Mike Carp

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Or a very high BABIP.

     Carps' BABIP last year was .385.  For his career it is .333.

     His BABIP outlier numbers were on fly balls and slightly over on groundballs.  He was actually below league average on line drives...

    Yeah, I have doubt that some regression is in order.  But he still has a .781 OPS for his 761 career ABs.  It's not a huge sample, but I am having trouble thinking about why he couldn't continue that.



    Of course, a .781 OPS means he replaces Stephen Drew (.777) or Ellsbury (.781).  Fine for the bottom or top of the order.  But is Mike Carp a guy you want batting 5th?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    the OPS numbers you are quoting are via controled PA's. He is most productive playing a controled and selective amount of PA's. 

    The team would also be giving up excellent 1B defense in replcing Naploi for Carp.

    Why would this team lose payroll flexibility paying Napoli? This isnt a $90M payroll, it is a $175M payroll. They can pay players with a more certain predictability.  

    I don't see anything that indicates that his low number of PAs is responsible for his production.  That would be the type of thing that would get exposed by a player with bad splits, which Carp doesn't have.

    And having more flexibility is always better than less.  If the chocie was between signing Napoli for $42M/3, or signing Hart cheap for one year, per Saennyboi, I'd go with Hart/Carp.

    FWIW, I don't care for his K/W, and that might be exposed, but I'd really have very little concern about him getting a lot of ABs.




    Or a very high BABIP.

     

    Carps' BABIP last year was .385.  For his career it is .333.

     

    His BABIP outlier numbers were on fly balls and slightly over on groundballs.  He was actually below league average on line drives...




    Based solely on BABIP regression, which player would you project to have a higher OPS next season?

    A--885 OPS--385 BABIP
    B--842 OPS--367 BABIP

    AS for Carp's career .781 OPS, that is from a player between 23-27 who played most of his career playing home games in Safeco. Based on age and park factors, I think expecting a .781 OPS next year is not realistic.

    I don't think its unreasonable to think Carp could out perform Napoli. Should be somewhat close. Both should be in the low to mid 800's.

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    AS for Carp's career .781 OPS, that is from a player between 23-27 who played most of his career playing home games in Safeco. Based on age and park factors, I think expecting a .781 OPS next year is not realistic.

    You do know that Carp hit better at home than away while with Seattle, right?

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    AS for Carp's career .781 OPS, that is from a player between 23-27 who played most of his career playing home games in Safeco. Based on age and park factors, I think expecting a .781 OPS next year is not realistic.

    You do know that Carp hit better at home than away while with Seattle, right?

     



    I didn't. With small samples, things like that happen. Doesn't mean you should expect that to continue. He also had a large reverse split his first 4 seasons. None the less, the Red Sox ignored those stats and played him almost exclusively against righties. Worked out well.

    Offensively, he reminds me of Adan LaRoche. Goes the other way pretty well with good power. I think if you asked him where he would hit better, we both know he would not say the old Safeco.Smile

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Or a very high BABIP.

     Carps' BABIP last year was .385.  For his career it is .333.

     His BABIP outlier numbers were on fly balls and slightly over on groundballs.  He was actually below league average on line drives...

    Yeah, I have doubt that some regression is in order.  But he still has a .781 OPS for his 761 career ABs.  It's not a huge sample, but I am having trouble thinking about why he couldn't continue that.



    Of course, a .781 OPS means he replaces Stephen Drew (.777) or Ellsbury (.781).  Fine for the bottom or top of the order.  But is Mike Carp a guy you want batting 5th?



    Yes, but I am looking at Carp from a value-perspeective.  If this was Naps, and fans spoke of a .781, alarm bells would start going off.  If you projected .825 for Naps, and $14M, and .775 for Carp, for about $1M, whcih player would you choose?  I'd prefer Carp, and spend teh $13M savings on a decent mid-level catcher and the BP.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

     

    Based solely on BABIP regression, which player would you project to have a higher OPS next season?

