Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to notin's comment:



    The splits do not show it, but Carp hits RHP better than LHP.

     

    He does have a higher K%, but no much. (24% to 23.2%)

    yet somehow has a lower BABIP against RHP (.296 to .372). 

     




     

     

    Although the numbers you gave were interesting and show he isn't quite as bad vs. righties as it seems, I think the two key numbers above stand out.

    First, the BABIP numbers tell me he is more lucky against lefties then unlucky against righties. This is bad news.

    Second, the 24% K rate against righties is pretty bad.

    When adding a LF or 1B to a top level team, you want somebody that can hit. When that player is not good defensively and can't run, he better hit a lot. And if he is borderline and is expected to be platooned, he better tear up his opposite side pitchers. A 721 OPS against righties isn't remotely interesting to me.

     

    Your numbers indicate there will be some leveling of his splits. But mostly with his numbers against lefties coming down, which will just make his overall numbers worse.

    As for his overall talent, he put up just a .832 OPS in the minors while playing 40% of his minor league career in the PCL at an average age. Compare that to Travis Shaw who has a career .884 OPS without playing in a great hitters league ever. Although Shaw was a year behind, I think they are in a similar arc, with Shaw maybe having a slight edge. The big difference between the two is that Shaw hasn't failed at the big league level yet, isn't on the 40 man,  and has options. P.S.........Shaw also runs better, has better size, better K/BB rates and better defensive potential.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    Shaw is not in the equation yet.  He has 110 at-bats above A-ball in his career...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    Seattle probably will take the best offer for Mike Carp before Monday or Tuesday when the Mariners otherwise would need to place Carp on waivers. Alternatively, the M's could let Carp go to waivers in hopes that he'll clear waivers and be assigned to the Seattle farm system.

    I'm still not sure what would be a reasonable return in a trade of Carp with his current status of designated for assignment.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:
    rese to BMav's comment:

    The main idea behind Carp is to platoon him at 1st and LF. His reverse splits kind of kill that idea. I would not trade anything of value for him. That would include anybody in the Sox top 30 prospects. Not sure I even claim him off waivers.

    If he clears waivers I might sign him to a similar deal that Overbay has. Personally, I am for eventually trading for a good young guy like Morrison.

     OPS+

    For what it's worth, Mike Carp and Logan Morrison, who is only 13 months younger than Carp, each remain under team control for four years. Baseball Reference has Carp with 0.6 WAR in 173 career games and Morrison with 0.1 WAR in 278 careers, although FanGraphs has Carp with a career WAR of 1.1 and Morrison a career WAR of 2.4.

    One year younger. Much better minor league resume. Better k/bb rates. Better splits. Injured, which hurt Morrison's major league numbers. Otherwise they are about the same.




    Mike Carp's injury-plagued 2012 season dropped his career OPS+ from 119 to the 110 he currently shares with Logan Morrison.

    I don't think it is particularly close.  Morrison was a much more highly rated minor league prospect.  Much better career K/W.  Better road OPS.  Carp will get you very little in return, if anything.  Lomo will still cost you a legitimate prospect.



    I agree that Logan Morrison would most certainly fetch more in a trade than Mike Carp would for the reasons you listed and because of Carp's current designated-for-assignment status. However, the stats I provided suggest that Morrison might be overrated and Carp underrated.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to notin's comment:

    Shaw is not in the equation yet.  He has 110 at-bats above A-ball in his career...




     

    Certainly not suggesting Shaw is an option for the big club now. Just comparing their minor league pedigree and overall talent.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    Shaw is not in the equation yet.  He has 110 at-bats above A-ball in his career...

     




     

     

    Certainly not suggesting Shaw is an option for the big club now. Just comparing their minor league pedigree and overall talent.



     

    But to me the issue is LF in 2013.  I hope Nava and Sweeney can do the job, but I want an immediate upgrade there if possible...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    Shaw is not in the equation yet.  He has 110 at-bats above A-ball in his career...

     




     

     

    Certainly not suggesting Shaw is an option for the big club now. Just comparing their minor league pedigree and overall talent.

     



     

     

    But to me the issue is LF in 2013.  I hope Nava and Sweeney can do the job, but I want an immediate upgrade there if possible... age.




    Me too. But Carp is not an upgrade. Sweeney is a much better defender with a career OPS 28 points higher against righties. And most of that edge is in the more important OB average. Both played mostly in pitchers parks. Both about the same age.

    Sweeney>Carp

    Oh and Nava>Carp too as a platoon guy.

    Hopefully we trade for X>Sweeney

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    I like Sweeeney and was glad he came back.   Of all these guysm he is the only one I would not mind seeing play LF.  I picture Nava, Gomes and Carp being a litttle too timid of the wall along the LF foul line, and letting way too many flyballs down that way land fair.  Sweeney will slide into the wall headfirst and make the play.  He might concuss himself, but he will make the play.

