This is hard to judge on the small sample size, remember Blalock, Chavez, Zimmerman and I believe SD had a phenom at 3rd a few years back?...only Zimmerman is still doing well with Washington, the others kind of fell off the radar. I think Blalock had an injury that forced him out of the Texas lineup and he never was the same.

    "Advertising is legalized lying."- H.G.Wells

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    He gets a lot of zip on the ball to first when covering infield hits. And he does surprisingly well bare-handing the ball for throws. Those two things count for something defensively.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonBruinss. Show BostonBruinss's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI


    Amazing stats, future face of the franchise.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    You never know how good a guy can become defensively. Many good to great fielders started out average or below average in the field.

    Middlebrooks' throwing improved from last year after working with Mike Lowell in the spring. His glove isn't terrible, so I can see him improving defensively if he works at it.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI


    I think he is probably somewhere in between, but he has Babip of around .304 so he needs to cut down on the K's....put the ball in play 25 more times and that average is closer to .275. He is a guy making adjustments and he seems to be doing it well.....This year he had 60K's in his 1st 203 PA or 1 every 3.38 PA.... since his return he has had 17 in 80 PA or 1 every 4.71 PA.....if he had had the same ratio, 1 in every 4.71 plate appearances over his first 150 games, he would only have 124 K's instead of 147....Pitchers make adjustments and players have to adjust back....Will seems to be doing that.....I have high hopes for him being an All Star caliber 3B

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Still early, I think (and hope).  I'm looking for improvements at bat and in the field.  That said, Drew is now looking like next year's SS, which could put Bogaerts at 3B and Middlebrooks at 1B, which, as noted by someone else above, demands an even better bat than 3B. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonBruinss. Show BostonBruinss's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Helllll yeahhhhhhh. The new Manny, Middlebrooks!!!!!!!!!1

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to BostonBruinss' comment:

    Helllll yeahhhhhhh. The new Manny, Middlebrooks!!!!!!!!!1


    The Red Sox will be fortunate if Will Middlebrooks posts a season-long on-base percentage 100 points lower than the .411 career on-base percentage of Manny Ramirez.

    Middlebrooks has posted an OBP of .302 in his "first season."

    However, the streaky Middlebrooks has certainly been on fire since his return.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to BostonBruinss' comment:

    [QUOTE]Helllll yeahhhhhhh. The new Manny, Middlebrooks!!!!!!!!!1



    The Red Sox will be fortunate if Will Middlebrooks posts a season-long on-base percentage 100 points lower than the .411 career on-base percentage of Manny Ramirez.

     

    Middlebrooks has posted an OBP of .302 in his "first season."

    However, the streaky Middlebrooks has certainly been on fire since his return.

    [/QUOTE]

    If I was a gambling man, and I am, I'd be willing to bet that Will Middlebrooks turns out to be an All Star ballplayer, despite the Minor League "stats."  It's been a bad year for you Hill, as you pretty much doomed the Sox (and Middlebrooks) since last November based on your "Fangraph stats," but maybe this whole season has made you appreciate the "human elemant" of the game of baseball a little bit more.  I tried to explain to you over and over again how the Sox weren't a "69 win team" talent wise, but you didn't want to hear it.  Embrace the "human elemant" of baseball and maybe you'll enjoy it more...

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Great to see him playing and hitting better since his return from the minors.  Hard to predict with him.  Wait and see how he does the rest of this season and next then . . .

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonBruinss. Show BostonBruinss's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to BostonBruinss' comment:

    [QUOTE]Helllll yeahhhhhhh. The new Manny, Middlebrooks!!!!!!!!!1



    The Red Sox will be fortunate if Will Middlebrooks posts a season-long on-base percentage 100 points lower than the .411 career on-base percentage of Manny Ramirez.

     

    Middlebrooks has posted an OBP of .302 in his "first season."

    However, the streaky Middlebrooks has certainly been on fire since his return.

    [/QUOTE]

    One can dare to dream. Will has the most all star potential on this team. GO WILL

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to BostonBruinss' comment:

    Helllll yeahhhhhhh. The new Manny, Middlebrooks!!!!!!!!!1

    The Red Sox will be fortunate if Will Middlebrooks posts a season-long on-base percentage 100 points lower than the .411 career on-base percentage of Manny Ramirez.

    Middlebrooks has posted an OBP of .302 in his "first season."

    However, the streaky Middlebrooks has certainly been on fire since his return.