    A--885 OPS--385 BABIP
    B--842 OPS--367 BABIP

    That's one of the reasons I like Carp, and that is that I think Napoli would be a huge risk for three years.  At a level of 450 PAs, the are 170 players.  Napoli is #2 in K%.  I thin k it would be a mistake assume regression for Carp and no regression for Napoli.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Yes, but I am looking at Carp from a value-perspeective.  If this was Naps, and fans spoke of a .781, alarm bells would start going off.  If you projected .825 for Naps, and $14M, and .775 for Carp, for about $1M, whcih player would you choose?  I'd prefer Carp, and spend teh $13M savings on a decent mid-level catcher and the BP.

     

    You have to look at these guys from a value perspective.  The moves that any GM makes are not made in isolation.  Every move made affects future moves.  It's not about what player can we get to give us the best possible first baseman.  It's about what player can we get at 1B that will allow us to build the best team, not only this year, but for future years.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    AS for Carp's career .781 OPS, that is from a player between 23-27 who played most of his career playing home games in Safeco. Based on age and park factors, I think expecting a .781 OPS next year is not realistic.

    You do know that Carp hit better at home than away while with Seattle, right?

     



    I didn't. With small samples, things like that happen. Doesn't mean you should expect that to continue. He also had a large reverse split his first 4 seasons. None the less, the Red Sox ignored those stats and played him almost exclusively against righties. Worked out well.

    You blamed his poor previous ML numbers on the same sample size... just over 600 PAs with Seattle and the fact that playing in Seattle hurt his numbers. 

    While I agree that he'd have had better numbers had he played in Fenway his whole career, his numbers with Seattle actually showed that his road games hurt him more than his home games. That's all I was pointing out.

    Offensively, he reminds me of Adan LaRoche. Goes the other way pretty well with good power. I think if you asked him where he would hit better, we both know he would not say the old Safeco.Smile

    Agreed, but the guy has still not proven himself, and I doubt we go into 2014 counting on him to be anything more than a platoon player who starts vs righties only. Eventually, he may get a longer look vs lefties, but we will have in place a righty just in case.




     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    Yes, but I am looking at Carp from a value-perspeective.  If this was Naps, and fans spoke of a .781, alarm bells would start going off.  If you projected .825 for Naps, and $14M, and .775 for Carp, for about $1M, whcih player would you choose?  I'd prefer Carp, and spend teh $13M savings on a decent mid-level catcher and the BP.

    .775 is totally unacceptable from the 1B position and would represent about a 100-200 point OPS deficit vs most ML teams' 1Bman.

    I get the money part of your argument, but the 1B position is not one that can be sacrificed so drastically on offense.

    I happen to think that a Carp/Nava platoon with Middy and Papi perhaps getting time there as well, can come up with an .825 to .850 OPS, but if Carp hits .775, he won't be playing long.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    Based solely on BABIP regression, which player would you project to have a higher OPS next season?

    A--885 OPS--385 BABIP
    B--842 OPS--367 BABIP

    That's one of the reasons I like Carp, and that is that I think Napoli would be a huge risk for three years.  At a level of 450 PAs, the are 170 players.  Napoli is #2 in K%.  I thin k it would be a mistake assume regression for Carp and no regression for Napoli.



    K rate is near meaningless, if a guy produces like Napoli.

    Also, have you seen Carp's K-rate?

    How can you not like Naps because of his K rate, but like Carp despite his?

     

    Here's an interesting look at Sox hitters in 2013:

            LD%

    1) Salty 28.6

    2) Nava 26.1

    3) Drew 25.2

    4) Naps  24.4

    5) Carp  24.3

    6) Ortiz 22.6

    7) Vict  22.4

    8) Pede 21.6

    9) Ells   21.0

    10) Mid 20.2

    11) Gom 19.7

    12) Igle  18.4

     

    K rate

    1) Naps  32.4

    2) Salty  29.6

    3) Carp   27.6

    4) Midd   26.2

    5) Drew  24.8

    6) Gom   24.3

    7) Nava  17.4

    8) Ortiz  14.7

    9) Ells     14.5

    10) Vict  14.1

    11) Igg   12.8

    12) Pede  10.4

     

    SLG%

    1) Ortiz  .564

    2) Carp  .523

    3) Naps .482

    4) Salty .466

    Notice how our 3 top K rate guys were top 4 in SLG%.

