Re: Mike Carp,do the sox claim him?
posted at 2/16/2013 4:22 PM EST
In response to notin's comment:
The splits do not show it, but Carp hits RHP better than LHP.
He does have a higher K%, but no much. (24% to 23.2%)
yet somehow has a lower BABIP against RHP (.296 to .372).
Although the numbers you gave were interesting and show he isn't quite as bad vs. righties as it seems, I think the two key numbers above stand out.
First, the BABIP numbers tell me he is more lucky against lefties then unlucky against righties. This is bad news.
Second, the 24% K rate against righties is pretty bad.
When adding a LF or 1B to a top level team, you want somebody that can hit. When that player is not good defensively and can't run, he better hit a lot. And if he is borderline and is expected to be platooned, he better tear up his opposite side pitchers. A 721 OPS against righties isn't remotely interesting to me.
Your numbers indicate there will be some leveling of his splits. But mostly with his numbers against lefties coming down, which will just make his overall numbers worse.
As for his overall talent, he put up just a .832 OPS in the minors while playing 40% of his minor league career in the PCL at an average age. Compare that to Travis Shaw who has a career .884 OPS without playing in a great hitters league ever. Although Shaw was a year behind, I think they are in a similar arc, with Shaw maybe having a slight edge. The big difference between the two is that Shaw hasn't failed at the big league level yet, isn't on the 40 man, and has options. P.S.........Shaw also runs better, has better size, better K/BB rates and better defensive potential.