    If I was a gambling man, and I am, I'd be willing to bet that Will Middlebrooks turns out to be an All Star ballplayer, despite the Minor League "stats."  It's been a bad year for you Hill, as you pretty much doomed the Sox (and Middlebrooks) since last November based on your "Fangraph stats," but maybe this whole season has made you appreciate the "human elemant" of the game of baseball a little bit more.  I tried to explain to you over and over again how the Sox weren't a "69 win team" talent wise, but you didn't want to hear it.  Embrace the "human elemant" of baseball and maybe you'll enjoy it more...



    I've enjoyed the Red Sox resurgence this year as the Sox have already surpassed my projection of 84 wins. What the Red Sox have accomplished to date has been truly impressive.

    But if I were a gambling man, and I'm not, I would say the streaky Will Middlebrooks has a less than 50 percent chance of ever being an All Star. I hope Middlebrooks proves me wrong.Smile

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    I said at the beginning of the season this guy would go through a sophomore sump this year.  I didn't think it was going to be as horrible as it was earlier this year, I remember debating with many in here n giving him patience and advocating to keep him as opposed to trading WMB.  I'm glad I stuck with him

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    I said at the beginning of the season this guy would go through a sophomore sump this year.  I didn't think it was going to be as horrible as it was earlier this year, I remember debating with many in here n giving him patience and advocating to keep him as opposed to trading WMB.  I'm glad I stuck with him

     



    Like all young players he had to make adjustments in his approach and refine his mechanics so he could better handle the ball on the outer half.. his trip to AAA allowed him to work on staying through the ball without the glare of the big league spotlight. In watching the game the other night they showed his stance before and after being sent down. In April he used an open stance, now he's setup with both feet on the same plane...which allows him to stay through the ball and drive it to right...thus he can now handle both the fastball and breaking stuff on the outer half while still being able to turn on the ball. 

    While some among us continue to make declarations about his current ability and project his being a marginal player...while it could well be true, it it not in fact proven...I would suggest that the kid has the upside to be an impact player, perhaps he might never be an All Star...that's really not important. In the end there's a long line of former and current big leaguers that never reach that lofty goal that go on to have long and productive careers playing at or above what would be the league average...

    in the end it's on Middlebrooks to put in the work and if he does and finds his ceiling...Then goes out and hits 6th or 7t. In our lineup with 20 homers, drives in 80 and hits .275 with a 320 ish OBP we have Mike Lowell without the gold glove. if they move him to first and he puts up similar numbers we have Kevin Millar without the facial hair, he doesn't have to be a hall of farmer to be a productive player.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Will Middlebrooks' current outburst approaches Mark Reynolds' nine-game surge from August 31 to September 8 last year when the streaky slugger posted a .364/.447/1.182/1.629 line with nine homeruns for the contending Baltimore Orioles.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=reynoma01&t=b&year=2012

    Reynolds remains a reasonable comp for Middlebrooks.

    MR2012 538 PA, .221/.335/.429/.763, OPS +108

    MR2013 443 PA, .223/.316/.383/.699, OPS+ 96

    WM2012 286 PA, .288/.325/.509/.835, OPS+ 120

    WM2013 306 PA, .237/.282/.445/.727, OPS +94

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonBruinss. Show BostonBruinss's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Will Middlebrooks' current outburst approaches Mark Reynolds' nine-game surge from August 31 to September 8 last year when the streaky slugger posted a .364/.447/1.182/1.629 line with nine homeruns for the contending Baltimore Orioles.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=reynoma01&t=b&year=2012

    Reynolds remains a reasonable comp for Middlebrooks.

    MR2012 538 PA, .221/.335/.429/.763, OPS +108

    MR2013 443 PA, .223/.316/.383/.699, OPS+ 96

    WM2012 286 PA, .288/.325/.509/.835, OPS+ 120

    WM2013 306 PA, .237/.282/.445/.727, OPS +94



    Oh god please,Mark Reynolds and his 200 strike outs a year? Just sit back and enjoy the show, the kid is raking the ball.  Who knows what he will be, Im hoping Jeff Bagwell. He is young and is developing at an amazing pace.  

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Will Middlebrooks is still a young player on the cusp of his MLB career, there's still a learning curve that I presume he is moving up.  He's obviously is in a hot streat right now so I'm not saying he's going to be better than he's been the last month.  What I am saying is if you weight his ups and downs evenly I think he has room to grow from that player.

    I don't think Reynolds is a great comp, he's the strike out king in the prime of his career.  Similar in many senses.  They are both free swingers, and if WMB was the player he was earlier this year and continued to play as such I'd see him with similar numbers; low average but with BIG time power.  I have high hopes for WMB, he was the #1 prospect in the system 16 months ago for good reason.  Of course the systemseemed a it weaker last year with less talent in the high minors.  If WMB was a prospect now, he'd probably still be in the 3-5 range and the system is stacked now.

     
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