    Carp and Naps also had very good OBPs of just over .360, and Salty had his career best OBP of .338.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    Carp put up some nice numbers in the Minors, patience and Playing time has hurt his progress.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    Carp put up some nice numbers in the Minors, patience and Playing time has hurt his progress.



    If people want to adjust Carp's ML numbers up due to playing so many games in Safeco, then they should adjust his PCL numbers downwards for the minors.

    Besides, his large minor league sample size of 3.552 PAs of which 1393 were in the PCL produced an overall OPS of .832. That's not a bad number, but it is 50 points lower than is number in 2013, and if you adjust his minor league number downwards due to so many games played in the PCL, then one could easily expect regression in 2014 apart from the whole BAbip argument and more playing time argument which might include more PAs vs LHPs.

    1) adjusted minor league OPs of maybe .820

    2) higher than normal BAbip in 2013

    3) projected more PAs ve LHPs

    Three good reasons to project regression if Carp gets significantly more PAs in 2014 than 2013.

     

    Name some supported reasons why we should even expect the same OPS in 2014 assuming he gets more playing time...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Yes, but I am looking at Carp from a value-perspeective.  If this was Naps, and fans spoke of a .781, alarm bells would start going off.  If you projected .825 for Naps, and $14M, and .775 for Carp, for about $1M, whcih player would you choose?  I'd prefer Carp, and spend teh $13M savings on a decent mid-level catcher and the BP.

    .775 is totally unacceptable from the 1B position and would represent about a 100-200 point OPS deficit vs most ML teams' 1Bman.

    I get the money part of your argument, but the 1B position is not one that can be sacrificed so drastically on offense.

    I happen to think that a Carp/Nava platoon with Middy and Papi perhaps getting time there as well, can come up with an .825 to .850 OPS, but if Carp hits .775, he won't be playing long.




    There not going to have a 4 man platoon at 1b with 3 LHH. Nava is better from the left side. IF they were to platoon Carp at 1b, there would be a RHH opposite him. Papi(except in NL parks) and def Middy are out of the 1b discussion for 2014. WMB is not getting shifted over to a new position if he hasnt even fully proven himself at 3b yet. Whether its due to injuries or a poor hitting approach, The Sox arent shifting him over to 1b until he at least gets a full year in MLB at 3b. His numbers arent good enough for 1b.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    He has some good numbers against AL EAST opponents, including the Sox. .287 BA in his career at Fenway.
    He pinch hits alot, and platoons, so wouldn't some numbers not be accurate, compared to a regular season?

     In limited games as a 1st Baseman he's a darn good Fielder.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Yes, but I am looking at Carp from a value-perspeective.  If this was Naps, and fans spoke of a .781, alarm bells would start going off.  If you projected .825 for Naps, and $14M, and .775 for Carp, for about $1M, whcih player would you choose?  I'd prefer Carp, and spend teh $13M savings on a decent mid-level catcher and the BP.

    .775 is totally unacceptable from the 1B position and would represent about a 100-200 point OPS deficit vs most ML teams' 1Bman.

    I get the money part of your argument, but the 1B position is not one that can be sacrificed so drastically on offense.

    I happen to think that a Carp/Nava platoon with Middy and Papi perhaps getting time there as well, can come up with an .825 to .850 OPS, but if Carp hits .775, he won't be playing long.




    On August 24th, Mike Napoli had a .770 OPS. Thats less then .775. Were you saying that was totally unnaceptable or just concerning and less then prefferable? At that point, he also had just a .787 OPS for his 2012-2013 seasons combined. Totally unnaceptable? My point being that Napoli isn't that much better then what you call totally unnaceptable.

    I agree, I would prefer some right handed insurance if we went with Carp. If we sign Drew, it could be Middlebrooks, allowing us to go without a utility infielder. Otherwise, it would force the team to use Victorino as the bacup CF, allowing an additional 1st base type like Hart, Hassan, etc.