    I see no harm in bringing Carp on board, however, and seeing what he can do.   Sweeney is on a minor league deal, and Nava has an option left, so neither needs to be released.  (Overbay can opt out on opening day if he so choses.  I won't miss him.)

    Bottom line really is, if they get Carp, fine.  If they miss out or pass, it won't ruin the season...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Overbay, minor league contract, is a better option that clearing storage space for Carps.




    Of course, Overbay is not on the 40-man roster, either, so "storage space" needs to be moved to accommdate him as well.   He is reportedly interested in OF duty, but I prefer Sweeney or Nava over Overbay out there...

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:


    Of course, Overbay is not on the 40-man roster, either, so "storage space" needs to be moved to accommdate him as well.   He is reportedly interested in OF duty, but I prefer Sweeney or Nava over Overbay out there...


    In his Sunday column, the Globe's Nick Cafardo reported that the Red Sox have discussed Mike Carp but that the Sox might not have room for Carp because of the commitment to Lyle Overbay:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/cafardo-on--2.html#disqus_thread

    Carp and Overbay provide interesting career parallels in that each had a slow start at the MLB level. Through his age 26 season, Carp has an OPS+ of 110 in 608 plate appearances. Through his age 26 season, Overbay had an OPS+ of 90 in 305 plate appearances. Overbay now has a career OPS+ of 108 in 5,020 plate appearances.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     


    Of course, Overbay is not on the 40-man roster, either, so "storage space" needs to be moved to accommdate him as well.   He is reportedly interested in OF duty, but I prefer Sweeney or Nava over Overbay out there...


    In his Sunday column, the Globe'sNick Cafardo reported that the Red Sox have discussed Mike Carp but that the Sox might not have room for Carp because of the commitment to Lyle Overbay:

     

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/cafardo-on--2.html#disqus_thread

    Carp and Overbay provide interesting career parallels in that each had a slow start at the MLB level. Through his age 26 season, Carp has an OPS+ of 110 in 608 plate appearances. Through his age 26 season, Overbay had an OPS+ of 90 in 305 plate appearances. Overbay now has a career OPS+ of 108 in 5,020 plate appearances.



    The big differences are 1) Carp has actually layed the OF, whereas Overbay never has.  And 2) Carp is 26 and never had a full time MLB position for a significant period of time, whereas Overbay has spent numverous seasons.   So there is potential for Carp to imprive whereas Overbay is what he is, and is probably aging towards retirement.

    However, committing to one or the other is unlikely to make much difference in the Sox season this year.  They apparently do not view either as even a potential starter for a strong side of a platoon...

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    The Globe's Nick Cafardo reports that the Red Sox are among the clubs interested in Mike Carp:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/303635421550759936

    Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik expects to complete a trade of Carp within the next 24-48 hours, according to the Milwaukee beat reporter for MLB.com:

    http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/2013/02/18/brewers-have-checked-on-carp/

    Carp's agent, Tom O'Connell, met Monday with Boston GM Ben Cherington at the Red Sox spring training facility, although their conversation may have centered on troubled Boston reliever Alfredo Aceves, who is another O'Connell client:

    https://twitter.com/nickcafardo

    http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2013/02/aceves_agent_me.html

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    The Red Sox will complete the Mike Carp acquisition by sending cash to Seattle at the end of the month, according to Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal:

    https://twitter.com/brianmacp/status/310093718344572929

    Carp had struck out eight times in eight Spring Training games before hitting a single in his only plate appearance Friday evening.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSox_Giants_Devils_Nicks. Show RedSox_Giants_Devils_Nicks's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    I dont think they will. out of options and not worth a player... maybe if they just want cash but thats a big maybe 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to RedSox_Giants_Devils_Nicks' comment:

    I dont think they will. out of options and not worth a player... maybe if they just want cash but thats a big maybe 




    They already agreed on cash RSGDN

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to hill55's comment:

    The Red Sox will complete the Mike Carp acquisition by sending cash to Seattle at the end of the month, according to Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal:

    https://twitter.com/brianmacp/status/310093718344572929

    Carp had struck out eight times in eight Spring Training games before hitting a single in his only plate appearance Friday evening.



    Time to admit you were off on his value?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    The Red Sox will complete the Mike Carp acquisition by sending cash to Seattle at the end of the month, according to Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal:

    https://twitter.com/brianmacp/status/310093718344572929

    Carp had struck out eight times in eight Spring Training games before hitting a single in his only plate appearance Friday evening.

    Time to admit you were off on his value?



    Yep.

     
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