In response to BMav's comment:

Mike Carp's injury-plagued 2012 season dropped his career OPS+ from 119 to the 110 he currently shares with Logan Morrison.

In response to hill55's comment:

I don't think it is particularly close.  Morrison was a much more highly rated minor league prospect.  Much better career K/W.  Better road OPS.  Carp will get you very little in return, if anything.  Lomo will still cost you a legitimate prospect.

In response to BMav's comment:

 

The main idea behind Carp is to platoon him at 1st and LF. His reverse splits kind of kill that idea. I would not trade anything of value for him. That would include anybody in the Sox top 30 prospects. Not sure I even claim him off waivers.

 

If he clears waivers I might sign him to a similar deal that Overbay has. Personally, I am for eventually trading for a good young guy like Morrison.

 

The splits do not show it, but Carp hits RHP better than LHP.

 

 

He has a higher BB% (9.6% to 5.1% ) vs RHP

 

He does have a higher K%, but no much. (24% to 23.2%)

 

He has a higher line drive rate (23% to 21.4%) and higher GB rate (44.3% to 42.9%) againsy RHP, yet somehow has a lower BABIP against RHP (.296 to .372).  His splts are not real indicative, since he is hitting more line drives and ground balls, but not as many are becoming hits.

 

Carp does have a lower fly ball percentage against RHP (32.8% to 34.7%), but does hit fewer popups (9% to 14%) and homers more frequently (14% to 11.8%).

 

I still prefer Venable over Carp for left field, but Carp is not better at hitting LHP as inidcated by early numbers...

.226 Batting average, why bother. another guy who cannot hit. No one who is going to help or put up good numbers, but Ben, I mean Larry the GM will pick him up cause he is cheap. BTW Ben, Larry likes his coffee light and sweet, go get it for him.

In response to notin's comment:

The splits do not show it, but Carp hits RHP better than LHP.

 

He does have a higher K%, but no much. (24% to 23.2%)

yet somehow has a lower BABIP against RHP (.296 to .372). 

 

 

 

Although the numbers you gave were interesting and show he isn't quite as bad vs. righties as it seems, I think the two key numbers above stand out.

First, the BABIP numbers tell me he is more lucky against lefties then unlucky against righties. This is bad news.

Second, the 24% K rate against righties is pretty bad.

When adding a LF or 1B to a top level team, you want somebody that can hit. When that player is not good defensively and can't run, he better hit a lot. And if he is borderline and is expected to be platooned, he better tear up his opposite side pitchers. A 721 OPS against righties isn't remotely interesting to me.

 

Your numbers indicate there will be some leveling of his splits. But mostly with his numbers against lefties coming down, which will just make his overall numbers worse.

As for his overall talent, he put up just a .832 OPS in the minors while playing 40% of his minor league career in the PCL at an average age. Compare that to Travis Shaw who has a career .884 OPS without playing in a great hitters league ever. Although Shaw was a year behind, I think they are in a similar arc, with Shaw maybe having a slight edge. The big difference between the two is that Shaw hasn't failed at the big league level yet, isn't on the 40 man,  and has options. P.S.........Shaw also runs better, has better size, better K/BB rates and better defensive potential.

 

Shaw is not in the equation yet.  He has 110 at-bats above A-ball in his career...

Seattle probably will take the best offer for Mike Carp before Monday or Tuesday when the Mariners otherwise would need to place Carp on waivers. Alternatively, the M's could let Carp go to waivers in hopes that he'll clear waivers and be assigned to the Seattle farm system.

I'm still not sure what would be a reasonable return in a trade of Carp with his current status of designated for assignment.

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

I agree that Logan Morrison would most certainly fetch more in a trade than Mike Carp would for the reasons you listed and because of Carp's current designated-for-assignment status. However, the stats I provided suggest that Morrison might be overrated and Carp underrated.

In response to notin's comment:

 

Certainly not suggesting Shaw is an option for the big club now. Just comparing their minor league pedigree and overall talent.

In response to BMav's comment:

 

But to me the issue is LF in 2013.  I hope Nava and Sweeney can do the job, but I want an immediate upgrade there if possible...

In response to notin's comment:

Me too. But Carp is not an upgrade. Sweeney is a much better defender with a career OPS 28 points higher against righties. And most of that edge is in the more important OB average. Both played mostly in pitchers parks. Both about the same age.

Sweeney>Carp

Oh and Nava>Carp too as a platoon guy.

Hopefully we trade for X>Sweeney

 

I like Sweeeney and was glad he came back.   Of all these guysm he is the only one I would not mind seeing play LF.  I picture Nava, Gomes and Carp being a litttle too timid of the wall along the LF foul line, and letting way too many flyballs down that way land fair.  Sweeney will slide into the wall headfirst and make the play.  He might concuss himself, but he will make the play.

I see no harm in bringing Carp on board, however, and seeing what he can do.   Sweeney is on a minor league deal, and Nava has an option left, so neither needs to be released.  (Overbay can opt out on opening day if he so choses.  I won't miss him.)

Bottom line really is, if they get Carp, fine.  If they miss out or pass, it won't ruin the season...

This post has been removed.

In response to softlaw2's comment:

Of course, Overbay is not on the 40-man roster, either, so "storage space" needs to be moved to accommdate him as well.   He is reportedly interested in OF duty, but I prefer Sweeney or Nava over Overbay out there...

In response to notin's comment:

In his Sunday column, the Globe's Nick Cafardo reported that the Red Sox have discussed Mike Carp but that the Sox might not have room for Carp because of the commitment to Lyle Overbay:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/cafardo-on--2.html#disqus_thread

Carp and Overbay provide interesting career parallels in that each had a slow start at the MLB level. Through his age 26 season, Carp has an OPS+ of 110 in 608 plate appearances. Through his age 26 season, Overbay had an OPS+ of 90 in 305 plate appearances. Overbay now has a career OPS+ of 108 in 5,020 plate appearances.

In response to hill55's comment:

The big differences are 1) Carp has actually layed the OF, whereas Overbay never has.  And 2) Carp is 26 and never had a full time MLB position for a significant period of time, whereas Overbay has spent numverous seasons.   So there is potential for Carp to imprive whereas Overbay is what he is, and is probably aging towards retirement.

However, committing to one or the other is unlikely to make much difference in the Sox season this year.  They apparently do not view either as even a potential starter for a strong side of a platoon...

The Globe's Nick Cafardo reports that the Red Sox are among the clubs interested in Mike Carp:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/303635421550759936

Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik expects to complete a trade of Carp within the next 24-48 hours, according to the Milwaukee beat reporter for MLB.com:

http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/2013/02/18/brewers-have-checked-on-carp/

Carp's agent, Tom O'Connell, met Monday with Boston GM Ben Cherington at the Red Sox spring training facility, although their conversation may have centered on troubled Boston reliever Alfredo Aceves, who is another O'Connell client:

https://twitter.com/nickcafardo

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2013/02/aceves_agent_me.html

The Red Sox will complete the Mike Carp acquisition by sending cash to Seattle at the end of the month, according to Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal:

https://twitter.com/brianmacp/status/310093718344572929

Carp had struck out eight times in eight Spring Training games before hitting a single in his only plate appearance Friday evening.

I dont think they will. out of options and not worth a player... maybe if they just want cash but thats a big maybe 

In response to RedSox_Giants_Devils_Nicks' comment:

They already agreed on cash RSGDN

In response to hill55's comment:

Time to admit you were off on his value?

In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

Yep.