    I would still sign Napoli on a one year 15 million contract. My concern is his health and age if we go to 3 years. Two is 50-50 for me. Might depend on where else we could spend the money. But I would be comfortable with Carp-Middlebrooks at 1st.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Yes, but I am looking at Carp from a value-perspeective.  If this was Naps, and fans spoke of a .781, alarm bells would start going off.  If you projected .825 for Naps, and $14M, and .775 for Carp, for about $1M, whcih player would you choose?  I'd prefer Carp, and spend teh $13M savings on a decent mid-level catcher and the BP.

    .775 is totally unacceptable from the 1B position and would represent about a 100-200 point OPS deficit vs most ML teams' 1Bman.

    I get the money part of your argument, but the 1B position is not one that can be sacrificed so drastically on offense.

    I happen to think that a Carp/Nava platoon with Middy and Papi perhaps getting time there as well, can come up with an .825 to .850 OPS, but if Carp hits .775, he won't be playing long.

     




    There not going to have a 4 man platoon at 1b with 3 LHH. Nava is better from the left side. IF they were to platoon Carp at 1b, there would be a RHH opposite him. Papi(except in NL parks) and def Middy are out of the 1b discussion for 2014. WMB is not getting shifted over to a new position if he hasnt even fully proven himself at 3b yet. Whether its due to injuries or a poor hitting approach, The Sox arent shifting him over to 1b until he at least gets a full year in MLB at 3b. His numbers arent good enough for 1b.

     




    I didn't say we'd have a 4 man 1B platoon. Papi only will play 1B in 2 out of 3 NL park games. Middy will probably only play 1B in case of injury.

    Middy may never "prove himself" at 3B. He seems to be getting worse on defense- not better. Shifting him to 1B might be doing him a favor, but that can only happen if we pick up a FT SS. Bogey moves to his best spot: 3B, Nava can stay where he belong: LF. And, perhaps Middy and Carp platoon at 1B until one proves he deserves the full gig.

    2013:

    Carp vs RHPs:  .904

    Middy vs LHPs: .782

    '12 Middy vs LHPs: .906

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Yes, but I am looking at Carp from a value-perspeective.  If this was Naps, and fans spoke of a .781, alarm bells would start going off.  If you projected .825 for Naps, and $14M, and .775 for Carp, for about $1M, whcih player would you choose?  I'd prefer Carp, and spend teh $13M savings on a decent mid-level catcher and the BP.

    .775 is totally unacceptable from the 1B position and would represent about a 100-200 point OPS deficit vs most ML teams' 1Bman.

    I get the money part of your argument, but the 1B position is not one that can be sacrificed so drastically on offense.

    I happen to think that a Carp/Nava platoon with Middy and Papi perhaps getting time there as well, can come up with an .825 to .850 OPS, but if Carp hits .775, he won't be playing long.




    On August 24th, Mike Napoli had a .770 OPS. Thats less then .775. Were you saying that was totally unnaceptable or just concerning and less then prefferable? At that point, he also had just a .787 OPS for his 2012-2013 seasons combined. Totally unnaceptable? My point being that Napoli isn't that much better then what you call totally unnaceptable.

    No, on August 24th I was telling everyone that Napoli was a streaky hitter and there was no reason to think he was all done. As expected, he got hot and ended up with decent stats.

     

    I agree, I would prefer some right handed insurance if we went with Carp. If we sign Drew, it could be Middlebrooks, allowing us to go without a utility infielder. Otherwise, it would force the team to use Victorino as the bacup CF, allowing an additional 1st base type like Hart, Hassan, etc.

    Let's assume we sign Drew and not Napoli.

    Our defense improves at these positions:

    SS: Drew > Bogey

    3B: Bogey > 2013 Middy

          (I am assuming Bogey improves with winter 3B workouts & ST)

    1B: Middy/Carp > Nava/Carp

    LF: Nava/Gomes > Gomes alone

     

    I would still sign Napoli on a one year 15 million contract. My concern is his health and age if we go to 3 years. Two is 50-50 for me. Might depend on where else we could spend the money. But I would be comfortable with Carp-Middlebrooks at 1st.

    They say his hip looks better now than last winter. I like Napoli too, and I think he might do even better next year. I'm Ok with 2-3 years, but realize there is a risk.




     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    .775 is totally unacceptable from the 1B position and would represent about a 100-200 point OPS deficit vs most ML teams' 1Bman.

    The average AL 1B is at .777.  Even if it is totally unacceptable, it is only totally unacceptable by .002.  AL teams without a .775 are WS, NYY, TBR, MN, CLE, LAA, Tex, SEA, and Houston.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    .775 is totally unacceptable from the 1B position and would represent about a 100-200 point OPS deficit vs most ML teams' 1Bman.

    The average AL 1B is at .777.  Even if it is totally unacceptable, it is only totally unacceptable by .002.  AL teams without a .775 are WS, NYY, TBR, MN, CLE, LAA, Tex, SEA, and Houston.



    Taking that a step further, the only teams that beat the .775 are TO, with EE @ $9M, BA with Davis, RS with Napoli $14M, Det with Fielder at $24M, and KC with Moustakas.

    So the only more cost-effective solutions are EE, Davis, and Moustaks.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Taking that a step further, the only teams that beat the .775 are TO, with EE @ $9M, BA with Davis, RS with Napoli $14M, Det with Fielder at $24M, and KC with Moustakas.

    So the only more cost-effective solutions are EE, Davis, and Moustaks.

    Should that be Eric Hosmer with Kansas City?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    .775 is totally unacceptable from the 1B position and would represent about a 100-200 point OPS deficit vs most ML teams' 1Bman.

    The average AL 1B is at .777.  Even if it is totally unacceptable, it is only totally unacceptable by .002.  AL teams without a .775 are WS, NYY, TBR, MN, CLE, LAA, Tex, SEA, and Houston.



    OK, maybe saying "totally unacceptable" was a bit hyperbolic, you got me.

    But this is a team that is losing Ellsbury, Drew, and Salty: all top 5-8 offensive players at their positions in 2013. I do not think we can have a 1Bman with a sub .800 OPS. Even .800 will be hard to overcome, unless we get some big boppers at some other spots.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    Out of 42 1Bmen with 300+ PAs in MLB this year, 11 were over .830, 14 were over .800, and 16 were over .777.

    Go to 400+ PAs and you get to 30 1Bmen:

    10 over .830

    13 over .800

    14 over .777

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Here were Carps splits before coming to Boston:

    vs RHPs:  .323/.398/.721

    vs LHPs:  .341/.462/.802

    A Fluke you ask?

    Here are his minor vs R/L splits:

    2012: .638/.766

    2011: .926/.890

    2010: .907/.518

    2009: .865/.729

    2008: .911/.792

     

    He's been all over the map, but was clearly better vs RHPs in the minors until 2012.



    This is good info Moon.  I was looking at his MLB numbers, but his minor league stats show that he does have a split.  The good thing is that from 2011 on he seems to have improved as a hitter against lefties and that alone could be the reason why his numbers have been so improved.  I love Carp as a hitter and I would love to get him more at bats, but I love it even more if they pick up Hart as is rumored and make Carp a platoon mate with Corey.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/boston_red_sox/index.html

    To me this makes a whole heck of a lot of sense.  We get another year to see if Carp is for real and we get some protection in case he isn't or if there is an injury to any one of the big boppers in the lineup.  Hart has very similar numbers to Trumbo, whom some people were suggesting to trade Middlebrooks and Doubront for.  That made no sense... a move to pick up Hart where you don't have to give up a pick makes all the sense in the world.  I said earlier that I hope the Sox pursue Hart and it looks like they are. 

    This is a very good draft year and I think the Sox are really pushing to hoard as many draft picks as possible as they should.  It is a good way to make a successful team and to make the team sustainable.  You can't feel anything but good with how this team is operating under Ben.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    For the record, this is why I am drooling over the thought of Hart being a platoon mate with Carp next season.

    Over the past three years Hart played, he has a 966 OPS vs. left handed pitching with a 391 OBP, 575 SLG and he K's half as often as when he goes against righties.  If you look at the same numbers against right handed pitching, that goes way down to a still respectable 820 OPS, 490 SLG and 330 SLG with many more K's per BB.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    FYI, there is a good interview with Bradford on WEEI's website with Carp if you have 20 minutes to kill

     

    http://audio.weei.com/a/84075327/the-bradford-files-catching-up-with-mike-carp.htm

     
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